• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.29-40
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• 2019

Categorical data with non-responses are frequently observed in election poll surveys, and can be represented by incomplete contingency tables. To estimate supporting rates of candidates, the identification of the missing mechanism should be pre-determined because the estimates of non-responses can be changed depending on the assumed missing mechanism. However, it has been shown that it is not possible to identify the missing mechanism when using observed data. To overcome this problem, sensitivity analysis has been suggested. The previously proposed sensitivity analysis can be applicable only to two-way incomplete contingency tables with binary variables. The previous sensitivity analysis is inappropriate to use since more than two of the factors such as region, gender, and age are usually considered in election poll surveys. In this paper, sensitivity analysis suitable to an multi-dimensional incomplete contingency table is devised, and also applied to the 19th Korean presidential election poll survey data. As a result, the intervals of estimates from the sensitivity analysis include actual results as well as estimates from various missing mechanisms. In addition, the properties of the missing mechanism that produce estimates nearest to actual election results are investigated.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.62
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• pp.159-178
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• 2013

The current study examined the effects of the voters' perception of television news coverage of election poll results on their political participation intention. 700 voters participated in a telephone interview three weeks before the 2012 Korean presidential election. A structural equation modeling with the nationally representative sample was performed. The findings indicate the respondents were more likely to evaluate television news coverage of election poll results negatively when the news coverage presented that the candidate they supported was behind in the race, and the negative evaluation was linked to a greater third-person perception. The third-person perception, in turn, had an indirect effect on political participation intention through negative emotional responses. The results imply that voters' political position influences their perception of the television news coverage of election poll results, and this perception can have indirect effects on political participation.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.39-66
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• 2018

This paper analyzes the structures and issues of 2018 Korean local elections based on the author's observations on the electoral processes. Even if this paper does not follow a traditional statistical method, it provides the interpretative meanings of 2018 local elections by utilizing an expert's observations of campaign processes. This result of 2018 election can be summarized into two analytical frames. In terms of electoral competition structure, three key factors, such as presidential approval rating, party competition structure, ideological spectrum, tend to affect the winning of governing party. In the light of election issue, the inter-Korean summit, the Washington-Pyeongyang summit, Incheon deprecating remark were positive to the vote gains of governing party, but the negative campaign, the drucking scandal and the swing voters were found not to be significant. The local election in Korea tends to show dual meanings, a proxy war of national-level politics and a composition process of local government. This paper found that the 2018 election has dual meanings at the same time, in a sense that it is the punishment of the ex-governing party's wrongdoing and the power change of local government.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.22
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• pp.107-130
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• 2003

This study evaluated the debate formats adopted in the 2002 Televised Presidential Debates. Presidential Debate Committee have sponsored Televised Presidential Debates during the official campaign period. However, it is not easy task for the Committee to coordinate each party's different interests, such as voters, candidates, and broadcasters. Presidential candidates tries to use the debates as one of their campaign strategies. Broadcasters argued limitations in programming and production process. Regardless of the obstacles, voters expect that the committee makes ideal debate formats. The committee adopted two new forms in the 2002 Debates. The committee allowed direct exchange between candidates as well as advance question preparation by candidate. The committee intends that candidates focus on discussing policy issues. Some studies found that the debate format to allow direct exchange between candidates makes candidates focus on image issues rather than policy issues. The findings of this study are similar to the previous studies'. The new debate formats adopted in 2002 televised presidential debates did not guarantee policy issue oriented discussion. The committee or scholars should evaluate the debate formats used in the presidential debates in order to establish ideal debate formats that gives important information for votes to determine their choice. It is necessary to systematically evaluate the debate formats of former presidential campaign for developing right debate formats.

• Journal of dental hygiene science
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.69-74
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to investigate the actual attitude of the major newspapers and broadcastings about public health policy during last $17^{th}$ presidential election and $18^{th}$ election for a member of the National Assembly and apply it to the study of procedure of making decision of policy as a fundamental data. Two researchers surveyed and analyzed all articles from three broadcasting stations, KBS, MBC, and SBS, and from four newspaper companies, Donga, Jungang, Chosun, and Hangyoreh. Among the major articles, the articles related to policies are ranked in last (10.8%). And among the reported 284 articles related to the policies, the social section (75 articles, 26.4%) and the economic section (73 articles, 25.7%) took part of over 50% of all. However, the articles related to public health policy took part of only 9.9% (28 articles). Among the articles of public health policy, the articles related to the cost of the medical service were ranked in the first (39.3%). Therefore, to solve the problems of the major public health policy, it needs effort to develop the public health policy and use the media to realize the developed policies.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.45
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• pp.220-254
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• 2009

Presidential TV debates serve as an important instrument for the general viewers to evaluate the candidates’ character, to examine their policy, and finally to make an important political decisions to cast ballots. Every words candidates utter in the course of entire election campaign exert influence of a certain significance by delivering their ideas and by creating clashes with their respective opponents. This study focuses on the conceptual venue, coined as ‘stasis’ by ancient rhetoricians, in which the clashes take place, and examines the words selection made by each candidates, the manners in which they form stasis, call for evidence, educate the public, and finally create a legitimate form of political argumentation. The study applied computer based content analysis using KrKwic and UCINET software to analyze semantic networks among the candidates. The results showed three major candidates, namely Lee Myung Bak, Jung Dong Young, and Lee Hoi Chang, displayed separate patterns in their use of language, by selecting the words that are often neglected by their opponents. Apparently, the absence of stasis and the lack of speaking mutual language significantly undermined the effects of debates. Central questions regarding issues of North Korea failed to meet basic requirements, and the respondents failed to engage in effective argumentation process.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.141-156
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• 2013

Social media is a representative form of the Web 2.0 that shapes the change of a user's information behavior by allowing users to produce their own contents without any expert skills. In particular, as a new communication medium, it has a profound impact on the social change by enabling users to communicate with the masses and acquaintances their opinions and thoughts. Social media data plays a significant role in an emerging Big Data arena. A variety of research areas such as social network analysis, opinion mining, and so on, therefore, have paid attention to discover meaningful information from vast amounts of data buried in social media. Social media has recently become main foci to the field of Information Retrieval and Text Mining because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real-time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading. But most of the previous studies have adopted broad-brush and limited approaches. These approaches have made it difficult to find and analyze new information. To overcome these limitations, we developed a real-time Twitter trend mining system to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers the functions of term co-occurrence retrieval, visualization of Twitter users by query, similarity calculation between two users, topic modeling to keep track of changes of topical trend, and mention-based user network analysis. In addition, we conducted a case study on the 2012 Korean presidential election. We collected 1,737,969 tweets which contain candidates' name and election on Twitter in Korea (http://www.twitter.com/) for one month in 2012 (October 1 to October 31). The case study shows that the system provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively. The system also retrieves the list of terms co-occurred by given query terms. We compare the results of term co-occurrence retrieval by giving influential candidates' name, 'Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn' as query terms. General terms which are related to presidential election such as 'Presidential Election', 'Proclamation in Support', Public opinion poll' appear frequently. Also the results show specific terms that differentiate each candidate's feature such as 'Park Jung Hee' and 'Yuk Young Su' from the query 'Guen Hae Park', 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'Time of voting extension' from the query 'Jae In Moon' and 'a single candidacy agreement' and 'down contract' from the query 'Chul Su Ahn'. Our system not only extracts 10 topics along with related terms but also shows topics' dynamic changes over time by employing the multinomial Latent Dirichlet Allocation technique. Each topic can show one of two types of patterns-Rising tendency and Falling tendencydepending on the change of the probability distribution. To determine the relationship between topic trends in Twitter and social issues in the real world, we compare topic trends with related news articles. We are able to identify that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. The user network in Twitter is different from those of other social media because of distinctive characteristics of making relationships in Twitter. Twitter users can make their relationships by exchanging mentions. We visualize and analyze mention based networks of 136,754 users. We put three candidates' name as query terms-Geun Hae Park', 'Jae In Moon', and 'Chul Su Ahn'. The results show that Twitter users mention all candidates' name regardless of their political tendencies. This case study discloses that Twitter could be an effective tool to detect and predict dynamic changes of social issues, and mention-based user networks could show different aspects of user behavior as a unique network that is uniquely found in Twitter.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.516-538
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• 2015

This study applies policy network theory to examine the main policy actors and their relations in the green growth policy making process. Also the development of and changes in South Korean government's green growth strategy are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the president and the presidential council were the key players to introduce and to push green growth policy in a short time. Policy influence and key roles were concentrated on them. The development of green growth policy were initiated from the president's change in perceived problems and preferences. He set green growth policy on the government's top priority. These changes lead to another changes in strategies, rules, norms and resources within the network. As a result, the president-led green growth policy established new laws, environmental regulations and governmental structures to facilitate the policy implementation. Green growth policy, however, was almost stopped after new presidential election in 2013. Because new government has a different national agenda, the previous governmental agenda lost its status as national priority. In addition, this study shows that government-led green growth in Korea has policy consistency problem after administration was changed by presidential election. Former president-led green growth policy making under the situation of the lack of policy participation from the private sector led to discontinuities in policy after a presidential term was over.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.53-64
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• 2014

One of the major problems to forecast election, especially based on survey, is nonresponse. We may have different forecasting results depend on method of imputation. Handling nonresponse is more important in a survey about sensitive subject, such as presidential election. In this research, we consider a model based method of nonresponse imputation. A model based imputation method should be constructed based on assumption of nonresponse mechanism and may produce different results according to the nonresponse mechanism. An assumption of the nonresponse mechanism is very important precondition to forecast the accurate results. However, there is no exact way to verify assumption of the nonresponse mechanism. In this paper, we compared the accuracy of prediction and assumption of nonresponse mechanism based on the result of presidential election exit poll. We consider maximum likelihood estimation method based on EM algorithm to handle assumption of the model of nonresponse. We also consider modified within precinct error which Bautista (2007) proposed to compare the predict result.