• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.373-373
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• 2021

Rainfall forecasting is an important issue that is applied in many areas, such as agriculture, flood warning, and water resources management. In this context, this study proposed a statistical and machine learning-based forecasting model for monthly rainfall. The Bayesian Gaussian process was chosen to optimize the hyperparameters of the Stacked Long Short-term memory (SLSTM) model. The proposed SLSTM model was applied for predicting monthly precipitation of Seoul station, South Korea. Data were retrieved from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) in the period between 1960 and 2019. Four schemes were examined in this study: (i) prediction with only rainfall; (ii) with deseasonalized rainfall; (iii) with rainfall and minimum temperature; (iv) with deseasonalized rainfall and minimum temperature. The error of predicted rainfall based on the root mean squared error (RMSE), 16-17 mm, is relatively small compared with the average monthly rainfall at Seoul station is 117mm. The results showed scheme (iv) gives the best prediction result. Therefore, this approach is more straightforward than the hydrological and hydraulic models, which request much more input data. The result indicated that a deep learning network could be applied successfully in the hydrology field. Overall, the proposed method is promising, given a good solution for rainfall prediction.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.18-31
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• 2023

Exploring artificial intelligence and machine learning for nuclear safety has witnessed increased interest in recent years. To contribute to this area of research, a machine learning model capable of accurately predicting nuclear power plant response with minimal computational cost is proposed. To develop a robust machine learning model, the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach was used to generate a database to train three models and select the best of the three. The BEPU analysis was performed by coupling Dakota platform with the best estimate thermal hydraulics code RELAP/SCDAPSIM/MOD 3.4. The Code Scaling Applicability and Uncertainty approach was adopted, along with Wilks' theorem to obtain a statistically representative sample that satisfies the USNRC 95/95 rule with 95% probability and 95% confidence level. The generated database was used to train three models based on Recurrent Neural Networks; specifically, Long Short-Term Memory, Gated Recurrent Unit, and a hybrid model with Long Short-Term Memory coupled to Convolutional Neural Network. In this paper, the System Engineering approach was utilized to identify requirements, stakeholders, and functional and physical architecture to develop this project and ensure success in verification and validation activities necessary to ensure the efficient development of ML meta-models capable of predicting of the nuclear power plant response.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• 제38권4호
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• pp.395-402
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• 2022

To predict rice blast, many machine learning methods have been proposed. As the quality and quantity of input data are essential for machine learning techniques, this study develops three artificial neural network (ANN)-based rice blast prediction models by combining two ANN models, the feed-forward neural network (FFNN) and long short-term memory, with diverse input datasets, and compares their performance. The Blast_Weathe long short-term memory r_FFNN model had the highest recall score (66.3%) for rice blast prediction. This model requires two types of input data: blast occurrence data for the last 3 years and weather data (daily maximum temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation) between January and July of the prediction year. This study showed that the performance of an ANN-based disease prediction model was improved by applying suitable machine learning techniques together with the optimization of hyperparameter tuning involving input data. Moreover, we highlight the importance of the systematic collection of long-term disease data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.497-506
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• 2019

Forecasting the U.S. employment level is made using machine learning methods of the artificial neural network: deep neural network, long short term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU). We consider the big data of the federal reserve economic data among which 105 important macroeconomic variables chosen by McCracken and Ng (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 34, 574-589, 2016) are considered as predictors. We investigate the influence of the two statistical issues of the dimension reduction and time series differencing on the machine learning forecast. An out-of-sample forecast comparison shows that (LSTM, GRU) with differencing performs better than the autoregressive model and the dimension reduction improves long-term forecasts and some short-term forecasts.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.1232-1245
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• 2021

In this study, prediction of product sales as they relate to changes in temperature is proposed. This model uses long short-term memory (LSTM), which has shown excellent performance for time series predictions. For verification of the proposed sales prediction model, the sales of short pants, flip-flop sandals, and winter outerwear are predicted based on changes in temperature and time series sales data for clothing products collected from 2015 to 2019 (a total of 1,865 days). The sales predictions using the proposed model show increases in the sale of shorts and flip-flops as the temperature rises (a pattern similar to actual sales), while the sale of winter outerwear increases as the temperature decreases.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.325-332
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• 2024

This study proposes a novel long short-term memory (LSTM)-based approach for predicting carbonation depth, with the aim of enhancing the durability evaluation of concrete structures. Conventional carbonation depth prediction relies on statistical methodologies using carbonation influencing factors and in-situ carbonation depth data. However, applying in-situ data for predictive modeling faces challenges due to the lack of time-series data. To address this limitation, an LSTM-based carbonation depth prediction technique is proposed. First, training data are generated through random sampling from the distribution of carbonation velocity coefficients, which are calculated from in-situ carbonation depth data. Subsequently, a Bayesian theorem is applied to tailor the training data for each target bridge, which are depending on surrounding environmental conditions. Ultimately, the LSTM model predicts the time-dependent carbonation depth data for the target bridge. To examine the feasibility of this technique, a carbonation depth dataset from 3,960 in-situ bridges was used for training, and untrained time-series data from the Miho River bridge in the Republic of Korea were used for experimental validation. The results of the experimental validation demonstrate a significant reduction in prediction error from 8.19% to 1.75% compared with the conventional statistical method. Furthermore, the LSTM prediction result can be enhanced by sequentially updating the LSTM model using actual time-series measurement data.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2020

증가하는 사이버공격에 대응하기 위하여 머신러닝을 적용한 자동화된 침입탐지기술이 연구되고 있다. 최근 연구결과에 따르면, 순환형 학습모델을 적용한 침입탐지기술이 높은 탐지성능을 보여주는 것으로 확인되었다. 하지만 단순한 순환형 모델을 적용하는 것은 통신이 중첩된 환경일수록 연관된 통신의 특성을 반영하기 어려워 탐지성능이 저하될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이 같은 문제점을 해결하고자 세션관리모듈을 설계하여 LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) 순환형 모델에 적용하였다. 실험을 위하여 CSE-CIC-IDS 2018 데이터 셋을 사용하였으며, 정상통신비율을 증가시켜 악성통신의 연관성을 낮추었다. 실험결과 통신연관성을 파악하기 힘든 환경에서도 제안하는 모델은 높은 탐지성능을 유지할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Computers and Concrete
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• 제30권5호
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• pp.301-310
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• 2022

Cement-based sensors have been widely used as structural health monitoring systems, however, their long-term sensing performance have not actively investigated. In this study, a deep learning-based methodology is adopted to predict the long-term piezoresistive properties of cement-based sensors. Samples with different multi-walled carbon nanotube contents (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 wt.%) are fabricated, and piezoresistive tests are conducted over 10,000 loading cycles to obtain the training data. Time-dependent degradation is predicted using a modified long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The effects of different model variables including the amount of training data, number of epochs, and dropout ratio on the accuracy of predictions are analyzed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated by comparing the predictions for long-term piezoresistive sensing performance with untrained experimental data. A sensitivity of 6% is experimentally examined in the sample containing 0.1 wt.% of MWCNTs, and predictions with accuracy up to 98% are found using the proposed LSTM model. Based on the experimental results, the proposed model is expected to be applied in the structural health monitoring systems to predict their long-term piezoresistice sensing performances during their service life.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2023

It is of great importance to assess the residual displacement demand in the performance-based seismic design. In this paper, a hybrid deep learning model for predicting the residual displacement spectra under near-fault (NF) ground motions is proposed by combining the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and back-propagation (BP) network. The model is featured by its capacity of predicting the residual displacement spectrum under a given NF ground motion while considering the effects of structural parameters. To construct this model, 315 natural and artificial NF ground motions were employed to compute the residual displacement spectra through elastoplastic time history analysis considering different structural parameters. Based on the resulted dataset with a total of 9,450 samples, the proposed model was finally trained and tested. The results show that the proposed model has a satisfactory accuracy as well as a high efficiency in predicting residual displacement spectra under given NF ground motions while considering the impacts of structural parameters.

• 수면정신생리
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 1997

This paper reviewed models to explain memory and neuropsychological tests to assess memory. Memory was explained in cognitive and neuroanatomical perspectives, Cognitive model describes memory as structure and process. In structure model, memory is divided into three systems: sensory memory, short-term memory(working memory), and long-term memory. In process model, there are broadly three categories of memory process: encoding, storage, and retrieval. Memory process work in memory structure. There are two prominent models of the neuroanatomy of memory, derived from the work of Mishkin and Appenzeller and that of Squire and Zola-Morgan. These two models are the most useful for the clinician in part because they take into account the connections between the limbic and frontal cortical regions. The major difference between the two models concerns the role of the amygdala in memory processess. Mishkin and his colleagues believe that the amygdala plays a significant role while Squire and his colleagues do not. The most popular and widely used tests of memory ability such as WMS-R, AVLT, CVLT, HVLT. RBMT, CFT, and BVRT-R, were reviewed.