• Title/Summary/Keyword: Life time estimation

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A Comparison of Reliability Factors of Software Reliability Model Following Lifetime Distribution Dependent on Pareto and Erlang Shape Parameters (파레토 및 어랑 형상모수에 의존한 수명분포를 따르는 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 대한 신뢰도 특성요인 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee Cheul;Moon, Song Chul
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2017
  • Software reliability is one of the most elementary and important problems in software development In order to find the software failure occurrence, the instantaneous failure rate function in the Poisson process can have a constant, incremental or decreasing tendency independently of the failure time. In this study, we compared the reliability performance of the software reliability model using the parameters of Pareto life distribution with the intensity decreasing pattern and the shape parameter of Erlang life distribution with the intensity increasing and decreasing pattern in the software product testing. In order to identify the software failure environment, the parametric estimation was applied to the maximum likelihood estimation method. Therefore, in this paper, we compare and evaluate software reliability by applying software failure time data. The reliability of the Erlang and Pareto life models is shown to be higher than that of the Pareto lifetime distribution model when the shape parameter is higher and the Erlang model is more reliable when the shape parameter is higher. Through this study, the software design department will be able to help the software design by applying various life distribution and shape parameters, and providing basic knowledge using software failure analysis.

Life Time Estimation of Biodiesel and Biodiesel Blend Fuel from the Oxidation Stability Analysis (바이오디젤 및 바이오디젤 혼합연료의 산화특성 연구에 의한 사용 수명 예측)

  • Jung, Chung-Sub;Dong, Jong-In;Lee, Young-Jae
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.06a
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    • pp.579-584
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    • 2007
  • 대두유로부터 생산된 바이오디젤과 바이오디젤 혼합 연료유를 대상으로 지방산메틸에스터 함량과 화학적 분석을 통해 산화 특성과 오일의 수명 예측 연구를 수행하였다. 바이오디젤, 경유, BD5, BD20은 산화가 진행될수록 산가(Acid number), 동점도(Kinematic Viscosity) 및 밀도(Density)는 증가하였다. 산가 측정결과의 활용에 의해 임의의 온도조건에서 정확한 사용수명을 예측하기 위하여 화학속도론에 의거하여 각각의 연료에 대한 사용수명식을 도출하였다. 도출된 사용수명식으로부터 바이오디젤이 가장 빠르게 산화가 진행되었고 바이오디젤 혼합량이 증가할수록 사용수명이 단축되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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Point and interval estimation for a simple step-stress model with Type-I censored data from geometric distribution

  • Arefi, Ahmad;Razmkhah, Mostafa
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2017
  • The estimation problem of expected time to failure of units is studied in a discrete set up. A simple step-stress accelerated life testing is considered with a Type-I censored sample from geometric distribution that is a commonly used distribution to model the lifetime of a device in discrete case. Maximum likelihood estimators as well as the associated distributions are derived. Exact, approximate and bootstrap approaches construct confidence intervals that are compared via a simulation study. Optimal confidence intervals are suggested in view of the expected width and coverage probability criteria. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the results of the paper. Finally, some conclusions are stated.

Life Time Estimation of Biodiesel and Biodiesel Blend Fuel from the Oxidation Stability Analysis (바이오디젤 및 바이오디젤 혼합연료의 산화특성 연구에 의한 사용 수명 예측)

  • Jung, Chung-Sub;Lee, Young-Jae;Dong, Jong-In
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.3 no.2 s.10
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2007
  • 대두유로부터 생산된 바이오디젤과 바이오디젤 혼합 연료유를 대상으로 지방산메틸에스터 함량과 화학적 분석을 통해 산화 특성과 오일의 수명 예측 연구를 수행하였다. 바이오디젤, 경유, BD5, BD20은 산화가 진행될수록 산가(Acid number), 동점도(Kinematic Viscosity) 및 밀도(Density)는 증가하였다. 산가 측정결과의 활용에 의해 임의의 온도조건에서 정확한 사용수명을 예측하기 위하여 화학속도론에 의거하여 각각의 연료에 대한 사용수명식을 도출하였다. 도출된 사용수명식으로부터 바이오디젤이 가장 빠르게 산화가 진행되었고 바이오디젤 혼합량이 증가할수록 사용수명이 단축되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

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A Study on the Estimation of Shelf Life for Fuze MTSQ KM577A1 from ASRP Data (저장탄약신뢰성평가 데이터를 이용한 기계식시한신관 KM577A1 저장수명 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Dongnyok;Yoon, Keunsig
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to estimate shelf life of fuze MTSQ (Mechanical Time & Super Quick) KM577A1 from Ammunition Stockpile Reliability Program (ASRP) data. Methods: For many years, ammunition test data had been gathered from ASRP. In this study, lot selection criteria and reliability score of functioning time for fuze are proposed. Reliability score of functioning time and failure data are used to estimate shelf life. Results: The results of this study are as follows; The failure modes of fuze MTSQ KM577A1 are dud, inverse function and mechanical time functioning failure (not operating in intended time). Dud and inverse function are major failure modes. Fuze MTSQ KM577A1's shelf life ($B_5$) is estimated 18.2 years conservatively. Conclusion: Degradation of chemical components in fuze MTSQ KM577A1 is major factor for its reliability. And shelf life ($B_5$) of fuze MTSQ KM577A1 is estimated 18.2 years conservatively.

The Predicton of the Shelf-life of Packaged Meals (Kim Pab) Marketed in Covenience Stores Using Simulation Study (모의실험을 통한 편의점 판매용 김밥 도시락의 유통기한 예측)

  • 곽동경;김성희
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 1996
  • Based on microbiological-chemical test results under simulated time-temperature conditions, total plate count, coliform, and volatile basic nitrogen were selected as effective quality indicators for estimating probable shelf-life on Kim Pab dosirak marketed in convenience stores, and shelf-life at each storage temperature was calculated from regression equation between effective quality indicator standard limit and storage time. Estimated shelf lives of Kim Pab Dosirak were 17, 3 and 2 hours respectively under 1$0^{\circ}C$, 2$0^{\circ}C$ and 3$0^{\circ}C$. Because shelf-life was especially affected by intial values, regression analysis between initial effective quality indicator values and storage hours was performed for the estimation of probable shelf-life on Kim Pab during storage at 10, 20, or 3$0^{\circ}C$.

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Service Life Prediction of Components or Materials Based on Accelerated Degradation Tests (가속열화시험에 의한 부품·소재 사용수명 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Young Il
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Accelerated degradation tests can speed time to market and reduce the test time and costs associated with long term reliability tests to verify the required service life of a product or material. This paper proposes a service life prediction method for components or materials using an accelerated degradation tests based on the relationships between temperature and the rate of failure-causing chemical reaction. Methods: The relationship between performance degradation and the rate of a failure-causing chemical reaction is assumed and least square estimation is used to estimate model parameters from the degradation model. Results: Methods of obtaining acceleration factors and predicting service life using the degradation model are presented and a numerical example is provided. Conclusion: Service life prediction of a component or material is possible at an early stage of the degradation test by using the proposed method.

Clamp Type-dependent HCF Life Estimation of the Overhead Cable for Distribution Grids (고정 방식 차이에 따른 배전 가공전선의 고주기피로 수명 특성 비교 평가)

  • Lee, Dooyoung;Jung, Jinseung;Kim, Youngdae;Bang, Jiye
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.241-248
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    • 2021
  • High cycle fatigue life for the cables with two different types of clamps is estimated comparatively through acceleration testing. The high cycle fatigue fracture of overhead lines is caused mainly by the aeolian vibration which is induced by vortex shedding. It is necessary to manage the integrity of cables continuedly considering that the aeolian vibration is unavoidable since it occurs in steady and relatively low wind velocity. Two types of clamps which are largely used for overhead lines of the distribution grids are selected and failure data are obtained by step stress testing with a electrodynamic shaker with them. The inverse power law is assumed to describe the stress-life relationship and the fatigue limit at any specified life is supposed to follow Weibull distribution. The life of the cable is defined as the number of cycles to the time that one of strands is completely broken. Finally, the fatigue limits of the cables with two clamp types are estimated at the reference life of 500 Mcycles and compared each other based on a bending vibration amplitude.

Genomic Insights into the Rice Blast Fungus through Estimation of Gene Emergence Time in Phylogenetic Context

  • Choi, Jaeyoung;Lee, Jong-Joon;Jeon, Junhyun
    • Mycobiology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.361-369
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    • 2018
  • The rice blast fungus, Magnaporthe oryzae, is an important pathogen of rice plants. It is well known that genes encoded in the genome have different evolutionary histories that are related to their functions. Phylostratigraphy is a method that correlates the evolutionary origin of genes with evolutionary transitions. Here we applied phylostratigraphy to partition total gene content of M. oryzae into distinct classes (phylostrata), which we designated PS1 to PS7, based on estimation of their emergence time. Genes in individual phylostrata did not show significant biases in their global distribution among seven chromosomes, but at the local level, clustering of genes belonging to the same phylostratum was observed. Our phylostrata-wide analysis of genes revealed that genes in the same phylostratum tend to be similar in many physical and functional characteristics such as gene length and structure, GC contents, codon adaptation index, and level of transcription, which correlates with biological functions in evolutionary context. We also found that a significant proportion of genes in the genome are orphans, for which no orthologs can be detected in the database. Among them, we narrowed down to seven orphan genes having transcriptional and translational evidences, and showed that one of them is implicated in asexual reproduction and virulence, suggesting ongoing evolution in this fungus through lineage-specific genes. Our results provide genomic basis for linking functions of pathogenicity factors and gene emergence time.

DALY Estimation Approaches: Understanding and Using the Incidence-based Approach and the Prevalence-based Approach

  • Kim, Young-Eun;Jung, Yoon-Sun;Ock, Minsu;Yoon, Seok-Jun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2022
  • Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates may vary according to factors such as the standard life expectancy, age weighting, time preference and discount rate, calculation of disability weights, and selection of the estimation method. DALY estimation methods are divided into the following 3 approaches: the incidence-based approach, the pure prevalence-based approach, and the hybrid approach. These 3 DALY estimation approaches each reflect different perspectives on the burden of disease using unique characteristics, based on which the selection of a suitable approach may vary by the purpose of the study. The Global Burden of Disease studies, which previously estimated DALYs using the incidence-based approach, switched to using the hybrid approach in 2010, while the National Burden of Disease studies in Korea still mainly apply the incidence-based approach. In order to increase comparability with other international burden of disease studies, more DALY studies using the prevalence-based approach need to be conducted in Korea. However, with the limitations of the hybrid approach in mind, it is necessary to conduct more research using a disease classification system suitable for Korea. Furthermore, more detailed and valid data sources should be established before conducting studies using a broader variety of DALY estimation approaches. This review study will help researchers on burden of disease use an appropriate DALY estimation approach and will contribute to enhancing researchers' ability to critically interpret burden of disease studies.