• Title/Summary/Keyword: Kalman-Filtering

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Application of 4th Industrial Revolution Technology to Implement Smart-Eco River (스마트 에코 리버 구현을 위한 4차산업혁명 기술의 적용)

  • Kim, Sunghoon;Jang, Suhyung;Lee, Eulrae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.11-11
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    • 2020
  • 18년 물관리일원화 이후 인프라와 사람 중심으로부터 자연과 인간의 조화를 위한 환경·생태계의 자연성 회복으로의 물관리 패러다임 전환이 빠르게 이루어지고 있으며, 대규모 국책사업이후의 하천 관리에 있어서도 기존의 이수, 치수, 환경이라는 단순한 기능적 구분을 벗어나 보다 근본적이고 장기적인 대국민 서비스로의 전환을 도모하고 있다. 또한, ICBAM 등으로 정의되는 4차산업혁명 기반 기술의 접목이 거의 대부분의 분야에서 이루어지고 있는 것을 실질적으로 체감하는 시기가 도래하였다. 그러나, 하천 및 수자원 관리분야에서의 기술은 근대 엔지니어링의 기초가 되는 수로 건설 등으로부터 시발되어 사실상 가장 앞선 과학적 진보의 토대를 갖추었으나 최근의 기술적 트렌드를 잘 추종하지 못하는 것처럼 비추어 지는 것이 사실이다. 주된 이유로서 기후변화라는 광범위하고 장기적인 입력요소를 가진 하천관리 시스템의 특성상 불확실성의 추정 및 즉각적인 응답이 어려운 부분이 분명히 존재하지만, 실질적으로 여전히 해소되지 않는 부분은 하천의 기초자료 수집에 대한 효율성과 신뢰도가 낮은 것이라고 하겠다. 또한, 유역으로부터 댐-다기능보-하천으로 이어지는 의사결정을 위한 다양한 형태의 자료로부터 적절한 정보를 수집하는 체계(거버넌스의 문제이자 기술적/재정적 한계)가 확립되지 않은 점도 고려해야 할 것이다. 본 연구에서는 인공지능을 활용한 하천의 유량 예측 등을 위해 필요한 수자원 기초데이터의 근원적인 수집 및 관리상의 문제점에 대해서 검토하고자 하였으며, ARIMA, Kalman Filtering, MA 및 복합기법을 통한 자료처리 기법을 적용하여 상황에 맞게 오차 및 불확실성의 저감을 위한 방안을 찾고자 하였다. 또한, 이용자 중심의 하천 관리에 근접한다고 볼 수 있는 스마트워터시티 개념에서의 바람직한 하천관리 기법에 대해서 논의하고, 관련하여 근자에 개발한 하천의 물리적 해석 도구들에 대해서 적용 사례를 검토한다. 마지막으로, 지식기반의 하천관리 의사결정 플랫폼 개발을 위해서 기존의 기계학습을 통한 자동화된 의사결정에 부가하여 전문가와 시스템이 상호작용을 통해서 AI를 학습시켜 결정한 사항을 전문가의 의사결정에 참고하는 MCRDR기법의 적용의 적용 가능성과 도입 방향에 대해서 논의하였다.

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NEAR REAL-TIME IONOSPHERIC MODELING USING A RBGIONAL GPS NETWORK (지역적 GPS 관측망을 이용한 준실시간 전리층 모델링)

  • Choi, Byung-Kyu;Park, Jong-Uk;Chung, Jeong-Kyun;Park, Phil-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2005
  • Ionosphere is deeply coupled to the space environment and introduces the perturbations to radio signal because of its electromagnetic characteristics. Therefore, the status of ionosphere can be estimated by analyzing the GPS signal errors which are penetrating the ionosphere and it can be the key to understand the global circulation and change in the upper atmosphere, and the characteristics of space weather. We used 9 GPS Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS), which have been operated by Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) , to determine the high precision of Total Electron Content (TEC) and the pseudorange data which is phase-leveled by a linear combination with carrier phase to reduce the inherent noise. We developed the method to model a regional ionosphere with grid form and its results over South Korea with $0.25^{\circ}\;by\;0.25^{\circ}$ spatial resolution. To improve the precision of ionosphere's TEC value, we applied IDW (Inverse Distance Weight) and Kalman Filtering method. The regional ionospheric model developed by this research was compared with GIMs (Global Ionosphere Maps) preduced by Ionosphere Working Group for 8 days and the results show $3\~4$ TECU difference in RMS values.

Development of a Freeway Travel Time Estimating and Forecasting Model using Traffic Volume (차량검지기 교통량 데이터를 이용한 고속도로 통행시간 추정 및 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 오세창;김명하;백용현
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2003
  • This study aims to develop travel time estimation and prediction models on the freeway using measurements from vehicle detectors. In this study, we established a travel time estimation model using traffic volume which is a principle factor of traffic flow changes by reviewing existing travel time estimation techniques. As a result of goodness of fit test. in the normal traffic condition over 70km/h, RMSEP(Root Mean Square Error Proportion) from travel speed is lower than the proposed model, but the proposed model produce more reliable travel times than the other one in the congestion. Therefore in cases of congestion the model uses the method of calculating the delay time from excess link volumes from the in- and outflow and the vehicle speeds from detectors in the traffic situation at a speed of over 70km/h. We also conducted short term prediction of Kalman Filtering to forecast traffic condition and more accurate travel times using statistical model The results of evaluation showed that the lag time occurred between predicted travel time and estimated travel time but the RMSEP values of predicted travel time to observations are as 1ow as that of estimation.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources: Waimea Plains, New Zealand Case Example

  • Zemansky, Gil;Hong, Yoon-Seeok Timothy;Rose, Jennifer;Song, Sung-Ho;Thomas, Joseph
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2011
  • Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

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A Study on Link Travel Time Prediction by Short Term Simulation Based on CA (CA모형을 이용한 단기 구간통행시간 예측에 관한 연구)

  • 이승재;장현호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2003
  • There are two goals in this paper. The one is development of existing CA(Cellular Automata) model to explain more realistic deceleration process to stop. The other is the application of the updated CA model to forecasting simulation to predict short term link travel time that takes a key rule in finding the shortest path of route guidance system of ITS. Car following theory of CA models don't makes not response to leading vehicle's velocity but gap or distance between leading vehicles and following vehicles. So a following vehicle running at free flow speed must meet steeply sudden deceleration to avoid back collision within unrealistic braking distance. To tackle above unrealistic deceleration rule, “Slow-to-stop” rule is integrated into NaSch model. For application to interrupted traffic flow, this paper applies “Slow-to-stop” rule to both normal traffic light and random traffic light. And vehicle packet method is used to simulate a large-scale network on the desktop. Generally, time series data analysis methods such as neural network, ARIMA, and Kalman filtering are used for short term link travel time prediction that is crucial to find an optimal dynamic shortest path. But those methods have time-lag problems and are hard to capture traffic flow mechanism such as spill over and spill back etc. To address above problems. the CA model built in this study is used for forecasting simulation to predict short term link travel time in Kangnam district network And it's turned out that short term prediction simulation method generates novel results, taking a crack of time lag problems and considering interrupted traffic flow mechanism.

A Study on the Wireless Ship Motion Measurement System Using AHRS (AHRS를 이용한 무선 선체 운동 측정 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Hae;Lee, Sang-Min;Kong, Gil-Young
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.575-580
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    • 2013
  • The IMU(Inertial Measurement Unit) which is the expensive equipment has been used as a special limited area, usually in measurement of posture of applying to the areas of ship, submarine, aircraft and military equipment application. However, in the current situation, MEMS AHRS technology can replace the high-priced IMU in MEMS AHRS selected application field. In this paper, wireless hull motion measurement system was suggested for measuring key elements of ship's movement such as rolling, pitching and yawing using gyro, acceleration and magnetic sensors of AHRS. In order to reduce the error such as instantaneous acceleration, effects and vibration of geomagnetic, we have adopted the sensors equipped with Kalman filtering. The Wireless hull motion measurement system using AHRS sensors was tested in actual ship and it could easily be applied in limited installation circumstances of the ship. In the future, this system can be useful in the navigation safety and marine accident analysis by using with ship equipment such as INS or VDR in the maritime.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.