• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.52.3-52.3
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• 2019

We investigate a relative contribution from short to long-term flaring rate to predicting M and X-class flare probabilities. In this study, we consider magnetic parameters summarizing distribution and non-potentiality by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseimic and Magnetic Imager and flare list by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. A short-term rate is the number of major flares that occurred in an given active region (AR) within one day before the prediction time. A mid-term rate is a mean flaring rate from the AR appearance day to one day before the prediction time. A long-term rate is a rate determined from a relationship between magnetic parameter values of ARs and their flaring rates from 2010 May to 2015 April. In our model, the predicted rate is given by the combination of weighted three rates satisfying that their sum of the weights is 1. We calculate Brier skill scores (BSSs) for investigating weights of three terms giving the best prediction performance using ARs from 2015 April to 2018 April. The BSS (0.22) of the model with only long-term is higher than that with only short-term or mid-term. When short or mid-term are considered additionally, the BSSs are improved. Our model has the best performance (BSS = 0.29) when all three terms are considered, and their relative contribution from short to long-term rate are 19%, 23%, and 58%, respectively. This model seems to be more effective when predicting active solar ARs having several major flares.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.12
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• pp.123-129
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• 2020

This scholarly work is an effort to capture the effects of oil prices on the actual exchange rate between dollar and rupee. This is done with reference to the U.S. dollar as oil prices are marked in USD (U.S. Dollar) in the international market, and India is among the top five importers of oil. Using monthly data from January 2001 to May 2020. The study used the real GDP, money supply, short-term interest rate difference between two countries, and inflation apart from the crude oil prices per barrel as the factors that help define the exchange rate. The analysis, through cointegration and vector error correction method (VECM), suggests long and short-run causality amid prices of oil and the rate of exchange fluctuations. Oil prices are found to be negatively related to the exchange rate in the long term but positively related in the short term. The result of the Wald test also indicates the short-run causation from the short-term interest rate and the prices of crude oil towards the exchange rate. The present study shows that oil prices are evidence of the existence of short-term and long-term driving associations with short-term interest rates and exchange rates.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.151-176
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• 2023

This paper critically examines the role performance of local distributors within the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) model, while also considering the moderating influence of market competition on the organism (O) and response (R) elements. Adopting a holistic approach, the SOR model provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing how external stimuli, including distributive, procedural, and interaction unfairness, interact with internal psychological processes, such as perceived unfairness, to shape the long-term orientation of importing agents. Moreover, this study acknowledges the pivotal role of market competition in the operational context of local distributors. It posits that competitive market dynamics play a crucial role in intensifying the relationship between behavioral factors and the long-term orientation of distributors, thereby revealing contingent effects within the SOR model. Through the exploration of these dynamics, this study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the interplay among external stimuli, internal psychological processes, and market competition within the SOR framework, advancing our knowledge in this field.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.19-34
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• 2008

IT investment is usually very costly and takes a long time to get the results out of investment. However, most of currently available evaluation methods for IT investment are based upon short-term effects, hence their results are not fully trustworthy. In addition, those methods commonly consider only financial aspects such as ROI. For more reliable evaluation, it is necessary to consider non-financial factors such as system utilization, customer satisfaction, public relations, and so on, as well as financial factors. In this research, we propose an evaluation method that can evaluate both financial and non-financial aspects on a long-term base. For this purpose, we employed the research results developed in System dynamics and Balanced scorecard. System dynamics is useful in analyzing long term behavior of a given system, and Balanced scorecard is useful for evaluating both financial and non-financial aspects. We demonstrated the usefulness of our method by applying it to the evaluation of RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) investment in a distribution and retail industry. From this application, we found that RFID investment may not be rewarding in the short term, but is sure to be returning the income relative to its investment in the long run.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.81-102
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• 2009

Based on various employment and technology data in the cultural sector from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s in Seoul, Korea, this research examines whether technology- and human resource-oriented programs exert significant impact on creative manpower, R&D technology level and tolerance. After briefly introducing Seoul's trends in the culture industry, it tries to explain major reinforcing and balancing loops. The stock-flow diagram of the culture industry in Seoul is applied to estimate relative effectiveness of technology- and human resource-oriented cultural programs cultural programs. Judging from a series of simulated experiments, technology-oriented cultural programs are essential to increase creative manpower and R&D technology level in the short term. For the first half of research period, this research finds that human resource-oriented cultural programs put forth minimal impact, if they even exist at all. The trends, however, are reversed in the long term: Both size of creative manpower and R&D technology level absolutely depend on human resource-oriented cultural programs in the second half.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.63-68
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• 2009

Construction Performance measurement and management has been interested by construction practitioners. However, current construction project management practices are related to short-term improvement plans rather than long-term and systematic approaches based upon performance analysis. AR a result, there is a need for developing of a collaborative plan over project life cycle. Therefore, this paper reviews extensive literature and proposes the construction performance estimating model using a system dynamics. The paper proposes casual maps for planning, design, procurement, and construction phases. Each casual map includes all performance indicators and factors that impact on performance directly or indirectly. These casual maps that were developed by system thinking will enhance the understanding of the relationships among performances and factors. After further data gathering, these models can be used to estimate construction performance and eventually these will save project costs and shorten project schedule.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.351-374
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• 2005

This study examines dynamics of poverty in Korea, focusing on poverty duration and its determinants. Data come from Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS), 1998-2003. KLIPS is a longitudinal survey of 5,000 families and their members which are representative of urban residents in Korea. Respondents of KLIPS annually report detailed information on their income, economic activities, and other socio-economic characteristics. This study use poverty exit probabilities to generate distributions of spell lengths, following Bane and Ellwood(1986)'s methodology. This study finds a high level of poverty exit rates in Korea. About three quarters of those beginning a poverty spell exit from poverty within two years. Only 14.3 percent of all the poverty spells consist of long spells which persists five years or more. Yet, a different picture emerges when spells of the poor persons at a given time are analysed. Persistent poor occupy a considerable share of all the poor. Almost 50 percent of those who would be in poverty at a given time are in the midst of poverty spells lasting five years or more. When repeat spells of poverty are also included in the analyses, the proportion of long-term poor increases further. 63 percent of persons poor at a given time are long-termers. The majority of long-term poor are members of families headed by the aged. They show both a low level of poverty exit rates and a high level of reentry rates, and thus are most likely to experience long-term poverty. In the first place, they occupy a substantial share of all the poor. The second who are likely to be poor longer is members of families headed by non-aged women. Researchers have recentlty paid much attention to the working poor who have increased since the economic crisis in 1997. Yet, it is very likely that families headed by non-aged male who largely consist of the working poor temporarily experience poverty. Findings for this study suggest that further studies and policy proposals addressing persistent poverty are necessary.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.21-23
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• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup rates when control rod and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of UCN 3 were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.567-569
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• 2005

NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by the concentration of xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup states when control rods and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of the Korea Next Generation PWR were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and the developed model seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.131-134
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• 2000

Forest vegetation in Korea can be largely divided into warm temperate, cool temperate and frigid forest zone. The cool temperate forest zone of them occupies the largest part of the Korean peninsula and it is generally divided into three subdivisions such as northern, central and southern subzone. The Forestry Research Institute established three long-term ecological research sites at Kwangnung Experiment Forest in the central subzone of the cool temperate forest zone, at the Mt. Kyebangsan Forest in the northern subzone of the cool temperate forest zone. and at the Mt. Keumsan Forest in the warm temperate forest zone. The objectives of long-term ecological research in the Forestry Research Institute, Korea are to study long-term changes of the forest ecosystems in energy fluxes, water and nutrient cycling, forest stand structure, biological diversity, to quantify nutrient budgets and fluxes among forest ecosystem compartments and to integrate ecological data with a GIS - assisted model. To achieve the objectives, forest stand dynamics. environmental changes in soil properties, stream water quality, nutrient cycling, air pollution and biological diversity have been investigated and plant phonology as an indicator of climate change has been monitored in the LTER sites.