• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.31-39
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• 2017

본 연구는 무기체계의 단위비용을 고려한 K2(KC와 KAMD) 체계의 효과분석을 수행하였다. 단일 KC와 다중(고층 및 저층) KAMD를 가정하고, 각 체계에 임의의 무기체계를 설정하여 각각의 조합에 따라 총 12개의 시나리오를 작성하였다. 효과도는 전체 탄도미사일 위협 수량 대비 감소된 탄도미사일 위협의 비율로 정의하였으며, 비용은 발사된 무장의 수량과 단위비용으로 계산하였다. K2 체계의 효과도와 총비용은 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 1,000번 반복하여 추정하였다. 각각의 시나리오를 대안으로 하여 비용대 효과분석을 실시하였고, 효과고정법을 사용하여 최적 대안을 선정하였다. 연구 결과 KC 능력이 K2 체계의 방어 효과와 총비용을 결정하는 가장 중요한 요소였으며, 적정 수준의 저층방어체계를 갖춰야 요구되는 방어 효과를 달성할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 향후 연구에서 실질적인 무기체계 제원과 수명주기비용을 고려한 비용대 효과분석이 이루진다면 더욱 현실적인 분석이 가능할 것이다.

• 국방과기술
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• 2호통권252호
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• pp.18-29
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• 2000

한국의 TMD 참여문제는 실효성 문제, 경제적인 문제, 기술적인 문제 등으로 볼 때 유보하는 것이 바람직하다고 생각된다. 따라서 북한의 탄도 미사일에 대한 방어체계 구축은 동맹국의 TMD 체계와 상호 운용성을 보장할 수 있으며, 주변국으로부터 군비 확충에 대한 의심을 불식시킴과 동시에 한국적 여건에 가장 적합한 미사일방어체계(KAMD:Korea Air and Missile Defense)에 대한 개념연구의 선행이 필요하다.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.145-156
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• 2023

Trajectory of ballistic missile is defined by inherent flight dynamics, which decided range and maneuvering characteristics. It is crucial to predict range and maneuvering characteristics of ballistic missile in KAMD (Korea Air and Missile Defense) to minimize damage due to ballistic missile attacks, Nowadays, needs for applying AI(Artificial Intelligence) technologies are increasing due to rapid developments of DNN(Deep Neural Networks) technologies. To apply these DNN technologies amount of data are required for superviesed learning, but trajectory data of ballistic missiles is limited because of security issues. Trajectory data could be considered as multivariate time series including many variables. And augmentation in time series data is a developing area of research. In this paper, we tried to augment trajectory data of ballistic missiles using recently developed methods. We used TimeVAE(Time Variational AutoEncoder) method and TimeGAN(Time Generative Adversarial Networks) to synthesize missile trajectory data. We also compare the results of two methods and analyse for future works.

• Strategy21
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• 통권40호
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• pp.190-215
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• 2016

As North Korea's asymmetric threats are growing, there have been numerous discussions to find out effective counter-measures and many official plans and procurements efforts have been established. However, discussions on ROK Navy's roles in countering North Korea's asymmetric threats have been taken place very limitedly. Decision makers and military planners put enormous efforts in getting counter-measures, however, most of the options on the table are systems of Army and Air Force. This is true if one looks at components of Kill-Chain, KAMD, and KMPR. With worsening security environment of the Korean peninsula, it has been said by many commentators that ROK Navy needs to consider expanding its roles in countering against North Korea's asymmetric military threats. They asked ROK Navy to go beyond the mind-set that has confined Navy's roles in deterring North Korean naval threats. That is, ROK Navy should fight 'from the sea' as well as fight 'on the sea.' If ROK Navy begins to think about fight 'from the sea,' there would be many possibilities for the Navy to be a part of countering North Korea's asymmetric military threats. In order to pursue proactive roles in countering North Korea's asymmetric threat, ROK Navy needs to consider various options. Massive missile forces, nuclear-propelled submarines, naval special forces may be some of them. With those measures, ROK Navy would launch massive and decisive attacks from the sea without risking survivability of our forces. Considering North Korean Navy's weakness, it is very probable that sea would be safer place than ground or sky. Expanding ROK Navy's roles and being a proactive deterrent forces against North Korean asymmetric threats would provide very reliable counter-measures to South Korean military. Thus, military planners should think how to take the best advantage of expanded ROK Navy's roles and capabilities against North Korean asymmetric threats.