• Title/Summary/Keyword: Logistic 모형

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Breeding and Development of the Tscherskia triton in Jeju Island (제주도 서식 비단털쥐(Tscherskia triton)의 번식과 발달)

  • Park, Jun-Ho;Oh, Hong-Shik
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.152-165
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    • 2017
  • The greater long-tail hamster, Tscherskia triton, is widely distributed in Northern China, Korea and adjacent areas of Russia. Except for its distribution, biological characteristics related to life history, behavior, and ecological influences for this species are rarely studied in Korea. This study was conducted to obtain biological information on breeding, growth and development that are basic to species-specific studies. The study adopted laboratory management of a breeding programme for T. triton collected in Jeju Island from March, 2015 to December, 2016. According to the study results, the conception rate was 31.67% and the mice in the large cages had a higher rate of conception than those in the small cages (56.7 vs. 6.7%). The gestation period was $22{\pm}1.6days$ (ranges from 21 to27 days), and litter size ranged from 2 to 7, with a mean of $4.26{\pm}1.37$ in the species. The minimum age for weaning was between $19.2{\pm}1.4days$ (range of 18-21 days). There were no significant differences by sex between mean body weight and external body measurements at birth. However, a significant sexual difference was found from the period of weaning (21 days old) in head and body length, as well as tail length (HBL-weaning, $106.50{\pm}6.02$ vs. $113.34{\pm}4.72mm$, p<0.05; HBL-4 months, $163.93{\pm}5.42$ vs. $182.83{\pm}4.32mm$, p<0.05; TL-4 months, $107.23{\pm}3.25$ vs. $93.95{\pm}2.15mm$, p<0.05). Gompertz and Logistic growth curves were fitted to data for body weight and lengths of head and body, tail, ear, and hind foot. In two types of growth curves, males exhibited greater asymptotic values ($164.840{\pm}7.453$ vs. $182.830{\pm}4.319mm$, p<0.0001; $163.936{\pm}5.415$ vs. $182.840{\pm}4.333mm$, p<0.0001), faster maximum growth rates ($1.351{\pm}0.065$ vs. $1.435{\pm}0.085$, p<0.05; $2.870{\pm}0.253$ vs. $3.211{\pm}0.635$, p<0.05), and a later age of maximum growth than females in head and body length ($5.121{\pm}0.318$ vs. $5.520{\pm}0.333$, p<0.05; $6.884{\pm}0.336$ vs. $7.503{\pm}0.453$, p<0.05). However, females exhibited greater asymptotic values ($105.695{\pm}5.938$ vs. $94.150{\pm}2.507mm$, p<0.001; $111.609{\pm}14.881$ vs. $93.960{\pm}2.150mm$, p<0.05) and longer length of inflection ($60.306{\pm}1.992$ vs. $67.859{\pm}1.330mm$, p<0.0001; $55.714{\pm}7.458$ vs. $46.975{\pm}1.074mm$, p<0.05) than males in tail length. These growth rate constants, viz. the morphological characters and weights of the males and females, were similar to each other in two types of growth curves. These results will be used as necessary data to study species specificity of T. triton with biological foundations.

Therapeutic compliance and its related factors in pediatrics patients (소아 환자의 치료 순응도 및 이에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Park, Ki Soo;Kam, Sin;Kim, Heung Sik;Lee, Jeong Kwon;Hwang, Jin-Bok
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.584-596
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : This study was conducted to investigate treatment compliance and related factors in pediatric patients. Methods : Three hundred and fifty-five patients diagnosed with various acute diseases at a teaching hospital or clinic in October 2003 were enrolled. Data were analyzed using the Health Belief Model, which includes items on self-efficacy and family assistance. Results : The study found that 62.9% of pediatric patients adhered faithfully to agreed-upon hospital revisits, 41.6% complied with dose timings instructions, 65.8% precisely took medication, and 27.2% complied with all of these requirements. According to ${\chi}^2$ test analysis, the factors found to be related to therapeutic compliance (the taking of medicines requested) were; susceptibility, severity, benefit, barriers, mother's self-efficacy, and family assistance (P<.05). Multiple logistic analysis and path analysis showed that susceptibility, severity, barriers, and mother's self-efficacy were related to therapeutic compliance (P<.05). Moreover, mother's self-efficacy was identified as the most important factor. Conclusion : To improve therapeutic compliance among pediatric patients, parental education is necessary, and a health care professional must take a thorough history of how the medication was taken before it is assumed that treatment failure is attributable to the medication prescribed. Furthermore, the type of device recommended for dosing should be determined by clinicians. In addition, it is important that pediatric medications be discussed in relation to their palatability and internal acceptability.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of White Backed Planthopper (WBPH), Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) (Homoptera: Delphacidae) (흰등멸구 [Sogatella furcifera (Horvath)] 온도 발육 모델)

  • Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Park, Hong-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2013
  • The developmental times of the immature stages of Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) were investigated at ten constant temperatures (12.5, 15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5, 30, 32.5, $35{\pm}1^{\circ}C$), 20~30% RH, and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. Eggs were successfully developed on each tested temperature regimes except $12.5^{\circ}C$ and its developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (22.5 days) and shortest at $32.5^{\circ}C$ (5.5 days). Nymphs successfully developed to the adult stage from $15^{\circ}C$ to $32.5^{\circ}C$ temperature regimes. Developmental time was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (51.9 days) and it was decreased with increasing temperature up to $32.5^{\circ}C$ (9.0 days). The relationships between developmental rate and temperature were fitted by a linear model and seven nonlinear models (Analytis, Briere 1, 2, Lactin 2, Logan 6, Performance and modified Sharpe & DeMichele). The lower threshold temperature of egg and total nymphal stage was $10.2^{\circ}C$ and $12.3^{\circ}C$ respectively. The thermal constant required to complete egg and nymphal stage were 122.0 and 156.3 DD, respectively. The Briere 1 model was best fitted ($r^2$= 0.88~0.99) for all developmental stages, among seven nonlinear models. The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by three non-linear models (2-parameter, 3-parameter Weibull and Logistic) ($r^2$= 0.91~0.96) except second and fifth instar.

Economic Injury Level of Mamestra brassicae L. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on Early Stage of Cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var capitata L.) (양배추에서 생육초기 도둑나방의 경제적피해수준 설정)

  • Kang, Taek-Jun;Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Yang, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.237-243
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to develop economic injury level (ElL) and economic threshold (ET) of Cabbage armyworm, Mamestra brassicae L. on cabbage (Brassica oleracea L. var). The changes of cabbage biomass and M. brassicae density were investigated after introduction of larval M. brassicae (2nd instar) at different densities: 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, and 16 larvae per plant at 40 d after planting for an open field experiment, and 0, 2, 5, 8 and 12 larvae per plant at 25 d after planting for a glass house experiment. In the field experiment, the yield loss of cabbage was not significantly different among treated-plots at 30 d after the larval introduction, showing an over-compensatory response of cabbage plants to M. brassicae attack. In the glasshouse experiment, however, the biomass of cabbage at 15 d after the larval introduction significantly decreased with increasing the initial introduced number of M. brassicae, resulting in 38.3, 36.7, 21.7, 23.3 and 16.7g in above treated-plots, respectively. The relationship between cumulative insect days (CID) and yield loss (%) of cabbage was well described by a nonlinear logistic equation. Using the estimated equation, ElL of M. brassicae on cabbage was estimated at 44 CID per plant based on the yield loss 14%, which take into account of an empirical gain threshold 5% and marketable rate 91% of cabbage. Also, ET was calculated at 80% of the EIL: 35 CID per plant. Until a more elaborate EIL-model is developed, the present result may be useful for M. brassicae management at early growth stage of cabbage.

Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

Factors Influencing the Activation of Brown Adipose Tissue in 18F-FDG PET/CT in National Cancer Center (양전자방출단층촬영 시 갈색지방조직 활성화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • You, Yeon Wook;Lee, Chung Wun;Jung, Jae Hoon;Kim, Yun Cheol;Lee, Dong Eun;Park, So Hyeon;Kim, Tae-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.21-28
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    • 2021
  • Purpose Brown fat, or brown adipose tissue (BAT), is involved in non-shivering thermogenesis and creates heat through glucose metabolism. BAT activation occurs stochastically by internal factors such as age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) and external factors such as temperature and environment. In this study, as a retrospective, electronic medical record (EMR) observation study, statistical analysis is conducted to confirm BAT activation and various factors. Materials and Methods From January 2018 to December 2019, EMR of patients who underwent PET/CT scan at the National Cancer Center for two years were collected, a total of 9155 patients were extracted, and 13442 case data including duplicate scan were targeted. After performing a univariable logistic regression analysis to determine whether BAT activation is affected by the environment (outdoor temperature) and the patient's condition (BMI, cancer type, sex, and age), A multivariable regression model that affects BAT activation was finally analyzed by selecting univariable factors with P<0.1. Results BAT activation occurred in 93 cases (0.7%). According to the results of univariable logistic regression analysis, the likelihood of BAT activation was increased in patients under 50 years old (P<0.001), in females (P<0.001), in lower outdoor temperature below 14.5℃ (P<0.001), in lower BMI (P<0.001) and in patients who had a injection before 12:30 PM (P<0.001). It decreased in higher BMI (P<0.001) and in patients diagnosed with lung cancer (P<0.05) In multivariable results, BAT activation was significantly increased in patients under 50 years (P<0.001), in females (P<0.001) and in lower outdoor temperature below 14.5℃ (P<0.001). It was significantly decreased in higher BMI (P<0.05). Conclusion A retrospective study of factors affecting BAT activation in patients who underwent PET/CT scan for 2 years at the National Cancer Center was conducted. The results confirmed that BAT was significantly activated in normal-weight women under 50 years old who underwent PET/CT scan in weather with an outdoor temperature of less than 14.5℃. Based on this result, the patient applied to the factor can be identified in advance, and it is thought that it will help to reduce BAT activation through several studies in the future.

Factors Affecting Physicians who will be Vaccinated Every Year after Receiving the COVID-19 Vaccine in Healthcare Workers (의료종사자의 COVID-19 예방 백신 접종받은 후 향후 매년 예방접종 의향에 미치는 요인)

  • Hyeun-Woo Choi;Sung-Hwa Park;Eun-Kyung Cho;Chang-hyun Han;Jong-Min Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study was to vaccinate every year according to the general characteristics of COVID-19, whether to vaccinate every year according to the vaccination experience, whether to vaccinate every year according to knowledge/attitude about vaccination, and negative responses to the vaccinate every year In order to understand the factors affecting the vaccination physician every year by identifying the factors of Statistical analysis is based on general characteristics, variables based on vaccination experience, and knowledge/attitudes related to vaccination. The doctor calculates the frequency and percentage, A square test (-test) was performed, and if the chi-square test was significant but the expected frequency was less than 5 for 25% or more, a ratio difference test was performed with Fisher's exact test. Through multiple logistic regression analysis using variables that were significant in simple analysis, a predictive model for future vaccination and the effect size of each independent variable were estimated. As statistical analysis software, SAS 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) was used, and because the sample size was not large, the significance level was set at 10%, and when the p-value was less than 0.10, it was interpreted as statistically significant. In the simple logistic regression analysis, the reason why they answered that they would not be vaccinated every year was that they answered 'to prevent infection of family and hospital guests' rather than 'to prevent my infection' as the reason for the vaccination. It was 11.0 times higher and 3.67 times higher in the case of 'for the formation of collective immunity of the local community and the country'. The adverse reactions experienced after the 1st and 2nd vaccination were 8.42 times higher in those who did not experience pain at the injection site than those who did not, 4.00 times higher in those who experienced swelling or redness, and 5.69 times higher in those who experienced joint pain. There was a 5.57 times higher rate of absenteeism annually than those who did not. In addition, the more anxious they felt about vaccination, the more likely they were to not get the vaccine every year by 2.94 times.

A Time Series Graph based Convolutional Neural Network Model for Effective Input Variable Pattern Learning : Application to the Prediction of Stock Market (효과적인 입력변수 패턴 학습을 위한 시계열 그래프 기반 합성곱 신경망 모형: 주식시장 예측에의 응용)

  • Lee, Mo-Se;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2018
  • Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

Analysis of Speeding Characteristics Using Data from Red Light and Speed Enforcement Cameras (다기능단속카메라 수집 자료를 활용한 과속운전 특성 분석)

  • PARK, Jeong Soon;KIM, Joong Hyo;HYUN, Chul Seng;JOO, Doo Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 2016
  • Speeding is an important factor in traffic safety. Speed not only affects crash severity, but is also related to the possibility of crash occurrence. This study presents results from an analysis of 27,968 speed violation cases collected from 36 red light and speed enforcement cameras at signalized intersections in the city of Cheongju. Data included details of their violation history such as speeding tickets within a recent 3-year span and their demographic characteristics. The goal of this analysis is to understand the correlation between speed violations and various factors in terms of humans, vehicles and road environments. This study used descriptive statistics and Binary Logistics Regression(BLR) analysis with SPSS 20.0 software. The major results of this study are as follows. First, speed violations occurred at rural and suburban area. Second, about 25.6% of the violators committed to more than 20km/h over a speed limit. Third, the difference between speed violators and normal drivers clearly appeared in location of intersection(urban/rural/suburban area), gender and age. Finally, a statistically significant model(Hosmer and Lemeshow test: 11.586, p-value: 0.171) was developed through the BLR.

Economic Injury Level of Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) at Chinese Cabbage (배추의 생육초기에 복숭아혹진딧물의 경제적 피해수준 설정)

  • Jeon, Heung-Yong;Kang, Taek-Jun;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Yang, Chang-Yeol;Kim, Dong-Soon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.407-411
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to estimate the economic injury level (EIL) and economic threshold (ET) of the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, on Chinese cabbage (Brassica campestris var). The changes of biomass of Chinese cabbage and M. persicae density were investigated after introduction of M. persicae at different density (0, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 per plant; inoculated at 10d after planting). The densities of M. persicae largely increased from the above initial densities to 0, 92.3, 177.4, 406.9, 440.4, and 471.3 aphids per plant at 18d after the initial inoculation, respectively. The biomass of Chinese cabbage significantly decreased with increasing the initial inoculated density of M. persicae: 602.0, 264.2, 262.0, 109.3, 151.0, and 67.3 g in above plots with different initial densities, respectively. The relationship between cumulative aphid days (CAD) and yield loss (%) of Chinese cabbage was well described by a nonlinear logistic equation. Using the estimated equation, EIL of M. persicae on Chinese cabbage was estimated 25 CAD per plant based on the yield loss 13%, which take into account of an empirical gain threshold 5% and marketable rate 92% of spring Chinese cabbage. Also, ET was calculated at 80% of EIL: 20 aphids per plant. Until a more elaborate EIL-model is developed, the present result may be useful for M. persicae management at early growth stage of Chinese cabbage.