• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제30권4C호
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• pp.296-304
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• 2005

본 논문에서는 네트워크의 생존성을 보장하고 신뢰성 높은 인터넷 서비스를 제공하기 위해 인터넷의 액세스점에 위치하는 예측기반 이상 트래픽 제어기(ATCoP, Abnormal Traffic Controller based on Prediction)를 제안한다. ATCoP는 네트워크로 유입되는 트래픽 중 이상 트래픽을 제어하는 방법으로서, 알려지지 않은 공격에 의해 트래픽이 과다하게 발생하는 경우에, 정상 트래픽에 우선권을 주기 위해 서비스 성공률을 측정하고 그 결과를 기준으로 정상 트래픽용 예약 채널의 수를 결정하여 정상 트래픽의 서비스 수준을 보장함으로써 서비스 생존성을 높히는 방법이다. 만일 예약 채널의 수가 증가하면, 이상트래픽에 할당되는 채널의 수가 감소하게 되어 이상트래픽의 서비스 생존율은 감소하게 된다. 분석결과, 제안 방식은 입력트래픽의 특정 범위에서는 정상트래픽의 블록킹율을 일정 수준으로 유지시켜주는 효과가 있음을 알 수 있었다.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.621-624
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• 2011

With the rapid growth of internet traffic, accurate and reliable prediction of internet traffic has been a key issue in network management and planning. This paper proposes an autoregressive-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (AR-GARCH) error model for forecasting internet traffic and evaluates its performance by comparing it with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) criterion. The results indicated that the seasonal AR-GARCH models outperformed the seasonal ARIMA models in terms of forecasting accuracy with respect to the RMSE criterion.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.1975-1988
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• 2019

Short-term traffic flow prediction plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) in areas such as transportation management, traffic control and guidance. For short-term traffic flow regression predictions, the main challenge stems from the non-stationary property of traffic flow data. In this paper, we design an ensemble cascading prediction framework based on extremely randomized trees (extra-trees) using a boosting technique called EET to predict the short-term traffic flow under non-stationary environments. Extra-trees is a tree-based ensemble method. It essentially consists of strongly randomizing both the attribute and cut-point choices while splitting a tree node. This mechanism reduces the variance of the model and is, therefore, more suitable for traffic flow regression prediction in non-stationary environments. Moreover, the extra-trees algorithm uses boosting ensemble technique averaging to improve the predictive accuracy and control overfitting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that extra-trees have been used as fundamental building blocks in boosting committee machines. The proposed approach involves predicting 5 min in advance using real-time traffic flow data in the context of inherently considering temporal and spatial correlations. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and lower variance and computational complexity when compared to the existing methods.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.841-854
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• 2020

The paper explains the method to process, analyze and predict traffic patterns in Los Angeles county using Big Data and Machine Learning. The dataset is used from a popular navigating platform in the USA, which tracks information on the road using connected users' devices and also collects reports shared by the users through the app. The dataset mainly consists of information about traffic jams and traffic incidents reported by users, such as road closure, hazards, accidents. The major contribution of this paper is to give a clear view of how the large-scale road traffic data can be stored and processed using the Big Data system - Hadoop and its ecosystem (Hive). In addition, analysis is explained with the help of visuals using Business Intelligence and prediction with classification machine learning model on the sampled traffic data is presented using Azure ML. The process of modeling, as well as results, are interpreted using metrics: accuracy, precision and recall.

• 한국정보전자통신기술학회논문지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.115-121
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• 2021

본 논문은 급증하는 인터넷 트래픽예측을 위해 빅데이터와 인공지능기술을 이용하였다. 기존에 트래픽 예측에 관해 다양한 연구가 있었지만 최근 스마트폰이나 스트리밍 등 거대한 인터넷 트래픽을 유발하는 증가 요소를 반영하지는 못했다. 더불어 대용량 인기 게임 출시나 OTT(Over the Top)사업자의 신규 컨텐츠 제공과 같은 이벤트성 요소는 사전 예측이 더욱 어렵다. 이러한 특성으로 기존 방법으로는 ISP(Internet Service Provider)가 실시간적 서비스 품질관리나 트래픽 예측치를 네트워크 사업환경에 반영하기가 불가능하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하고자 기존 NMS와는 별개로 트래픽 데이터를 실시간적으로 탐색, 판별하여 수집하는 인터넷 트래픽 수집시스템을 구축하였다. 이를 통해 수집대상의 데이터를 자동등록할 수 있는 유연성과 탄력성을 확보하였으며 실시간 네트워크 품질모니터링을 가능하게 하였다. 또한 시스템에서 수집된 대량의 트래픽 데이터를 머신러닝(AI)으로 분석하여 OTT 사업자의 미래 트래픽을 예측하였다. 이를 통해 보다 과학적이고 체계적인 예측이 가능해졌으며 더불어 ISP 사업자 간의 연동 최적화와 대형 OTT 서비스의 품질확보가 가능할 수 있게 되었다.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제14권9호
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• pp.3598-3614
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• 2020

With the increase of motor vehicles and tourism demand, some traffic problems gradually appear, such as traffic congestion, safety accidents and insufficient allocation of traffic resources. Facing these challenges, a model of Spatio-Temporal Dilated Convolutional Network (STDGCN) is proposed for assistance of extracting highly nonlinear and complex characteristics to accurately predict the future traffic flow. In particular, we model the traffic as undirected graphs, on which graph convolutions are built to extract spatial feature informations. Furthermore, a dilated convolution is deployed into graph convolution for capturing multi-scale contextual messages. The proposed STDGCN integrates the dilated convolution into the graph convolution, which realizes the extraction of the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic flow data, as well as features of road occupancy. To observe the performance of the proposed model, we compare with it with four rivals. We also employ four indicators for evaluation. The experimental results show STDGCN's effectiveness. The prediction accuracy is improved by 17% in comparison with the traditional prediction methods on various real-world traffic datasets.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.216-238
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• 2023

In intelligent transportation systems, traffic management is an important task. The accurate forecasting of traffic characteristics like flow, congestion, and density is still active research because of the non-linear nature and uncertainty of the spatiotemporal data. Inclement weather, such as rain and snow, and other special events such as holidays, accidents, and road closures have a significant impact on driving and the average speed of vehicles on the road, which lowers traffic capacity and causes congestion in a widespread manner. This work designs a model for multivariate short-term traffic congestion prediction using SLSTM_AE-BiLSTM. The proposed design consists of a Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM) network to predict traffic flow value and a Convolutional Neural network (CNN) model for detecting the congestion status. This model uses spatial static temporal dynamic data. The stacked Long Short Term Memory Autoencoder (SLSTM AE) is used to encode the weather features into a reduced and more informative feature space. BiLSTM model is used to capture the features from the past and present traffic data simultaneously and also to identify the long-term dependencies. It uses the traffic data and encoded weather data to perform the traffic flow prediction. The CNN model is used to predict the recurring congestion status based on the predicted traffic flow value at a particular urban traffic network. In this work, a publicly available Caltrans PEMS dataset with traffic parameters is used. The proposed model generates the congestion prediction with an accuracy rate of 92.74% which is slightly better when compared with other deep learning models for congestion prediction.

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.88-97
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• 2023

Traffic flow prediction is of great significance in urban planning and traffic management. As the complexity of urban traffic increases, existing prediction methods still face challenges, especially for the fusion of spatiotemporal information and the capture of long-term dependencies. This study aims to use the fusion model of graph neural network to solve the spatio-temporal information fusion problem in traffic flow prediction. We propose a new deep learning model Spatio-Temporal Information Fusion using Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN). We use GCN module, TCN module and LSTM module alternately to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. GCN and multi-core TCN capture the temporal and spatial dependencies of traffic flow respectively, and LSTM connects multiple fusion modules to carry out spatiotemporal information fusion. In the experimental evaluation of real traffic flow data, STFGNN showed better performance than other models.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.2964-2985
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• 2019

Global data center IP traffic is expected to reach 20.6 zettabytes (ZB) by the end of 2021. Intra-data center networks (Intra-DCN) will account for 71.5% of the data center traffic flow and will be the largest portion of the traffic. The understanding of traffic distribution in IntraDCN is still sketchy. It causes significant amount of bandwidth to go unutilized, and creates avoidable choke points. Conventional transport protocols such as Optical Packet Switching (OPS) and Optical Burst Switching (OBS) allow a one-sided view of the traffic flow in the network. This therefore causes disjointed and uncoordinated decision-making at each node. For effective resource planning, there is the need to consider joining the distributed with centralized management which anticipates the system's needs and regulates the entire network. Methods derived from Kalman filters have proved effective in planning road networks. Considering the network available bandwidth as data transport highways, we propose an intelligent enhanced SDN concept applied to OBS architecture. A management plane (MP) is added to conventional control (CP) and data planes (DP). The MP assembles the traffic spatio-temporal parameters from ingress nodes, uses Kalman filtering prediction-based algorithm to estimate traffic demand. Prior to packets arrival at edges nodes, it regularly forwards updates of resources allocation to CPs. Simulations were done on a hybrid scheme (1+1) and on the centralized OBS. The results demonstrated that the proposition decreases the packet loss ratio. It also improves network latency and throughput-up to 84 and 51%, respectively, versus the traditional scheme.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.136-151
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• 2016

Flexible large-scale WLANs are now widely deployed in crowded and highly mobile places such as campus, airport, shopping mall and company etc. But network management is hard for large-scale WLANs due to highly uneven interference and throughput among links. So the traffic is difficult to predict accurately. In the paper, through analysis of traffic in two real large-scale WLANs, Granger Causality is found in both scenarios. In combination with information entropy, it shows that the traffic prediction of target AP considering Granger Causality can be more predictable than that utilizing target AP alone, or that of considering irrelevant APs. So We develops new method -Granger Causality and Vector Auto-Regression (GCVAR), which takes APs series sharing Granger Causality based on Vector Auto-regression (VAR) into account, to predict the traffic flow in two real scenarios, thus redundant and noise introduced by multivariate time series could be removed. Experiments show that GCVAR is much more effective compared to that of traditional univariate time series (e.g. ARIMA, WARIMA). In particular, GCVAR consumes two orders of magnitude less than that caused by ARIMA/WARIMA.