• Title/Summary/Keyword: Linear Models

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The Effects of Socioeconomic Deprivation on Public Library Book Circulation: A Community-level Study (지역사회 사회경제적 박탈이 공공도서관 대출 책수에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jongwook;Kang, Woojin;Lee, Myeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.219-243
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzes the effects of community-level socioeconomic deprivations (SED) on public libraries' book circulation in the Seoul metropolitan area. The study design draws upon the theory of local information landscapes, which explains the relationship between community characteristics and information behavior. Using four-year (2015-2018) open government and public library circulation data, we constructed a socioeconomic deprivation index by adjusting a multi-dimensional deprivation index and generated other variables. Multi-level robust linear regression models were used to examine the relationship between SED and public library circulation. In addition, we tested the moderating effects of the library collection size and the number of libraries per unit area, respectively, on library circulation. The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and library circulation rate. Also, we found that the size of the library collection negatively moderates the effects of SED in areas with a large number of books, and the number of libraries per unit area was positvely related to the library book circulation, not moderating the effects of SED. These findings suggest that public libraries and policymakers should consider community characteristics in designing strategic plans for public libraries.

The Effects of Road Geometry on the Injury Severity of Expressway Traffic Accident Depending on Weather Conditions (도로기하구조가 기상상태에 따라 고속도로 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Park, Su Jin;Kho, Seung-Young;Park, Ho-Chul
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2019
  • Road geometry is one of the many factors that cause crashes, but the effect on traffic accident depends on weather conditions even under the same road geometry. This study identifies the variables affecting the crash severity by matching the highway accident data and weather data for 14 years from 2001 to 2014. A hierarchical ordered Logit model is used to reflect the effects of road geometry and weather condition interactions on crash severity, as well as the correlation between individual crashes in a region. Among the hierarchical models, we apply a random intercept model including interaction variables between road geometry and weather condition and a random coefficient model including regional weather characteristics as upper-level variables. As a result, it is confirmed that the effects of toll, ramp, downhill slope of 3% or more, and concrete barrier on the crash severity vary depending on weather conditions. It also shows that the combined effects of road geometry and weather conditions may not be linear depending on rainfall or snowfall levels. Finally, we suggest safety improvement measures based on the results of this study, which are expected to reduce the severity of traffic accidents in the future.

Estimation of hourly daytime air temperature on slope in complex terrain corrected by hourly solar radiation (복잡지형 경사면의 일사 영향을 반영한 매시 낮 기온 추정 방법)

  • Yun, Eun-jeong;Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.376-385
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    • 2018
  • To estimate the hourly temperature distribution due to solar radiation during the day, on slope in complex terrain, an empirical formula was developed including the hourly deviation in the observed temperature following solar radiation deviation, at weather stations on the east-facing and west-facing slopes. The solar radiation effect was simulated using the empirical formula to estimate hourly temperature at 11 weather observation sites in mountainous agricultural areas, and the result was verified for the period from January 2015 to December 2017. When the estimated temperature was compared with the control, only considering temperature lapse rate, it was found that the tendency to underestimate the temperature from 9 am to 3 pm was reduced with the use of an empirical formula in the form of linear expression; consequently, the estimation error was reduced as well. However, for the time from 5 pm to 6 pm, the estimation error was smaller when a hyperbolic equation drawn from the deviation in solar radiation on the slope, which was calculated based on geometric conditions, was used instead of observed values. The reliability of estimating the daytime temperature at 3 pm was compared with existing estimation model proposed in other studies; the estimation error could be mitigated up to an ME (mean error) of $-0.28^{\circ}C$ and RMSE (root mean square error) of $1.29^{\circ}C$ compared to the estimation error in previous models (ME $-1.20^{\circ}C$, RMSE $2.01^{\circ}C$).

Evaluation of the Degenerative Changes of the Distal Intervertebral Discs after Internal Fixation Surgery in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis

  • Dehnokhalaji, Morteza;Golbakhsh, Mohammad Reza;Siavashi, Babak;Talebian, Parham;Javidmehr, Sina;Bozorgmanesh, Mohammadreza
    • Asian Spine Journal
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.1060-1068
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    • 2018
  • Study Design: Retrospective study. Purpose: Lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration is an important cause of low back pain. Overview of Literature: Spinal fusion is often reported to have a good course for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). However, many studies have reported that adjacent segment degeneration is accelerated after lumbar spinal fusion. Radiography is a simple method used to evaluate the orientation of the vertebral column. magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the method most often used to specifically evaluate intervertebral disc degeneration. The Pfirrmann classification is a well-known method used to evaluate degenerative lumbar disease. After spinal fusion, an increase in stress, excess mobility, increased intra-disc pressure, and posterior displacement of the axis of motion have been observed in the adjacent segments. Methods: we retrospectively secured and analyzed the data of 15 patients (four boys and 11 girls) with AIS who underwent a spinal fusion surgery. We studied the full-length view of the spine (anterior-posterior and lateral) from the X-ray and MRI obtained from all patients before surgery. Postoperatively, another full-length spine X-ray and lumbosacral MRI were obtained from all participants. Then, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, curve correction, and fused and free segments before and after surgery were calculated based on X-ray studies. MRI images were used to estimate the degree to which intervertebral discs were degenerated using Pfirrmann grading system. Pfirrmann grade before and after surgery were compared with Wilcoxon signed rank test. While analyzing the contribution of potential risk factors for the post-spinal fusion Pfirrmann grade of disc degeneration, we used generalized linear models with robust standard error estimates to account for intraclass correlation that may have been present between discs of the same patient. Results: The mean age of the participant was 14 years, and the mean curvature before and after surgery were 67.8 and 23.8, respectively (p<0.05). During the median follow-up of 5 years, the mean degree of the disc degeneration significantly increased in all patients after surgery (p<0.05) with a Pfirrmann grade of 1 and 2.8 in the L2-L3 before and after surgery, respectively. The corresponding figures at L3-L4, L4-L5, and L5-S1 levels were 1.28 and 2.43, 1.07 and 2.35, and 1 and 2.33, respectively. The lower was the number of free discs below the fusion level, the higher was the Pfirrmann grade of degeneration (p<0.001). Conversely, the higher was the number of the discs fused together, the higher was the Pfirrmann grade. Conclusions: we observed that the disc degeneration aggravated after spinal fusion for scoliosis. While the degree of degeneration as measured by Pfirrmann grade was directly correlated by the number of fused segments, it was negatively correlated with the number of discs that remained free below the lowermost level of the fusion.

Analysis of Correlation between Marine Traffic Congestion and Waterway Risk based on IWRAP Mk2 (해상교통혼잡도와 IWRAP Mk2 기반의 항로 위험도 연관성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Euijong;Lee, Yun-sok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2019
  • Several types of mathematical analysis methods are used for port waterway risk assessment based on marine traffic volume. In Korea, a marine traffic congestion model that standardizes the size of the vessels passing through the port waterway is applied to evaluate the risk of the waterway. For example, when marine traffic congestion is high, risk situations such as collisions are likely to occur. However, a scientific review is required to determine if there is a correlation between high density of maritime traffic and a high risk of waterway incidents. In this study, IWRAP Mk2(IALA official recommendation evaluation model) and a marine traffic congestion model were used to analyze the correlation between port waterway risk and marine traffic congestion in the same area. As a result, the linear function of R2 was calculated as 0.943 and it was determined to be significant. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.971, indicating a strong positive correlation. It was confirmed that the port waterway risk and the marine traffic congestion have a strong correlation due to the influence of the common input variables of each model. It is expected that these results will be used in the development of advanced models for the prediction of port waterway risk assessment.

Implementing an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Emotion Prediction Based on Heart Rate Variability(HRV) (심박변이도를 이용한 적응적 뉴로 퍼지 감정예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung Soo;Lee, Kun Chang
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2019
  • An accurate prediction of emotion is a very important issue for the sake of patient-centered medical device development and emotion-related psychology fields. Although there have been many studies on emotion prediction, no studies have applied the heart rate variability and neuro-fuzzy approach to emotion prediction. We propose ANFEP(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy System for Emotion Prediction) HRV. The ANFEP bases its core functions on an ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) which integrates neural networks with fuzzy systems as a vehicle for training predictive models. To prove the proposed model, 50 participants were invited to join the experiment and Heart rate variability was obtained and used to input the ANFEP model. The ANFEP model with STDRR and RMSSD as inputs and two membership functions per input variable showed the best results. The result out of applying the ANFEP to the HRV metrics proved to be significantly robust when compared with benchmarking methods like linear regression, support vector regression, neural network, and random forest. The results show that reliable prediction of emotion is possible with less input and it is necessary to develop a more accurate and reliable emotion recognition system.

A study on the number of passengers using the subway stations in Seoul (데이터마이닝 기법을 이용한 서울시 지하철역 승차인원 예측)

  • Cho, Soojin;Kim, Bogyeong;Kim, Nahyun;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2019
  • Subways are eco-friendly public transportation that can transport large numbers of passengers safely and quickly. It is necessary to predict the accurate number of passengers in order to increase public interest in subway. This study groups stations on Lines 1 to 9 of the Seoul Metropolitan Subway using clustering analysis. We propose one final prediction model for all stations and three optimal prediction models for each cluster. We found three groups of stations out of 294 total subway stations. The Group 1 area is industrial and commercial, the Group 2 ares is residential and commercial, and the Group 3 area is residential districts. Various data mining techniques were conducted for each group, as well as driving some influential factors on demand prediction. We use our model to predict the number of passengers for 8 new stations which are part of the 3rd extension plan of Seoul metro line 9 opened in October 2018. The estimated average number of passengers per hour is from 241 to 452 and the estimated maximum number of passengers per hour is from 969 to 1515. We believe our analysis can help improve the efficiency of public transportation policy.

Computational Efficiency on Frequency Domain Analysis of Large-scale Finite Element Model by Combination of Iterative and Direct Sparse Solver (반복-직접 희소 솔버 조합에 의한 대규모 유한요소 모델의 주파수 영역 해석의 계산 효율)

  • Cho, Jeong-Rae;Cho, Keunhee
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2019
  • Parallel sparse solvers are essential for solving large-scale finite element models. This paper introduces the combination of iterative and direct solver that can be applied efficiently to problems that require continuous solution for a subtly changing sequence of systems of equations. The iterative-direct sparse solver combination technique, proposed and implemented in the parallel sparse solver package, PARDISO, means that iterative sparse solver is applied for the newly updated linear system, but it uses the direct sparse solver's factorization of previous system matrix as a preconditioner. If the solution does not converge until the preset iterations, the solution will be sought by the direct sparse solver, and the last factorization results will be used as a preconditioner for subsequent updated system of equations. In this study, an improved method that sets the maximum number of iterations dynamically at the first Krylov iteration step is proposed and verified thereby enhancing calculation efficiency by the frequency domain analysis.

Modeling and Optimization of Dough Properties Using Response Surface Design (반응표면분석법을 이용한 반죽물성의 모델링 및 최적화)

  • Lee, Kooyeon;Choi, Gwkang Seok;Kim, Tae Woo;Cho, Kwan Hyung;Kang, Dongjin;Kim, Sung Tae;Jang, Dong-Jin
    • Food Engineering Progress
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.132-137
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to optimize dough properties using response surface methodology (RSM) and to demonstrate the performances of dough prepared under optimized conditions. Dough mixed with yeast, margarine, salt, sugar and wheat flour was prepared by fermentation process. Hardness, cohesiveness and springiness of dough were selected as critical quality attributes. The critical formulations (yeast and water) and process (fermentation time) variables were selected as critical input variables based on preliminary experiment. Box-Behnken design (BBD) was used as RSM. As a result, the quardratic, the squared and the linear model respectively provided the most appropriate fit ($R^2$>90) and had no significant lack of fit (p>0.05) on critical quality attributes (hardness, cohesiveness and springiness). The accurate prediction of dough characteristics was possible from the selected models. It was confirmed by validation that a good correlation was obtained between the actual and predicted values. In conclusion, the methodologies using RSM in this study might be applicable to the optimization of fermented foods containing various wheat flour and yeast.

Machine learning-based Fine Dust Prediction Model using Meteorological data and Fine Dust data (기상 데이터와 미세먼지 데이터를 활용한 머신러닝 기반 미세먼지 예측 모형)

  • KIM, Hye-Lim;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.92-111
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    • 2021
  • As fine dust negatively affects disease, industry and economy, the people are sensitive to fine dust. Therefore, if the occurrence of fine dust can be predicted, countermeasures can be prepared in advance, which can be helpful for life and economy. Fine dust is affected by the weather and the degree of concentration of fine dust emission sources. The industrial sector has the largest amount of fine dust emissions, and in industrial complexes, factories emit a lot of fine dust as fine dust emission sources. This study targets regions with old industrial complexes in local cities. The purpose of this study is to explore the factors that cause fine dust and develop a predictive model that can predict the occurrence of fine dust. weather data and fine dust data were used, and variables that influence the generation of fine dust were extracted through multiple regression analysis. Based on the results of multiple regression analysis, a model with high predictive power was extracted by learning with a machine learning regression learner model. The performance of the model was confirmed using test data. As a result, the models with high predictive power were linear regression model, Gaussian process regression model, and support vector machine. The proportion of training data and predictive power were not proportional. In addition, the average value of the difference between the predicted value and the measured value was not large, but when the measured value was high, the predictive power was decreased. The results of this study can be developed as a more systematic and precise fine dust prediction service by combining meteorological data and urban big data through local government data hubs. Lastly, it will be an opportunity to promote the development of smart industrial complexes.