• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logit Model

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The Analysis of Bus Traffic Accident to Support Safe Driving for Bus Drivers (버스운전자 안전운행지원을 위한 교통사고 분석 연구)

  • BHIN, Miyoung;SON, Seulki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.14-26
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    • 2019
  • For bus drivers' safe driving, a policy that analyzes the causes of the drivers' traffic accidents and then assists their safe driving is required. Therefore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport set up its plan to gradually expand the equipping of commercial vehicles with FCWS (Forward Collision Warning System) and LDWS(Lane Departure Warning System), from the driver-supporting ADAS(Advanced Driver Assistance Systems). However, there is not much basic research on the analysis of bus drivers' traffic accidents in Korea. As such, the time is appropriate to research what is the most necessary ADAS for bus drivers going forward to prevent bus accidents. The purpose of this research is to analyze how serious the accidents were in the different bus routes and whether the accidents were repetitive, and to give recommendations on how to support ADAS for buses, as an improvement. A model of ordered logit was used to analyze how serious the accidents were and as a result, vehicle to pedestrian accidents which directly affected individuals were statistically significant in all of the models, and violations of regulations, such as speeding, traffic signal violation and violation of safeguards for passengers, were indicated in common in several models. Therefore, the pedestrian-sensor system and automatic emergency control device for pedestrian should be installed to reduce bus accidents directly affecting persons in the future, and education for drivers and ADAS are to be offered to reduce the violations of regulations.

A Logistic Regression Analysis on the Recognition of Korean Small and Medium Enterprises on Korea-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership (로짓분석을 통한 국내 중소기업의 한-인도 포괄적 경제동반자 협정에 대한 인식 연구)

  • Lee, Soon Cheul
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.107-129
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    • 2010
  • This study does the logistic regression analysis in a survey how Korean Small and Medium Enterprises(SMEs) recognize the effects of the Korea-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA) on their business activities and strategies. The results show that Korean SMEs which have relatively more employees and bigger size in terms of sales have interest in the Korea-India CEPA. In particular, the SMEs which are engaged in their business activities with India have more interest in the CEPA than those that have not any business relations with India. However, the results show that they will not enter or expand their business fields in India even though the CEPA starts. It implies that Korean SMEs recognize that the CEPA will not affect their business significantly. Thus, this study has a policy implication for government to adopt/establish policies for SMEs utilizing the CEPA. It includes information services about the CEPA, India markets, a political corporation between the Governments for improving the partnerships in the trade and FDI and so on.

Determinants of Attitude toward the Electronic Wristband System to Tackle the Spread of COVID-19 -Focused on the Interaction between Class and Age- (코로나19 자가격리 안심밴드에 대한 태도 결정 요인 -계층과 연령의 상호작용을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Jae-Wan
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzes the factors that determine the attitude toward the electronic wristband(smartband) to check the position of self-quarantine subjects due to COVID-19. Furthermore, I analyze the interaction of class and age among the factors that determine attitudes toward the electronic wristband. In this study, the attitude toward self-quarantine electronic wristband is analyzed as a binary logit model, focusing on class and age. As a result of the analysis, the middle class significantly agreed with the self-quarantine electronic wristband compared to the lower class, and the older the person, the more in favor. On the other hand, the interaction between the class and the age shows that the age weakens the positive effect on the attitude of the self-quarantine electronic wristband in the middle and upper middle classes. The implication of this study is that it is necessary to push for mandatory electronic wristband in areas with high proportion of high-aged people with positive attitude toward self-quarantine electronic wristband and in the same age group, the approval rate is low, so it is necessary to promote mandatory electronic wristband in areas where the vulnerable class is dense.

Further Empirical Analysis on Corporate R&D Intensity for KOSDAQ Listed SMEs in the Era of the Post Global Economic Crisis (국제금융위기 이후의 코스닥 상장 중소기업들의 연구개발비에 대한 실증적 심층분석)

  • Kim, Hanjoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.248-258
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    • 2021
  • The study analyzed the financial determinants of corporate R&D intensity that require more attention from academics and practitioners in the Korean capital market. Domestic small and medium enterprises (SMEs) may face with developing substitutes by making more R&D investments in scale and scope, given the unprecedented economic conditions such as the limitation of importing core components and materials from other nation(s). KOSDAQ-listed SMEs were selected as sample data, whose R&D expenditures may be less than those of large firms during the post-global financial turmoil period (2010~2018). Static panel data model was applied, along with Tobit and stepwise regression models, for examining the validity of results. Logit, probit, and complementary log-log regressions were also employed for a relative analysis. R&D expenditures in the prior year, the interaction effect between the previous R&D intensity and high-tech sector, firm size, and growth rate were significant to determine R&D intensity. Moreover, a majority of explanatory variables were found to change between the years 2011 and 2018, while time-lagged effects between the R&D intensity and growth rate exist. Results of the study are expected to be used for future research to detect optimal levels of R&D expenditures for the value maximization of SMEs.

Factors Associated with the Use of Medical Care at Hospitals among Outpatients with Hypertension: A Study of the Korea Health Panel Study Dataset (2010-2016) (우리나라 고혈압 환자의 병원급 의료기관 외래이용 관련 요인: 한국의료패널자료(2010-2016)를 이용하여)

  • Lee, Sumi;Park, Sohee;Kimm, Heejin;Lee, Yongjae;Chung, Woojin
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.479-492
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    • 2020
  • Background: As the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Korea, the government is seeking policy actions to manage patients with hypertension more efficiently. In this paper, we aimed to identify factors associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension. Methods: We analyzed a total of 15,040 cases of 3,877 outpatients with hypertension obtained from the Korea Medical Panel database from 2010 to 2016. The dependent variable was whether a patient with hypertension visited a hospital or not; and independent variables were the patient's various socio-demographic, health-related, and heath-status characteristics. We conducted a generalized linear mixed model analysis with logit link for all the cases and then conducted it stratified by gender. Results: As a result of a multivariable analysis, women were less likely than to visit at a hospital (odds ratio [OR], 0.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32-0.61) and people aged 65 years and older than those aged less than 65 years (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89). Residents in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam were more likely than those in than Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon, and Jeju to visit a hospital (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05-1.86). The likelihood of visiting a hospital was high in people belonging to a group of: the highest level of annual household income (OR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.30-2.29); Medical care aid recipients (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.34-2.83); people having three or more complex chronic diseases (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.19-2.11); people having diabetes (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.41-2.32); or people having ischemic heart disease or cerebrovascular disease (OR, 6.80; 95% CI, 5.28-8.76). Also, we found that factors associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension differed between genders. Conclusion: A variety of factors seem to be associated with the use of medical care at hospitals among outpatients with hypertension. Future research needs to find a way to help patients with hypertension visit an appropriate medical institution between clinics and hospitals.

The Estimation of the Demand of Newly Married Couples for Public Rental Housing in Chungnam (충남 신혼부부의 공공임대주택 수요 추정과 정책적 함의)

  • Hong, Sung-Hyo;Im, Jun-Hong
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2022
  • This paper estimates the demand of newly married couples for public rental housing in Chungnam. This research attempts to overcome data limitations by linking survey data with administrative data for analysis. First, the results of a binary logit model that analyzes newly married couples' intention to move into public rental housing, based on the Chungnam Social Survey 2019, reveal that residential location, educational level, housing type, and tenure type have a statistically significant effect. By combining the estimated coefficients with another dataset, the statistics of newly married couples for administration purposes acquired from Statistics Korea, this research estimates the demand for public rental housing among the newly married couples in Chungnam. The estimation results show that the total demand for public rental housing in Chungnam is 11,424 units among 43,705 newly married couples. The total demand of 21,685 newly married couples who occupy rental housing is estimated to be 9,436 units. The policy for providing public rental housing to newly married couples in Chungnam aims to increase their fertility rates. Hence, further research should be followed up to evaluate the effect of the supply of public rental housing on fertility rates. Also, a research method should be developed to control for possible endogeneity between the demand for public rental housing and childbirths.

Road Sign Function Diversification Strategy to Respond to Changes in the Future Traffic Environment : Focusing on Citizens' Usability of Road Signs (미래 교통환경 변화 대응을 위한 도로표지 기능 다변화 전략: 시민의 도로표지 활용성을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Woo-Chul;Cheong, Kyu-Soo;Na, Joon-Yeop
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.30-41
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    • 2022
  • With the advent of autonomous driving, personal mobility, drones, and smart roads, it is necessary to respond to changes in the road traffic environment in the road guidance system. However, the use of road signs to guide the road is decreasing compared to the past due to the advent of devices such as navigation and smartphones. Therefore, in this study, a large-scale survey was conducted to derive road sign issues and usage plans to respond to future changes. Based on this, this study presented a strategy to diversify road sign functions by analyzing the factors affecting the use of road signs by citizens. As a result, first, it is necessary to provide real-time variable road guidance information that reflects user needs such as traffic, weather, and local events. Second, it is necessary to informatize digital road signs such as reflecting maps with precision. Third, it is necessary to demonstrate road guidance in a virtual environment that reflects various future mobility and road environments.

A Stochastic User Equilibrium Transit Assignment Algorithm for Multiple User Classes (다계층을 고려한 대중교통 확률적사용자균형 알고리즘 개발)

  • Yu, Soon-Kyoung;Lim, Kang-Won;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lim, Yong-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.165-179
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    • 2005
  • The object of this study is a development of a stochastic user equilibrium transit assignment algorithm for multiple user classes considering stochastic characteristics and heterogeneous attributes of passengers. The existing transit assignment algorithms have limits to attain realistic results because they assume a characteristic of passengers to be equal. Although one group with transit information and the other group without it have different trip patterns, the past studies could not explain the differences. For overcoming the problems, we use following methods. First, we apply a stochastic transit assignment model to obtain the difference of the perceived travel cost between passengers and apply a multiple user class assignment model to obtain the heterogeneous qualify of groups to get realistic results. Second, we assume that person trips have influence on the travel cost function in the development of model. Third, we use a C-logit model for solving IIA(independence of irrelevant alternatives) problems. According to repetition assigned trips and equivalent path cost have difference by each group and each path. The result comes close to stochastic user equilibrium and converging speed is very fast. The algorithm of this study is expected to make good use of evaluation tools in the transit policies by applying heterogeneous attributes and OD data.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

A Comparison of the Characteristics of Maritally Violent Men in a Community Sample and Batterers in the Criminal Justice System (지역사회의 폭력남편과 가정폭력범죄 행위자들의 특성 비교)

  • Chang, Hee-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.141-168
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    • 2006
  • The present study explored and compared the risk factors of two subtypes of maritally violent men with those of a nonviolent comparison group. One type of batterers consisted of a community sample, and the other was sought from the criminal justice system. The identities of the male community batterers were not exposed to the society since their victims did not contact any of the social service agents related to domestic violence. To identify the different characteristics associated with two subtypes of woman abusers, a total of 152 nonviolent men, 82 male community batterers, and 336 offenders in a criminal justice system were considered. The results of the descriptive analysis showed that the level of physical violence of the community batterers was two times lower than that of the batterers who received legal punishments. The results of the multinominal logistic regression were as follows: (1) The variables that distinguished the male community batterers from the nonviolent men were the use of physical violence towards children, marital decision power, and income. (2) Four factors had been found to distinguish batterers in the criminal justice system from nonbatterers, namely: attitudes towards woman battering, education, violence towards children, and level of jealousy. (3) The community batterers showed a higher level of education and of stress as well as a longer period of marital relationship compared to the batterers in the criminal justice system. On the other hand, the batterers who received legal punishments had more severe alcohol problems and had an accepting attitude towards the use of violence. This study also investigated psychopathology among batterers using MCMI-III, based on 333 subjects. In terms of the mean scores, there were no subscales associated with personality pathology in all the male groups. Based on the logit model, the community batterers showed a stronger tendency towards having a passive-aggressive personality than did their counterparts, and they recorded a higher level of narcissism compared to the court-referred battering men. Post-traumatic stress was the only symptom that distinguished the batterers who received legal punishments from the other groups. The theoretical and practical implications of these results were pointed out and discussed in the paper.

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