• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.617-641
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• 2014

Korean electricity market is a Cost-Based Pool (CBP) designed to minimize electricity production cost through cost by providing cost reduction incentives to generators. Generation companies have shown diverse efforts to reduce costs in CBP market such as procuring low-price fuels, installing high efficiency gas turbine and constructing power plants near the heavy-load site. Recently, as a way to improve CBP market, a proposal to exclude no-load cost from System Marginal Price (SMP) and to compensate generators ex post was suggested to Korea Power Exchange. This study analyzes the impact of excluding no-load cost from SMP on the cost reduction incentive of generators. We found that excluding no-load cost from SMP enhances the likelihood of decreasing the cost reduction incentives of LNG combined-cycle generators lying on the price-setting range.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.06a
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• pp.208-211
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• 2009

제4차 전력수급기본계획(2008-2022)과 제3차 신 재생에너지 기술개발 및 이용.보급계획에 의거하여 전력산업기반기금을 통해 우선 구매되는 풍력발전이 계통한계가격(SMP, System Marginal Price)에 미치는 영향을 점검하였다. 제4차 전력수급기본계획(2008-2022)에서 향후의 전원설비건설계획과 전력수요를 참고하고, 제3차 신 재생에너지 기술개발 및 이용 보급계획에 의거, 풍력발전보급계획을 반영하였다. 발전변동비의 변화는 미래의 화석연료변동에 따를 것으로 보아 명목상승률 3%, 6%, 그리고 8%의 경우를 검토하였다. 현재는 풍력발전용량이 전체발전용량에 비해 미미해서 SMP에 큰 변화를 가져다주지 못하고 있지만 2014년에는 SMP가 결정되는 구간이 LNG발전기에서 유연탄발전기로 옮겨감에 따라 SMP차이가 최대 20.02[\/KWh](발전 비용 명목 상승률8%)에 달하다가 2020년에는 다시 0[\/KWh](발전비용 명목상승률8%)으로 줄어드는 것으로 분석되었다.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2008.07a
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• pp.2263-2264
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• 2008

전 세계적으로 에너지 소비가 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 가운데 석유, LNG와 같은 에너지 가격 또한 꾸준히 증가하고 있다. 이에 따라 에너지 절약을 유도하고 전력생산원가를 절감하고 전력수급의 안정을 도모하기 위한 수요관리가 대두되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 기존의 자료를 토대로 선형, 비선형 회귀분석을 실시하여 2015까지의 에너지 회피비용과 고효율 조명기기의 보급량을 추정한다. 그 후 에너지 회피비용의 변화를 고려하지 않은 현행 방식과 에너지 회피비용의 변화를 고려한 수정된 방식을 비교하여 경제성 평가에 대한 에너지회피비용의 영향에 대해 분석한다. 그리고 경제성 평가 결과를 통하여 고효율 조명기기 정책의 방향을 제시한다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.453-459
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• 2021

The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.377-401
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• 2016

This study analyzes how much cost the power generation and energy sector in South Korea have to bear due to the introduction of emissions trading scheme during 2016 - 2017. To this end, the data on the seventh basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand is applied to the electricity market simulation model called M-Core, and then the model forecasts carbon dioxide emissions to compare with the free emission allowances in the first national emissions permit allocation plan. The main results are as follows. Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to be less in 2016 but more than the free emission allowances in 2017. When the price of the allowances is changed from \10,000/ton to \20,000/ton, the cost of purchasing the allowances is ranged from \70 billion to \140 billion. Under the assumption that CO2 cost is incorporated into the variable cost, a reversal of merit order between coal and LNG generation takes place when the price of the allowances exceeds \80,000/ton.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.393-417
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• 2022

Using hourly SMP data from 2016 to 2020, this paper measures the weekly realized volatility and investigates the main force of its determinants. To this end, we extend the Bayesian variable selection by incorporating the regime-switching model which identifies important variables among a large number of predictors by regimes. We find that the increase in coal and nuclear generation, as well as solar power, reinforce the SMP volatility in both high volatility and low volatility regime. In contrast the increase in gas generation and gas price decrease SMP volatility when SMP volatility is high. These results suggest that the expansion of renewable energy according to 2050 Carbon Neutrality or energy transition policies increases SMP volatility but the increase in the gas generation or reduction of coal generation might offset its impact.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.41 no.6
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• pp.594-605
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• 2013

This study was performed to analyze GHG (Greenhouse gas) reduction effectiveness and economic feasibility in the wood pellet fuel switching project using JCDM (Japan Clean Development Mechanism) and KVER (Korea Voluntary Emission Reduction)data. The major data for the analyses consist of investment costs, annual GHG reductions, fuel prices and GHG credit prices. The wood pellet fuel switching projects are the $CO_2$-zero projects. Therefore, these projects are essential to accomplish the GHG mitigation target, especially in Korea. In order to raise the economic feasibility of the wood pellet fuel switching project, the results of this study suggest that the Korean government should reduce the price of wood pellet through the supply on a large scale and raise the KCER price of wood pellet fuel switching project.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.573-605
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• 2015

This study proposed scenarios of tax reform regarding taxation on bituminous coal for power generation since July 2015 and July 2014, estimated its impact on SMP, settlement price, tax revenue from year 2015 to year 2029. These scenarios are compared with those of the standard scenario. To estimate them, the power system simulation was performed based on the government plan, such as demand supply program and the customized model to fit Korea's power system and operation. Imposing a tax on bituminous coal for power generation while maintaining tax neutrality reducing tax rate on LNG, the short-term SMP is lowered than the one of the standard scenario. Because the cost of nuclear power generation is still smaller than costs of other power generation, and the nuclear power generation rarely determines SMPs, the taxation impact on SMP is almost nonexistent. Thus it is difficult to slow down the electrification of energy consumption due to taxation of power plant bituminous coal in the short term, if SMP and settlement price is closely related. However, in the mid or long term, if the capacity of coal power plant is to be big enough, the taxation of power plant bituminous coal will increase SMP. Therefore, if the tax reform is made to impose on power plant bituminous coal in the short term, and if the tax rate on LNG is to be revised after implementing big enough new power plants using bituminous coal, the energy demand would be reduced by increasing electric charges through energy tax reform. Both imposing a tax on power plant bituminous coal and reducing tax rate on LNG increase settlement price, higher than the one of the standard scenario. In the mid or long term, the utilization of LNG complex power plants would be lower due to an expansion of generating plants, and thus, the tax rate on LNG would not affect on settlement price. Unlike to the impact on SMP, the taxation on nuclear power plants has increased settlement price due to the impact of settlement adjustment factor. The net impact of energy taxation will depend upon the level of offset between settlement price decrease by the expansion of energy supply and settlement price increase by imposing a tax on energy. Among taxable items, the tax on nuclear power plants will increase the most of additional tax revenue. Considering tax revenues in accordance with energy tax scenarios, the higher the tax rate on bituminous coal and nuclear power, the bigger the tax revenues.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.58-67
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• 2014

The proportion of investment in national R&D projects in construction and transportation has been increasing continuously; in terms of the size of R&D projects, there are many medium- to large-sized projects of over KRW 10 billion. However, in spite of such continuous increase in R&D investments, there are many technologies developed but not commercialized, i.e., the quiescence of technology. Accordingly, it is necessary to link the R&D results to commercialization by expanding the scope of R&D projects. In this context, this study presented objective reference prices to be used in contracting/transacting technology and implementing commercialization strategy by conducting technology valuations against on-going research projects with earnings approach, and by estimating value of patented technology. Sum of free cash flow (business value) that can be generated during the life of the technology was estimated as KRW 512 million by reflecting a discount rate of 16.34% to convert it into the present value. In addition, the technology value was computed as KRW 227million by applying a technology factor of 44.39% to the above value. Based on the technology value estimated in this way, it is necessary to establish industrialization and commercialization strategy of the technology.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.561_562
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• 2009

발전부문 배출권 모의거래는 배출권 거래제 도입시 발전부부문에 미치는 영향 분석을 통해 발전부문의 대응전략을 수립하기 위한 목적으로 2008년에 전력거래소가 주관하여 발전5사(남동, 중부, 서부, 동서, 남부)가 주요 참여사로 하여 국내최초로 국내실정에 맞는 배출권 모의거래를 시행하였다. 모의거래에서는 2가지의 시나리오를 설정하였다. 시나리오 I은 최소발전량 발전, 시나리오 II는 총발전운영계획량과 발전실적량을 일치토록하는 전제조건을 설정하였다. 그 결과 시나리오 I에서 모든 참여사는 최소 조건을 충족하도록 발전하는 전략적 행위로 인하여 전력공급지장이 발생하였고, 시나리오 II는 온실가스 배출량이 적은 LNG발전소의 발전량은 증가시키고, 온실가스량이 많은 석탄화력은 증가 운전토록하는 전략적 행위를 취함으로써 발전원가의 상승으로 인하여 전력가격이 상승하는 결과를 초래하였다. 따라서 향후 우리나라에 배출권 거래제 도입될 경우에 대비하여 전력시장과 연계한 배출권 거래제의 다양한 시뮬레이션이 필요하다.