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http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2012.22.2.221

Projection of Extreme Precipitation at the end of 21st Century over South Korea based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)  

Sung, Jang Hyun (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA)
Kang, Hyun-Suk (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA)
Park, Suhee (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA)
Cho, ChunHo (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA)
Bae, Deg Hyo (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
Kim, Young-Oh (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.22, no.2, 2012 , pp. 221-231 More about this Journal
Abstract
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are the latest emission scenarios recommended to use for the fifth assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study investigates the projection of extreme precipitation in South Korea during the forthcoming 21st Century using the generalized extreme value (GEV) analysis based on two different RCP conditions i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Maximum daily precipitation required for GEV analysis for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from a high-resolution regional climate model forced by the corresponding global climate projections, which are produced within the CMIP5 framework. We found overall increase in frequency of extreme precipitation over South Korea in association with climate change. Particularly, daily extreme precipitation that has been occurred every 20 years in current climate (1980~2005) is likely to happen about every 4.3 and 3.4 years by the end of 21st Century (2070~2099) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 conditions, respectively.
Keywords
RCP; extreme precipitation; GEV; regional climate model;
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