• Title/Summary/Keyword: Likelihood measure

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Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using GRM based on formal and informal likelihood measure (정형·비정형우도를 이용한 GRM 강우-유출 모형 분석)

  • Seong, Yeonjeong;Hwang, Ingyu;Jung, Younghun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.300-300
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    • 2021
  • 최근 기후변화와 기상이변으로 예측하지 못한 게릴라성의 국지성호우로 인해서 과거 장마와 같은 피해가 아닌 변화된 강우패턴으로 막대한 피해가 나타나고 있다. 또한, 이러한 게릴라성 호우는 예측 또한 어려운 경향을 나타낸다. 이러한 피해를 방지하기 위해 단기유출 예측을 위해 사용되는 다양한 모형들 가운데 GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model)을 사용하였으며, GRM모델은 단기유출해석에 사용되며 국내에서 개발된 물리적 기반 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 한강의 하류인 청미천 유역을 대상으로 강우-유출 분석을 진행하였으며, 환경부의 11개 기상관측소의 자료를 이용한 티센망도 기반의 면적강우량으로 산정하였고 이를 GRM에 적용하였다. 강우자료의 Event 선정기간은 2011년 6월 29일부터 2011년 7월 1일까지 86.83mm 강수가 내린 Event이다. 공간자료는 국토지리정보원의 90M DEM(Digital Elevation Model), 농촌진흥청의 정밀토양도와 토심, 환경부 환경공간서비스의 대분류 토지이용도를 이용하였다. 또한, 검정을 위해서 정형우도인 NSE, 비정형우도인 Log-normal 우도를 이용하여 분석하였으며, 각각의 결과값은 NSE 0.966, Log-normal은 -1214.97의 값을 나타냈다. 추후, 다양한 적합지표를 이용하여 GRM의 강우패턴별, 유역별대표매개수가 산정된다면 홍수방어를 위한 강우-유출 모형으로 매우 유용하게 활용될 것으로 판단된다.

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MODELING MEASURES OF RISK CORRELATION FOR QUANTITATIVE FLOAT MANAGEMENT OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

  • Richard C. Jr. Thompson;Gunnar Lucko
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.459-466
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    • 2013
  • Risk exists in all construction projects and resides among the collection of subcontractors and their array of individual activities. Wherever risk resides, the interrelation of participants to one another becomes paramount for the way in which risk is measured. Inherent risk becomes recognizable and quantifiable within network schedules in the form of consuming float - the flexibility to absorb delays. Allocating, owning, valuing, and expending such float in network schedules has been debated since the inception of the critical path method itself. This research investigates the foundational element of a three-part approach that examines how float can be traded as a commodity, a concept whose promise remains unfulfilled for lack of a holistic approach. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of financial portfolio theory, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return of individual stocks, is explored as an analogy to quantify the inherent risk of the participants in construction projects. The inherent relationship between them and their impact on overall schedule performance, defined as schedule risk -the likelihood of failing to meet schedule plans and the effect of such failure, is matched with the use of CAPM's beta component - the risk correlation measure of an individual stock to that of the entire market - to determine parallels with respect to the inner workings and risks represented by each entity or activity within a schedule. This correlation is the initial theoretical extension that is required to identify where risk resides within construction projects, allocate and commoditize it, and achieve actual tradability.

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Effects of phonological and phonetic information of vowels on perception of prosodic prominence in English

  • Suyeon Im
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates how the phonological and phonetic information of vowels influences prosodic prominence among linguistically untrained listeners using public speech in American English. We first examined the speech material's phonetic realization of vowels (i.e., maximum F0, F0 range, phone rate [as a measure of duration considering the speech rate of the utterance], and mean intensity). Results showed that the high vowels /i/ and /u/ likely had the highest max F0, while the low vowels /æ/ and /ɑ/ tended to have the highest mean intensity. Both high and low vowels had similarly high phone rates. Next, we examined the effects of the vowels' phonological and phonetic information on listeners' perceptions of prosodic prominence. The results showed that vowels significantly affected the likelihood of perceived prominence independent of acoustic cues. The high and low vowels affected probability of perceived prominence less than the mid vowels /ɛ/ and /ʌ/, although the former two were more likely to be phonetically enhanced in the speech than the latter. Overall, these results suggest that perceptions of prosodic prominence in English are not directly influenced by signal-driven factors (i.e., vowels' acoustic information) but are mediated by expectation-driven factors (e.g., vowels' phonological information).

A Study on the Optimization of State Tying Acoustic Models using Mixture Gaussian Clustering (혼합 가우시안 군집화를 이용한 상태공유 음향모델 최적화)

  • Ann, Tae-Ock
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SP
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2005
  • This paper describes how the state tying model based on the decision tree which is one of Acoustic models used for speech recognition optimizes the model by reducing the number of mixture Gaussians of the output probability distribution. The state tying modeling uses a finite set of questions which is possible to include the phonological knowledge and the likelihood based decision criteria. And the recognition rate can be improved by increasing the number of mixture Gaussians of the output probability distribution. In this paper, we'll reduce the number of mixture Gaussians at the highest point of recognition rate by clustering the Gaussians. Bhattacharyya and Euclidean method will be used for the distance measure needed when clustering. And after calculating the mean and variance between the pair of lowest distance, the new Gaussians are created. The parameters for the new Gaussians are derived from the parameters of the Gaussians from which it is born. Experiments have been performed using the STOCKNAME (1,680) databases. And the test results show that the proposed method using Bhattacharyya distance measure maintains their recognition rate at $97.2\%$ and reduces the ratio of the number of mixture Gaussians by $1.0\%$. And the method using Euclidean distance measure shows that it maintains the recognition rate at $96.9\%$ and reduces the ratio of the number of mixture Gaussians by $1.0\%$. Then the methods can optimize the state tying model.

Analysis of Burn Severity in Large-fire Area Using SPOT5 Images and Field Survey Data (SPOT5영상과 현장조사자료를 융합한 대형산불지역의 피해강도 분석)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Kim, Kyongha;Lee, Sangwoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.114-124
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    • 2014
  • For classifying fire damaged areas and analyzing burn severity of two large-fire areas damaged over 100 ha in 2011, three methods were employed utilized supervised classification, unsupervised classification and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In this paper, the post-fire imageries of SPOT were used to compute the Maximum Likelihood (MLC), Minimum Distance (MIN), ISODATA, K-means, NDVI and to evaluate large-scale patterns of burn severity from 1 m to 5 m spatial resolutions. The result of the accuracy verification on burn severity from satellite images showed that average overall accuracy was 88.38 % and the Kappa coefficient was 0.8147. To compare the accuracy between burn severity and field survey at Uljin and Youngduk, two large fire sites were selected as study areas, and forty-four sampling plots were assigned in each study area for field survey. The burn severities of the study areas were estimated by analyzing burn severity (BS) classes from SPOT images taken one month after the occurrence of the fire. The applicability of composite burn index (CBI) was validated with a correlation analysis between field survey data and burn severity classified by SPOT5, and by their confusion matrix. The result showed that correlation between field survey data and BS by SPOT5 were closely correlated in both Uljin (r = -0.544 and p<0.01) and Youngduk (r = -0.616 and p<0.01). Thus, this result supported that the proposed burn severity analysis is an adequate method to measure burn severity of large fire areas in Korea.

Population Structure of Korean Paraplagusia japonica (Cynoglossidae) Based on Morphological and Molecular Markers (한국산 흑대기 Paraplagusia japonica (참서대과)의 형태 및 분자 마커에 의한 집단구조)

  • Park, Gyeong Hyun;Kim, Jin-Koo
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2022
  • The cynoglossid fishes are popular for food in the world including Korea, China and Japan, and among them, Paraplagusia japonica lives all over the sea of Korea. In order to establish appropriate management measure, it is essential to clarify population structure of P. japonica from the morphological and molecular perspectives. We collected a total of 132 individuals of P. japonica from six localities in Korea between 2008 and 2021. Canonical discriminant analysis results showed that the West Sea population (Incheon) slightly differed from the South (Tongyeong, Busan) and East Sea populations (Pohang, Donghae, Sokcho). Similar results were also shown in Kruskal-Wallis test of meristic characters. Furthermore, neighbor-joining and maximum-likelihood trees based on 849 base pairs of mitochondrial DNA cytochrome b sequences showed that P. japonica was divided into two lineages (designated as A and B) with a high significance (Φst=0.0781, P<0.001). Interestingly, however, the two lineages in the admixture area (South-East Sea) were not different in morphological characters. Our results suggest that P. japonica had undergone differentiated history during the Late Pleistocene, but secondary contact may occur at the admixture area.

A Short form of the Gray-Wheelwright Test (단축형 그레이-휠라이트 검사)

  • Ju-Kab Lee;Sung-Hyun Kim;Yong-Wook Shin
    • Sim-seong Yeon-gu
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.61-80
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    • 2018
  • We investigated whether the 81 items of the Gray-Wheelwright test correctly measure the concept of Jung's typology and aimed to refine the test. Participants (n=431) completed the Gray-Wheelwright test, and the results were analyzed using factor analysis with the varimax rotation and the maximum likelihood extraction method. A pair of opposing attitudes, introversion/extroversion, or one of the two pairs of opposing functional types, thinking/feeling or intuition/sensation, was labeled to the extracted factor according to the majority type of the items in the factor. The minority items or items not included in any factors were excluded from making a short form of the Gray-Wheelwright test with 45 items. We used intraclass correlation (ICC) coefficient and Cronbach's alpha for the test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the test, respectively. The newly developed short form of the Gray-Wheelwright test measured the Jung's personality types well, which was comparable to the original one while reducing time and effort required for the testing.

Legal Review of Regulatory Guidelines for Medical Advertisements Online (인터넷 의료광고의 규제방향에 대한 법적 검토)

  • Lee, Kyeoung-Kwon
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.269-308
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    • 2008
  • The contemporary age is a period of PR for the self. Regardless of how good the quality of goods or services offered is, if it is not made known to the buyers, a sell is impossible. As a result, the contemporary man is flooded with advertisements and is living in a time of over-saturated information. This is not much different in the medical services sector, as it too is experiencing an overflow of information due to the expansion of advertisement approaches to include not only the previous positive-method, but also the negative-method. In tandem, recent advancements in electronics and information technology has made possible a rapid increase in then number of internet advertisements. However, outmoded medical law, which was created to regulate newspapers and billboards, is still being applied to regulate today's modem medical advertisements. At the same time, collateral ordinances such as "corrective statutes for signs and advertisements" are not sufficient in providing the necessary regulatory countermeasures. In the midst of all this, as IPTV is scheduled to be broadcast nationwide starting next year, and with the market for search advertisements and internet advertisements annually growing at a rapid pace, it has become evermore urgent to come up with an adequate regulatory measure. Consequently, it is necessary to look into the possibility of restricting the medium and content of internet medical advertisements as well as realistic schemes for its realization. In particular, regulatory measures that take into consideration the special characteristics of internet advertisements should be found, and the necessity of an prior deliberation procedure and the likelihood of introducing a certification system should be examined.

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Effect of Observation Window at Peripheral Intravenous Catheter Site on Early Recognition of Infiltration among Hospitalized Children (아동의 말초정맥관 삽입 부위 관찰창 확보가 침윤조기감지에 미치는 효과)

  • Jeong, Ihn Sook;Park, Soon Mi;Park, Kyung Ju
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the effect of an observation window (OW) at peripheral intravenous (IV) catheter sites on early detection of IV infiltration among hospitalized children. Methods: This was a retrospective observational study with history control group design. Participants were children who had IV infiltration after peripheral catheterization when hospitalized from January to May, 2014 and January to May, 2015 at a children's hospital located in Yangsan city, Korea. The 193 patients, who were hospitalized from January to May, 2014 formed the control group and did not have OW, and the 167 patients, who were hospitalized from January to May, 2015 formed the window group and had OW. Data were analyzed using ${\chi}^2$-test, independent samples t-test and multiple logistic regression. Results: First stage IV infiltration was 39.5% for the window group and 25.9% for the control group, which was significantly different (p=.007). The likelihood of $2^{nd}$ stage and above IV infiltration decreased by 44% in the window group, which was significantly different (p=.014). Conclusion: OW at the peripheral IV catheter site was found to be an effective measure in early recognition of IV infiltration. Considering the effect of OW, we recommend that nurses should make an OW with transparent dressing during stabilization of the IV catheter site in hospitalized children in clinical settings.

A Real-Time Embedded Speech Recognition System

  • Nam, Sang-Yep;Lee, Chun-Woo;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, In-Jung
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2002.07a
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    • pp.690-693
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    • 2002
  • According to the growth of communication biz, embedded market rapidly developing in domestic and overseas. Embedded system can be used in various way such as wire and wireless communication equipment or information products. There are lots of developing performance applying speech recognition to embedded system, for instance, PDA, PCS, CDMA-2000 or IMT-2000. This study implement minimum memory of speech recognition engine and DB for apply real time embedded system. The implement measure of speech recognition equipment to fit on embedded system is like following. At first, DC element is removed from Input voice and then a compensation of high frequency was achieved by pre-emphasis with coefficients value, 0.97 and constitute division data as same size as 256 sample by lapped shift method. Through by Levinson - Durbin Algorithm, these data can get linear predictive coefficient and again, using Cepstrum - Transformer attain feature vectors. During HMM training, We used Baum-Welch reestimation Algorithm for each words training and can get the recognition result from executed likelihood method on each words. The used speech data is using 40 speech command data and 10 digits extracted form each 15 of male and female speaker spoken menu control command of Embedded system. Since, in many times, ARM CPU is adopted in embedded system, it's peformed porting the speech recognition engine on ARM core evaluation board. And do the recognition test with select set 1 and set 3 parameter that has good recognition rate on commander and no digit after the several tests using by 5 proposal recognition parameter sets. The recognition engine of recognition rate shows 95%, speech commander recognizer shows 96% and digits recognizer shows 94%.

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