• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit function

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The Optimal Timing of Markdowns: A Decision Model for Jean Market (가격인하 최적시기 연구: Jean Market을 대상으로 한 Decision Model를 중심으로)

  • 곽영식;김용준;남용식;이진화
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.606-617
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a decision model that helps manufacturers and retailers determine the optimal timing of markdown in order to maximize their profit. An optimal timing decision model was developed based on three steps; conjoint measurement, scenario analysis and simulation. Data were collected from the sample of 149 out of 170 undergraduate and graduate students in Seoul in 1997. From the Jeans market, 8 brands; Levi's, lee, Guess, Calvin Klein, Pintos, Get used, MFG, and Basic, were selected as competitors for this study. In the conjoint measurement, respondents estimated the level of preference, from 1 to 100, for each item in which brand, price, style, and colors were used to explain product characteristics. Then, in order to reflect competitive situation in Jeans market, four types of scenarios were developed. In each scenario, simulations were applied to decide optimal timing of markdowns that leads to maximal profitability and sales volume. The profit was calculated based on the equation; Profit = Jean's market volume x market share of each brand - cost, where market volume was obtained by integral calculus for market utility function, and market share by logit value of part-worth from the conjoint analysis. For the purpose of the parsimony of the research, costs and the level of markdown were fixed to 30% of the regular price. In results, the optimal timing decision model identified 3 different types of brands. The brands that do not need to take markdown were Ievi's, MFG, and Basic Jeans characterized by the highest brand power and the highest price zone. The brands that needed to take early markdowns were Guess, Lee, Calvin Klein, and Get Used with the intermediate level of brand power and price. The brand that need late markdown was Pintos with the weakest brand power among the competitors and the lowest price. The optimal range of markdown remains for further research.

Modeling the Multi-Dimensional Phenomenon of Fatiguing by Assessing the Perceived Whole Body Fatigue and Local Muscle Fatigue During Squat Lifting (무릎들기 작업 시 전신피로 감지 수준과 근육 피로도를 활용한 다면적 피로현상 모델링)

  • Ahmad, Imran;Kim, Jung-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2018
  • Whole body fatigue detection is an important phenomenon and the factors contributing to whole body fatigue can be controlled if a mathematical model is available for its assessment. This research study aims at developing a model that categorizes whole body exertion into fatigued and non-fatigued states based on physiological and perceived variables. For this purpose, logistic regression was used to categorize the fatigued and non-fatigued subject as dichotomous variable. Normalized mean power frequency of eight muscles from 25 subjects was taken as physiological variable along with the heart rate while Borg scale ratings were taken as perceived variables. The logit function was used to develop the logistic regression model. The coefficients of all the variables were found and significance level was checked. The detection accuracy of the model for fatigued and non-fatigues subjects was 83% and 95% respectively. It was observed that the mean power frequency of anterior deltoid and the Borg scale ratings of upper and lower extremities were significant in predicting the whole body fatigued when evaluated dichotomously (p < 0.05). The findings can help in better understanding of the importance of combined physiological and perceived exertion in designing the rest breaks for workers involved in squat lifting tasks in industrial as well as health sectors.

A User Optimer Traffic Assignment Model Reflecting Route Perceived Cost (경로인지비용을 반영한 사용자최적통행배정모형)

  • Lee, Mi-Yeong;Baek, Nam-Cheol;Mun, Byeong-Seop;Gang, Won-Ui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2005
  • In both deteministic user Optimal Traffic Assignment Model (UOTAM) and stochastic UOTAM, travel time, which is a major ccriterion for traffic loading over transportation network, is defined by the sum of link travel time and turn delay at intersections. In this assignment method, drivers actual route perception processes and choice behaviors, which can become main explanatory factors, are not sufficiently considered: therefore may result in biased traffic loading. Even though there have been some efforts in Stochastic UOTAM for reflecting drivers' route perception cost by assuming cumulative distribution function of link travel time, it has not been fundamental fruitions, but some trials based on the unreasonable assumptions of Probit model of truncated travel time distribution function and Logit model of independency of inter-link congestion. The critical reason why deterministic UOTAM have not been able to reflect route perception cost is that the route perception cost has each different value according to each origin, destination, and path connection the origin and destination. Therefore in order to find the optimum route between OD pair, route enumeration problem that all routes connecting an OD pair must be compared is encountered, and it is the critical reason causing computational failure because uncountable number of path may be enumerated as the scale of transportation network become bigger. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to enable UOTAM to reflect route perception cost without route enumeration between an O-D pair. For this purpose, this study defines a link as a least definition of path. Thus since each link can be treated as a path, in two links searching process of the link label based optimum path algorithm, the route enumeration between OD pair can be reduced the scale of finding optimum path to all links. The computational burden of this method is no more than link label based optimum path algorithm. Each different perception cost is embedded as a quantitative value generated by comparing the sub-path from the origin to the searching link and the searched link.

Assessment of the Potential Consumers' Preference for the V2G System (V2G 시스템에 대한 잠재적 소비자의 선호 평가)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Kim, Hee-Hoon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) system, bi-direction power trading technology, enables drivers possessing electric vehicle to sell the spare electricity charged in the vehicle to power distribution company. The drivers gain profit by charging electricity in the day time of high electricity rate. In this regard, the government is preparing the policies of building and supporting V2G infrastructure and demanding the potential consumers' preference for the V2G system. This paper attempts to analyze the consumers' preference using the data from obtained a survey of randomly selected 1,000 individuals. To this end, choice experiment, an economic technique, is employed here. The attributes considered in the study are residual amount of electricity, electricity trading hours, required plug-in time, and price measured as an amount additional to current gasoline vehicle price. The multinomial logit model, which requires the assumption of 'independence of irrelevant alternatives', is applied but the assumption could not be satisfied in our data. Thus, we finally utilized nested logit model which does not require the assumption. All the parameter estimates in the utility function are statistically significant at the 10% level. The estimation results show that the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for one hour increase in electricity trading hours is estimated to be KRW 1,601,057. On the other hand, a one percent reduction in residual amount of electricity and one hour reduction in required plug-in time in V2G system are computed to be KRW -91,911 and -470,619, respectively. The findings can provide policy makers with useful information for decision-making about introducing and managing V2G system.

Clinical Efficacy of Erdosteine in Patients with Acute or Chronic Bronchitis -A Randomized, Double Blind, Comparative Study vs. Ambroxol- (급.만성 기관지염 환자에서 엘도스$^{(R)}$(Erdosteine)의 임상효과 -염산 암브록솔과의 무작위 이중맹검 비교시험-)

  • Kim, Seok-Chan;Lee, Sang-Hoak;Song, So-Hyang;Kim, Young-Kyoon;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1296-1307
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    • 1997
  • Background : Erdosteine is a thiol derivative developed for the treatement of chronic obstructive bronchitis, including acute infective exacerbation of chronic bronchitis. Erdosteine has mucomodulating and antioxidant properties and especially exhibits excellent gastrointestinal tolerability. Methods : The study was conducted as a prospective evaluation, with 2 comparative groups orally treated with erdosteine 300mg (bid.) or ambroxol 30mg (b.i.d.) for 7 days and the design of trial was double-blind. The treatments have been assigned randomly to patients (n=80) with acute or chronic bronchitis. The primary end-point used to determine efficacy in this study was subjective symptoms including expectorating frequence, expectoration volume, expectorating difficulty, expectoration viscosity, cough intensity and dyspnea. The secondary end-points of efficacy was the result of arterial blood gas analysis and pulmonary function test. Safety was evaluated with adverse drug reactions and laboratory tests monitoring. 61 patients was included in the efficacy analysis, due to the fact that 19 patients drop-out for different reasons. The obtained values have been analyzed with paired Hest., ANOVA test., multivariate $t^2$-test, repeated measures analysis of covariance, two sample t-test, loglinear-logit model analysis, Fisher's exact test. Results : 1) There was no significant difference on demographic data and vital signs between erdosteine and ambroxol treated groups. 2) The comparison between erdosteine and ambroxol treated groups showed no significant difference in improvement of each symptom in spite of the more favorable efficacy obtained with erdosteine. No difference on the contrary was observed for arterial blood gas analysis and pulmonary function test. 3) As safety is concerned, no clinical significant changes in laboratory test and symptom were induced in erdosteine and ambroxol treated group and two patients in ambroxol treated group drop-out for adverse reactions in symptom. 4) In the evaluation of final clinical efficacy, erdosteine improved more effectively patient's overall symptoms {very good effect (11/31), good effect (12/31), moderate effect (6/31), no effect (2/31), aggravation (0/31)} than ambroxol {very good effect (6/30), good effect (14/30), moderate effect (5/30), no effect (4/30), aggravation (2/30)}. And the probability of symptomatic improvement by erdosteine compared to ambroxol was 2.5 times. (p<0.05). Conclusion : This study showed that erdosteine was clinically effective and safe drug for treatment of acute and chronic bronchitis.

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Factors Affecting Transitions in Living Arrangements among Elders in Korea (노년기 거주형태의 변화와 영향요인에 관한 종단연구)

  • Yoon, Hyun-Sook;Yoon, Ji-Young;Gim, Yeong-Ja
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.64 no.1
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    • pp.249-271
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    • 2012
  • This research examines the degree and the patterns of living arrangement transitions and analyzes the factors affecting transitions in living arrangement among elders in Korea. Data came from four-wave panel study of Hallym Aging Research Institute. The first wave was conducted in 2003, and each successive wave occurred exactly 2 years after. Respondents who were aged 60 and over, and had at least one living child were selected for this research. The baseline consisted of 1,907 respondents(2003), then became 985 for the fourth transition interval (2009). A total of 825 who participated both in 2003 and 2009 were used. Binomial logit regression analyses were used to analyze the effects of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, physical health, cognitive function, psychological well-being, and cultural attitudes toward elder care on transitions in living arrangements. Results show that 29.82% of the elders made transitions in living arrangements from 2003 to 2009, indicating remarkably unstable living situation over this time period. The ratio of living alone is increased from 17.6% to 19.6%, in contrast with decreased ratio of living with married children from 30.5% to 25.2%, and that of living with unmarried children from 19.9% to 13.7%. Factors affecting transitions in living arrangement were different according to types of living arrangement. Elders living with married children were more likely to be older, widowed and to have higher level of psychological well-being and more traditional attitude toward elder care. Elders living alone were more likely to be women, widowed, and to have more chronic diseases and lower level of psychological well-being.

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Performance Evaluation and Forecasting Model for Retail Institutions (유통업체의 부실예측모형 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Uk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.11
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

Villagers' Participation in Conservation of Village Woodlands -Two cases of Namwon City, Korea (마을숲 보전 사업에 대한 마을 주민의 참여가능성 -남원시 2개 마을의 경우)

  • Park, So-Hee;Koo, Ja-Choon;Youn, Yeo-Chang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.102 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to analyze factors affecting villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands. We postulated that socio-economic characteristics such as gender, age, place of birth, wealth level, frequency of use and leader experience could contribute to decision-making of participation in the village woodland conservation. Data were collected by interviewing 52 villagers in village A and 41 villagers in village B and were used to estimate the probability function of villager's participation in village woodland conservation using ordered logit model. The results indicate that frequent use of village woodlands increases the probability of villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands in the case of village A. In the case of village B, people who were born in the village and have experiences of serving the village as a village leader are more likely to participate in the village woodland conservation activities. Considering the fact that the village woodland of village A is owned by the community as a village common, and that cultural activities remain in the village woodland of village A, the utility of village woodlands to the residents and their common understanding of village woodlands seem to influence the likelihood of villagers' participation in conservation of village woodlands. In order to induce villagers' participation in the village woodland conservation, it is necessary to recognize the right of villager's access and provide villagers with common understanding of village woodlands through cultural activities and education programs.

Road Sign Function Diversification Strategy to Respond to Changes in the Future Traffic Environment : Focusing on Citizens' Usability of Road Signs (미래 교통환경 변화 대응을 위한 도로표지 기능 다변화 전략: 시민의 도로표지 활용성을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Woo-Chul;Cheong, Kyu-Soo;Na, Joon-Yeop
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2022
  • With the advent of autonomous driving, personal mobility, drones, and smart roads, it is necessary to respond to changes in the road traffic environment in the road guidance system. However, the use of road signs to guide the road is decreasing compared to the past due to the advent of devices such as navigation and smartphones. Therefore, in this study, a large-scale survey was conducted to derive road sign issues and usage plans to respond to future changes. Based on this, this study presented a strategy to diversify road sign functions by analyzing the factors affecting the use of road signs by citizens. As a result, first, it is necessary to provide real-time variable road guidance information that reflects user needs such as traffic, weather, and local events. Second, it is necessary to informatize digital road signs such as reflecting maps with precision. Third, it is necessary to demonstrate road guidance in a virtual environment that reflects various future mobility and road environments.

Factors influencing success and safety of AED retrieval in out of hospital cardiac arrests in Singapore

  • NG, Jonathan Shen You;HO, Reuben Jia Shun;YU, Jae Yong;NG, Yih Yng
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.97-111
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Automated External Defibrillator (AED) usage in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) improves the survival of patients. In Singapore, public AEDs are protected by locked boxes with a 'break glass' mechanism to deter theft. Community responders have sustained injuries while breaking glass to retrieve AEDs. This unprecedented study aimed to elucidate the factors influencing successful retrieval of an AED and to document the prevalence of injuries. Methods: A survey was created and distributed. Participants were required to have responded to an OHCA in the past 12 months. Comparison tests were performed with the Fischer-Freeman-Halton Exact test or Pearson chi square test at 5% significance levels, and with multiple logistic regression with a logit link function. Results: Eighty-eight participants were eligible. The success of retrieving an AED was found not to be impacted by occupation, age, gender or time. Participants who responded to an OHCA because of activation by the myResponder App were more likely to retrieve an AED successfully. (AOR 11.111, 95% CI: 2.141-58.824) Conclusion: Use of the myResponder mobile application is associated with the greater success of retrieving an AED. Successful retrieval of an AED is not impacted by time, gender, age, or the occupation of the responder. Community responders in Singapore remain motivated to respond to Cardiac Arrests despite risk of injury.