• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.69-86
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• 2007

The characteristics of the dual-Doppler wind retrieval method based on a three dimensional variational (3DVAR) conception were investigated from the following four points of view; the sensitivity of the number of iteration, the effect of the weak constraint term, the effect of the smoothness term, and the sensitivity of the error mixing ratio of the radial velocities. In the experiment, the radial velocities relative to the Gosan and Jindo radar sites of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were calculated from the forecasting of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast; Skamarock, 2004) model at 1330 UTC 30 June 2006, which is the one and half hour forecast from the initial time, 1200 UTC on that day. The results showed that the retrieval performance of the horizontal wind field was robust, but that of the vertical wind was sensitive to the external conditions, such as iteration number and the on/off of the weak constraint term. The sensitivity of error mixing ratio was so large that even the horizontal wind retrieval efficiency was reduced a lot. But the sensitivity of the smooth term was not so large. When we applied this method to the real mesoscale convective system (MCS) between the Gosan and Jindo radar pair at 1430 UTC 30 June 2006, the wind structure of the convective cells in the MCS was consistently retrieved relative to the reflectivity factor structure. By comparing the vertical wind structure of this case with that of 10 minutes after, 1440 UTC 30 June 2006, we got the physical consistency of our method.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.63-71
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• 2013

KMA is operationally monitoring El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events, which have tremendous impacts on global climate. Many scientific studies have used to define onset of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events based on the moving average and persistency of SST indices, and KMA has adopted such definition. Though the definition has been widely accepted, in the operational aspect there is a critical problem to use moving average and condition for the persistence. Because the future values for the SST indices cannot be used in the operational monitoring, the onset timing in El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a can be significantly delayed. We suggest here an appropriate definition of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a events in the operational aspect. Instead of using the moving average and the condition for the persistence, the onset is defined based on NINO3.4 SST during last 3 months. In order to compare the new definition with the current KMA definition, we applied them to recent 60-years SST data. It is clear that the new definition can declare the onset timing of El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a several months earlier than that of the KMA definition. It suggest that the new definition is more appropriate to the operational monitoring on El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.221-231
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• 2012

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are the latest emission scenarios recommended to use for the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study investigates the projection of extreme precipitation in South Korea during the forthcoming 21st Century using the generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis based on two different RCP conditions i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Maximum daily precipitation required for GEV analysis for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the corresponding global climate projections, which are produced within the CMIP5 framework. We found overall increase in frequency of extreme precipitation over South Korea in association with climate change. Particularly, daily extreme precipitation that has been occurred every 20 years in current climate (1980~2005) is likely to happen about every 4.3 and 3.4 years by the end of 21st Century (2070~2099) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions, respectively.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.39-48
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• 2014

This study provides a comparative analysis of cloud top heights observed by a Ka-band cloud radar and the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) at Boseong National Center for Intensive Observation of severe weather (NCIO) from May 25, 2013 (1600 UTC) to May 27. The rainfall duration is defined as the period of rainfall from start to finish, and the no rainfall duration is defined as the period other than the rainfall duration. As a result of the comparative analysis, the cloud top heights observed by the cloud radar have been estimated to be lower than that observed by the COMS for the rainfall duration due to the signal attenuation caused by raindrops. The stronger rainfall intensity gets, the more the difference grows. On the other hand, the cloud top heights observed by the cloud radar have been relatively similar to that observed by the COMS for the no rainfall duration. In this case, the cloud radar can effectively detect cloud top heights within the range of its observation. The COMS indicates the cloud top heights lower than the actual ones due to the upper thin clouds under the influence of ground surface temperature. As a result, the cloud radar can be useful in detecting cloud top heights when there are no precipitation events. The COMS data can be used to correct the cloud top heights when the radar gets beyond the valid range of observation or there are precipitation events.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.55-70
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• 2008

The global time slice approach is a transient experiment using high resolution atmosphere-only model with boundary condition from the low resolution globally coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The present study employs this "time slice concept" using ECHAM4 atmosphere-only model at a horizontal resolution of T106 with the lower boundary forcing obtained from a lower-resolution (T42) greenhouse gas + aerosol forcing experiment performed using the ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G) coupled model. In order to assess the impact of horizontal resolution on simulated East Asian summer monsoon climate, the differences in climate response between the time slice experiments of the present and that of IPCC SRES AR4 participating 21 models including coarser (T30) coupled model are compared. The higher resolution model from time slice experiment in the present climate show successful performance in simulating the northward migration and the location of the maximum rainfall during the rainy season over East Asia, although its rainfall amount was somewhat weak compared to the observation. Based on the present climate simulation, the possible change of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the future climate by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, tends to be increased especially over the eastern part of Japan during July and September. The increase of the precipitation over this region seems to be related with the weakening of northwestern part of North Pacific High and the formation of anticyclonic flow over the south of Yangtze River in the future climate.

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.213-226
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• 2009

In order to investigate the characteristics of Changma over the Korean peninsula, KEOP-2007 IOP (Intensive Observing Period) was conducted from 15 June 2007 to 15 July 2007. KEOP-2007 IOP is high spatial and temporal radiosonde observations (RAOB) which consisted of three special stations (Munsan, Haenam, and Ieodo) from National Institute of Meteorological Research, five operational stations (Sokcho, Baengnyeongdo, Pohang, Heuksando, and Gosan) from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and two operational stations (Osan and Gwangju) from Korean Air Force (KAF) using four different types of radiosonde sensors. The error statistics of the sensor of radiosonde were investigated using quality control check. The minimum and maximum error frequency appears at the sensor of RS92-SGP and RS1524L respectively. The error frequency of DFM-06 tends to increase below 200 hPa but RS80-15L and RS1524L show vice versa. Especially, the error frequency of RS1524L tends to increase rapidly over 200 hPa. Systematic biases of radiosonde show warm biases in case of temperature and dry biases in case of relative humidity compared with ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) analysis data and precipitable water vapor from GPS. The maximum and minimum values of systematic bias appear at the sensor of DFM-06 and RS92-SGP in case of temperature and RS80-15L and DFM-06 in case of relative humidity. The systematic warm and dry biases at all sensors tend to increase during daytime than nighttime because air temperature around sensor increases from the solar heating during daytime. Systematic biases of radiosonde are affected by the sensor type and the height of the sun but random errors are more correlated with the moisture conditions at each observation station.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.441-458
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• 2008

A TP/WVP-3000A, ground-based microwave radiometer, that was first introduced to South Korea has been operated since August 22, 2007 at the National Center for Intensive Observation of Severe Weathers (NCIO). Using the dual-band, the radiometer provides temperature and humidity soundings from the surface up to 10 km height with the high-temporal resolution of a few minutes. In this study, the performance of the radiometer on the predictability of the high impact weathers was evaluated and various practical applications were investigated. To verify the retrieved profile data from the radiometer, temperature and relative humidity soundings are compared with those from the rawinsonde launched at the NCIO and Gwangju station. The root mean squared errors for temperature and relative humidity soundings were smaller under rainy weather conditions. The correlation coefficient between PWVs (Precipitable Water Vapors) obtained from the radiometer and Global Positioning System satellite at Mokpo station is 0.92 on average. In order to investigate the structure and characteristics of precipitation, stability indexes related to rainfall such as the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), K-index, and Storm RElative Helicity (SREH) were calculated using windprofiler at the NCIO from 14 to 16 September, 2007. CAPE and K-index tended to be large when the thermodynamic unstability was strong. On the other hand, SREH index was dominantly large when the dynamic unstability was strong due to the passage of the typhoon 'Nari'.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.507-524
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• 2008

In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{\circ}{\sim}50^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.299-316
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• 2008

The intensive upper-air observation network was organized over southwestern region of the Korean Peninsula during the Korea Enhanced Observing Program in 2005 (KEOP-2005). In order to examine the effect of additional upper-air observation on the numerical weather forecasting, three Observing System Experiments (OSEs) using Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with KEOP-2005 data are conducted. Cold start case with KEOP-2005 data presents a remarkable predictability difference with only conventional observation data in the downstream and along the Changma front area. The sensitivity of the predictability tends to decrease under the stable atmosphere. Our results indicates that the effect of intensive observation plays a role in the forecasting of the sensitive area in the numerical model, especially under the unstable atmospheric conditions. When the intensive upper-air observation data (KEOP-2005 data) are included in the OSEs, the predictability of precipitation is partially improved. Especially, when KEOP-2005 data are assimilated at 6-hour interval, the predictability on the heavy rainfall showing higher Critical Success Index (CSI) is highly improved. Therefore it is found that KEOP-2005 data play an important role in improving the position and intensity of the simulated precipitation system.

• International Journal of Contents
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.65-73
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• 2019

Social media is a massive dataset in which individuals' thoughts are freely recorded. So there have been a variety of efforts to analyze it and to understand the social phenomenon. In this study, Twitter was used to define the moments when negative perceptions of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) were displayed and the reasons people were dissatisfied with the KMA. Machine learning methods were used for sentiment analysis to automatically train the implied awareness on Twitter which mentioned the KMA July-October 2011-2014. The trained models were used to validate sentiments on Twitter 2015-2016, and the frequency of negative sentiments was compared with the satisfaction of forecast users. It was found that the frequency of the negative sentiments increased before satisfaction decreased sharply. And the tweet keywords and the news headlines were qualitatively compared to analyze the cause of negative sentiments. As a result, it was revealed that the individual caused the increase in the monthly negative sentiments increase in 2016. This study represents the value of sentiment analysis that can complement user satisfaction surveys. Also, combining Twitter and news headlines provided the idea of analyzing the causes of dissatisfaction that are difficult to identify with only satisfaction surveys. The results contribute to improving user satisfaction with weather services by efficiently managing changes in satisfaction.