한국정보통신학회논문지 (Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering)

  • 제26권2호
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  • Pages.187-192
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  • 2022
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  • 2234-4772(pISSN)
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  • 2288-4165(eISSN)
한국정보통신학회 (The Korea Institute of Information and Commucation Engineering)
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코로나 확진자 수 예측을 위한 BI-LSTM과 GRU 알고리즘의 성능 비교 분석

Comparative analysis of performance of BI-LSTM and GRU algorithm for predicting the number of Covid-19 confirmed cases

  • Kim, Jae-Ho (Department of Computer Science, The University of Suwon) ;
  • Kim, Jang-Young (Department of Computer Science, The University of Suwon)
  • 투고 : 2021.11.04
  • 심사 : 2021.11.18
  • 발행 : 2022.02.28
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초록

위드 코로나의 예정 발표일이 결정되었고, 위드 코로나에 가장 중요한 조건인 백신 접종을 아직 부작용 걱정 때문에 완료하지 않은 사람들이 있다. 또한 위드 코로나로 경제는 회복될 수 있지만 감염자 수는 급증할 수 있다. 본 논문은 위드 코로나에 앞서 코로나19에 대한 경각심을 깨우고자, 코로나19를 비선형 확률과정으로 예측한다. 여기서 딥러닝의 RNN중 양방향 LSTM인 BI-LSTM와 LSTM보다 gate수를 줄인 GRU를 사용하고 이것을 train set, test set, 손실함수, 잔차분석, 정규분포, 자기 상관을 통해서 비교 분석하여 어떠한 성능이 더 좋은지 비교하고 예측한다.

Even the announcing date for the staring date of "With Corona" has been decided, still many people have not completed vaccination, the most important condition for starting the With Corona, because of concerns for its side effects. In addition, although the economy may can be recovered by the With Corona, but the number of infected people may can be surged. In this paper, in order to awaken the people for the awareness of Corona 19 in advance of the With Corona, the Corona 19 is predicted through a non-linear probability process. Here, among the deep learning RNN, BI-LSTM, which is a bidirectional LSTM, and GRU, gates decreased than LSTM have been used. And this has been compared and analyzed through train set, test set, loss function, residual analysis, normal distribution, and autocorrelation, and compared and predicted for which has a better performance.

키워드

참고문헌

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