• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit Models

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Revisit Intention of Visitors to Cultural Festival using Logit Model (로짓모형을 이용한 축제참가자의 재방문 의사 분석)

  • Heo, Chung-Uk
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.139-156
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    • 2009
  • This article investigates the relationships between motivation and revisit intention of visitors to Gangneung Danoje Festival as cultural festival with social demand. Out of 550 questionnaires distributed, a total of 514 usable questionnaires were collected. The hypothesized causal model was tested by logit model, which included satisfaction model to each program as well as overall satisfaction model to cultural festival. Model 1 is constructed with satisfaction and revisit intention to each program, and Model 2 with overall satisfaction and revisit intention to cultural festival. In this models causal variables were inputted including satisfaction to festival programs, frequency of visitation, days of stay, time required to destination. In Model 1 positive sign were shown by causal variables as satisfaction to each program, frequency of visitation, days of stay but negative signs was shown by time required to festival place. In Model 2 sign directions of causal variables were same in Model 1. In comparison, Model 2 is more significant than Model 1 on the basis of statistical theory as significance level and coefficient of determination. Consequently, cultural festival managers should test the satisfaction level of visitors to each program of cultural festival and make efforts to establish advanced program in order to attract more visitors.

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Empirical Study on the Mode Choice Behavior of Travelers by Express Bus and Express Train (특급(特急)과 고속(高速)버스 이용자(利用者)의 수단선정행태(手段選定行態)에 관한 경험적(經驗的) 연구(研究))

  • Kim, Kyung Whan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.119-126
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    • 1983
  • The purposes of this study are to analyze/model the mode choice behavior of the regional traveler by express bus/express train and to offer useful source in deciding the public transportation policy. The data analyzed were trips of both modes from March, 1980 to November, 1981, between Seoul and other nineteen cities; the data were grouped as five groups according to the change of service variables. Service variables were travel time(unit: minute), cost(:won), average allocation time(:won), service hour(:hour), and dummy variables by mode. As model Logit Model with linear or log utility function were postulated. As the result of this study, some reseanable models were constructed at Model Type I(eq. 2. of this paper) based on the above data except the dummy. It was judged that the parameters calibrated by Group III and Group IV data in table 4, were optimal. Among the parameters, the parameter of travel cost was most reliable. There was a tendency preferring express bus to train in October and November. With the constructed model and Pivot-Point Method. the demand change of express train caused by the service variables' change could be forecasted over 99%.

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The Economic Impact of Contaminated and Noxious Sites : A Meta Analysis (오염-유해시설의 경제적 영향 : 메타분석)

  • Won, Doo Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.165-196
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    • 2008
  • This paper reports a quantitative meta analysis of the economic impacts of localized noxious and contaminated sites. Using either hedonic property value or stated preference methods, economists have studied the effects of contamination or noxious activities, or the benefits realized from their elimination, on real estate prices at more than 40 sites. In support of wise public and private investments in environmental quality, most of these studies aim to inform decision makers about the benefits of remediation and cleanup. Their results vary considerably, but there has been no previous systematic effort to analyze the differences and identify shared insights. This study uses established methods of meta analysis to identify points of agreement and differences in this body of literature. The studies are characterized by the type of site, modeling approach, geographic extent of impacts, data features, and other key factors that underlie their value estimates. The impact estimates are normalized as proportional effects on property values. This study attempts to discover whether the estimated economic impacts of contamination or noxious activity differ according to these characteristics of the studies, and whether anything general can be said about the economic consequences of site contamination and remediation. Bivariate, multivariate, and logit techniques are applied to the data. The results suggest that the property value is the most sensitive to water base contamination, published case studies result in systematically greater environmental value than those in unpublished reports, and real estate markets show responses to environmental condition changes.

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Analysis of University Students' Modal Shift for Commuting Trip Due to the Introduction of New Urban Rail Transit in Gyeongsan City - Comparison between SP Model Before the Introduction and RP Model After the Introduction - (대구 도시철도 경산 연장에 따른 대구-경산 간 대학생 통학통행의 도시철도 전환수요 분석 - 개통 전 SP모형과 개통 후 RP모형의 비교 -)

  • Yun, Dae-Sic;Lee, Chan-Hwi
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2016
  • The main objective of this paper is to analyze university students' modal shift for commuting trip due to the introduction of new urban rail transit in a satellite city of metropolitan area. The paper uses SP(2011)/RP(2013) data collected from Yeungnam University in Gyeongsan City, which is a satellite city of Deagu Metropolitan City. So far few researches, especially using before-and-after individual SP/RP travel survey, have been conducted on analyzing university students' modal shift due to the introduction of new urban rail transit. For this research, some descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. Furthermore, some empirical logit models were estimated for analyzing factors affecting the modal shift. Finally, some important findings and policy implications are discussed. The significant findings from this research are summarized as follows. From the descriptive statistical analyses of SP and RP data, it is found that the rate of modal shift to rail transit is relatively high especially for bus travellers. Furthermore, from the empirical SP model estimation, it is found that time saving is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit. On the other hand, from the empirical RP model estimation, it is found that residential location is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit.

A Study on the Enterprise Value Analysis using AHP and Logit Regressions (AHP와 로짓회귀분석을 활용한 기업가치 분석방법)

  • Gu, Seung-Hwan;Shin, Tack-Hyun;Yuldashev, Zafar
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.5810-5818
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    • 2015
  • The dissertation presents the portfolio construction method using the score sheet so that general investors can utilize it easily. This study draws the significant variables to contribute the enterprise value and suggests the combined models by applying the single methodology, which private investors can easily utilize. The results of the research can be classified into 2 areas. Firstly, the significantly affecting variables were selected for analyzing the enterprise value. The variables and the method for the enterprise value analysis were studied from the existing researches to choose the optimal variables. The variables were identified by using AHP method and the structure equation method from the investigation of the previous researches. And the critical variables were added extracted from the common denominator of variables which the 3 grue investors used for their investment. The final variables identified are dividend yield, PER, PBR, PCR, EV/EBITDA, ROE, net income, sales growth rate, net current asset, debt ratio, current ratio, rate of operating profits, ratio of operating profit to net sales, ratio of net income to net sales, net profit to total assets, EPS growth rate, inventory turnover ratio, and receivables turnover. Second, the new methodologies for forecasting enterprise value modifying the existing methods were developed. The result of the Logistic regression analysis for forecasting showed that the equation could not be suitable as the accuracy with 91.98%.

The Effects of Road Geometry on the Injury Severity of Expressway Traffic Accident Depending on Weather Conditions (도로기하구조가 기상상태에 따라 고속도로 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Su Jin;Kho, Seung-Young;Park, Ho-Chul
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2019
  • Road geometry is one of the many factors that cause crashes, but the effect on traffic accident depends on weather conditions even under the same road geometry. This study identifies the variables affecting the crash severity by matching the highway accident data and weather data for 14 years from 2001 to 2014. A hierarchical ordered Logit model is used to reflect the effects of road geometry and weather condition interactions on crash severity, as well as the correlation between individual crashes in a region. Among the hierarchical models, we apply a random intercept model including interaction variables between road geometry and weather condition and a random coefficient model including regional weather characteristics as upper-level variables. As a result, it is confirmed that the effects of toll, ramp, downhill slope of 3% or more, and concrete barrier on the crash severity vary depending on weather conditions. It also shows that the combined effects of road geometry and weather conditions may not be linear depending on rainfall or snowfall levels. Finally, we suggest safety improvement measures based on the results of this study, which are expected to reduce the severity of traffic accidents in the future.

An Analysis on Consumer Preference for Attributes of Agricultural Box Scheme (농산물 꾸러미 속성별 소비자선호 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Dong;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Jang, Woo-Whan;Lim, Cheong-Ryong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyze consumer preferences based on the agricultural box scheme attributes, and make a suggestion for business revival. We estimate the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for box scheme attributes using a choice experiment. Attributes include the bundle method, the delivery method, and price. To select an efficient model for statistical analysis, we evaluate the conditional logit model, heteroscedastic extreme value model(HEV model), multinomial probit model, and mixed logit model under different assumptions. The results of these four models show that the bundle method, the delivery method, and price are statistically significant in explaining the probability of participation in a box scheme. The results of likelihood ratio tests show that the heteroscedastic extreme value model is the most appropriate for our survey data. The results also indicate that MWTP for a change from fixed type to selection type is KRW 7,096.6. MWTP for a change from parcel service to direct delivery and cold-chain delivery are KRW 3,497.5 and KRW 7,532.7, respectively. The results of this study may contribute to the government's local food policies.

An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Development of the RP and SP Combined using Error Component Method (Error Component 방법을 이용한 RP.SP 결합모형 개발)

  • 김강수;조혜진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.119-130
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    • 2003
  • SP data have been widely used in assessing new transport policies and transport related plans. However, one of criticisms of using SP is that respondents may show different reaction between hypothetical experiments and real life. In order to overcome the problem, combination of SP and RP data has been suggested and the combined methods have been being developed. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a new SP and RP combined method using error component method and to verify the method. The error component method decomposes IID extreme value error into non-IID error component(s) and an IID error component. The method estimates both of component parameters and utility parameters in order to obtain relative variance of SP data and RP data. The artificial SP and RP data was created by using simulation and used for the analysis, and the estimation results of the error component method were compared with those of existing SP and RP combined methods. The results show that regardless of data size, the parameters of the error component method models are similar to those assumed parameters much more than those of the existing SP and RP combined models, indicating usefulness of the error component method. Also the values of time for error component method are more similar to those assumed values than those of the existing combined models. Therefore, we can conclude that the error component method is useful in combining SP and RP data and more efficient than the existing methods.

Prediction of Estimated Sales Amount through New Open of Department Store (대형백화점의 신규출점에 따른 예상매출액 추정)

  • Park, Chul-ju;Ko, Youn-bae;Youn, Myoung-kil;Kim, Won-kyum
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-20
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    • 2006
  • Retail is called location business because it is one of the most important factors to estimate management of stores for retailers who are going to sell products directly to customers. Retailers' management achievements are shown in sale in general. Therefore, retailers tend to focus on ways to increase the numbers of customers in order to raise sales. First of all, in this research, I am going to examine the most fundamental models such as Reilly's retail gravitation, converse model, huff probability model and multiful losit model in selecting stores. Secondly, I am going to provide the process and analyzing ways to predict estimated sales amount with the previous theory model. Also I am going to predict estimated sales amount of the department store L which is located in D metorpolitan city. Lastly, I am going to argue about the problem of this research and the next research subject. Our main goal is to provide ways to complement and inspect sales estimation models, which can be used in fields after taking characters of high class structure of Korea into consideration on the base of previous researches. According to the result of the research, my conclusion is that if the process of analysis and changing factors are complemented, revise model, which can reflect reality of Korea, will be provided. Therefore, in the future study, we have to build up theory models to suit for our retail market through critic reviews about the existing high class structure of Korea.

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