• Title/Summary/Keyword: Likelihood Analysis

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Do Previous Promotion Awards Affect Current Decisions? Investigation of Intertemporal Correlations of Personnel Decisions

  • Kim, Jonghwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the intertemporal patterns in personnel decisions made between a supervisor and a subordinate to understand potential supervisor bias in the decisions. A correlation between the current and the most recent personnel decisions made for a subordinate by a current supervisor captures certain relationship-embedded and time-invariant factors in effect. The characteristics speak to the nature of a supervisor bias arising from a relationship, or favoritism. Design/methodology/approach - This study manually collects the executive profile data from annual reports of key Samsung Group affiliates and compile a longitudinal sample of 3,675 executive-years. It mainly explores the logistic regression analysis. Findings - The study finds that a supervisor' previous promotion award to a subordinate does not improve but decreases the likelihood of promotions in ensuing years, suggesting the containment of favoritism; and that the time since the last promotion award to a subordinate by the current supervisor increases the likelihood of both promotions and dismissals of the subordinate. Research implications or Originality - The findings are generally consistent with the theory suggesting that incentive schemes that align interests between an individual and an organization will contain the form of a supervisor bias.

The Impact of Interfirm Linkages on Chinese MNEs' Entry into Foreign Markets

  • Su, Hang;Hong, Sungjin
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.119-142
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    • 2022
  • This paper uses social network theory and the internationalization process model (IPM) to determine how external network linkages influence the location choices of multinational enterprise from emerging economies (EMNEs); specifically, whether past alliance experience influences location choices and its impact on the subsequent entry of MNEs from emerging economies. This paper applies survival analysis using initial and secondary investments from 2,000 Chinese A-share listed companies that entered 90 countries between 1997 and 2018 to analyze both the initial and subsequent entries of Chinese outward foreign direct investments (OFDIs) in major host countries. The findings indicate that an MNE's previous experience with a company from a particular country will increase the likelihood of an initial investment in that country. Previous alliance experience may accelerate the foreign investment process of EMNE and stimulate firms making a commitment to a position in a foreign network, regardless of cultural distance and stage of internationalization. Alliance before initial investment may increase the likelihood and speed of entering a host country as wholly owned subsidiaries and that network linkages not only significantly influence the internationalization process of small and medium-sized enterprises, as indicated by the IPM, but also that of large listed firms.

Proposal of Parameter Range that Offered Optimal Performance in the Coastal Morphodynamic Model (XBeach) Through GLUE

  • Bae, Hyunwoo;Do, Kideok;Kim, Inho;Chang, Sungyeol
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.251-269
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    • 2022
  • The process-based XBeach model has numerous empirical parameters because of insufficient understanding of hydrodynamics and sediment transport on the nearshore; hence, it is necessary to calibrate parameters to apply to various study areas and wave conditions. Therefore, the calibration process of parameters is essential for the improvement of model performance. Generally, the trial-and-error method is widely used; however, this method is passive and limited to various and comprehensive parameter ranges. In this study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was used to estimate the optimal range of three parameters (gamma, facua, and gamma2) using morphological field data collected in Maengbang beach during the four typhoons that struck from September to October 2019. The model performance and optimal range of empirical parameters were evaluated using Brier Skill Score (BSS) along with the baseline profiles, sensitivity, and likelihood density analysis of BSS in the GLUE tools. Accordingly, the optimal parameter combinations were derived when facua was less than 0.15 and simulated well the shifting shape, from crescentic sand bar to alongshore uniform sand bars in the surf zone of Maengbang beach after storm impact. However, the erosion and accretion patterns nearby in the surf zone and shoreline remain challenges in the XBeach model.

Factors Influencing Unplanned Hospital Readmission among Medical Aid Community Care Program Participants (재가의료급여 시범사업 대상자의 재입원에 미치는 영향: 일반적 특성, 일상생활수행능력, 서비스 이용을 중심으로)

  • Yim, Eun Shil;Na, Young-Kyoon;Kim, Areum;Kim, Kibeom;Kim, Bomin
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Rural Health Nursing
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study identifies the factors influencing unplanned readmissions among participants of the medical aid community care pilot program. Methods: This descriptive study analyzed data from 1,013 participants in a medical aid community care pilot program. Data were analyzed using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The presence of mental illness, injury-related conditions, long-term care grades, and activities of daily living scores are key factors influencing the likelihood of readmission. In particular, the presence of a mental disorder or an injury-related condition increased the probability of readmission, whereas individuals with long-term care grades 1~2 showed a decreased likelihood of readmission. Conclusion: This study emphasizes the importance of enhancing the management of mental and injury-related conditions, effective utilization of long-term care services, and improvement of ADL scores to reduce readmission. These findings offer crucial insights for enhancing the efficiency of home medical care benefit programs and sustainable expansion of services.

Advances in Load-Sharing Parameter Estimation for Reliability Systems (시스템 신뢰도 계산을 위한 로드쉐어링 모수 추정에 관한 고찰)

  • Hyoungtae Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2024
  • This paper chronicles the evolution of load-sharing parameter estimation methodologies, with a particular focus on the significant contributions made by Kim and Kvam (2004) and Park (2012). Kim and Kvam's pioneering work underscored the inherent challenges in deriving closed-form solutions for load-share parameters, which necessitated the use of sophisticated numerical optimization techniques. Park's research, on the other hand, provided groundbreaking closed-form solutions and extended the theoretical framework to accommodate more general distributions of component lifetimes. This was achieved by incorporating EM-type methods for maximum likelihood estimation, which represented a significant advancement in the field. Unlike previous efforts, this paper zeroes in on the specific characteristics and advantages of closed-form solutions for load-share parameters within reliability systems. Much like the basic Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model enhances the understanding of real-life inventory systems dynamics, our analysis aims to thoroughly explore the conditions under which these closed-form solutions are valid. We investigate their stability, robustness, and applicability to various types of systems. Through this comprehensive study, we aspire to provide a deep understanding of the practical implications and potential benefits of these solutions. Building on previous advancements, our research further examines the robustness of these solutions in diverse reliability contexts, aiming to shed light on their practical relevance and utility in real-world applications.

Clinical utility of auditory perceptual assessments in the discrimination of a diplophonic voice (이중음성 판별에 있어 청지각적 평가의 임상적 유용성)

  • Bae, Inho;Kwon, Soonbok
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.75-81
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    • 2018
  • Diplophonia is generally defined as the perception of more than one fundamental frequency component in a voice. Its perceptual aspect has traditionally been used to evaluate diplophonia because the perceptions can be easily evaluated, but there are limitations in the validity of the reliability of the intra- and inter-raters, examination situation, and variation of voice sample. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to confirm the reliability and accuracy of auditory perceptual evaluation by comparing non-invasive indirect assessment methods (sound waveform and EGG analysis), and to identify their usefulness with diplophonia. A total of 28 diplophonic voices and 39 non-periodic voices were assessed. Three raters assessed the diplophonia by performing an auditory perception evaluation and identifying the quasi-periodic perturbations of the acoustic waveform and EGG. Among the three discrimination methods, intra- and inter-rater reliability, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were examined, and the McNemar test was performed to compare the discriminant agreement. The accuracy of the auditory perceptual evaluation (86.57%) was not significantly different from that of sound waveform acoustic (88.06%), but it was significantly different from that of EGG (83.33%). The reading time (6.02 s) for the auditory perceptual evaluation was significantly different from that for sound waveform analysis (30.15 s) and EGG analysis (16.41 s). In the discrimination of diplophonia, auditory perceptual evaluation has sufficient reliability and accuracy as compared to sound waveform and EGG. Since immediate feedback is possible, auditory perceptual evaluation is more convenient. Therefore, it can continue to be used as a tool to discriminate diplophonia in clinical practice.

Analysis of multi-center bladder cancer survival data using variable-selection method of multi-level frailty models (다수준 프레일티모형 변수선택법을 이용한 다기관 방광암 생존자료분석)

  • Kim, Bohyeon;Ha, Il Do;Lee, Donghwan
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.499-510
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    • 2016
  • It is very important to select relevant variables in regression models for survival analysis. In this paper, we introduce a penalized variable-selection procedure in multi-level frailty models based on the "frailtyHL" R package (Ha et al., 2012). Here, the estimation procedure of models is based on the penalized hierarchical likelihood, and three penalty functions (LASSO, SCAD and HL) are considered. The proposed methods are illustrated with multi-country/multi-center bladder cancer survival data from the EORTC in Belgium. We compare the results of three variable-selection methods and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. In particular, the results of data analysis showed that the SCAD and HL methods select well important variables than in the LASSO method.

Analysis of the Likelihood of Successful Defibrillation as a Change of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Transition using Support Vector Machine (서포트 벡터 머신을 이용한 심폐소생술 변이의 변화에 따른 제세동 성공률 분석)

  • Jang, Seung-Jin;Hwang, Sung-Oh;Lee, Hyun-Sook;Yoon, Young-Ro
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.556-568
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    • 2007
  • Unsatisfied results of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) estimates were caused by the fact that the predictability of the predictors was insufficient. This unmet estimate of the predictors may be affected by transitional events due to behaviors which occur during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). We thus hypothesized that the discrepancy of ROSC estimates found in statistical characteristics due to transitional CPR events, may affect the performance of the predictors, and that the performance of the classifier dichotomizing between ROSC and No-ROSC might be different during CPR. In a canine model (n=18) of prolonged ventricular fibrillation (VF), standard CPR was provided with administration of two doses of epinephrine 0 min or 3 min later of the onset of CPR. For the analysis of the likelihood of a successful defibrillation during CPR, Support Vector Classification was adopted to evaluate statistical peculiarity combining time and frequency based predictors: median frequency, frequency band-limited power spectrum, mean segment amplitude, and zero crossing rates. The worst predictable period showed below about 1 min after the onset of CPR, and the best predictable period could be observed from about 1.5 min later of the administering epinephrine through 2.0-2.2 min. As hypothesized, the discrepancy of statistical characteristics of the predictors was reflected in the differences of the classification performance during CPR. These results represent a major improvement in defibrillation prediction can be achieved by a specific timing of the analysis, as a change in CPR transition.

At-site Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bayesian MCMC: I. Comparative study for construction of Prior distribution (Bayesian MCMC를 이용한 저수량 점 빈도분석: I. 사전분포의 적용성 비교)

  • Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong;Park, Kyung-Shin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1121-1124
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    • 2008
  • 저수분석(low flow analysis)은 수자원공학에서 중요한 분야 중 하나이며, 특히 저수량 빈도분석(low flow frequency analysis)의 결과는 저수(貯水)용량의 설계, 물 수급계획, 오염원의 배치 및 관개와 생태계의 보존을 위한 수량과 수질의 관리에 중요하게 사용된다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 저수량 빈도분석을 위한 점빈도분석을 수행하였으며, 특히 빈도분석에 있어서의 불확실성을 탐색하기 위하여 Bayesian 방법을 적용하고 그 결과를 기존에 사용되던 불확실성 탐색방법과 비교하였다. 본 논문의 I편에서는 Bayesian 방법 중 사전분포(prior distribution)와 우도함수(likelihood function)의 복잡성에 상관없이 계산이 가능한 Bayesian MCMC(Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 방법과 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 사용하기 위한 여러과정의 이론적 배경과 Bayesian 방법에서 가장 중요한 요소인 사전분포를 구축하고 이를 비교 및 평가하였다. 고려된 사전분포는 자료에 기반하지 않은 사전분포와 자료에 기반한 사전분포로써 두 사전분포를 이용하여 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 수행하고 그 결과를 비교하여 저수량 빈도분석에 합리적인 사전분포를 선정하였다. 또한 알고리즘의 수행과정에서 필요한 제안분포(proposal distribution)를 적용하여 그에 따른 알고리즘의 효율성을 채택률(acceptance rate)을 산정하여 검증해 보았다. 사전분포의 분석 결과, 자료에 기반한 사전분포가 자료에 기반하지 않은 사전분포보다 정확성 및 불확실성의 표현에 있어서 우수한 결과를 제시하는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 채택률을 이용한 알고리즘의 효용성 역시 기존 연구자들이 제시하였던 만족스러운 범위를 가지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 최종적으로 선정된 사전분포는 본 연구의 II편에서 Bayesian MCMC 방법의 사전분포로 이용되었으며, 그 결과를 기존 불확실성의 추정방법의 하나인 2차 근사식을 이용한 최우추정(maximum likelihood estimation)방법의 결과와 비교하였다.

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Limited Diagnostic Value of microRNAs for Detecting Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-analysis

  • Zhou, Xuan-Jun;Dong, Zhao-Gang;Yang, Yong-Mei;Du, Lu-Tao;Zhang, Xin;Wang, Chuan-Xin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.4699-4704
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    • 2013
  • Background: MicroRNAs have been demonstrated to play important roles in the development and progression of colorectal cancer. Several studies utilizing microRNAs as diagnostic biomarkers for colorectal cancer (CRC) have been reported. The aim of this meta-analysis was to comprehensively and quantitatively summarize the diagnostic value of microRNAs for detecting colorectal cancer. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library for published studies that used microRNAs as biomarkers for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer. Summary estimates for sensitivity, specificity and other measures of accuracy of microRNAs in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer were calculated using the bivariate random effects model. A summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was also generated to summarize the overall effectiveness of the test. Result: Thirteen studies from twelve published articles met the inclusion criteria and were included. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odd ratio of microRNAs for the diagnosis of colorectal cancer were 0.81 (95%CI: 0.79-0.84), 0.78 (95%CI: 0.75-0.82), 4.14 (95%CI: 2.90-5.92), 0.24 (95%CI: 0.19-0.30), and 19.2 (95%CI: 11.7-31.5), respectively. The area under the SROC curve was 0.89. Conclusions: The current evidence suggests that the microRNAs test might not be used alone as a screening tool for CRC. Combining microRNAs testing with other conventional tests such as FOBT may improve the diagnostic accuracy for detecting CRC.