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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Usability of Open Source Software for Developing Records System : A Case of ICA AtoM (공개 소프트웨어를 이용한 기록시스템 구축가능성 연구 ICA AtoM을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Bo-Ram;Hwang, Jin-Hyun;Park, Min-Yung;Kim, Hyung-Hee;Choi, Dong-Woon;Choi, Yun-Jin;Yim, Jin-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.39
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    • pp.193-228
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, as well as management of public records, interest in the private archive of large and small is growing. Dedicated archive has various types. In addition, lack of personnel and budget, personnel records management professional because the absence, that help you maintain these records in a systematic manner is not easy. Request to the system have continued to rise, but the budget and professionals in order to solve this problem are missing. As breakthrough of the burden to the system with archive dedicated, it introduces the trends and meaning of public recording system, and was examined in detail AtoM function. AtoM is public land can be made by a method that requires a Web service, the database server. Without restrictions, including the advantage of being available free of charge, by the application or operating system specific, installation and operation is convenient. In addition, compatibility, and is highly scalable, AtoM use and convenient archive of private experiencing a shortage of personnel and budget. Because in terms of data management, and excellent interoperability and search share, and use, it is possible in the future, it favors also documentary use through a network of inter-agency archives and private. In addition, Enhancements exhibition services through cooperation with Omeka, long-term storage through Archivematica, many discussion is needed. Public centered around the private area of the recording management spilling expanded, open-source software allows to balance the recording system will be able to play an important role. In addition, the efforts of academia and in the field, close collaboration between the open source recording system through a user study should be continued. Furthermore, co-operation and sharing of private archives expect come true.

The Characteristics of Dolmen Culture and Related Patterns during the End Phase in the Gyeongju Region (경주 지역 지석묘 문화의 특징과 종말기의 양상)

  • Lee, Soohong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.216-233
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    • 2020
  • This study set out to review tomb culture in the Gyeongju region during the Bronze Age, and also examine the patterns of dolmens during their end phase. For these purposes, the study analyzed 18 tomb relics from the Bronze Age and nine from the early Iron Age. Gyeongju belongs to the Geomdan-ri cultural zone. Approximately 120 tombs from the Bronze Age have been excavated in the Gyeongju region. There are fewer tombs than dwellings in the region, which is a general characteristic of the Geomdan-ri cultural zone. Although the number of tombs is small, the detailed structure of the dead body is varied. During the Bronze Age, tombs in the Gyeongju region were characterized by more prolific construction of pit tombs, dolmens with boundaries, and stacked stone altars than were the cases in other areas. There is a great possibility that the pit tombs in the Gyeongju region were influenced by their counterparts in the northeastern parts of North Korea, given the spindle whorl artifacts buried at the Dongsan-ri sites. Dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars are usually distributed in the Songguk-ri cultural zone, and it is peculiar that instances of these are found in large numbers in the Gyeongju region as part of the Geomdanri cultural zone. Even in the early Iron Age, the building of dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars continued in the Gyeongju region under the influence of the Bronze Age. A new group of people moved into the area, and they crafted ring-rimmed pottery and built wooden coffin tombs. In the early Iron Age, new rituals performed in high places also appeared, and were likely to provide venues for memorial services for heavenly gods in town-center areas. The Hwacheon-ri Mt. 251-1 relic and the Jukdong-ri relic are ruins that exhibit the aspect of rituals performed in high places well. In these rituals performed in high places, a stacked stone altar was built with the same form as the dolmens with boundaries, and a similar rock to the cover stone of a dolmen was used. People continued to build and use dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars while sustaining the Bronze Age traditions, even into the early Iron Age, because the authority of dolmens was maintained. Some dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars, known as being Bronze Age in origin, would have continued to be used in ritual practices until the early Iron Age. Entering the latter half of the second century B.C., wooden coffin tombs began to propagate. This was the time when the southern provinces, including the Gyeongju region, were included in the East Asian network, with the spread of ironware culture and the arrival of artifacts from central China. Around this time, dolmen culture faded into history with a new era beginning in its place.

Using Transportation Card Data to Analyze City Bus Use in the Ulsan Metropolitan City Area (교통카드를 활용한 시내버스의 현황 분석에 관한 연구 - 울산광역시 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Yang-won;Kim, Ik-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.603-611
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    • 2020
  • This study collected and analyzed transportation card data in order to better understand the operation and usage of city buses in Ulsan Metropolitan City in Korea. The analysis used quantitative and qualitative indicators according to the characteristics of the data, and also the categories were classified as general status, operational status, and satisfaction. The existing city bus survey method has limitations in terms of survey scale and in the survey process itself, which incurs various types of errors as well as requiring a lot of time and money to conduct. In particular, the bus means indicators calculated using transportation card data were analyzed to compensate for the shortcomings of the existing operational status survey methods that rely entirely on site surveys. The city bus index calculated by using the transportation card data involves quantitative operation status data related to the user, and this results in the advantage of being able to conduct a complete survey without any data loss in the data collection process. We took the transportation card data from the entire city bus network of Ulsan Metropolitan City on Wednesday April 3, 2019. The data included information about passenger numbers/types, bus types, bus stops, branches, bus operators, transfer information, and so on. From the data analysis, it was found that a total of 234,477 people used the city bus on the one day, of whom 88.6% were adults and 11.4% were students. In addition, the stop with the most passengers boarding and alighting was Industrial Tower (10,861 people), A total of 20,909 passengers got on and off during the peak evening period of 5 PM to 7 PM, and 13,903 passengers got on and off the No. 401 bus route. In addition, the top 26 routes in terms of the highest number of passengers occupied 50% of the total passengers, and the top five bus companies carried more than 70% of passengers, while 62.46% of the total routes carried less than 500 passengers per day. Overall, it can be said that this study has great significance in that it confirmed the possibility of replacing the existing survey method by analyzing city bus use by using transportation card data for Ulsan Metropolitan City. However, due to limitations in the collection of available data, analysis was performed only on one matched data, attempts to analyze time series data were not made, and the scope of analysis was limited because of not considering a methodology for efficiently analyzing large amounts of real-time data.

Assessing Middle School Students' Understanding of Radiative Equilibrium, the Greenhouse Effect, and Global Warming Through Their Interpretation of Heat Balance Data (열수지 자료 해석에서 드러난 중학생의 복사 평형, 온실 효과, 지구 온난화에 대한 이해)

  • Chung, Sueim;Yu, Eun-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.770-788
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    • 2021
  • This study aimed to determine whether middle school students could understand global warming and the greenhouse effect, and explain them in terms of global radiative equilibrium. From July 13 to July 24 in 2021, 118 students in the third grade of middle school, who completed a class module on 'atmosphere and weather', participated in an online assessment consisting of multiple-choice and written answers on radiative equilibrium, the greenhouse effect, and global warming; 97 complete responses were obtained. After analysis, it was found that over half the students (61.9%) correctly described the meaning of radiative equilibrium; however, their explanations frequently contained prior knowledge or specific examples outside of the presented data. The majority of the students (92.8%) knew that the greenhouse effect occurs within Earth's atmosphere, but many (32.0%) thought of the greenhouse effect as a state in which the radiative equilibrium is broken. Less than half the students (47.4%) answered correctly that radiative equilibrium occurs on both Earth and the Moon. Most of the students (69.1%) understood that atmospheric re-radiation is the cause of the greenhouse effect, but few (39.2%) answered correctly that the amount of surface radiation emitted is greater than the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth's surface. In addition, about half the students (49.5%) had a good understanding of the relationship between the increase in greenhouse gases and the absorption of atmospheric gases, and the resulting reradiation to the surface. However, when asked about greenhouse gases increases, their thoughts on surface emissions were very diverse; 14.4% said they increased, 9.3% said there was no change, 7.2% said they decreased, and 18.6% gave no response. Radiation equilibrium, the greenhouse effect, and global warming are a large semantic network connected by the balance and interaction of the Earth system. This can thus serve as a conceptual system for students to understand, apply, and interpret climate change caused by global warming. Therefore, with the current climate change crisis facing mankind, sophisticated program development and classroom experiences should be provided to encourage students to think scientifically and establish scientific concepts based on accurate understanding, with follow-up studies conducted to observe the effects.

A study on the effect of startup entrepreneurs' experience of industry-university cooperation through incubator organizations on organizational learning capability and innovation performance (벤처기업 창업가의 배태조직과 산학협력 경험이 조직학습역량과 혁신성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Deokyong;Bae, Sung Joo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.29-58
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    • 2022
  • Startups lack resources and manpower to build internal capabilities to strengthen market competitiveness; external cooperation such as joint research and networking plays is important. In this study, we analyzed the effect of startups' industry-university cooperation on organizational learning capability and innovation performance. Empirical results demonstrate the mechanism by which government R&D investment strengthens organizational learning capability and creates innovative results by promoting cooperation between startups and universities. First, industry-university cooperation strengthened organizational learning capability. An empirical analysis shows that startups increase internal capabilities through external cooperation. Second, startups' organizational learning capability had a significant effect on innovation performance. We analyze how organizations with high learning capabilities positively develop corporate innovation performance by having a culture of discovery and sharing new ideas. Finally, industry-university cooperation had different effects on organizational learning capability and innovation performance according to the previous experiences of startup founders. In particular, small- and medium-sized (startup) businesses and individual-based experience groups positively affected the creation of organizational learning capabilities and innovation performance through industry-university cooperation. Small- and medium-sized businesses and individual founders have a relatively small cooperative network with the outside world compared to founders of large companies, universities, and research institutes; therefore, they strengthen organizational learning capabilities through cooperation with universities. This study demonstrates that government should create policy inducements for cooperation with universities to maximize the R&D performance of startups. Criticism exists that lending support to startups and universities will hinder innovation performance; nevertheless, government investment plays a role in expanding intangible resources such as accumulating technologies, fostering high-quality human resources, and strengthening innovation networks. Therefore, the government should appropriately utilize the its authority to strengthen investment strategies for startup growth.

A Study on the Selection of Base Port and Establishment of International Cooperation System for Seafarer Rotation In case of Emergency - Focusing on the Service Network of HMM - (비상 시 선원교대를 위한 거점항만 선정과 국제협력 방안 - HMM 정기선을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Bo-ram;Lee, Hye-jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.275-285
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    • 2021
  • COVID-19 is threatening the safety of ships and seafarers by delaying seafarer rotation. Shipping companies and governments have a blindspot in case of the onboard environment of seafarers. An effective, alternative plan should be devised to eliminate the possibility of human accidents in an emergency that threatens the safety of seafarers. According to the survey of former and current seafarers, the most important factor in boarding life was safety, and the most necessary thing during emergencies was to secure smooth seafarer rotation rather than improve wages and welfare. By analyzing the major routes of national shipping companies by continent, ports with a large number of calls and a high Air Connectivity Index were selected as the base port. In addition, the route was designed for effective, domestic seafarer rotation during international shipping. Other countries must be consulted to establish a travel route linking ships, ports, and airports for the safe return of sailors to their home countries during an emergency. In addition, it is necessary to work together for the seafarers who are in trouble of seafarer rotation through cooperation with the International Maritime Organization(IMO). Starting with this, the government should have a monitoring system for the return and non-return routes as well as the number of seafarers on board. If such a system is established, it will be able to determine the response direction of our country's policy in case of an emergency. Along with the shipping company's ef orts to improve the treatment of seafarers, national and social attention will be needed to review domestic laws and improve awareness about seafarers.

An Analysis of the Trends in Academic Research on Invention Gifted Education (발명영재교육에 관한 학술연구 동향 분석)

  • Lee Minhye;Hillenblink Maximilian Ludwig
    • Journal of the International Relations & Interdisciplinary Education
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-28
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted to examine the quantitative trend of domestic studies in invention gifted education, identify the intrinsic meaning and connection attributes in these research analysis, and provide basic data to explore future development plans. To this end, 97 domestic academic papers were finally selected as "Invention Gifted Education" by the Korea Research and Information Service (RISS), technical statistical analysis was conducted with SPSS on publication year, author composition, researcher's affiliation and location area, and published journal. The trend, which had been on the rise since 2007, confirmed by academic papers on gifted education in invention, peaked at the time of the 3rd comprehensive plan for gifted education and has since declined again. As a result of technical statistical analysis of the author's characteristics, half of the papers were jointly published, followed by a number of independent authors. The papers published alone were identified as belonging to universities, research institutes, elementary schools, and middle schools, and the cooperative papers were many studies cooperated with young researchers and professional researchers, and only one collaborative study was conducted between young researchers. When looking at the regions and journals in which the Invention Gifted Education thesis was published, it was concentrated in some regions or journals, and the deviation was very large. As a result of language network analysis using academic paper keywords, creativity and programs were identified as meaningful keywords that showed top appearance, and the keyword pair with high co-appearance was invention gifted-creativity. The keyword of connection-centeredness at the top served as an intermediary for creativity, problem-solving, development, and company to expand to other research topics, and served as a research topic that could be expanded to various topics. In the case of mediation-centeredness, creativity, programs, and effects showed high mediation-centeredness, indicating that it is an important keyword that plays a role in mediating or mediating other keywords. Through these research results, national policy measures need to be prepared for the development of gifted education, and the need to create an invention ecological culture that can enhance teachers' expertise while increasing social responsibility for gifted education.

A Study on the Birthplace of Kang Jeungsan, Gaekmang-ri, and Neighboring Areas from a Feng Shui Perspective: Focused on the Theory of Connecting Geomantic Veins (상제 강세지 객망리 일대의 풍수지리적 의미에 관한 연구 -지맥의 연결과정을 통한 형기론을 중심으로-)

  • Shin Young-dae
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.46
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    • pp.69-122
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    • 2023
  • This study is an integral exploration of Feng Shui associated with the area around the birthplace of Kang Jeungsan, a sacred site of Daesoon Jinrihoe which holds that the Supreme God descended in human form at that location (through Kang Jeungsan). Through an on-site Feng Shui survey, the main focus of the research method was to explore the Feng Shui configurations around Kang Jeungsan's birthplace especially as it pertains to the connections among geomagnetic veins which lead to the Mount Shiru area. As a method of investigation, this study explored the Feng Shui of Gaekmang-ri Village and the geomantic veins leading up to Mount Shiru. This involved examining the landforms, topography, water flow, and geomantic veins of the area to reveal the overall Feng Shui configurations. Throughout the course of that on-site survey, this study first examined Mount Duseung and Mount Bangjang, also known as Mount Yeongju (sometimes collectively known as Mount Samshin), Mount Dongjuk, Mount Mangje-bong, Mount Maebong, and Mount Shiru. Then, this study stated some of the underlying issues through a scholarly approach based on various theories such as traditional geographical texts and theories on mountain-growth and water-flow from the perspective of Feng Shui. In particular, attention was paid to theoretical aspects of the uninterrupted and undulating flow of the terrain leading to Shiru Mountain. As a result, from a Feng Shui point of view, the connected network geomantic veins in the area of Kang Jeungsan's birthplace and the feng shui features and conditions were all examined through an on-site survey. The survey results revealed that the area forms a large Feng Shui site due to the vast interconnectivity among all the mountains that extend from the Honam vein and form organic relationships with one another. This even includes Mount Samshin in Honam. Considering the geographical conditions that formed a site that enabled harmony between divine beings and humankind, the surrounding place names also provide allusions to the understanding of the birth of Kang Jeungsan as the descent of Supreme God into the human world through the historical figure, Kang Jeungsan. This area is an ideal spot with a propitious spatial arrangement in terms of its Feng Shui. Feng Shui analysis reveals the site to be a place that holds an earth energy-hub transmitting a great energy of nature that cannot be measured by human power alone.

Strategy for Store Management Using SOM Based on RFM (RFM 기반 SOM을 이용한 매장관리 전략 도출)

  • Jeong, Yoon Jeong;Choi, Il Young;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Choi, Ju Choel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.93-112
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    • 2015
  • Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.