• Title/Summary/Keyword: Long-term scenarios

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LONG-TERM VARIATION STUDY OF CATACLYSMIC VARIABLES WITH PALOMAR TRANSIENT FACTORY

  • YANG, MICHAEL TING-CHANG;CHOU, YI;HU, CHIN-PING;SU, YI-HAO;HSIEH, HUNG-EN;LIN, CHING-PING;CHUANG, PO-SHENG;LIAO, NAI-HUI
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.193-195
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    • 2015
  • The Palomar Transient Factory is a project making use of a Schmidt 48 inch telescope located on the Palomar Mountain, which is surveying the sky with dynamical cadences. It was deployed in 2009 and the observed sky region is over 1200 square degrees. We have studied the long-term periodic variabilities of the known galactic cataclysmic variables (CVs). More than 20 of the sources had been found to have long term periodic signals, ranging from several tens of days to several hundreds of days. Some possible scenarios are proposed to explain the results, such as a magnetic field change of the companion star, precession of the accretion disk, triple systems and superoutburst cycles. Some preliminary discussion will be presented in this article.

A Study of PCI (Physical Cell Identification) Assignment in LTE (Long Term Evolution) SON (Self-Organization Network) (LTE 자가 구성 네트워크망에서 물리적 셀 ID할당 방법 연구)

  • Yang, Mochan
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.941-946
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, the author analyzed the PCI (Physical Cell Identification) allocation methods in the LTE (Long Term Evolution) SON (Self Organization Network) environment. A variety of techniques have been proposed for how to allocate PCI, and the LTE standard fundamentally explained that collision between a cell and neighbor cells arise while a cell assign the PCI. Therefore, in this paper, the author examined the scenarios of PCI collision, weak collision, and confusion proposed by LTE specification. In addition, the cell central approach and the distributed approach were discussed as solutions for each scenario. In this paper, the author reviewed the approach of graphic coloring technique which was studied recently and explained the strategy of central approach.

Geological Factor Analysis for Evaluating the Long-term Safety Performance of Natural Barriers in Deep Geological Repository System of High-level Radioactive Waste (지질학적 심지층 처분지 내 천연방벽의 고준위 방사성 폐기물 장기 처분 안전성 평가를 위한 지질학적 인자 분석)

  • Hyeongmok Lee;Jiho Jeong;Jaesung Park;Subi Lee;Suwan So;Jina Jeong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.533-545
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    • 2023
  • In this study, an investigation was conducted on the features, events, and processes (FEP) that could impact the long-term safety of the natural barriers constituting high-level radioactive waste geological repositories. The FEP list was developed utilizing the IFEP list 3.0 provided by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) as foundational data, supplemented by geological investigations and research findings from leading countries in this field. A total of 49 FEPs related to the performance of the natural barrier were identified. For each FEP, detailed definitions, classifications, impacts on long-term safety, significance in domestic conditions, and feasibility of quantification were provided. Moreover, based on the compiled FEP list, three scenarios that could affect the long-term safety of the disposal facility were developed. Geological factors affecting the performance of the natural barrier in each scenario were selected and their relationships were visualized. The constructed FEP list and the visualization of interrelated factors in various scenarios are anticipated to provide essential information for selecting and organizing factors that must be considered in the development of mathematical models for quantitatively evaluating the long-term safety of deep geological repositories. In addition, these findings could be effectively utilized in establishing criteria related to the key performance of natural barriers for the confirmation of repository sites.

한국과 일본의 장기 저탄소 에너지 시나리오에 대한 메타 리뷰

  • Park, Nyeon-Bae
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.543-572
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    • 2012
  • This paper compared historical energy use from 2000 between Japan and Korea and reviewed literature of mid-and long-term low carbon energy scenarios and plans in both countries released since 2000. In terms of energy use pattern, there are similarities between Korea and Japan; high dependence on energy imports, high proportion of manufacturing industry among OECD countries, closed electricity system disconnected with foreign countries, and high proportion of nuclear power generation with low proportion of renewable electricity despite of high potential of renewable energy. Differences are as follows; decreasing trend in Japan and increasing trend in Korea in terms of energy demand and supply, difficulty of exchanging electricity between regions in Japan unlike Korea, and prospect of nuclear power, that is, curtailing in Japan while expanding in Korea according to governmental plan. Energy Basic Plan in both countries established before nuclear accident in Fukushima required expanding about two times of nuclear energy by 2030, while civil society's energy scenarios suggested reducing energy demand, phasing-out nuclear power, and expanding renewable energy. This paper will serve as a base for future studies about long-term energy scenarios and plan in Japan and Korea.

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An Analysis of Long-Term Scenarios for The GHG Emissions Projections Considering Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Change (경제성장과 산업구조 변화에 따른 장기 온실가스 배출량 전망 시나리오 분석)

  • Kwon, Seung Moon;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2016
  • Both economic growth and industrial structure have great influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study analyzed long-term scenarios for GHG emissions projections considering economic growth and industry value added change. In consideration of 3 GDP and 3 industry value added outlook, total 9 scenarios were set; 'Assembly Industry Baseline(AI)', 'Assembly KEIT industry(AK)', 'Assembly Advanced Country industry(AA)', 'KDI Industry Baseline(KI)', 'KDI KEIT industry(KK)', 'KDI Advanced Country industry(KA)', 'OECD Industry Baseline(OI)', 'OECD KEIT industry(OK)', and 'OECD Advanced Country industry(OA)' scenarios. In consideration of the GDP increase rate and industry value added outlook, it is estimated that AI scenario's GHG emissions would be 777 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. On the other hand, in the case of OA scenario, GHG emissions would be 560.2 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. Differences between AI scenario's and OA scenario's were 216.8 million tons of $CO_2eq$. It can be identified by that GDP and industry value added change have great influence on GHG emissions. In view of the fact that Korea's amount of GHG emission reduction targets in 2030 were 218.6 million tons of $CO_2eq$ that the result of this research could give us valuable insight.

Long-term Effects on Forest Biomass under Climate Change Scenarios Using LANDIS-II - A case study on Yoengdong-gun in Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea - (산림경관천이모델(LANDIS-II)를 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 산림의 생물량 장기변화 추정 연구 -충청북도 영동군 학산면 봉소리 일대 산림을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Young-Eun;Choi, Jae-Yong;Kim, Whee-Moon;Kim, Seoung-Yeal;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2019
  • This study applied the LANDIS-II model to the forest vegetation of the study area in Yeongdong-gun, Korea to identify climate effects on ecosystems of forest vegetation. The main purpose of the study is to examine the long-term changes in forest aboveground biomass(AGB) under three different climate change scenarios; The baseline climate scenario is to maintain the current climate condition; the RCP 4.5 scenario is a stabilization scenario to employ of technologies and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; the RCP 8.5 scenario is increasing greenhouse gas emissions over time representative with 936ppm of $CO_2$ concentration by 2100. The vegetation survey and tree-ring analysis were conducted to work out the initial vegetation maps and data for operation of the LANDIS model. Six types of forest vegetation communities were found including Quercus mongolica - Pinus densiflora community, Quercus mongolica community, Pinus densiflora community, Quercus variabilis-Quercus acutissima community, Larix leptolepis afforestation and Pinus koraiensis afforestation. As for changes in total AGB under three climate change scenarios, it was found that RCP 4.5 scenario featured the highest rate of increase in AGB whereas RCP 8.5 scenario yielded the lowest rate of increase. These results suggest that moderately elevated temperatures and $CO_2$ concentrations helped the biomass flourish as photosynthesis and water use efficiency increased, but huge increase in temperature ($above+4.0^{\circ}C$) has resulted in the increased respiration with increasing temperature. Consequently, Species productivity(Biomass) of trees decrease as the temperature is elevated drastically. It has been confirmed that the dominant species in all scenarios was Quercus mongolica. Like the trends shown in the changes of total AGB, it revealed the biggest increase in the AGB of Quercus mongolica under the RCP 4.5 scenario. AGB of Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis decreased in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios after 2050 but have much higher growth rates of the AGB starting from 2050 under the baseline scenario. Under all scenarios, the AGB of coniferous species was eventually perished in 2100. In particular they were extinguished in early stages of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. This is because of natural selection of communities by successions and the failure to adapt to climate change. The results of the study could be expected to be effectively utilized to predict changes of the forest ecosystems due to climate change and to be used as basic data for establishing strategies for adaptation climate changes and the management plans for forest vegetation restoration in ecological restoration fields.

Uncertainties estimation of AOGCM-based climate scenarios for impact assessment on water resources (수자원 영향평가를 위한 기후변화 시나리오의 불확실성 평가)

  • Park E-Hyung;Im Eun-Soon;Kwon Won-Tae;Lee Eun-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.138-142
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    • 2005
  • The change of precipitation and temperature due to the global. warming eventually caused the variation of water availability in terms of potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. In this reason national long-term water resource planning should be considered the effect of climate change. Study of AOGCM-based scenario to proposed the plausible future states of the climate system has become increasingly important for hydrological impact assessment. Future climate changes over East Asia are projected from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) method (Min et al. 2004). MME method is used to reduce the uncertainty of individual models. However, the uncertainty increases are larger over the small area than the large area. It is demonstrated that the temperature increases is larger over continental area than oceanic area in the 21st century.

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Prediction of reservoir sedimentation: A case study of Pleikrong Reservoir

  • Thu Hien Nguyen;XuanKhanh Do
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.36-36
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    • 2023
  • Sedimentation is a natural process that occurs in all reservoirs. Sedimentation problem reduces the storage capacity of the reservoir and limits its ability to provide water for various uses, such as irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control. Therefore, predicting reservoir sedimentation is important for ensuring the efficient operation and sedimentation management of a reservoir and . In this study, the HECRAS model was applied to predict longitudinal distribution of deposited sediment in the Pleikrong reservoir to 2050. Different scenarios was considered: (i) no climate change, (ii) climate change (under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and (iii) climate change and land use change (followed land use planning of the watershed). The computation results with different scenarios were analyses and compared. The results show that the reservoir reduced storage volume's rate and sedimentation proceed toward to the dam in the case of climate change is faster than in the case of no climate change. Analyses also indicates that following the land used planning could also improve the long-term problem of the reservoir sedimentation. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable plan of sediment management for the Pleikrong reservoir.

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Impact Assessment of Vegetation Carbon Absorption and Economic Valuation Under Long-term Non-executed Urban Park Development (장기미집행공원 개발에 따른 도시 식생 탄소 흡수량에 미치는 영향 및 경제적 가치 평가)

  • Sung, Woong-Gi;Choi, Jae-Yeon;Yu, Jae-Jin;Kim, Dong-Woo;Son, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.361-371
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    • 2020
  • Since the implementation of the sunset law in 2020, concerns have been raised over the reckless development of long-term non-executed urban parks. In this study, the FSDAF method and CASA-NPP model were used to evaluate the annual average NPP of long-term non-executed urban parks in Seoul. Based on this, the carbon loss and economic value were assessed under five development scenarios. The total NPP value of long-term non-executed urban parks, except for the greenbelt area in Seoul, was 4,892.18 t C. In the first scenario, the NPP and cost were 4,892.18 t C of vegetation carbon and 1.18 billion won, 2,548.55 t C of vegetation carbon and 615 million won in the second scenario, 238.94 t C of vegetation carbon and 58 million won in the third scenario, 848.38 t C of vegetation carbon and 205 million won in the fourth scenario, and 1,596.00 t C of vegetation carbon and 385 million won in the fifth scenario. These results are meaningful for evaluating vegetation carbon and economic value loss according to five different development scenarios. The results of this study are expected to be useful for the preparation of measures to minimize the impact of the development of long-term non-executed urban parks.