• 제목/요약/키워드: Life time estimation

검색결과 405건 처리시간 0.027초

LCC 분석을 통한 공조설비 내구연한 산정 (An Estimation of the Economic Life Expectancy of the Building Service Equipment with LCC Analysis)

  • 강성주;김용기;이태원
    • 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한설비공학회 2007년도 동계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.316-321
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    • 2007
  • It is difficult for a superintendent or an operator of building service systems and equipment to decide the reasonable time for management of himself due to the shortage of his specialty for repair or replacement of a part of or whole equipment. But The reliable life expectancies for various building service equipment have not been prepared yet. This study shows the difference of optimal economic life and the decrease of running cost and energy consumption according to management level of the building equipment by the LCC analysis. The numerical model for building HVAC system was composed and analyses were performed for several parameters with management.

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An Exploratory Study on the New Product Demand Curve Estimation Using Online Auction Data

  • Shim Seon-Young;Lee Byung-Tae
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • As the importance of time-based competition is increasing, information systems for supporting the immediate decision making is strongly required. Especially high -tech product firms are under extreme pressure of rapid response to the demand side due to relatively short life cycle of the product. Therefore, the objective of our research is proposing a framework of estimating demand curve based on e-auction data, which is extremely easy to access and well reflect the limited demand curve in that channel. Firstly, we identify the advantages of using e-auction data for full demand curve estimation and then verify it using Agent-Eased-Modeling and Tobin's censored regression model.

유한요소 해석을 이용한 선박용 엔진 프레임 박스 용접부의 피로수명 예측 (Fatigue Life Estimation for Welded Parts of Marine Vessel Engine Frame Box by Utilizing Finite Element Analysis)

  • 이재훈;최종호;조진래;이인수
    • 한국전산구조공학회논문집
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.573-580
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    • 2007
  • 본 논문은 선박용 엔진인 S60MC-C의 프레임 박스 용접부에 대한 피로수명 예측을 위한 수치적 기법을 제시한다. 피로 수명 평가를 위해 싸이클 동안의 동적인 응력변화를 계산해내야 하며, 이에 따라 선행된 연구에서 얻은 엔진의 한 싸이클 동안의 하중 조건으로 상용 유한요소해석 프로그램을 이용한 구조해석을 실시하였다. 구조해석은 8단계에 대해 이루어 졌으며, 그 결과를 바탕으로 프레임 박스 용접부의 피로수명 평가를 위해서 HSS(Hot spot stress), Reservoir counting method, Palmgren-miner's rule을 적용하였다. 결과적으로 구조해석을 통한 대상 엔진의 취약부와 과잉 설계부를 확인하였고, 피로수명의 평가를 통해 설계의 적절성 여부를 평가하였다.

설계.시공일괄입찰공사 및 대안입찰공사의 생애주기비용 분석 및 평가체계 개선방향 (Improvement Directions for Life Cycle Cost Analysis and Evaluation in the Design-Build and Alternative Bidding Projects)

  • 강태경;이유섭
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제8권1호
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    • pp.97-102
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    • 2008
  • The report of the Korean Board of Audit and Inspection(BAI) on May 2007 indicates the problems of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis and evaluation in the Design-Build(Turn-Key) and alternative bidding system. The point which the report indicates is that the cost estimation system for LCC analysis has nothing in common each other and there's no consistency among the repair cycle and ratio per facilities parts. For solving these problems, BAI demands the establishment of the guidelines for LCC analysis and evaluation from the competent authority Korean Ministry of Construction And Transportation(MOCT). The objective of this study is to develop the improvement directions for LCC analysis and evaluation which are suitable to the public construction projects especially for the Design-Build and alternative bidding system in Korea. For this study, the LCC related raws and regulations, LCC analysis guidelines of public cooperations, actual condition of LCC analysis and evaluation which include, the elements of LCC, the estimation rules of the initial cost and the maintenance cost, the analysis standards of time value of money, etc. are investigated to provide the improvement directions for LCC analysis and evaluation.

Calibration and uncertainty analysis of integrated surface-subsurface model using iterative ensemble smoother for regional scale surface water-groundwater interaction modeling

  • Bisrat Ayalew Yifru;Seoro Lee;Woon Ji Park;Kyoung Jae Lim
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.287-287
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    • 2023
  • Surface water-groundwater interaction (SWGI) is an important hydrological process that influences both the quantity and quality of water resources. However, regional scale SWGI model calibration and uncertainty analysis have been a challenge because integrated models inherently carry a vast number of parameters, modeling assumptions, and inputs, potentially leaving little time and budget to explore questions related to model performance and forecasting. In this study, we have proposed the application of iterative ensemble smoother (IES) for uncertainty analysis and calibration of the widely used integrated surface-subsurface model, SWAT-MODFLOW. SWAT-MODFLOW integrates Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a three-dimensional finite difference model (MODFLOW). The model was calibrated using a parameter estimation tool (PEST). The major advantage of the employed IES is that the number of model runs required for the calibration of an ensemble is independent of the number of adjustable parameters. The pilot point approach was followed to calibrate the aquifer parameters, namely hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield. The parameter estimation process for the SWAT model focused primarily on surface-related parameters. The uncertainties both in the streamflow and groundwater level were assessed. The work presented provides valuable insights for future endeavors in coupled surface-subsurface modeling, data collection, model development, and informed decision-making.

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22kV 전력케이블의 열화 판정에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Remain Life with Aging in 22kV CV cable)

  • 이관우;목영수;김보경;박복기;박대희
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전기물성,응용부문
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    • pp.19-21
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we studied on life-decision of underground cable of live-lines state. As all equipments have been wear, underground cables decided design-life on the whole 30 years because underground cable have been occurred aging as time goes. CV cable has been become about 30 years after installation in the South Korea, is come to a important point of time with estimation about life. Study target cable is 22 kV CV cables in this point of view and installation cable is about 10 years before and behind. Measurement method used dc leakage method of live-lines state that applied voltage of 50V in neutral point and data is analyzing result that is measured during 5 years. In this result, insulation resistance could confirm that change according to season and cause is effect of humidity, seasons and load current. Also, according as data is gone aging, insulation resistance by Weibull distribution could confirm functionally its decrease. As a result, the aging speed of cable that water tree is gone could confirm fastness very. Numerical analysis result, cable that water tree is not gone could confirm that life of cable that has passed 10 years remains about $10{\sim}20$ years.

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반응표면을 사용한 터빈 휠의 균열성장 수명에 대한 신뢰성 평가 (Reliability Estimation for Crack Growth Life of Turbine Wheel Using Response Surface)

  • 장병욱;박정선
    • 한국항공우주학회지
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.336-345
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    • 2012
  • 균열성장 수명에는 구조 형상의 복잡함, 작용하중의 변동, 재료물성 분포 등의 영향으로 불확실성이 포함된다. 따라서 이러한 불확실 인자들에 대해 계산된 수명의 강건성을 확보하기 위해서는 신뢰성 평가가 요구된다. 하지만 형상이 복잡한 터빈 휠의 경우 균열성장 수명 계산의 주요 변수인 응력확대계수의 표현식을 알기 힘들며, 이를 유한요소해석으로 계산하므로 수명 계산 및 신뢰성 평가에 많은 시간이 요구된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 균열성장 수명의 반응표면을 사용함으로써 신뢰성 평가의 효율성을 높일 수 있음을 고찰하였다. 이를 위해 형상이 복잡한 터빈 휠을 모델로 유한요소해석으로 생성된 응력확대계수 데이터를 회귀분석하여 근사모델을 생성한 후 응력확대계수의 회귀계수, Paris 계수, 초기균열길이에 대한 균열성장 수명의 반응표면을 생성하여 신뢰성해석에 사용하였다. 신뢰성해석은 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션으로 수행하였으며, 연구결과 반응표면의 사용이 신뢰성 평가 시 필요한 균열성장 수명의 계산량을 효과적으로 줄일 수 있었다.

주부의 연금수급권의 문제점과 개선방안 : 우리나라 국민연금제도에 기초하여 (Exclusion of Housewives in the National Pension Plan in South Korea and Suggestions for Improvement)

  • 문숙재;윤소영;최자경
    • 가정과삶의질연구
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.61-72
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    • 2003
  • This study examines the problematic fact that most housewives are excluded from receiving the benefits of the National Pension Plan in South Korea. The National Pension Plan assigns no value to housework or household production, which in turn discourages full-time housewives from participating voluntarily in the Plan. In this article, I propose to utilize Credit Splitting and Pension Sharing in order to take into account full-time housewives' economic contribution in the National Pension Plan. In this article, I also discuss the ranges and application methods of the Credit Splitting and Pension Sharing. For this study, I have analyzed the data of 11,967 unemployed married women living with spouses published in“Research Data on Everyday Life Time Usage”by the Korea National Statistical Office in 1999. The value of the full-time housewives' labor varies depending on the methods of estimation. However, all estimated values exceed the average value assigned to the housewives by the National Pension Corporation. It is clear that full-time housewives' unpaid labor contributes a great deal to the formation of household property and wealth, which is a valid reason for Pension Sharing and Credit Splitting. This article also provides logical factors to consider in the process of Pension Sharing and Credit Splitting, which can be used for developing computerized software to determine a full-time housewives' labor value at the time of divorce or for any other purpose.

The Estimation of the Dielectric Strength Decrease of the Solid-solid Interfaces by using the Applied Voltage to Breakdown Time Characteristics

  • Shin, Cheol-Gi;Bae, Duck-Kweon
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.278-282
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    • 2007
  • In the complex insulation system that is used in extra high voltage(EHV) devices, according to the trend for electric power equipment of high capacity and reduction of its size, macro interfaces between two different bulk materials which affect the stability of insulation system exist inevitably. In this paper, the dielectric strength decrease of the macro interfaces between epoxy and ethylene propylene diene terpolymer(EPDM) was estimated by using the applied voltage to breakdown time characteristics. Firstly, the AC short time dielectric strength of specimens was measured at room temperature. Then, the breakdown time was measured under the applied constant voltage which is 70% of short time breakdown voltage. With these processes, the life exponent n was determined by inverse power law, and the long time breakdown voltage can be evaluated. The best condition of the interface was LOS(low viscosity(350 cSt) silicone oil spread specimen). When 30 years last on the specimens, the breakdown voltage was estimated 44% of the short time breakdown voltage.

A New Algorithm for Automated Modeling of Seasonal Time Series Using Box-Jenkins Techniques

  • Song, Qiang;Esogbue, Augustine O.
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제7권1호
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 2008
  • As an extension of a previous work by the authors (Song and Esogbue, 2006), a new algorithm for automated modeling of nonstationary seasonal time series is presented in this paper. Issues relative to the methodology for building automatically seasonal time series models and periodic time series models are addressed. This is achieved by inspecting the trend, estimating the seasonality, determining the orders of the model, and estimating the parameters. As in our previous work, the major instruments used in the model identification process are correlograms of the modeling errors while the least square method is used for parameter estimation. We provide numerical illustrations of the performance of the new algorithms with respect to building both seasonal time series and periodic time series models. Additionally, we consider forecasting and exercise the models on some sample time series problems found in the literature as well as real life problems drawn from the retail industry. In each instance, the models are built automatically avoiding the necessity of any human intervention.