• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.211-226
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• 2017

In this paper, machine learning models employed in various fields are discussed and applied to KOSPI200 stock index return forecasting. The results of hyperparameter analysis of the machine learning models are also reported and practical methods for each model are presented. As a result of the analysis, Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network showed a better performance than k-Nearest Neighbor and Random Forest.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.227-241
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• 2017

The study investigates the stock market using emotion index calculated from SMD based on investors' emotion. In the VAR anlaysis, we find that the correlation between the KOSPI200 return and emotion score sum is highest in 2- or 3- day lag. This study concludes that explanatory power of the SMD emotion index is limited in explaining the Korean stock market yet.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.1066-1070
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• 2002

We propose a neural network based up-trend detector. An auto-associative neural network was trained with 'up-trend' data obtained from the KOSPI 200 future price. It was then used to predict an up-trend Simple investment strategies based on the detector achieved a two year return of $19.8\%$ with no leverage.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.13-22
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• 2003

Simulations on the nonlinear partial differential equation derived from Black-Scholes equation with transaction costs are performed. These numerical experiments using finite element methods are applied to KOSPI200 in 2002 and the option prices obtained with transaction costs are closer to the real prices in market than the prices used in Korea Stock Exchange.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.203-226
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• 2000

본 연구는 주가지수 선물시장이 도입된 1996년 5월 3일부터 1998년 12월 5일까지 1분 간격 KOSPI 200 선물가격과 현물가격의 거래자료를 이용하여 각 선물가격과 기초자산가격간의 관계와 상호작용을 검토하는데 있다. 특히 본 연구는 차익거래자나 초단기 투기자(scalper)들이 거래체결을 위해 촌각을 다투는 선물시장의 거래행태에서 볼 때, 경제적 의미를 부여할 수 있는 1분 간격 수익률 자료를 이용함으로써 시장참여자의 실제 거래에서 표출되는 정형화된 현상을 정확히 파악한다는 점에서 중요하다. 본 연구의 주요 결과를 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주가지수 선물시장과 현물시장간에 체계적이고 긴 선도-지연 관계가 발견되었다. 주가지수 선물가격의 변화가 현물가격의 변화를 대략 26분 정도 선도하고 있으며, 대략 5분 정도 현물시장의 선도효과도 발견된다. 따라서 KOSPI 200 선물수익률과 현물수익률간의 선도-지연 관계는 한 시장에서 다른 시장으로의 일방적인 것이 아니라 시장간의 피드백(feedback)효과가 존재하며, 선물의 선도효과가 지배적인 것으로 보인다. 이러한 선도-지연 현상은 노이즈에 의한 비동시거래보다는 거래비용과 공매제약 차이 등 각 시장의 제도적 차이에 의해 발생하는 것으로 보여진다. 둘째, 약세시장 하에서 선물의 선도효과가 더욱 크게 나타났다. 이러한 현상은 약세시장 하에서 현물시장의 공매제약이 선물가격과 현물가격간의 괴리를 더욱 크게 하여 선물가격이 현물지수를 더욱 선도하게 하는 요인이 될 수도 있음을 나타내는 것이다. 셋째, 만기별 하위기간 중 97년 6월과 97년 12월을 제외한 기간은 선물과 현물가격간에 장기 안정적인 균형관계가 성립함을 발견하였다. 넷째, ARMA(p, q) 여과를 거친 선물과 현물수익률을 이용하여 97년 6월과 12월은 백터자기회귀(VAR)모형, 그 외의 기간은 오차수정(EC)모형으로 추정하였다. 표본전체기간동안 장기균형오차에 대한 조정은 선물과 현물시장에서 동시에 이루어지고 있으며, 시장간에 발생하는 불균형 상황은 아비트라지 거래로 조정되고 있음이 발견되었다. 각 만기별 모든 하위기간에 있어서는 시장간의 장기 불균형 상황이 현물시장을 통해서 조정되고 있으며, 시장이 성숙된 최근의 만기 98년 12월 하위기간에서는 선물의 15분 선도효과와 현물의 1분 선도효과가 발견되어 선물의 선도효과가 지배적임을 발견하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.91-105
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• 2005

Using Campa and Chang's Expectations Hypothesis model, We test the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in options on KOSPI 200 by using daily dosing prices from January 1999 to December 2003. In particular, it addresses whether long-dated volatilities are consistent with expected future short-dated volatilities, assuming rational expectation. Our results do not support the expectations hypothesis : long-term volatilities rise relative to short-term volatilities, but the increases are not matched as predicted by the expectations hypothesis. In addition, an increase in the current long-term volatilities relative to the current short-term volatilities is followed by at a random.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.73-82
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• 2017

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate a profit maximizing incentive of foreign traders in distributing the KOSPI 200 Futures. Such an incentive may induce unsophisticated retail traders to suffer loss from speculative trading. Since Korean government increased the entry barriers of the market to protect unsophisticated traders, the market size has been decreasing while the proportion of the contract held by foreign traders has been increasing. These on going changes make the market imperfectly competitive, where a profit maximization incentives of foreign traders are expected to grow. In this paper, we attempt to find any evidence of such behavior, thereby providing implications regarding market policy and market efficiency. Research design, data, and methodology - According to Kyle(1985), an informed trader exploits his/her monopoly power optimally in a dynamic context so that he/she makes positive profit, where he/she could conceal his/her trading utilizing noise trading as camouflage. We apply the KOSPI 200 Futures market to the Kyle's model: foreign traders who take into account the effect of his/her trading to maximize expected profits as an informed trader, retail investors as noise traders, and financial institutions as market makers. To find any evidence of monopolistic behavior, we test the variants of trading volume and price data of the KOSPI 200 Futures over the period of 2009 and 2017. Results - First, we find that the price of the KOSPI 200 Futures are more volatile than the price of underlying asset. Second, we find that monopolistic foreign trader's trading order flows are consistent with exploiting his/her monopoly power to maximize profit. Finally, we find that retail investors' trading order flows are inversely consistent with maximizing profit, that is, uninformed retail investors suffer loss continuously in speculative trading against informed traders. Conclusions - Our results show that the quantity of strategic order flows may have a large effect on the price, therefore, resulting the market inefficiency. The results also imply that, in implementing regulations, the depth of the market must be considered to maintain market liquidity, and suggesting interesting research topics regarding the market structure.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.730-736
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• 2011

In this paper, we designed the models for pattern classification which can reflect the latest trend in time series. It has been shown that fusion models based on statistical and AI methods are superior to traditional ones for the pattern classification model supporting decision making. Especially, the hit rates of pattern classification models combined with fuzzy theory are relatively increased. The statistical SVM models combined with fuzzy membership function, or the models combining neural network and FCM has shown good performance. BPN, PNN, FNN, FCM, SVM, FSVM, Decision Tree, Time Series Analysis, and Regression Analysis were used for pattern classification models in the experiments of this paper. The economical indices DB with time series properties of the financial market(Korea, KOSPI200 DB) and the electrocardiogram DB of arrhythmia patients in hospital emergencies(USA, MIT-BIH DB) were used for data base.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.247-262
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the Pandamic Declaration on 'untact firms' listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ market in order to verify Investor Mania Hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected financial data for 44 untact firms in KOSPI and KOSDAQ market. Then, we employed ESM(Event Study Methodology), EGARCH model and DID(Difference-In-Difference) for analysis. Findings - First, in contrast with the benchmarking index, KOSPI 200 which shows a negative (-) abnormal return trend, the untact firms have positive abnormal return trend consistently. Second, after the Pandemic Declaration, the variability of abnormal return for the untact firms is found to be significantly positive. Third, we find that the cumulative abnormal return and volatility of the untact firms significantly increase after the Pandemic Declaration. Research implications or Originality - Based on the Investor Mania Hypothesis, we confirm that the market potential of untact firms after the Pandemic Declaration is observed when compared with the KOSPI 200.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.196-204
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• 2002

This paper examines the price discovery role of the KOSPI 200 futures index for its cash index. It was used the intrady data for KOSPI 200 and futures index from July 1998 to June 2001. The existing Preceding study for KOSPI 200 futures index was used the data of early market installation, but this study is distinguished to use a recent data accompanied with the great volume of transaction and various investors. We established three hypothesis to examine whether there is the price discovery role in the KOPSI 200 futures index and the characteristics of that. First, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is induced by the infrequent trading of component stocks, observations are sorted by the size of the trading volume of cash index. In a low trading volume, the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a high volume. It is explained that the infrequent trading effect have an influence on the price discovery role. Second, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is different under bad news and good news, observations are sorted by the sign and size of cash index returns. In a bad news the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a good news. This is explained by the restriction of"short selling" of the cash index Third, we compared estimates of the lead and lag relationships on the expiration day with those on days prior to expiration using a minute-to-minute data. The futures-to-spot lead time on the expiration day was at least as long as other days Prior to expiration, suggesting that "expiration day effects" did not demonstrate a temporal character substantially different form earlier days. Thus, while arbitrage activity may be presumed to be the greatest at expiration, such arbitrage transactions were not sufficiently strong or Pervasive to alter the empirical price relationship for the entire day. for the entire day.