• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.77-83
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• 2014

Purpose - The National Agricultural Cooperative Federation of Korea and National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea have prosecuted both financial and retail businesses. As cooperatives are public institutions and receive government support, their sound management is required by the Financial Supervisory Service in Korea. This is mainly managed by CAEL, which is changed by CAMEL. However, NFFC's business section, managing the finance and retail businesses, is unified and evaluated; the CAEL model has an insufficient classification to evaluate the retail industry. First, there is discrimination power as regards CAEL. Although the retail business sector union can receive a higher rating on a CAEL model, defaults have often been reported. Therefore, a default prediction model is needed to support a CAEL model. As we have the default prediction model using a subdivision of indexes and statistical methods, it can be useful to have a prevention function through the estimation of the retail sector's default probability. Second, separating the difference between the finance and retail business sectors is necessary. Their businesses have different characteristics. Based on various management indexes that have been systematically managed by the National Fisheries Cooperative Federation of Korea, our model predicts retail default, and is better than the CAEL model in its failure prediction because it has various discriminative financial ratios reflecting the retail industry situation. Research design, data, and methodology - The model to predict retail default was presented using logistic analysis. To develop the predictive model, we use the retail financial statements of the NFCF. We consider 93 unions each year from 2006 to 2012 to select confident management indexes. We also adapted the statistical power analysis that is a t-test, logit analysis, AR (accuracy ratio), and AUROC (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis. Finally, through the multivariate logistic model, we show that it is excellent in its discrimination power and higher in its hit ratio for default prediction. We also evaluate its usefulness. Results - The statistical power analysis using the AR (AUROC) method on the short term model shows that the logistic model has excellent discrimination power, with 84.6%. Further, it is higher in its hit ratio for failure (prediction) of total model, at 94%, indicating that it is temporally stable and useful for evaluating the management status of retail institutions. Conclusions - This model is useful for evaluating the management status of retail union institutions. First, subdividing CAEL evaluation is required. The existing CAEL evaluation is underdeveloped, and discrimination power falls. Second, efforts to develop a varied and rational management index are continuously required. An index reflecting retail industry characteristics needs to be developed. However, extending this study will need the following. First, it will require a complementary default model reflecting size differences. Second, in the case of small and medium retail, it will need non-financial information. Therefore, it will be a hybrid default model reflecting financial and non-financial information.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.221-236
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• 1993

Economic conditions of Korean agriculture have been aggravated since farmers experienced the shortage of labor, instability of farm product price, lack of capital and pressure of opening domestic market. Nevertheless, agriculture must be maintained because structure of national economy can not be progressed without balanced growth of food industry. So the problem that we must solve is to keep agriculture competitive. In that case technology is important in terms of improving productivity, overcoming labor shortage and stabilizing price. This paper is to study the technology adoption on the farm level, focusing on the theories of technology adoption, their empirical test and effect of technology adoption on the farm household income. In this study five theories-independent model, linear model, middle class conservation model, modified middle class conservation model, basic needs and wealfare model- were introduced concerning differentiated technology adoption rate by farmers' class. Based on the survey of controlled strawberry farming in Nonsan County, Chungnam Province, who adopted six kinds of technology, modified middle class conservation model was found to explain five kinds of technology adoption pattern and linear model was useful to explain one kind of technology, that is, irrigation method, These results may mean that controlled strawbary cultivators of middle class were reluctant to accept new technology. There are many variables to effect on the technology accepting rate, that is, farmer's age, labor capacity, education level, cultivation career, size of total cultivated land, and size of strawberry farming land. LOGIT model was used to find which variable influence the technology adoption rate. Results of estimation showed that variables of cultivation career and total land size, of which coefficients were statistically significant at the 5 percent level, might be main influential factors in accepting more than three farming techniques. There was a significant income difference between farm households accepting new methods and those rejecting them. Especially in case of low class of farming group, income of farmers who was adopting new technology was examined to be much higher than that of farmers who did not adopt. This result suggests that new technology play an important role in increasing farm household income. Finally this study emphasized that there is a need to develop proper measure of technology transfer considering various socioeconomic conditions of farm households.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.27-38
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• 2002

VTIS(Value-added Traffic Information System), among the sub-systems of ATIS, is an Advanced Traffic System which innovates efficiency and safety. And this system, having marketability and publicness, is very important. Moreover, This system offers definite traffic information according to the demand of specified users. And it is expected to produce additional spread effects because of high participation rate of private sector. However, the VTIS service media are varied and there are varied optimal Prices and payment methods according to each medium. Because of that, there needs the study on these problems or optimal criteria. But because existing studies were devoted to estimate the optimal route, the study toward the optimal price which was considered part of user and service use demand do not exist. Accordingly, we surveyed under imaginary alternative pricing scenarios and forecasted the use demand of VTIS by using Binary Logit model. Also, for the users who answered that they would use VTIS service in survey, we classified their use's behaviors as four categories and estimated the use ratio to each category by using Ordered Probit model. Last, using sensitivity analysis for results form above, we derived the optimal price that is 2800won in monthly. 145won in payment per call. Then, VTIS service use rate is respectively 65%, 75%.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.119-130
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• 2003

SP data have been widely used in assessing new transport policies and transport related plans. However, one of criticisms of using SP is that respondents may show different reaction between hypothetical experiments and real life. In order to overcome the problem, combination of SP and RP data has been suggested and the combined methods have been being developed. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new SP and RP combined method using error component method and to verify the method. The error component method decomposes IID extreme value error into non-IID error component(s) and an IID error component. The method estimates both of component parameters and utility parameters in order to obtain relative variance of SP data and RP data. The artificial SP and RP data was created by using simulation and used for the analysis, and the estimation results of the error component method were compared with those of existing SP and RP combined methods. The results show that regardless of data size, the parameters of the error component method models are similar to those assumed parameters much more than those of the existing SP and RP combined models, indicating usefulness of the error component method. Also the values of time for error component method are more similar to those assumed values than those of the existing combined models. Therefore, we can conclude that the error component method is useful in combining SP and RP data and more efficient than the existing methods.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.667-677
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• 2013

The introduction of a new transit facility affects mode share of travel alternatives. The multinomial logit model, which has been the most commonly used for estimating mode share, has difficulty in reflecting heterogeneity of travelers' choices, and it has a limitation on grasping their characteristics of mode choice. The limitation may lead to over- or under-estimation of the new transit facility and bring about significant social costs. This paper aims to find a methodology to overcome the problem of preference homogeneity. It also applies market segmentation structure of separating the whole population into direct and indirect beneficiary to consider their preference heterogeneity. A mode choice model is estimated on data from Jeju Province and statistically tested. The results show that mode transfer rate of direct beneficiaries that inhabit in downtown areas increases as the new transit facility provides more advanced services with higher costs. The results and the model suggested in this study can contribute to improving the accuracy of demand forecasting of new transit facilities by reflecting heterogeneity of mode-transfer patterns.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.51-61
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• 2008

Most of Korea's 15 local airports, with the exception Jeju, Gimpo and Gimhae airports, have been several billion Won in the red each year. It has been reported that one of the causes of the poor financial performance is inaccurate air traffic demand predictions. Under the situation, the entry of low-cost carrier air service using turbo-prop airplanes into the domestic airlines market gets a wide range of support, which is expected to promote the convenience of consumers and help to activate local airports. In this study, the authors (1) suggest a high-speed transport demand model among existing airlines, Korea Train Express (KTX) and low-cost carrier air service; (2) try to make low-cost air carrier demand predictions for a route between Seoul and Daegu through a stated-preference survey; and (3), examine possible effectiveness of selected policy measures by establishing an estimation model. First, fare has a strong influence for mode choice between high-speed transport modes when considering the entry of low-cost carrier air service between Seoul and Daegu. Even low-cost carrier air service fare is set at 38,000 won, which is considerably low compared with that of KTX, in the regions where the total travel time is the same for both low-cost carrier air service and KTX, the probability of selecting low-cost carrier air service is 0.1, which shows little possibility of modal change between high speed transportation means. It is suggested that the fare of low-cost air service between Seoul and Daegu should be within the range of from of 38,000 to 44,000 Won; if it is higher, the demand is likely to be lower than expected.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.5-20
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• 2006

Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.115-129
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• 2023

Purpose - This study empirically analyzes the consumer value of risk management associated with illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing of fishery products imported to Korea. The global regulatory paradigm for IUU fishing has shifted from production-centered to market-centered. As a result, changes in the international fisheries trade environment emphasizing "transparency" and "legality" of the production process are accelerating. Therefore, changes in the management systems of fishery products entering the country are also needed. Accordingly, this study estimated the consumer value for risk management of IUU fishing, targeting major fish species imported to Korea, and derived the feasibility of introducing related policies. Design/methodology - This study used the choice experiment as an analysis model to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for the "possibility to check for IUU fishing." The choice experiment assumes that the value of a good or service is composed of separable attributes and that the sum of the part-worth of these individual attributes becomes the total value. In this study, respondents were presented with profiles comprising three attributes (country of origin, price, and possibility of checking IUU fishing) and the levels of frozen poulp squid, the subject of the analysis. The participants were asked to select their preferred profile. The marginal willingness to pay for each attribute was derived from the results of the respondents' choices using conditional logit model estimates. Findings - There is a marked difference in utility based on the preference of the country of origin of fishery products among consumers. In addition, the utility of fishery products that have undergone IUU fishing verification was observed to be higher, with the utility marked to be higher for lower prices. Originality/value - Estimating the policy value of the risk management in IUU fishing of imported fisheries products in this study is a novel attempt that has never been conducted before. Several studies have been conducted to assess the risk of IUU fishing associated with the import of fishery products internationally. However, such studies are yet to be conducted in Korea. Instead, policies and studies have focused on issues related to complying with trading partners' legal and transparent standards for exporting fishery products. This study should be the beginning of more in-depth empirical and theoretical explorations to establish order in the domestic seafood market and respond to changes in international regulations on IUU fishing.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.4D
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• pp.433-441
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• 2009

In the coming ubiquitous society, the importance of developing advanced public transportation systems (APTS) corresponding to individuals' needs and useful in their daily life is profound. In these regards, the study proposed new APTS services: Free internet access service and On-board real time traffic information service in public modes. A stated preference (SP) survey was performed to investigate individual's preference and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for the proposed APTS services. Multinomial logit models (MNL) incorporating the heterogeneity of respondents were developed to analyze individuals' preference and the difference of WTP. Some results of the study showed that the respondents' preferences were significantly different by in-vehicle travel times (30 min, 60 min) and their socioeconomic background. More respondents prefer new APTS services when invehicle travel time takes longer. For the housewife and self-employed group, the mean WTP for on-board realtime traffic information was higher than that of free internet access services, while for the company employees and students group, the mean WTP was similar in both services.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.17-26
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• 2009

As the lifestyle of consumers changes and the need for various products increases, new products are being developed in the market. Each household owns various home appliances which are purchased through the choice of a decision maker. These appliances include not only large-sized products such as TV, refrigerator, and washing machine, but also small-sized products such as microwave oven and air cleaner. There exists latent correlation among possession of home appliances, even though they are purchased independently. The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of demographic factors on the purchase and possession of each home appliances, and to derive some relationships among various appliances. To achieve this purpose, the present status on the possession of each home appliances are investigated through consumer survey data on the electric and energy product. And a multivariate probit(MVP) model is applied for the empirical analysis. From the estimation results, some appliances show a substitutive or complementary pattern as expected, while others which look apparently unrelated have correlation by co-incidence. This research has several advantages compared to previous literatures on home appliances. First, this research focuses on the various products which are purchased by each household, while previous researches such as Matsukawa and Ito(1998) and Yoon(2007) focus just on a particular product. Second, the methodology of this research can consider a choice process of each product and correlation among products simultaneously. Lastly, this research can analyze not only a substitutive or complementary relationship in the same category, but also the correlation among products in the different categories. As the data on the possession of home appliances in each household has a characteristic of multiple choice, not a single choice, a MVP model are used for the empirical analysis. A MVP model is derived from a random utility model, and has an advantage compared to a multinomial logit model in that correlation among error terms can be derive(Manchanda et al., 1999; Edwards and Allenby, 2003). It is assumed that the error term has a normal distribution with zero mean and variance-covariance matrix ${\Omega}$. Hence, the sign and value of correlation coefficients means the relationship between two alternatives(Manchanda et al., 1999). This research uses the data of 'TEMEP Household ICT/Energy Survey (THIES) 2008' which is conducted by Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program in Seoul National University. The empirical analysis of this research is accomplished in two steps. First, a MVP model with demographic variables is estimated to analyze the effect of the characteristics of household on the purchase of each home appliances. In this research, some variables such as education level, region, size of family, average income, type of house are considered. Second, a MVP model excluding demographic variables is estimated to analyze the correlation among each home appliances. According to the estimation results of variance-covariance matrix, each households tend to own some appliances such as washing machine-refrigerator-cleaner-microwave oven, and air conditioner-dish washer-washing machine and so on. On the other hand, several products such as analog braun tube TV-digital braun tube TV and desktop PC-portable PC show a substitutive pattern. Lastly, the correlation map of home appliances are derived using multi-dimensional scaling(MDS) method based on the result of variance-covariance matrix. This research can provide significant implications for the firm's marketing strategies such as bundling, pricing, display and so on. In addition, this research can provide significant information for the development of convergence products and related technologies. A convergence product can decrease its market uncertainty, if two products which consumers tend to purchase together are integrated into it. The results of this research are more meaningful because it is based on the possession status of each household through the survey data.