Poverty Dynamics in Korea: Poverty Duration and its Determinants

빈곤의 동태적 분석: 빈곤지속기간과 그 결정요인

This study examines dynamics of poverty in Korea, focusing on poverty duration and its determinants. Data come from Korean Labor and Income Panel Study(KLIPS), 1998-2003. KLIPS is a longitudinal survey of 5,000 families and their members which are representative of urban residents in Korea. Respondents of KLIPS annually report detailed information on their income, economic activities, and other socio-economic characteristics. This study use poverty exit probabilities to generate distributions of spell lengths, following Bane and Ellwood(1986)'s methodology. This study finds a high level of poverty exit rates in Korea. About three quarters of those beginning a poverty spell exit from poverty within two years. Only 14.3 percent of all the poverty spells consist of long spells which persists five years or more. Yet, a different picture emerges when spells of the poor persons at a given time are analysed. Persistent poor occupy a considerable share of all the poor. Almost 50 percent of those who would be in poverty at a given time are in the midst of poverty spells lasting five years or more. When repeat spells of poverty are also included in the analyses, the proportion of long-term poor increases further. 63 percent of persons poor at a given time are long-termers. The majority of long-term poor are members of families headed by the aged. They show both a low level of poverty exit rates and a high level of reentry rates, and thus are most likely to experience long-term poverty. In the first place, they occupy a substantial share of all the poor. The second who are likely to be poor longer is members of families headed by non-aged women. Researchers have recentlty paid much attention to the working poor who have increased since the economic crisis in 1997. Yet, it is very likely that families headed by non-aged male who largely consist of the working poor temporarily experience poverty. Findings for this study suggest that further studies and policy proposals addressing persistent poverty are necessary.

본 연구는 한국노동패널조사, 1998-2003 자료를 이용하여 빈곤지속기간과 이에 관련된 요인을 분석하였다. 본 연구의 발견에 따르면 우리나라에서는 빈곤에 진입한 사람들의 4분의 3 정도가 2년 안에 빈곤을 탈피하는 정도로 매우 활발한 빈곤탈출양상이 나타난다. 그러나 한 시점에서의 빈곤층을 볼 경우에는 장기빈곤층이 무시할 수 없는 비중을 차지한다. 5년 이상의 장기 빈곤층이 전체 빈곤층의 50%를 차지하며 10년 이상의 최장기 빈곤층도 25%를 넘어선다. 반복빈곤을 분석에 포함하는 경우 장기빈곤층의 비중은 더욱 증가한다. 장기빈곤층의 대표적 집단은 노인가구이다. 장기빈곤의 경향이 강한 다음 집단은 비노인 여성가구주 가구이다. 90년대 후반 경제위기 이래로 근로빈곤층의 증가가 커다란 사회적 관심의 대상이 되었지만 이들의 주력을 차지하는 비노인 남성가구주 가구의 대다수는 일시적으로 빈곤을 경험하는 단기빈곤층인 것으로 보인다.