• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term series

Search Result 870, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Predicting Raw Material Price Fluctuation Using Signal Approach: Application to Non-ferrous Metals (신호접근법을 이용한 비철금속 상품가격변동 예측모형 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Whan;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.42 no.2
    • /
    • pp.143-152
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recent raw material prices fluctuation has been unexpectedly high and that made Korean economic activities to be depressed. Because most raw material supply in Korea depends upon oversea imports, unexpected raw material price fluctuation affects Korean industrial economies through macroeconomic variables. So Korean government enforces some political measures such as demand management and the supply-security assurance as long-range policies, and reservation and general early warning system as short-range policies. In short-range policies, it is necessary to be expected short term fluctuation. Up to recently, there have been many researches and most of those researches use parametric methods or time series analyses. Because those methods and analyses often generate inadequate relations among variables, it is possible that some consistent variables are left out or the results are misunderstood. This study, therefore, is aim to mitigate those methodological problems and find the relatively appropriate model for economic explanation. So that, in this paper, by using non-parametric signal approach method mitigating some shortages of previous researches and forecasting properly short-range prices fluctuation of non-ferrous materials are presented empirically.

Spatial-temporal Variations of Nitrate Levels in Groundwater of Jeju Island, Korea: Evaluation of Long-term (1993-2015) Monitoring Data (제주도 지하수질산염 농도의 시·공간적변화 특성: 장기(1993-2015) 모니터링 자료의 평가)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Oh, Junseop;Do, Hyun-Kwon;Lee, Kyung-Jin;Hyun, Ik-Hyun;Oh, Sang-Sil;Kam, Sang-Kyu;Yun, Seong-Taek
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.51 no.1
    • /
    • pp.15-26
    • /
    • 2018
  • The spatio-temporal variations of nitrate concentrations in groundwater of Jeju Island were evaluated by an analysis of time series groundwater quality data (N = 21,568) that were collected from regional groundwater monitoring (number of wells = 4,835) for up to 20 years between 1993 and 2015. The median concentration of $NO_3-N$ is 2.5 mg/L, which is slightly higher than those reported from regional surveys in other countries. Nitrate concentrations of groundwater in wells tend to significantly vary according to different water usage (of the well), administrative districts, and topographic elevations: nitrate level is higher in low-lying agricultural and residential areas than those in high mountainous areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope analysis show that nitrate concentration in mid-mountainous areas tends to increase, possibly due to the expansion of agricultural areas toward highland. On the other hand, nitrate concentrations in the Specially Designated Groundwater Quality Protection Zones show the temporally decreasing trend, which implies the efficiency of groundwater management actions in Jeju. Proper measures for sustainable groundwater quality management are suggested in this study.

The Maintenance Process Model using BPMN Method in Public Rental Housing (BPMN 방식을 이용한 공공임대주택 유지관리 업무 프로세스 모델)

  • Park, Kyung-Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.17 no.4
    • /
    • pp.743-751
    • /
    • 2016
  • It is critical to effectively change the measures of prevention from the breakdown maintenance proceeding an apartment housing maintenance task scope. It is necessary that systematization be performed for a series of tasks, such as facility inspection, diagnosis and replacement. In addition, it is preceded by establishing a standardization for maintenance work scope. Therefore, this study examined the problems related to public rental housing maintenance work scope to manage it more systematically. In addition, the study suggests a work process section for facility repairs, long term replacement and general maintenance using one on one interviews with experts to classify the occupants, management office and head office. This study's standard work system is expected to provide fairness and transparency in addition to improving the productivity in public rental housing maintenance via an efficiency promotion plan. In addition, it is used as the basic reference for developing a system of public rental housing maintenance costs and diagnosis actions. Finally, it is necessary to create improvements that provide a more objective work system standardization throughout the analysis of the productivity data according to the work flow and the review of the occupants, management office and head office in the future applications of the pilot site.

Land Use Changes and Climate Patterns in Southeast Korea (우리나라 동남부 지역의 토지 이용과 기후 패턴 변화 분석)

  • Park, Sun-Yurp;Tak, Han-Myeong
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.47-64
    • /
    • 2013
  • Landscape structure changes over the past three decades were determined with land use and land cover(LULC) maps, and their relationships with mean air temperature time series were the analyzed for the Busan metropolitan area and South Kyeongsang Province, Korea. The geometric structures of the LULC data were quantitatively represented based on FRAGSTATS, a spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. FRAGSTATS-derived landscape metrics confirmed that there were major changes in LULC and landscape fragmentation in the region. Meteorological observation records showed that mean air temperature had increased from $14.1^{\circ}C$ in the 1990's to $14.8^{\circ}C$ in the 2000's in Busan. For South Kyeongsang Province, they increased from $13.2^{\circ}C$ to $13.9^{\circ}C$ during the same time period. These long-term temperature changes are correlated with typical spatial pattern changes of LULC in the southeastern region of the country. Spatial metrics analysis showed that urban area expanded from 9.7% to 26.8% of Busan while forest and agricultural land decreased by 9.6% and 14.9%, respectively over the past thirty years. The significant urbanization are tightly associated with deforestation, removal of agricultural land, and fast temperature increases since the 1990's. The urban area of South Kyeongsang Province rapidly increased, and it became 12 times as large as it was. The degree of temperature increases differed among three different sub-regions. The temperature increasing rate was lowest in the coastal region while the colder mountainous region had the highest figure.

A preliminary study of watertightness and salt water resistance of spray-applied membrane (뿜어붙임멤브레인의 방수성능 및 염수저항성의 기초평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Wook;Kang, Tae-Ho;Chang, Soo-Ho;Lee, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Jintae;Choi, Myung-Sik
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.283-299
    • /
    • 2017
  • The leakage of tunnel causes the long-term durability of the structures such as concrete lining to deteriorate. The cause of durability degradation can be various substances contained in groundwater such as chloride, sulphate, water, and gas. In this study, a series of test were carried out to determine the watertightness performance and the resistance to salt water of the spray-applied membrane used as non-structural rock support or as a waterproof material for tunnels. As a result, it was found that the penetration of water could occur in a specimen, and the reason was that the internal pores generated by the mixing of the liquid polymer and the powder material and the internal pores were connected by the water pressure. The tensile strength of the test specimens immersed in distilled water and saline water was found to be reduced to less than half of the tensile strength in normal condition. In addition, The elongation was measured to be higher in distilled water than in salt water. However, this result will require further investigation.

A Study on Development of Power Analysing Device for PV Module (태양전지 모듈의 발전량 분석 장치 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Chae-Joo;Kwak, Seung-Hun;Jang, Yeong-Hak;Kim, Tae-Gon;Kim, Eui-Sun;Kim, Tae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.6
    • /
    • pp.73-80
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate the relative performance of modules with changed characteristics due to long term exposure to the outdoor environment, with a specially made test device for simultaneous measurement of real time power output from the photovoltaic array, taking into account the inclined panel, direct irradiation, power being generated, temperature as well as the optimal analysis timing. In terminology description, M is an abbreviation of module and Group A, Group B are 10 modules series connection (1~10 of M), (11~20 of M) for each of them respectively. The overall mean voltage difference of M-18 with the lowest power output and M-14 with the highest output is-2.13V and it was identifiable that voltage difference was more concentrated to Group B. In addition, in case of M-2 and M-7, M-8, when compared with M-14, the overall mean voltage difference was -0.92V, -1.56 and -0.91V respectively showing the more concentration to Group A. When the temperature of module went up by $1^{\circ}C$, the mean voltage was reduced by 0.35V. For current, Group A was lower than Group B by-0.022A and the ratio of each group was 49.68% and 50.32% respectively, presumably the module with deteriorated properties were more concentrated to Group A relatively. From the comparison of relations with the comprehensive accumulation, M-2, M-7, M-8, M-16 and M-18 were those with deterioration of performance to the worst, thereby requiring precision examination. In comparative efficiency, M-14 was the most excellent one as 12.19% while M-18 as 10.53% was identified that its efficiency was comparatively rapidly reduced.

INNOVATIVE CONCEPT FOR AN ULTRA-SMALL NUCLEAR THERMAL ROCKET UTILIZING A NEW MODERATED REACTOR

  • NAM, SEUNG HYUN;VENNERI, PAOLO;KIM, YONGHEE;LEE, JEONG IK;CHANG, SOON HEUNG;JEONG, YONG HOON
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.47 no.6
    • /
    • pp.678-699
    • /
    • 2015
  • Although the harsh space environment imposes many severe challenges to space pioneers, space exploration is a realistic and profitable goal for long-term humanity survival. One of the viable and promising options to overcome the harsh environment of space is nuclear propulsion. Particularly, the Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) is a leading candidate for nearterm human missions to Mars and beyond due to its relatively high thrust and efficiency. Traditional NTR designs use typically high power reactors with fast or epithermal neutron spectrums to simplify core design and to maximize thrust. In parallel there are a series of new NTR designs with lower thrust and higher efficiency, designed to enhance mission versatility and safety through the use of redundant engines (when used in a clustered engine arrangement) for future commercialization. This paper proposes a new NTR design of the second design philosophy, Korea Advanced NUclear Thermal Engine Rocket (KANUTER), for future space applications. The KANUTER consists of an Extremely High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (EHTGR) utilizing hydrogen propellant, a propulsion system, and an optional electricity generation system to provide propulsion as well as electricity generation. The innovatively small engine has the characteristics of high efficiency, being compact and lightweight, and bimodal capability. The notable characteristics result from the moderated EHTGR design, uniquely utilizing the integrated fuel element with an ultra heat-resistant carbide fuel, an efficient metal hydride moderator, protectively cooling channels and an individual pressure tube in an all-in-one package. The EHTGR can be bimodally operated in a propulsion mode of $100MW_{th}$ and an electricity generation mode of $100MW_{th}$, equipped with a dynamic energy conversion system. To investigate the design features of the new reactor and to estimate referential engine performance, a preliminary design study in terms of neutronics and thermohydraulics was carried out. The result indicates that the innovative design has great potential for high propellant efficiency and thrust-to-weight of engine ratio, compared with the existing NTR designs. However, the build-up of fission products in fuel has a significant impact on the bimodal operation of the moderated reactor such as xenon-induced dead time. This issue can be overcome by building in excess reactivity and control margin for the reactor design.

Analysis Method for Non-Linear Finite Strain Consolidation for Soft Dredged Soil Deposit - Part II: Analysis Method and Craney Island Case Study (초연약 준설 매립지반의 비선형 유한변형 압밀해석기법 - Part II: 해석기법과 Craney Island 사례분석)

  • Choi, Hang-Seok;Kwak, Tae-Hoon;Lee, Chul-Ho;Lee, Dong-Seop;Stark, T.D.
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.27 no.11
    • /
    • pp.5-15
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper presents two analysis methods for characterizing the non-linear finite strain consolidation behavior of highly deformable dredged soil deposits along with the fundamental parameters obtained in the companion paper; that is, the zero effective stress void ratio, the non-linear relationships of void ratio-effective stress and void ratio-hydraulic conductivity. The simplified Morris's analytical solution (2002) and the widely recognized numerical program, PSDDF (primary Consolidation, Secondary Compression, and Desiccation of Dredged Fill) for both single and double drainage conditions are adopted in this paper to verify a series of laboratory experiments for self-weight consolidation of the Incheon clay and Kaolinite. The comparisons show that the analysis methods proposed herein can properly simulate the long-term non-linear finite strain consolidation behavior for dredged soils in the field. In addition, a case study for the artificial Craney Island has been conducted to illustrate the importance of obtaining appropriate non-linear finite strain consolidation parameters and the applicability of PSDDF in promoting dredged soil disposal.

The Effect of Drinking Water Fluoride on the Fine Structure of the Ameloblast in the Fetal Rat (음용수 불소가 흰쥐태아 법랑모세포의 미세구조에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Do-Seon;Jeong, Moon-Jin;Yoe, Sung-Moon
    • Applied Microscopy
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.189-193
    • /
    • 1999
  • The response of ameloblast to long term (3 weeks) exposure to fluoride was examined in continuously erupting mandibular incisors of pregnancy rats as compared to control rats receiving a similar diet (Teklad L-356) but no sodium fluoride in there drinking water. Rats were started on water containing 0 ppm, 100 ppm, 200 ppm, and 300 ppm NaF at the beginning of pregnancy. To examine on the ultrastructural changes of the ameloblast, electron microscopy was used. The results indicated that rat incisors expressed two major changes in normal amelogenesis that could be attributed to chronic fluoride treatment. The fluoride produces marked alteration in the fine structure of ameloblast from teeth of young rats, such as large confluent distensions of the endoplasmic reticulum and swelling of isolated mitochondria, in particular on the morphology of the rough-surfaced endoplasmic reticulum. A graded series of alterations to these organelles were produced, and the severity of the changes would seem to be dependent on dose and time. This experimental data suggested that exposure prolonged of animal to high level of fluoride appears to induce morphological changes in the normal appositional growth and initial mineralization of enamel created during amelogenesis.

  • PDF

Implementation of Barcelona Basic Model into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D (TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D의 Barcelona Basic Model 해석 모듈 개발)

  • Lee, Changsoo;Lee, Jaewon;Kim, Minseop;Kim, Geon Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-62
    • /
    • 2020
  • In this study, Barcelona Basic Model (BBM) was implemented into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D for the numerical analysis of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) behavior of unsaturated soils and the prediction of long-term behaviors. Similar to the methodology described in a previous study for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH-FLAC, the User Defined Model (UDM) of FLAC based on the Modified Cam Clay Model (MCCM) and the FISH function of FLAC3D were used to extend the existing MCCM module in FLAC3D for the implementation of BBM into TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D. In the developed BBM module in TOUGH2-MP/FLAC3D, the plastic strains due to change in suction increase (SI) in addition to mean effective stress are calculated. In addition to loading-collapse (LC) yield surface, suction increase (SI) yield surface is changed by hardening rules in the developed BBM module. Several numerical simulations were conducted to verify and validate the implementation of BBM: using an example presented in the FLAC3D manual for the standard MCCM, simulation results using COMSOL, and experimental data presented in SKB Reports. In addition, the developed BBM analysis module was validated by simultaneously performing a series of modeling tests that were performed for the validation of the Quick tools developed for the purpose of effectively deriving BBM parameters, and by comparing the Quick tools and Code_Bright results reported in a previous study.