• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.1-6
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• 2018

Reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. Reliability targets are used to ensure that safety levels are met relevant limit states in the stage of design and maintenance. The target reliability for ultimate limit states such as large leak and rupture were developed using tolerable risk criteria for individual and societal risk. This paper shows the reliability target can be met through the implementation of periodic maintenance measures during the life cycle of the pipelines. The case study involves the calculation of the failure probability due to equipment impact, the calculation of the failure probability due to corrosion, and the estimation the re-inspection interval for domestic natural gas transmission pipelines.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.799-811
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• 2006

As an alternative measure to replace reactive stance with proactive one, a risk based management scheme has been commonly applied to enhance public satisfaction on water service by providing a higher creditable solution to handle a rehabilitation problem of pipe having high potential risk of leaks. This study intended to examine the feasibility of a simulation model to predict a recurrence probability of pipe leaks. As a branch of the data mining technique, probabilistic neural network (PNN) algorithm was applied to infer the extent of leaking recurrence probability of water network. PNN model could classify the leaking level of each unit segment of the pipe network. Pipe material, diameter, C value, road width, pressure, installation age as input variable and 5 classes by pipe leaking probability as output variable were built in PNN model. The study results indicated that it is important to pay higher attention to the pipe segment with the leak record. By increase the hydraulic pipe pressure to meet the required water demand from each node, simulation results indicated that about 6.9% of total number of pipe would additionally be classified into higher class of recurrence risk than present as the reference year. Consequently, it was convinced that the application of PNN model incorporated with a data base management system of pipe network to manage municipal water distribution network could make a promise to enhance the management efficiency by providing the essential knowledge for decision making rehabilitation of network.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.1-10
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• 2021

Semiconductor Photo Resist (PR) automation equipment uses a mixture of several flammable substances, and when it leaks during the process, it can lead to various accidents, therefore, risk assessment is necessary. This study analyzed the frequency of leakage of Acetone and PGMEA used in PR automation equipment and the frequency at which such leakage could lead to a fire accident through the frequency analysis method, and evaluated the need for additional risk reduction measures in the current facility. Based on the process leak data and ignition probability data of IOGP, leak frequency analysis and ignition probability were derived, and the frequency of actual fire accidents was analyzed by combining them. The frequency of material leakage in semiconductor PR process is 7.30E-03/year, and fire accidents can occur by acetone that exists above the flash point when the material is leaked, the frequency was calculated at the level of 1.24E-05/year. According to the UK HSE, for a major accident occurring with a frequency of 1.24E-05/year, it is defined as "Broadly Acceptable", a level that does not require additional measures for risk reduction when it causes 7 or less deaths, and due to the process operated by two people, no additional risk reduction are required.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.52-65
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• 2021

In this study, authors analyzed the vapor cloud explosion induced by propane leak at the PEMIX Terminal, which is the propane storage facility outside of Mexico City. TNT equivalence mass for the leaked 4750 kg propane was estimated to be 9398 kg. Blast parameters such as peak overpressure, positive phase duration, and impact at 40-400 (m) away from the center of the explosion were calculated by applying TNT Equivalency Method and Multi-Energy Method. The probability of damage due to lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact by applying the probit function obtained using blast parameters was evaluated. The peak overpressure obtained using Multi-Energy Method was found to be greater than the peak overpressure obtained by applying the TNT Equivalency Method at all distances considered, but it was evaluated that there was no significant difference from the points above 200 m. The peak overpressure obtained by Multi-Energy Method was computed to assess the extent of damage to the structure, and it was shown that structures within 100 m of the explosion center would collapse completely, and that the glasses of the structures 400 m away would be almost broken. The probability of death due to lung damage was shown to vary depending on a human body's position located in the propagating direction of shock wave, and if there is a reflecting surface in the immediate surroundings of a human body, the probability of death was estimated to be the greatest. The impact of shock wave on lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact was evaluated and found to affect whole-body impact < lung damage < eardrum rupture

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.565-578
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• 2016

A probabilistic based systems approach is addressed in this study for the reliability prediction of solid rocket motors (SRM). To achieve this goal, quantitative Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is employed to determine the reliability of components, which are integrated into the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to obtain the system reliability. The quantitative FMECA is implemented by burden and capability approach when they are available. Otherwise, the semi-quantitative FMECA is taken using the failure rate handbook. Among the many failure modes in the SRM, four most important problems are chosen to illustrate the burden and capability approach, which are the rupture, fracture of the case, and leak due to the jointed bolt and O-ring seal failure. Four algorithms are employed to determine the failure probability of these problems, and compared with those by the Monte Carlo Simulation as well as the commercial code NESSUS for verification. Overall, the study offers a comprehensive treatment of the reliability practice for the SRM development, and may be useful across the wide range of propulsion systems in the aerospace community.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.349-359
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• 2017

During the past 25 years, in the context of probabilistic safety assessment, efforts have been directed towards establishment of comprehensive pipe failure event databases as a foundation for exploratory research to better understand how to effectively organize a piping reliability analysis task. The focused pipe failure database development efforts have progressed well with the development of piping reliability analysis frameworks that utilize the full body of service experience data, fracture mechanics analysis insights, expert elicitation results that are rolled into an integrated and risk-informed approach to the estimation of piping reliability parameters with full recognition of the embedded uncertainties. The discussion in this paper builds on a major collection of operating experience data (more than 11,000 pipe failure records) and the associated lessons learned from data analysis and data applications spanning three decades. The piping reliability analysis lessons learned have been obtained from the derivation of pipe leak and rupture frequencies for corrosion resistant piping in a raw water environment, loss-of-coolant-accident frequencies given degradation mitigation, high-energy pipe break analysis, moderate-energy pipe break analysis, and numerous plant-specific applications of a statistical piping reliability model framework. Conclusions are presented regarding the feasibility of determining and incorporating aging effects into probabilistic safety assessment models.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.228-240
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• 1991

Many experimental data of fatigue crack propagation show that the fatigue crack propagation process is stochastic. Therefore, the study on the crack propagation must be based on the probabilistic approach. In the present paper, fatigue crack propagation process is assumed to be a discrete Markov process and the method is developed, which can evaluate the reliability of the structural component by using Markov chain model(Unit step B-model) suggested by Bogdanoff. In this method, leak failure, plastic collapse and brittle fracture of the critical component are taken as failure modes, and the effects of initial crack distribution, periodic and non-periodic inspection on the probability of failure are considered. In this method, an equivalent load value for random loading such as wave load is used to facilitate the analysis. Finally some calculations are carried out in order to show the usefulness and the applicability of this method. And then some remarks on this method are mentioned.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.7 no.1 s.18
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• pp.19-23
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• 2003

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the BLEVE probability of LP gas storage tanks which are relatively more dangerous, by the deductive calculating method using the results of Birk's pilot tank test and the required heat capacity of BLEVE. The result that BLEVEs can occur in only above 43.68 percent of liquid filling level under $600^{\circ}C$ of tank pate temperature and $53^{\circ}C$ of inner liquid temperature, was obtained and will be useful for preventing the BLEVE of LP gas storage tanks in fire sites. In addition, this research showed conditions of external leak and fire causing BLEVE, based on 15ton capacity of LP gas tank which has the same specifications as those in Puchon LP gas filling station accident. The result of the calculation is that the minimum pool fire conditions of BLEVE are above 7.2mm equivalent diameter under a liquid release condition and above 17.6mm equivalent diameter under a two-phase release condition. In the end, the result of calculating the pool size corresponding the above conditions using EFFECTS version 2.1, concludes that a minimum of 3.3 meters of diameter and 10.4 meters of height should be needed for BLEVE outbreak.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.16-26
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• 2017

In chemical industry plants, the raw material, intermediate and final products can leak from unstable joints of flanges and valves as well as cracks of storage tanks. From the safety and economic standpoints, it is very important to understand whether leaks or not and leakage rate. The OGI(optical gas image) technique can tell gas leakages, but cannot give the leakage rate. Some special OGI devices can show the kind of gas in different color concentration in different darkness. Therefore the research on quantification of OGI is necessary. In this research, we have developed the practical method to quantify OGI of methane leakage. To estimate 3-dimensional gas leakages distribution from 2-dimensional OGI, the Monte Carlo Probability technique was applied. First the number of points in the area of width(2.54 cm) and length(2.54 cm) in OGI was counted. Total no of each experiment was compared with the measured flow rate. The correlation average between total points and measured flow rate was found to be 0.980. Reversely we estimated the leakage rate of OGI by use of the correlation table. The results showed good agreement between the estimation value and the measured value.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.929-934
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• 2000

Objective : The results of secondary transsphenoidal surgery(TSS) for either residual or recurring pituitary adenomas have been reported to be unfavorable. To evaluate the effectiveness of secondary TSS, we analyzed the surgical results of residual or recurred pituitary adenomas in patients who underwent secondary TSS from 1992 to 1998. Material and Methods : Among the 95 patients who underwent TSS during this period, 14(15%) received repeated TSS. Two of the 14 patients underwent three TSS. Among the 11 patients with pituitary adenomas, three had nonfunctioning tumors ; six prolachnomas ; two GH-secreting adenomas. The remaining three patieats had craniopharyngioma, pituitary abscess and hemangioendothelioma respectively. The interval between the two surgical procedures ranged from one week to 33 months(mean ; 12 months). Causes of the secondary TSS were tumor recurrence in 11 patients, intentional staged operation in three, persistent disease despite medical therapy and CSF leak after initial operation in one respectively. Treatments prior to secondary TSS were medical treatment only in eight patients. Results : During the repeated operationtss some adhesion was noted in septal mucous membrane. The sphenoid cavity was filled with fibrous tissue which correlated with the methods of reconstruction of the sellar floor at the previous operation. There was no statistically significant difference in success rate of surgery between the initial and the second TSS(86% vs 81%). The complication rate was similar between the two procedures. There was no statistically significant factors affecting the results of second TSS. Conclusion : Transsphenoidal reoperation was regarded as a suitable approach for treating recurrent pituitary adenomas in spite of some degree of operative difficulties. In patients with transsphenoidally resectable tumor residuals or recurrences confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging, remissions can be obtained with high probability, especially in secondary surgery after an staged decompression.