• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2017

P-PIE is a program developed to estimate failure probability of pipes and pressure vessels considering fatigue and stress corrosion crack growth. Using the program, crack growth simulation was performed with an initially existing crack in order to examine the effects of initial crack depth distribution on the leak probability of pipes. In the simulation stress corrosion crack growth was considered and several crack depth distribution models were used. From the results it was found that the initial crack depth distribution gives great effect on the leak probability of pipes. The log-normal distribution proposed by Khaleel and Simonen gives lower leak probability compared other exponential distribution models. The effects of the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections on the leak probability were also examined and it was recognized that the number and the quality of pre-service and in-service inspections are also give great effect on the leak probability. In order to reduce the leak probability of pipes in plants it is very important to improve the quality of inspections. When in-service inspection is performed every 10 years and the quality of inspection is above the very good level, the leak probability shows nearly constant value after the first inspection for an initially existing crack.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.43-49
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• 2010

The piping failure probability of the reactor coolant system in Kori unit 1 was evaluated considering stress corrosion cracking. The P-PIE program (Probabilistic Piping Integrity Evaluation Program) developed in this study was used in the analysis. The effect of some variables such as oxygen concentration during start up and steady state operation, and operating temperature, which are related with stress corrosion cracking, on the piping failure probabilities was investigated. The effects of leak detection capability, the size of big leak, piping loops, and reactor types on the piping failure probability were also investigated. The results show that (1) LOCA (loss of coolant accident) probability of Kori unit 1 is extremely low, (2) leak probability is sensitive to oxygen concentration during steady state operation and operating temperature, while not sensitive to the oxygen concentration during start up, and (3) the piping thickness and operating temperature play important roles in the leak probabilities of the cold leg in 4 reactor types having same inner diameter.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.6-12
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• 2011

The failure probabilities of pipes in nuclear power plants due to stress corrosion are obtained using the P-PIE program, which is developed for evaluating failure probability of pipes based on the existing PRAISE program. Leak, big leak and LOCA(loss of coolant accident) probabilities are calculated as a function of operating time for several pipes in a domestic nuclear plant. The sensitivity analysis is also performed to find out the important parameters for the failure of pipes due to stress corrosion. The results show that the steady state oxygen concentration and steady state temperature are important parameters and failure probability is very low when the oxygen concentration is maintained according to the regulation.

• 비파괴검사학회지
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.44-52
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• 2014

스마트워터그리드 시스템의 지하 상수도 배관 관리에 있어서 누수는 중요한 요소인데, 특히 그 배관이 낡았고 인구가 많은 도시의 포장도로나 다양한 건축물의 아래에 매설된 경우이다. 이러한 누수지점의 정확한 탐지는 이들 배관의 효율적인 운용을 위해 필수적이기 때문에, 주파수 대역 변화, 창 필터 그리고 확률에 바탕한 새로운 누수지점 탐지 방법론을 본 논문을 통해 제안한다. 정확한 누수지점의 추정은 누수음에 의한 센서 신호간의 시간 지연 추정의 정확성에 따라 결정된다는 것이 알려져 있기 때문에 중요한 주파수에 가중치를 부여하는 몇 가지의 창 함수들이 개선된 상호상관함수를 계산하기 위해 적용되었다. 실제 주철로 제작된 길이 253.9 m의 지하매설 상수도 배관에 대해 새로운 방법론을 적용한 실험결과는 향상된 누수지점 탐지 성능을 보여 주었다.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.41-55
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• 2018

Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

• 한국진공학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.235-243
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• 2007

지금 국내에서는 토카막 핵융합실험장치, 대전류 중성입자빔 실험장치 및 우주 모의실험실 같은 거대시설의 건설과 운용이 활발하다. 이런 시설의 핵심설비인 대형 진공용기는 중소형 용기에 비해 누설 가능성은 높은 반면 기체누설을 검사하는 것은 까다롭다. 중소형 용기에서 널리 사용되는 헬륨누설검사 방법을 어떻게 효율적으로 이런 대형 용기에 적용할 수 있는가 알아보기 위해, 다양한 가상적인 누설검사 시스템들을 구성하고 압력분포 및 헬륨 분압을 계산하여 주어진 장치조건에서 적절한 검사 시스템을 찾는 방법에 대해 논한다.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.25-30
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• 2015

In the present study, complex leakage probabilities of nuclear pipes due to fatigue and stress corrosion cracking are evaluated by using the PINTIN(Piping INTegrity INner flaws) that is developed based on the existing PRAISE(Piping Reliability Analysis Including Seismic Events) program. With regard to the aging and crack instability, small leak and big leak probabilities are calculated for several pipes in a reactor coolant system of domestic nuclear plant. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is also performed to find out the effect of parameters for the leakage of pipes, which shows the coolant temperature is the most influencing parameter.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.739-754
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• 2019

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability estimation procedure for the underground gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Methods: Corrosion is one of the major causes of the gas pipeline failure. Several failure forms caused by corrosion have been studied. Among them, small leak and burst are considered in this paper. The composite failure of the two is defined by limit state function, and it is expressed with pipe parameters. Given a modified corrosion dataset, in order to obtain reliability estimations, the method of first order and second moment is adopted because of its simplicity. The computation processes are conducted with MATLAB coding. Results: According to numerical results, the probability of composite failure is affected by both small leak and burst. In particular, when corrosion depth stays at low level, it is consistent with the probability of burst failure. On the contrary, it is more influenced by the small leak failure as corrosion depth is increasing. In such case, the probability of composite failure is fast approaching to the safety limit. Conclusion: By considering the composite failure, more practical predictions of remaining life can be obtained. The proposed method is useful for maintenance planning of the underground gas pipeline.

• 한국압력기기공학회 논문집
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2012

According to recent research on leak-rate estimates to assess rupture probabilities of nuclear piping which contains a circumferential surface/through-wall cracks due to PWSCC, i.e., xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) program, it has been revealed that the use of crack shape with an idealized circumferential through-wall crack during actual crack growth can lead to overestimate of the leak-rate. Thus, for accurate estimation of the leak-rate during crack growth, the more realistic crack shape that can simulate the crack shape transition from surface crack to through-wall crack should be used. In this context, in the present study, the elastic crack opening displacement of slanted circumferential through-wall crack in thick-walled cylinder was proposed based on 3-dimensional elastic finite element fracture mechanics analyses. To propose the elastic crack opening displacement of slanted circumferential through-wall crack in thick-walled cylinder, the geometric variables affecting crack opening displacement, i.e., thickness of cylinder, reference inner crack length and slant crack ratio were systematically varied. In terms of loading conditions, axial tension, global bending moment and internal pressure were considered. The present results can be applied to calculate the leak-rate considering more realistic crack shape transition from surface crack to idealized through-wall crack, and can be expected to enhance current leak-rate estimation scheme, for instance, in xLPR program etc.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.136-142
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• 2014

Recently a new version of PRO-LOCA program was released. Using the program, failure probability of pipes can be evaluated considering fatigue and/or stress corrosion crack growth and the effects of various parameters on the integrity of pipes in nuclear power plants can be evaluated quantitatively. The analysis results can be used to establish an inspection plan and to examine the effects of important parameters in a maintenance plan. In this study, sensitivity analyses were performed using the program for several important parameters including sampling method, initial crack size, number of initial fabrication flaws, operation temperature, inspection interval, operation temperature and nominal applied bending stress. The effect of parameters on the leak and rupture probability of pipes was evaluated due to fatigue or stress corrosion crack growth.