• Title/Summary/Keyword: Kriging method

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Parameter Estimation of VfloTM Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model by Areal Rainfall Calculation Methods - For Dongchon Watershed of Geumho River - (유역 공간 강우 산정방법에 따른 VfloTM 분포형 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수 평가 - 금호강 동촌 유역을 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Si Soo;Jung, Chung Gil;Park, Jong Yoon;Jung, Sung Won;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2013
  • This study is to evaluate the parameter behavior of VfloTM distributed rainfall-runoff model by applying 3 kinds of rainfall interpolation methods viz. Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Kriging (KRI), and Thiessen network (THI). For the 1,544 $km^2$ Dongcheon watershed of Nakdong river, the model was calibrated using 4 storm events in 2007 and 2009, and validated using 2 storm events in 2010. The model was calibrated with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.97 for IDW, 0.94 for KRI, and 0.95 for THI respectively. For the sensitive parameters, the saturated hydraulic conductivity ($K_{sat}$) for IDW, KRI, and THI were 0.33, 0.31, and 0.43 cm/hr, and the soil suction head at the wetting front (${\Psi}_f$) were 4.10, 3.96, and 5.19 cm $H_2O$ respectively. These parameters affected the infiltration process by the spatial distribution of antecedent moisture condition before a storm.

Candidate Points and Representative Cross-Validation Approach for Sequential Sampling (후보점과 대표점 교차검증에 의한 순차적 실험계획)

  • Kim, Seung-Won;Jung, Jae-Jun;Lee, Tae-Hee
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.31 no.1 s.256
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    • pp.55-61
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    • 2007
  • Recently simulation model becomes an essential tool for analysis and design of a system but it is often expensive and time consuming as it becomes complicate to achieve reliable results. Therefore, high-fidelity simulation model needs to be replaced by an approximate model, the so-called metamodel. Metamodeling techniques include 3 components of sampling, metamodel and validation. Cross-validation approach has been proposed to provide sequnatially new sample point based on cross-validation error but it is very expensive because cross-validation must be evaluated at each stage. To enhance the cross-validation of metamodel, sequential sampling method using candidate points and representative cross-validation is proposed in this paper. The candidate and representative cross-validation approach of sequential sampling is illustrated for two-dimensional domain. To verify the performance of the suggested sampling technique, we compare the accuracy of the metamodels for various mathematical functions with that obtained by conventional sequential sampling strategies such as maximum distance, mean squared error, and maximum entropy sequential samplings. Through this research we team that the proposed approach is computationally inexpensive and provides good prediction performance.

An Approximation Method in Collaborative Optimization for Engine Selection coupled with Propulsion Performance Prediction

  • Jang, Beom-Seon;Yang, Young-Soon;Suh, Jung-Chun
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.41-60
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    • 2004
  • Ship design process requires lots of complicated analyses for determining a large number of design variables. Due to its complexity, the process is divided into several tractable designs or analysis problems. The interdependent relationship requires repetitive works. This paper employs collaborative optimization (CO), one of the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) techniques, for treating such complex relationship. CO guarantees disciplinary autonomy while maintaining interdisciplinary compatibility due to its bi-level optimization structure. However, the considerably increased computational time and the slow convergence have been reported as its drawbacks. This paper proposes the use of an approximation model in place of the disciplinary optimization in the system-level optimization. Neural network classification is employed as a classifier to determine whether a design point is feasible or not. Kriging is also combined with the classification to make up for the weakness that the classification cannot estimate the degree of infeasibility. For the purpose of enhancing the accuracy of a predicted optimum and reducing the required number of disciplinary optimizations, an approximation management framework is also employed in the system-level optimization.

A study on the Effective Utilization of Temperature Logging Data for Calculating Geothermal Gradient (지온경사 산출을 위한 효율적인 온도검층자료 이용방법 연구)

  • 김형찬
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.503-517
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to verfify a more effecive techique for calculating geothermal gradient. this study examines 370 data of temperature-logging having been collected since 1985. The daya are divided into three different grades grades according to the type of temperature-depth plots: 204 data show typical linear gradient (Grade A); 126 data do not explicitily show the gradient becase of various external effects such as water flow (Grade B); and the rest 40 data do not show the gradient at all (Grade D). The new technique for calculating geothermal gradient is to be required to use Greade-B data more effctiviely. This new technique includes (1) calculating the independer depth of atmospheric temperature in the earth; (2) drawing a distribution map of subsurface tempurature by using the distribution map of subsurface temperature by using Grade-A data at the independent depth; and (3) recalculating geothermal gradient of Grade-B data by using the distrbution map of subsurface temperature, borehole depth, and bottom temperature of Grade-B data by using the distribution map of subsurface temperature, borehole depth, and bottom temperature of Grade-B data. As a result, 330 data-both Grade-A and Grade-B data--can be used to draw a distribution map of hot spradient. The map clearly distinguishes anomaly areas, and helps interpret their relations to the distribution of hot springs, geology, geological structures, and geophysical anomaly areas. These new results reveal that the average of geothermal in south Korea is 25.6$^{\circ}C$/km, when calculated to the Kriging method.

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Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Irrigation Requirement in the Nakdong River Basin (기후변화가 낙동강 권역의 논 관개용수 수요량에 미치는 영향)

  • Chung, Sang-Ok
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2009
  • The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation requirements for Nakdong river basin in Korea have been analyzed. The HadCM3 model outputs for SRES A2 and B2 scenarios and International Water Management Institute $10'{\times}10'$ pixels observed data were used with kriging method. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the GIS. The results showed that the average growing season temperature was projected to increase by $2.2^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2), $0.0^{\circ}C$ (2050s B2), $3.7^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) and $2.9^{\circ}C$ (2080s B2) from the baseline (1961-1990) value of $21{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall was projected to increase by 15.2% (2050s A2), 24.2% (2050s B2), 41.4% (2080s A2) and 16.7% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of 900 mm. Average volumetric irrigation demands were projected to decrease by 3.7% (2050s A2), 7.0% (2050s B2), 10.2% (2080s A2) and 1.4% (2080s B2) from the baseline value of $1.25{\times}10^9\;m^3$. These results can be used for the agricultural water resources development planning in the Nakdong river basin for the future.

Application of Statistical Geo-Spatial Information Technology to Soil Stratification (통계적 지반 공간 정보 기법을 이용한 지층구조 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Saem;Kim, Hyun-Ki;Shin, Si-Yeol;Chung, Choong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.27 no.7
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2011
  • Subsurface Investigation results always reflect a level of soil uncertainty, which sometimes requires statistical corrections of the data for the appropriate engineering decision. This study suggests a closed-form framework to extract the outlying data points from the testing results using the statistical geo-spatial information analyses with outlier analysis and kring-based crossvalidation. The suggested analysis method is conducted to soil stratification using the borehole data in Yeouido.

Thermal conductivity prediction model for compacted bentonites considering temperature variations

  • Yoon, Seok;Kim, Min-Jun;Park, Seunghun;Kim, Geon-Young
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3359-3366
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    • 2021
  • An engineered barrier system (EBS) for the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) is composed of a disposal canister, buffer material, gap-filling material, and backfill material. As the buffer fills the empty space between the disposal canisters and the near-field rock mass, heat energy from the canisters is released to the surrounding buffer material. It is vital that this heat energy is rapidly dissipated to the near-field rock mass, and thus the thermal conductivity of the buffer is a key parameter to consider when evaluating the safety of the overall disposal system. Therefore, to take into consideration the sizeable amount of heat being released from such canisters, this study investigated the thermal conductivity of Korean compacted bentonites and its variation within a temperature range of 25 ℃ to 80-90 ℃. As a result, thermal conductivity increased by 5-20% as the temperature increased. Furthermore, temperature had a greater effect under higher degrees of saturation and a lower impact under higher dry densities. This study also conducted a regression analysis with 147 sets of data to estimate the thermal conductivity of the compacted bentonite considering the initial dry density, water content, and variations in temperature. Furthermore, the Kriging method was adopted to establish an uncertainty metamodel of thermal conductivity to verify the regression model. The R2 value of the regression model was 0.925, and the regression model and metamodel showed similar results.

Meta-model Effects on Approximate Multi-objective Design Optimization of Vehicle Suspension Components (차량 현가 부품의 근사 다목적 설계 최적화에 대한 메타모델 영향도)

  • Song, Chang Yong;Choi, Ha-Young;Byon, Sung-Kwang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.74-81
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    • 2019
  • Herein, we performed a comparative study on approximate multi-objective design optimization, to realize a structural design to improve the weight and vibration performances of the knuckle - a car suspension component - considering various load conditions and vibration characteristics. In the approximate multi-objective optimization process, a regression meta-model was generated using the response surfaces method (RSM), while Kriging and back-propagation neural network (BPN) methods were applied for interpolation meta-modeling. The Pareto solutions, multi-objective optimal solutions, were derived using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). In terms of the knuckle design considered in this study, the characteristics and influence of the meta-model on multi-objective optimization were reviewed through a comparison of the approximate optimization results with the meta-models and the actual optimization.

An ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage identification

  • Guangwei Lin;Yi Zhang;Enjian Cai;Taisen Zhao;Zhaoyan Li
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.61-81
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    • 2023
  • This study presents an ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage diagnosis. In the developed framework, the structure is initially decomposed into a set of substructures. The autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) model is established first for structural damage localization based structural motion equation. The wavelet packet decomposition is utilized to extract the damage-sensitive node energy in different frequency bands for constructing structural surrogate models. Four methods, including Kriging predictor (KRG), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), are selected as candidate structural surrogate models. These models are then resampled by bootstrapping and combined to obtain an ensemble model by probabilistic ensemble. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy principal is adopted to search for new design points for sample space updating, yielding a more robust ensemble model. Through the iterations, a framework of surrogate ensemble learning based model updating with high model construction efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The specificities of the method are discussed and investigated in a case study.

Geomorphological Changes of the Okjukdong Dunefield Over the Last Decade (지난 10년간 대청도 옥죽동 사구의 지형 변화)

  • Choi, Kwang Hee;Kong, Hak-Yang;Park, Sung Min
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.31-42
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    • 2019
  • The geomorphological changes of an unvegetated part of the Okjukdong coastal dune were analyzed between 2008 and 2018. Its natural landscape has been destroyed after artificial forestation, but there is no quantitative evidence on these changes. In this study, we measured the unvegetated area using a total station and a network RTK-GPS in 2008, 2014, and 2018. Using Krging method for the three point data sets, we constructed digital elevation models (DEMs) and analyzed topographic changes between the three years. The results showed that the sand of the study area decreased in volume from 2008 to 2014, because sand supply from the nearby beach was blocked by coastal forests. The sand volume temporarily increased from 2014 to 2018, because of the dune nourishment conducted in 2017. It seems that the upper part of the sand dune has shrunk, but the sand at the bottom has increased over the last decade.