• Title/Summary/Keyword: Investment Model

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Effects of Additional Constraints on Performance of Portfolio Selection Models with Incomplete Information : Case Study of Group Stocks in the Korean Stock Market (불완전 정보 하에서 추가적인 제약조건들이 포트폴리오 선정 모형의 성과에 미치는 영향 : 한국 주식시장의 그룹주 사례들을 중심으로)

  • Park, Kyungchan;Jung, Jongbin;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.15-33
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    • 2015
  • Under complete information, introducing additional constraints to a portfolio will have a negative impact on performance. However, real-life investments inevitably involve use of error-prone estimations, such as expected stock returns. In addition to the reality of incomplete data, investments of most Korean domestic equity funds are regulated externally by the government, as well as internally, resulting in limited maximum investment allocation to single stocks and risk free assets. This paper presents an investment framework, which takes such real-life situations into account, based on a newly developed portfolio selection model considering realistic constraints under incomplete information. Additionally, we examined the effects of additional constraints on portfolio's performance under incomplete information, taking the well-known Samsung and SK group stocks as performance benchmarks during the period beginning from the launch of each commercial fund, 2005 and 2007 respectively, up to 2013. The empirical study shows that an investment model, built under incomplete information with additional constraints, outperformed a model built without any constraints, and benchmarks, in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio.

A New Product Risk Model for the Electric Vehicle Industry in South Korea

  • CHU, Wujin;HONG, Yong-pyo;PARK, Wonkoo;IM, Meeja;SONG, Mee Ryoung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study examined a comprehensive model for assessing the success probability of electric vehicle (EV) commercialization in the Korean market. The study identified three risks associated with successful commercialization which were technology, social, policy, environmental, and consumer risk. Research design, methodology: The assessment of the riskiness was represented by a Bayes belief network, where the probability of success at each stage is conditioned on the outcome of the preceding stage. Probability of success in each stage is either dependent on input (i.e., investment) or external factors (i.e., air quality). Initial input stages were defined as the levels of investment in product R&D, battery technology, production facilities and battery charging facilities. Results: Reasonable levels of investment were obtained by expert opinion from industry experts. Also, a survey was carried out with 78 experts consisting of automaker engineers, managers working at EV parts manufacturers, and automobile industry researchers in government think tanks to obtain the conditional probability distributions. Conclusion: The output of the model was the likelihood of success - expressed as the probability of market acceptance - that depended on the various input values. A model is a useful tool for understanding the EV industry as a whole and explaining the likely ramifications of different investment levels.

Elaboration of Real Options Model and the Adequacy of Volatility

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.225-244
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    • 2017
  • When evaluating the economic value of technology or business project, we need to consider the period and cost for commercialization. Since the discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations in that it can not consider consecutive investment or does not reflect the probabilistic property of commercialization cost, we often take it desirable to apply the concept of real options with key metrics of underlying asset value, commercialization cost, and volatility, while regarding the value of technology and investment as the opportunity value. We at this moment provide more elaborated real options model with the effective region of volatility, which reflects the uncertainty in the option pricing model (OPM).

Long-Run Behavior of R&D Investment and Economic Growth : A Macro-Econometric Model

  • Shin, Tae-Young
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2004.02a
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    • pp.83-107
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    • 2004
  • This study investigates how and through which channels R&D activities influences the national economy, using a macro-econometric model. The macro-econometric model in this study includes 24 behavioral equations and 25 identities and was estimated using the annual data. From a simulation analysis, it is shown that the R&D investment has a permanent effect on real variables; lowering prices, wages and interest rates, and increasing potential and real GDP in the long run. It is noted that the national account was recalculated to avoid double-counting in estimation of R&D stocks.

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Multiobjective Decision Model with Consideration of Flexibility in Sequential Capital Budgeting

  • Min, Kye-Ryo;Park, Kyung-Soo
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.53-80
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    • 1981
  • This paper explores a rational investment decision model in sequential capital allocation process under capital rationing. A method is proposed for measuring the new investment decision factor which is the flexibility that describes the future availability of invested funds. This flexibility is important in sequential decision process. Also presented is a multiobjective (MO) decision model into which flexibility is incorporated with the profit and risk factors. The effectiveness of this criterion is compared with the expected present value and the mean-semivariance criteria through a simulation model.

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Cost and Benefit Analysis for Safety Management Cost by FMEA/HAZOP at Governor Station (가스 공급기지에서 FMEA/HAZOP에 의한 안전관리 비용-편익분석)

  • 장서일;이헌창;조지훈;오신규;김태옥
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2001
  • Cost-benefit analysis was investigated to propose the analysis method of the effect of investment and the optimum investment level of safety management cost for preventing gas accident in the B governor station. From five classifications of safety management costs consisting of cost items with similar characters and potential accident costs calculated by risk assessments(FMEA/HAZOP), we found that the order of the benefit(the reduction cost of the potential accident cost) was the instrument increase and repair cost > the safety checking and inspection cost > the labor and training cost > the safety equipment and corresponding cost > the research and development cost. As the benefit was increased with increasing the investment cost, the effect of investment was increased with decreasing the Investment cost. As a result, the optimum safety management cost was estimated and the investment level was analyzed by the model of optimum investment level.

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The Effects of Real Estate Taxation System on the Real Estate Investment Behavior and Performance (부동산세제의 부동산투자행동 및 성과에 대한 관련성)

  • Yun, Yun-Suk;Sim, Weon-Mi
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.181-187
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    • 2012
  • This study inquires into what effect the tax burden of investors, for typical taxes related to real estate investment; acquisition tax, comprehensive real estate holding tax, and transfer income tax, might have on the real estate investment behaviors; the purpose of long-term investment. These real estate investment behaviors have been analyzed to see how much they affect investment performance such as realized compound yield. This study model, which considers the fact that the choice of investment behavior for the degree of tax burden of investors may lead to different results in real estate investment, is expected to be an effective decision-making tool for investment.

A Study on the Effect of the Improvement of Investment Environment with Investment Incentive on National Economy

  • Moon, Jae-Young;Lee, Won-Hee;Choi, Pyeong-Rak;Suh, Yung-Ho
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.129-147
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    • 2008
  • This research is to investigate the effect of the improvement of investment environments with investment incentive on Korean national economy by looking into the foreign investment support system in Korea. To this end, first research model was set up based on our literary study and case study was conducted on 150 foreign companies that were located in industrial complex for foreign companies, received the tax benefit and government subsidization. And it was found that even though the foreign companies were contributing to the national economy in general such as in the area of production, export, employment, development of technology, there was no significant contributory difference between the investment incentive beneficiary and non-beneficiary foreign companies. Therefore it deemed reasonable to reconsider the way Korean government supports foreign companies in Korea and to reinforce foreign companies' relevance to national policy agenda with additional incentives to foreign companies located in comparatively less developed areas. As a way to promote foreign investment, promotion of investment infra such as improvement of follow-up services, openness to foreign investment, industrial deregulations in capital area, revitalization of free economic zone, efficient system to promote foreign investment and the reinforcement of public relations were considered necessary, especially the upgrading of economic structure and the integrated management of domestic and foreign investors deemed necessary for the optimal distribution of the industries.

Analysing the Determinants of Company R&D Investment Using a Semi-parametric Estimation Method (기업의 R&D 투자 결정요인 분석 - 준모수적 추정법을 적용하여 -)

  • 유승훈
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.279-297
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of company R&D investment with zero observations by using the data of R&D Scoreboard published by Ministry of Science and Technology(2002). Conventional parametric approach to dealing with zero investments is not robust to heteroscedastic and/or non-normal error structure. Thus, this study applies symmetrically trimmed least squares(STLS) estimation as a semi-parametric approach to dealing with zero R&D investments. The result of specification test indicates the semi-parametric approach outperforms the parametric approach significantly. Moreover, the results of the study provide various implications as summarized below. The R&D investment of IT company is larger than that of non-IT company. The R&D investment has a positive relation to foreigners' investment ratio. The higher degree of financial self-reliance is, the larger the R&D investment is. Firm size variables such as sales amount and the number of workers are positively related to R&D investment. The sales elasticity of R&D investment is larger than one. However, the workers elasticity of R&D investment is smaller than one.

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Estimating Optimum Investment Cost for Obsolete School Buildings (노후화된 학교건물의 적정시설투자비 산정모델 적용사례)

  • Huh, Young-Ki
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.10-25
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    • 2011
  • Area Offices of Education in Korea assign and execute government budget based on the evaluation of school buildings' safety rating and degree of their deterioration. However, it is never easy to estimate the most appropriate investment amount for old buildings under consideration of their service lives and residual values together. A model of estimating optimum investment cost for obsolete school building is developed taking its life cycle cost into account. The model is also applied to six old buildings in five different schools and found that some of the facilities hardly needed further investment and were better to be rebuilt. The study results will be a great beneficial for officers to make right decision on maintaining obsolete school buildings and to maximize tax payers' money.