An Analysis of Long-Term Scenarios for The GHG Emissions Projections Considering Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Change

경제성장과 산업구조 변화에 따른 장기 온실가스 배출량 전망 시나리오 분석

Both economic growth and industrial structure have great influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study analyzed long-term scenarios for GHG emissions projections considering economic growth and industry value added change. In consideration of 3 GDP and 3 industry value added outlook, total 9 scenarios were set; 'Assembly Industry Baseline(AI)', 'Assembly KEIT industry(AK)', 'Assembly Advanced Country industry(AA)', 'KDI Industry Baseline(KI)', 'KDI KEIT industry(KK)', 'KDI Advanced Country industry(KA)', 'OECD Industry Baseline(OI)', 'OECD KEIT industry(OK)', and 'OECD Advanced Country industry(OA)' scenarios. In consideration of the GDP increase rate and industry value added outlook, it is estimated that AI scenario's GHG emissions would be 777 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. On the other hand, in the case of OA scenario, GHG emissions would be 560.2 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. Differences between AI scenario's and OA scenario's were 216.8 million tons of $CO_2eq$. It can be identified by that GDP and industry value added change have great influence on GHG emissions. In view of the fact that Korea's amount of GHG emission reduction targets in 2030 were 218.6 million tons of $CO_2eq$ that the result of this research could give us valuable insight.