• Land and Housing Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.33-37
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• 2020

The aim of this paper is to scrutinize the relation between Business Survey Index and Industrial Production Index in construction industry, stated in another way, the relation between CEO's expectations of future business status and real business activity in construction industry. Previous papers on this research area have been examined the relation between released BSI and released IPI. However, this paper focuses 'the relation between released BSI and the long-run component of IPI' and 'the relation between released BSI and the short-run component of IPI'. The first step is to decompose released IPI by unobserved component model. The long-run component of IPI is set up as a random walk process. And short-run component is set up as a stationary AR(1) process. The findings are as follows. First, released BSI Granger causes unidirectionally released IPI. Second, there exists one-way Granger causality from released BSI to long-run component of IPI. Third, Granger causality does not exist between released BSI and 'short-run component of IPI'. BSI increases IPI in the second or third month. These findings of this paper mean that CEO's expectations may influence industrial production in construction industry.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.98-105
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• 2021

Using the frequency-based decomposition, I decompose the consumption growth to explain well-known patterns of stock returns in the Korean market. To be more specific, the consumption growth is decomposed by its half-life of shocks. The component over four years of half-life is called the business-cycle consumption component, and the components with half-lives under four years are short-run components. I compute the long-run and short-run components of stock excess returns as well and use component-by-component sensitivities to price stock portfolios. As a result, the business-cycle consumption risk with half-life of over four years is useful in explaining the cross-section of size-book-to-market portfolios and size-momentum portfolios in the Korean stock market. The short-run components have their own pricing abilities with mixed direction, so that the restricted one short-term factor model is rejected. The explanatory power with short- and long-run components is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor model. The components with one- to four-year half-lives are also helpful in explaining the returns. The results about the long-run components emphasize the importance of long-run component in consumption growth to explain the asset returns.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.311-332
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• 2013

This paper examines the effect of initial margin requirements on long-run and short-run volatilities in the Japanese stock market using the Component GARCH model. Our empirical results show that when we do not divide the margin requirement into positive and negative changes, increasing margin requirement is effective for reducing long-run volatility, while not effective in short-run volatility. However, separating the positive and negative changes in margin requirements reveals the fact that the negative changes in margin requirements decrease long-run volatilities, while the higher margin requirements increase short-run volatilities in the Japanese stock market. This suggests that if the Japanese financial authorities intend to increase margin level to reduce volatility, unexpectedly, short-run volatility would be even higher.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.53-69
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• 1999

In this study. we present a modified rational addiction model which incorporates social-psychological factors. This is done through a utility function which includes social-psychological factors as its component. We apply this model to a cigarette consumption function in Korea using the data from the Korean Household Panel Study(KHPS). The results provide relatively strong support for the rational addiction model. However. the impact of social-psychological factors and the short-run and long-run price elasticities are statistically insignificant.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.61-69
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• 2022

The study intends to investigate a short-run and a long-run causality among money, income, and prices in the Keynesian and Monetarists framework. This study emphasizes the importance of unrecorded money, which exists alongside legal monetary assets and plays a dual function in determining economic prosperity. The underground economy, which is a hidden component of aggregate economic activity, is determined using Tanzi's monetary approach (Tanzi, 1980). This research uses a time series of annual data from 1990 to 2019 for this purpose. The data is extracted from the World Bank database for the monetary and development indicators. The study keeping in view the trending nature in data follows a unit root testing followed by the Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) to assess the long and short-run dynamics of causality among the variables. In both the pricing and income equations, the study finds a significant level link among the variables; however, there is no evidence of the presence of a level association in the money equation. The short-run causal relationship provides evidence of bi-directional causation between the supply of money and national income. The outcome of this study advise that though the view point of both the Monetarist and Keynesian school holds in both short and long run, however, in Pakistan only the Monetarists' role of money supply and income holds in Pakistan. This evidence would be of precise interest to the policy-makers.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.437-465
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• 2019

In this study, we propose a new method to forecast long-term energy demand in Korea. Based on Chang et al. (2016), which models the time varying long-run relationship between electricity demand and GDP with a function coefficient panel model, we design several schemes to retain objectivity of the forecasting model. First, we select the bandwidth parameters for the income coefficient based on the out-of-sample forecasting performance. Second, we extend the income coefficient using the functional principal component analysis method. Third, we proposed a method to reflect the elasticity change patterns inherent in Korea. In the empirical analysis part, we forecasts the long-term energy demand in Korea using the proposed method to show that the proposed method generates more stable long term forecasts than the existing methods.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.128-135
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• 2000

This paper considers a consecutive k-out-of-n:F system when the failure of a component in the system induces higher failure rate of the preceding survivor. The reliability, mean time to failure(MTTF), and average failure number of a consecutive k-out-of-n:F system are obtained, when the failure of a component increases the failure rate of the survivor which is working just before the failed component. Then the optimal number of consecutive failed components to minimize this long run average cost rate can be obtained. An example is considered to calculate the reliability, MTTF and average failure number of the system. And two procedures that find the optimal number of consecutive failed components are studied. Then, various cases of system parameters are also studied.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.121-132
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• 1995

In this paper we consider optimal designs of partially step-stress life testing which is deviced for k-component series systems with the considerably long life time. Test items are first run simultaneously at use condition for a specified time, and the surviving items are then run at accelerated condition until a predetermined censoring time. The optimal criterion for the change time to accelerated condition is to minimized either the generalized asymptotic variance of maximum likelihood estimators of the hazard rates at use condition and the acceleration factors or the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the acceleration factors.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.87-95
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• 2002

In this paper we consider optimal designs of partially accelerated life testing which is devised for multi-component mixed systems with the considerably long lifetime. Test items are run at both use condition and accelerated condition until a specified censoring time. The optimal criterion for the sample-proportion allocated to accelerated condition is to minimize asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimators of the acceleration factor and hazard rates.