• 전기학회논문지
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• 제66권7호
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• pp.1001-1006
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• 2017

In this study the NARX was proposed as a novel approach to forecast electric load more accurately. The NARX model is a recurrent dynamic network. ISO-NewEngland dataset was employed to evaluate and validate the proposed approach. Obtained results were compared with NAR network and some other popular statistical methods. This study showed that the proposed approach can be applied to forecast electric load and NARX has high potential to be utilized in modeling dynamic systems effectively.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.91-93
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• 2004

Load forecasting is essential in order to supply electrical energy stably and economically in power systems. ANNs have flexibility to predict a nonlinear feature of load profiles. In this paper, we selected just the necessary input variables used in the paper(2) which is based on the phase-space embedding of a load time-series and reviewing others. So only 5 input variables were selected to forecast for spring, fall and winter season and another input considering temperature sensitivity is added during the summer season. The training cases are also selected from all previous data composed training cases of a 7-day, 14-day and 30-day period. Finally, we selected the training case of a 7-day period because it can be used in STLF without sacrificing the accuracy of the forecast. This allows more compact ANNs, smaller training cases. Consequently, test results show that compact neural networks can be forecasted without sacrificing the accuracy.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제21권7호
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• pp.61-67
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• 2007

전력수요예측은 전력계통의 운용을 위해 필수적이다. 따라서 다양한 방법이 제시되어 왔으며, 특히 특수일의 수요예측은 평일과 구분되며, 부하 패턴을 축출하기에 충분한 자료 확보가 어려워 예측 오차가 크게 나타난다. 본 논문에서는 특수일의 부하예측 정확도를 개선하기 위해 퍼지 최소자승 선형회귀 모델을 분석한다. 4종류의 퍼지 최소자승 선형회귀 모델에 대해 분석과 사례연구를 통하여 가장 정확한 모델을 제시한다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.24-31
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• 2012

This study is designed to predict the overall electric power load, to apply the method of time sharing and to reduce simultaneous load factor of electric power when authorized by user entering demand plans and using schedules into the user's interface for a certain period of time. This is about smart grid, which reduces electric power load through simultaneous load factor of electric power reduction system supervision agent. Also, this study has the following characteristics. First, it is the user interface which enables authorized users to enter and send/receive such data as demand plan and using schedule for a certain period of time. Second, it is the database server, which collects, classifies, analyzes, saves and manages demand forecast data for a certain period of time. Third, is the simultaneous load factor of electric power control agent, which controls usage of electric power by getting control signal, which is intended to reduce the simultaneous load factor of electric power by the use of the time sharing control system, form the user interface, which also integrate and compare the data which were gained from the interface and the demand forecast data of the certain period of time.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2011년도 제42회 하계학술대회
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• pp.199-200
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• 2011

Load forecasting is very important for power system analysis and planning. This paper suggests yearly load forecasting of considering weekly normalization and seasonal load characteristics. Each weekly peak load is normalized and the average value is calculated. The new hourly peak load is seasonally collected. This method was used for yearly load forecasting. The results of the actual data and forecast data were calculated error rate by comparing.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1999년도 추계학술대회 논문집 학회본부 A
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• pp.239-241
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• 1999

This paper proposes a novel wavelet transform and Kohonen neural network based technique for short-time load forecasting of power systems. Firstly. Kohonen Self-organizing map(KSOM) is applied to classify the loads and then the Daubechies D2, D4 and D10 wavelet transforms are adopted in order to forecast the short-term loads. The wavelet coefficients associated with certain frequency and time localisation are adjusted using the conventional multiple regression method and then reconstructed in order to forecast the final loads through a four-scale synthesis technique. The outcome of the study clearly indicates that the proposed composite model of Kohonen neural network and wavelet transform approach can be used as an attractive and effective means for short-term load forecasting.

• 에너지공학
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.68-76
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• 1997

본 논문에서는 단기 부하예측을 위하여 인공신경망 모형을 제안하였다. 본 논문에서 제안된 인공신경망의 학습알고리즘은 기존의 역전파 알고리즘 보다 효과적으로 학습수렴이 빠르며 모수결정과 초기가중치 값들에 대한 의존도가 낮은 동적 적응 학습알고리즘을 개발하여 단기 부하예측에 그 적용 가능성을 시험하였다.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.152-156
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• 2007

This paper proposes a method for real-time control of both capacitors and ULTC in a distribution system to reduce the total power loss and to improve the voltage profile over the course of a day. The multi-stage consists of the off-line stage to determine dispatch schedule based on a load forecast and the on-line stage generates the time and control sequences at each sampling time. It is then determined whether one of the control actions in the control sequence is performed at the present sampling time. The proposed method is presented for a typical radial distribution system with a single ULTC and capacitors.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.358-363
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• 2004

Due to the weather sensitivity of the power load, it is difficult to forecast accurately the peak power load of summer season. We improve the accuracy of the load forecasting considering weather condition. We introduced the sensitivity of temperature and proposed an improved forecasting algorithm. The proposed algorithm shows that the error of the load forecasting is 1.5%.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.491-493
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• 2003

Load foretasting model used generally such as times series and econometric regression model often doesn't reflect the load characteristics of small remote islands. Therefore, in this paper load demand forecast is peformed using EGARCH-M non-linear forecasting model.