• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.8
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• pp.953-963
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• 2013

Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. Forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using statistical methods based on hydrometeorological data. Predictors which is used to forecast seasonal inflow to Andong dam are selected from southern oscillation index, sea surface temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height data in northern hemisphere. Predictors are selected by the following procedure. Primary predictors sets are obtained, and then final predictors are determined from the sets. The primary predictor sets for each season are identified using cross correlation and mutual information. The final predictors are identified using partial cross correlation and partial mutual information. In each season, there are three selected predictors. The values are determined using bootstrapping technique considering a specific significance level for predictor selection. Seasonal inflow forecasting is performed by multiple linear regression analysis using the selected predictors for each season, and the results of forecast using cross validation are assessed. Multiple linear regression analysis is performed using SAS. The results of multiple linear regression analysis are assessed by mean squared error and mean absolute error. And contingency table is established and assessed by Heidke skill score. The assessment reveals that the forecasts by multiple linear regression analysis are better than the reference forecasts.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.733-744
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• 2019

Wind speed forecasting is critical for a variety of engineering tasks, such as wind energy harvesting, scheduling of a wind power system, and dynamic control of structures (e.g., wind turbine, bridge, and building). Wind speed, which has characteristics of random, nonlinear and uncertainty, is difficult to forecast. Nowadays, machine learning approaches (generalized regression neural network (GRNN), back propagation neural network (BPNN), and extreme learning machine (ELM)) are widely used for wind speed forecasting. In this study, two schemes are proposed to improve the forecasting performance of machine learning approaches. One is that optimization algorithms, i.e., cross validation (CV), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO), are used to automatically find the optimal model parameters. The other is that the combination of different machine learning methods is proposed by finite mixture (FM) method. Specifically, CV-GRNN, GA-BPNN, PSO-ELM belong to optimization algorithm-assisted machine learning approaches, and FM is a hybrid machine learning approach consisting of GRNN, BPNN, and ELM. The effectiveness of these machine learning methods in wind speed forecasting are fully investigated by one-year field monitoring data, and their performance is comprehensively compared.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.94-102
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• 2002

In this paper, we present a forecasting model for the spectrum demand which will be used for the mid/long-term spectrum forecasting in Korea. In specific, we present the bottom-up model with considering the customer not the previous top-down method. The Proposed model consists of service definition. classification of service characteristics, drawing representative service characteristic , forecasting of service demand, mapping with spectrum resource, verification and spectrum forecasting. The carried actions in each step is described in detail. For the validation of the model an example for the PCS environments is shown. traverse stepping stones for a variety of legitimate reasons.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.461-475
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• 2024

A reliable wind speed forecasting method is crucial for the applications in wind engineering. In this study, the generalized S-transform (GST) is innovatively applied for wind speed forecasting to uncover the time-frequency characteristics in the non-stationary wind speed data. The improved grey wolf optimizer (IGWO) is employed to optimize the adjustable parameters of GST to obtain the best time-frequency resolution. Then a hybrid method based on IGWO-optimized GST is proposed to validate the effectiveness and superiority for multi-step non-stationary wind speed forecasting. The historical wind speed is chosen as the first input feature, while the dynamic time-frequency characteristics obtained by IGWO-optimized GST are chosen as the second input feature. Comparative experiment with six competitors is conducted to demonstrate the best performance of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and stability. The superiority of the GST compared to other time-frequency analysis methods is also discussed by another experiment. It can be concluded that the introduction of IGWO-optimized GST can deeply exploit the time-frequency characteristics and effectively improving the prediction accuracy.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.222-232
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• 2022

In this study we investigated the characteristics of long-term tidal constituents based on 30 tidal gauge data along the coasts of Korea and its the effects on total water level (TWL) forecasts. The results show that the solar annual (Sa) and semiannual (Ssa) tides were dominant among long-term tidal constituents, and they are relatively large in western coast of Korea peninsula. To investigate the effect of long-term tidal constituents on TWL forecasts, we produced predicted tides in 2021 with and without long-term tidal constituents. The TWL forecasts with and without long-term tidal constituents are then calculated by adding surge forecasts into predicted tides. Comparing with the TWL without long-term tidal constituents, the results with long-term tidal constituents reveals small bias in summer and relatively large negative bias in winter. It is concluded that the large error found in winter generally caused by double-counting of meteorological factors in predicted tides and surge forecasts. The predicted surge for 2021 based on the harmonic analysis shows seasonality, and it reduces the large negative bias shown in winter when it subtracted from the TWL forecasts with long-term tidal constituents.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2019

Recently, demand forecasting techniques have been actively studied due to interest in stable power supply with surging power demand, and increase in spread of smart meters that enable real-time power measurement. In this study, we proceeded the deep learning prediction model experiments which learns actual measured power usage data of home and outputs the forecasting result. And we proceeded pre-processing with moving average method. The predicted value made by the model is evaluated with the actual measured data. Through this forecasting, it is possible to lower the power supply reserve ratio and reduce the waste of the unused power. In this paper, we conducted experiments on three types of networks: Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and we evaluate the results of each scheme. Evaluation is conducted with following method: MSE(Mean Squared Error) method and MAE(Mean Absolute Error).

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.113-119
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• 1991

In the present study, a methodology has been established for water budget analysis of a river basin for which monthyl rainfall and evaporation data are the only available hydrologic data. The monthly rainfall data were first converted into monthyl runoff data by an empirical formula from which long-term runoff data were generated by a stochastic generation mothod. Thomas-Fiering model. Based on the generated long-term data low flow frequency analysis was made for each of the oberved and generated data set, the low flow series of each data set being taken as the water supply for budget analysis. The water demands for various water utilization were projected according to the standard method and the net water consumption computed there of. With the runoff series of the driest year of each generated data set as an input water budget computation was made through the composite reservoirs comprised of small reserviors existing in the basin by deficit-supply method. The water deficit computed through the reservior operation study showed that the deficit radically increases as the return period of low flow becomes large. This indicates that the long-term runoff data generated by stochastic model are a necessity for a reliable water shortage forecasting to cope with the long-term water resourse planning of a river basin. F.E.M. program (ADINA) is also presented herein.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2020

The study was conducted with funding from the government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs) in 2018 with support from the Agricultural, Food, and Rural Affairs Agency, 318069-03-HD040, and in based on artificial intelligence-based HPAI spread analysis and patterning. The model that is actively used in time series and text mining recently is LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory Models) model utilizing deep learning model structure. The LSTM model is a model that emerged to resolve the Long-Term Dependency Problem that occurs during the Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT) process of RNN. LSTM models have resolved the problem of forecasting very well using variable sequence data, and are still widely used.In this paper study, we used the data of the Call Detailed Record (CDR) provided by KT to identify the migration path of people who are expected to be closely related to the virus. Introduce the results of predicting the path of movement by learning the LSTM model using the path of the person concerned. The results of this study could be used to predict the route of HPAI propagation and to select routes or areas to focus on quarantine and to reduce HPAI spread.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.563-577
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• 2017

As the uncertainty of precipitation increases due to climate change, seasonal forecasting and the use of weather forecasts become essential for efficient water resources management. In this study, the categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts implemented by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since June 2014 was evaluated using assessment indicators of Hit Rate, Reliability Diagram, and Relative Operating Curve (ROC) and a technique for obtaining quantitative precipitation estimates based on probabilistic forecasts was proposed. The probabilistic long-term forecasts showed its maximum predictability of 48% and the quantified precipitation estimates were closely matched with actual observations; maximum correlation coefficient (R) in predictability evaluation for 100% accurate and actual weather forecasts were 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. A precipitation quantification approach utilizing probabilistic forecasts proposed in this study is expected to enable water management considering the uncertainty of precipitation. This method is also expected to be a useful tool for supporting decision-making in the long-term planning for water resources management and reservoir operations.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.264-271
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• 2023

Environmental crises caused by climate change and human-induced disturbances have become urgent challenges to the sustainability of human beings. These issues can be addressed based on a data-driven understanding and forecasting of ecosystem responses to environmental changes. In this study, we introduce a long-term ecological monitoring system in Korean Long-Term Ecological Research (KLTER), and a plan for the Korean Ecological Observatory Network (KEON). KLTER has been conducted since 2004 and has yielded valuable scientific results. However, the KLTER approach has limitations in data integration and coordinated observations. To overcome these limitations, we developed a KEON plan focused on multidisciplinary monitoring of the physiochemical, meteorological, and biological components of ecosystems to deepen process-based understanding of ecosystem functions and detect changes. KEON aims to answer nationwide and long-term ecological questions by using a standardized monitoring approach. We are preparing three types of observatories: two supersites depending on the climate-vegetation zones, three local sites depending on the ecosystem types, and two mobile deployment platforms to act on urgent ecological issues. The main observation topics were species diversity, population dynamics, biogeochemistry (carbon, methane, and water cycles), phenology, and remote sensing. We believe that KEON can address environmental challenges and play an important role in ecological observations through partnerships with international observatories.