• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.1321-1329
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• 1993

본 연구에서는 이들보다 매우 간단한 IS법, 즉 초기 변형률법(ISM: initial strain method)에 의한 크리프 수명예측식을 고안하여, 현재 화력발전용 고압 로터강 에 사용되고 있는 1%Cr-Mo-V강과 발전소 효율향상을 위해 최근 국내최초로 개발된 12% Cr강에 대하여 도출하였고, 이 도출식이 앞에서 언급한 여러 파라메트에 의한 결과와 비교 평가하여 장시간 강도 및 수명예측식으로 사용될 수 있음을 입증하였다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.18-30
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• 2022

Predicting remaining useful life (RUL) becomes significant to implement prognostics and health management of industrial systems. The relevant studies have contributed to creating RUL prediction models and validating their acceptable performance; however, they are confined to drive reasonable preventive maintenance strategies derived from and connected with such predictive models. This paper proposes a data-driven preventive maintenance method that predicts RUL of industrial systems and determines the optimal replacement time intervals to lead to cost minimization in preventive maintenance. The proposed method comprises: (1) generating RUL prediction models through learning historical process data by using machine learning techniques including random forest and extreme gradient boosting, and (2) applying the system failure time derived from the RUL prediction models to the Weibull distribution-based minimum-repair block replacement model for finding the cost-optimal block replacement time. The paper includes a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method using an open dataset, wherein sensor data are generated and recorded from turbofan engine systems.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.46-53
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• 2022

This paper presents the design and manufacture of a Solid State Relay (SSR) life prediction device that can predict the lifetime of an SSR, which is a key component of a glass forming machine. The lifetime of an SSR is over when the current supplied to the relay is overcurrent (20 A or higher), and the operating time is 100,000 h or longer. Therefore, the life prediction device for the SSR was designed using DSP to accurately read the current and temperature values from the current and temperature sensors, respectively. The characteristic test of the manufactured non-contact relay life prediction device confirmed that the current and temperature were safely measured. Thus, the SSR lifetime prediction device developed in this study can be used to predict the lifetime of an SSR attached to a glass forming machine.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2014

Gr. 91 steel is used for the major structural components of Generation-IV reactor systems, such as a very high temperature reactor(VHTR) and sodium-cooled fast reactor(SFR). Since these structures are designed for up to 60 years at elevated temperatures, the prediction of long-term creep life is important for a design application of Gr. 91 steel. In this study, a number of creep rupture data were collected through world-wide literature surveys, and using these data, the long-term creep life was predicted in terms of three methods: the single-C method in Larson-Miller(L-M) parameter, multi-C constant method in the L-M parameter, and a modified method("sinh" equation) in the L-M parameter. The results of the creep-life prediction were compared using the standard deviation of error value, respectively. Modified method proposed by the "sinh" equation revealed better agreement in creep life prediction than the single-C L-M method.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.557-568
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• 2009

Fatigue tests for extremely thick plates require a great deal of manufacturing time and are expensive to perform. Therefore, if predictions could be made through simulation models such as an artificial neural network (ANN), manufacturing time and costs could be greatly reduced. In order to verify the effects of fatigue strength depending on the various factors in SM520C-TMC steels, this study constructed an ANN and conducted the learning process using the parameters of calculated stress concentration factor, thickness and input heat energy, etc. The results showed that the ANN could be applied to the prediction of fatigue life.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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• pp.1883-1888
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• 2000

In this paper a computer aided analysis method is proposed for durability assessment in the early design stages using dynamic analysis, stress analysis and fatigue life prediction method. From dynamic analysis of a vehicle suspension system, dynamic load time histories of a suspension component are calculated. From the dynamic load time histories and the stress of the suspension component, a dynamic stress time history at the critical location is produced using the superposition principle. Using linear damage law and cycle counting method, fatigue life cycle is calculated. The predicted fatigue life cycle is verified by experimental durability tests.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.1019-1032
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• 2013

최근 급격한 기대수명의 증가에 따라 미래 복지정책 등에 커다란 영향을 주는 장래 사망력의 정확한 예측은 중요한 이슈가 되고 있다. 사망력의 정확한 예측을 위하여 최적의 추정모형의 선택도 중요하지만 사망력에 대한 시계열 적용기간도 매우 중요한 이슈다. 이는 우리나라의 사망률 시계열이 짧고, 특히 1982년 이전 자료가 다소 불완전해서 이에 대한 고려가 필수적이기 때문이다. 본 논문에서는 우리나라 사망력 시계열을 기간에 따라 2개의 그룹(1976~2005년, 1983~2005년)으로 나누어서, 남녀별로 LC모형과 LC 코호트효과 확장모형에 대한 모수 추정값, 사망력지수와 코호트지수의 모형화 및 예측, 장래 기대수명의 예측 적합력을 각각 분석한 후 향후에 장래 기대수명 추계시 고려할 시사점을 제시하고자 한다.

• 반도체디스플레이기술학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.45-48
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• 2013

The electronic device, such as flat panel display (FPD), is very important in our life as a means of communication between humans. Liquid crystal display (LCD), which is categorized as a flat panel display, has been used in many display products, especially in TV industry. An LED TV is composed of several electrical components, such as liquid critical module (LCM), analog to digital convertor (AD), power supplier, and inverter board. These modules are very vulnerable to particulate contamination, and causing malfunction or visibility degradation. In this study, we developed a test method for prediction of LCM's lifetime. The test system consists of carbon particle generation flame, dilution system, test chamber, and particle concentration monitoring instrument. Since the carbon particles are the most abundant in the atmosphere and easily absorb light, soot particles are used as a challenging material for this test. The concentration of generated soot particles is set around 4,000,000 #/cc, which is 400 times higher than that of usual atmospheric particles. Through this experiment, we deduced the relationship between the dust concentration and life time of the test specimen.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2007

The danger of self-ignition of single base propellants will increase with time. Therefore, a good prediction of the safe storage time is very important. In order to determine the remaining shelf-life of the propellants, the content of stabilizer is determined. The propellants stored under normal storage conditions about 10 to 18 years were investigated and accelerated aging test was carried out by storing propellant sample at higher temperature. Finally, we analyzed the results by various methods in order to show the best way to predict the realistic shelf-life. The safe storage life of the propellants will be 24 years, at least 15 years. In case of applying Arrhenius's law, using the reaction rate constant at 28$^{\circ}C$ to 30$^{\circ}C$ to predict the shelf-life by accelerated aging test is reasonable for a good prediction.

• International Journal of Railway
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• 제1권3호
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• pp.122-127
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• 2008

Rubber components are widely used in many application such as vibration isolators, damping, ride quality. Rubber spring is used in primary suspension system for railway vehicle. Characteristics and useful life prediction of rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. Non-linear properties of rubber material which are described as strain energy function are important parameter to design and evaluate of rubber spring. These are determined by physical tests which are uniaxial tension, equi-biaxial tension and pure shear test. The computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for rubber spring. In order to investigate the useful life, the acceleration test were carried out. Acceleration test results changes as the threshold are used for assessment of the useful life and time to threshold value were plotted against reciprocal of absolute temperature to give the Arrhenius plot. By using the acceleration test, several useful life prediction for rubber spring were proposed.