• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.149-182
• /
• 2007

This study examines the determinants of the long-run stock price performance of the firms that granted stock options between 1997 and 2002. We divide the sample into the firms run by the owner and those run by the professional manager. If the primary reason for granting stock options is reduction of the agency costs between the manager and shareholders, the effect of stock options is likely to be more pronounced in the firms run by the professional manager. We find that the long-run abnormal returns of the firms run by the professional manager are negatively associated with the shareholdings by the manager and the book-to-market value and are positively associated with the earnings growth and the size of the outstanding stock options. In contrast, the long-run abnormal returns of the firms run by the owner are negatively associated with the cash flows rate and the sales growth rate and are positively associated with the firm size. This is consistent with the argument that the agency costs arising from the conflicts between the manager and shareholders are an important determinant of the post-stock option granting long-run stock price performance only in the firms run by the professional manager. The results also suggest that stock options in the firms run by the owner are likely to be used for the purposes such as additional compensation, a signaling device, a means that reduce the agency costs within firms.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.99-110
• /
• 2021

This study aims to examine empirically the industry and economic fundamental factors that affect the stock prices of the leading palm oil company in Indonesia. The dynamics of stock price are analyzed using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model both for symmetric and asymmetric effects. The data used in this study are monthly data for the period from 2008:01 to 2020:03. In the long run, the company stock price moves in line with the competitor company stock price at the current time. The palm oil price has a positive effect on the stock price. Meanwhile, inflation negatively affects the stock price in the short run. The estimated equilibrium correction coefficient indicates a reasonably quick correction of the distortion of the stock price equilibrium in monthly dynamics. However, fundamental factors have asymmetric effects, especially the response of stock price when these factors decrease rather than increase in the short run. Stock prices that are responsive to declines in fundamental performance should be of particular concern to both investors and management in their strategic decision making. The results of this study will contribute to the enrichment of literature related to stock prices from the viewpoint of economic analysis on firm-level data.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.163-199
• /
• 2007

This paper studies the stock market in which there are two types of investor, institutional and individual, whose information gathering and processing abilities are different. The institutional investor manages large funds and has powerful information sources. Whereas, the individual investor trades with a small amount of money and an information disadvantage. The model assumes that the institutional investor is more experienced and able to acquire relevant information earlier than the individual investor. On these assumptions, this paper shows a price continuation in the short run and a price reversal in the long run. The price continuation, or momentum, in the short run can be explained as follows. The early-informed institutional investor trades a stock, and as a result the stock price changes. Then the late-informed individual investor trades the same stock, and the stock price continues to move in the same direction in the short run. The reason for the price reversal in the long run is that since the individual investor has inferior information on the fundamental value of the stock, he tends to overreact to new information. So the stock price changes over its fundamental value initially and then regresses toward its fundamental value. In sum, both the price continuation and the price reversal are caused by the overreaction of the individual investor. The essay illustrates how these phenomena are stronger in the case where the proportion of the individual investor is higher. It also shows how the stock price goes up when the institutional investor buys a stock, while it goes down when the individual investor buys one.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
• /
• v.2 no.2
• /
• pp.315-344
• /
• 1995

The relationship of information flow and market price formation are central to the basic tenets of financial economics. Whereas information is usually treated as being either public or private(monopolistic), most empirical studies focus on the price effects of public announcements. More recent research has centered more on the role of private information, such as insider trading, in efficient pricing and whether such trading increases investor welfare. Typically, 'insider trading' refers to an officer that trades in his/her company's shares. Insider trading, however, also refers to anyone who generates private, albeit costly, information concerning a stock's fundamental value. Normally, such insider activity is more difficult to ascertain. One way in which negative information is revealed is through short-selling activity, especially the monthly short-interest positions reported by the national stock exchanges. Diamond and Verrecchia(1987) provide a theoretical paradigm that predicts a negative price adjustment upon announcement of n company's monthly short interest, if the short interest displays an unusual increase and is correlated with negative information that is not yet public. Empirical studies of the short-run, negative price effect predicted by Diamond and Verrecchia find mixed results. One explanation is that the time period studied is too short for the market to absorb the informational content of these announcements. One reason is that these announcements are an ambiguous signal that requires more individuals and time to collect and act on the same information before full revelation occurs or before the implicit information becomes publicly known. This 'long delayed reaction' also serves as a motivation for related research on the wealth effect of mergers, share repurchases, and initial equity offerings in which long-run performance differs from the initial, short-run reaction to such announcements or offerings.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
• /
• v.14B no.7
• /
• pp.531-540
• /
• 2007

In this research, we proposed a two-phase hybrid stock price forecasting model with cointegration tests and artificial neural networks. Using not only the related stocks to the target stock but also the past information as input features in neural networks, the new model showed an improved performance in forecasting than that of the usual neural networks. Firstly in order to extract stocks which have long run relationships with the target stock, we made use of Johansen's cointegration test. In stock market, some stocks are apt to vary similarly and these phenomenon can be very informative to forecast the target stock. Johansen's cointegration test provides whether variables are related and whether the relationship is statistically significant. Secondly, we learned the model which includes lagged variables of the target and related stocks in addition to other characteristics of them. Although former research usually did not incorporate those variables, it is well known that most economic time series data are depend on its past value. Also, it is common in econometric literatures to consider lagged values as dependent variables. We implemented a price direction forecasting system for KOSPI index to examine the performance of the proposed model. As the result, our model had 11.29% higher forecasting accuracy on average than the model learned without cointegration test and also showed 10.59% higher on average than the model which randomly selected stocks to make the size of the feature set same as that of the proposed model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.46 no.1
• /
• pp.105-111
• /
• 2023

Recently, research on prediction algorithms using deep learning has been actively conducted. In addition, algorithmic trading (auto-trading) based on predictive power of artificial intelligence is also becoming one of the main investment methods in stock trading field, building its own history. Since the possibility of human error is blocked at source and traded mechanically according to the conditions, it is likely to be more profitable than humans in the long run. In particular, for the virtual currency market at least for now, unlike stocks, it is not possible to evaluate the intrinsic value of each cryptocurrencies. So it is far effective to approach them with technical analysis and cryptocurrency market might be the field that the performance of algorithmic trading can be maximized. Currently, the most commonly used artificial intelligence method for financial time series data analysis and forecasting is Long short-term memory(LSTM). However, even t4he LSTM also has deficiencies which constrain its widespread use. Therefore, many improvements are needed in the design of forecasting and investment algorithms in order to increase its utilization in actual investment situations. Meanwhile, Prophet, an artificial intelligence algorithm developed by Facebook (META) in 2017, is used to predict stock and cryptocurrency prices with high prediction accuracy. In particular, it is evaluated that Prophet predicts the price of virtual currencies better than that of stocks. In this study, we aim to show Prophet's virtual currency price prediction accuracy is higher than existing deep learning-based time series prediction method. In addition, we execute mock investment with Prophet predicted value. Evaluating the final value at the end of the investment, most of tested coins exceeded the initial investment recording a positive profit. In future research, we continue to test other coins to determine whether there is a significant difference in the predictive power by coin and therefore can establish investment strategies.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.27-63
• /
• 2004

Since the 1980s, many multinational corporations have been issuing stocks on foreign stock exchanges, not only to enhance their investor base and liquidity, but also to diversify risks. The phenomenon has also been intensified by the rapid financial globalization and securitization trends. The main purpose of this study is to look into the long-run performance of MNCs' cross-listings of stocks on foreign stock exchanges. We use the event study and cross-sectional regression methods. We obtained some interesting empirical results about the long-run effect of cross-listings. First before the listing data the effect of cross-listing is to increase the underlying stock Vice in the local market. It may be caused by expectation of lower risk and cost of capital. However, after the listing data the stock price has been declining, even if it is not significant. Second, we examine the difference in the long-run cross-listing effect, which may be caused by the listing direction. When listing is made from a less developed market to a more developed market, the effect is better than that in the reverse direction. Furthermore, the effect is worse, when the listing company's home country is the U.S. Third, there is a negative relation between CARs and underlying stock liquidity in the local market, So it implies that a firm, whose underlying stocks are very liquid in the local market should carefully value cross-listing based upon the cost and benefit analysis. Last, but not the least we find that the long-un cross-listing effect is better, when a listing firm's ROE is higher.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.51-84
• /
• 2008

We investigate the signaling effect of repurchase preceding new equity issue using Korean data. In a short time span, firms announce stock repurchases and equity offerings. The proximity of two events in Korean firms indicates that those are not independent of each other. In this paper, we test the signaling effect of repurchase on equity offerings on the two measures. One is announcement effect, which is measured as CAR(0, +2). The other is the effectiveness which is measured as CAR(0, +30) because the price movement during this window influences on the price of new issues. Previous studies that stock repurchase convey positive signal to equity offerings-Billet and Xue(2004) and Jung(2004)-construct sample without the limit of time interval between two events. This causes the unclear relation between those because of the long time interval. In this study we consider only samples of being within one year each other to reduce this problem and clarify the signal of repurchase on equity offerings. Korean firms are allowed to repurchase own shares with two different method. One is direct repurchase as same as open market repurchase. The other is stock stabilization fund and stock trust fund which trust company or bank buy and sell their shares on the behalf of firms. Generally, the striking different characteristic between direct repurchase and indirect repurchase is following. Direct repurchase is applied by more strict regulation than indirect repurchase. Therefore, the direct repurchase is more informative signal to the equity offering than the indirect repurchase. We construct two sample firms- firms with direct repurchase preceding-equity offerings and indirect repurchase-preceding equity offering, and one control firms-equity offerings only firms-to investigate the announcement effect and the effectiveness of repurchases. Our findings are as follows. Direct repurchase favorably affect the price of new issues favorably. CAR(0, +2) of firms with direct repurchase is not different from that of equity offerings only firms but CAR(0, +30) is higher than that of equity offerings only firms. For firms with indirect repurchase and equity offerings, Both the announcement effect and the effectiveness does not exist. Jung(2004) suggest the possibilities of how indirect stock repurchase can be regarded as one of unfair trading practices on based on the survey results that financial managers of some of KSE listed firms have been asked of their opinion on the likelihood of the stock repurchase being used in unfair trading. This is not objective empirical evidence but opinion of financial managers. To investigate whether firms announce false signal before equity offerings to boost the price of new issues, we calculate the long-run performance following equity offerings. If firms have announced repurchase to boost the price of new issues intentionally, they would undergo the severe underperformance. The empirical results do not show the severer underperformance of both sample firms than equity offerings only firms. The suggestion of false signaling of repurchase preceding equity offerings is not supported by our evidence.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.233-260
• /
• 2003

This paper compares the underpricing of IPOs listed on KOSADQ with that of IPOs listed on KSE. When we consider the last day of upper price limit of IPOs, IPOs on KSE show higher initial excess return than IPOs on KOSDAQ. And AR2 which is the abnormal return based on the stock price of the last day recording upper limit after listing, IPOs on KOSDAQ exhibit larger abnormal return than IPOs on KSE. Our study also reports that the long-term performance of IPOs in two markets does not show any difference. That is, IPOs of both markets under performed in the long-run. The wealth relatives of IPOs are a little higher than market portfolio. We explored the reasons of the underpricing of IPOs in both markets through the multiple regression analysis. The business history is examined asstatistically significant variable to explain the underpricing.