• Title/Summary/Keyword: Internet models

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A Study on the Differences of Information Diffusion Based on the Type of Media and Information (매체와 정보유형에 따른 정보확산 차이에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Gun;Kim, Jin-Hwa;Baek, Heon;Lee, Eui-Bang
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2013
  • While the use of internet is routine nowadays, users receive and share information through a variety of media. Through the use of internet, information delivery media is diversifying from traditional media of one-way communication, such as newspaper, TV, and radio, into media of two-way communication. In contrast of traditional media, blogs enable individuals to directly upload and share news, which can be considered to have a differential speed of information diffusion than news media that convey information unilaterally. Therefore this Study focused on the difference between online news and social media blogs. Moreover, there are variations in the speed of information diffusion because that information closely related to one person boosts communications between individuals. We believe that users' standard of evaluation would change based on the types of information. As well, the speed of information diffusion would change based on the level of proximity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the differences in information diffusion based on the types of media. And then information is segmentalized and an examination is done to see how information diffusion differentiates based on the types of information. This study used the Bass diffusion model, which has been frequently used because this model has higher explanatory power than other models by explaining diffusion of market through innovation effect and imitation effect. Also this model has been applied a lot in other information diffusion related studies. The Bass diffusion model includes an innovation effect and an imitation effect. Innovation effect measures the early-stage impact, while the imitation effect measures the impact of word of mouth at the later stage. According to Mahajan et al. (2000), Innovation effect is emphasized by usefulness and ease-of-use, as well Imitation effect is emphasized by subjective norm and word-of-mouth. Also, according to Lee et al. (2011), Innovation effect is emphasized by mass communication. According to Moore and Benbasat (1996), Innovation effect is emphasized by relative advantage. Because Imitation effect is adopted by within-group influences and Innovation effects is adopted by product's or service's innovation. Therefore, ours study compared online news and social media blogs to examine the differences between media. We also choose different types of information including entertainment related information "Psy Gentelman", Current affair news "Earthquake in Sichuan, China", and product related information "Galaxy S4" in order to examine the variations on information diffusion. We considered that users' information proximity alters based on the types of information. Hence, we chose the three types of information mentioned above, which have different level of proximity from users' standpoint, in order to examine the flow of information diffusion. The first conclusion of this study is that different media has similar effect on information diffusion, even the types of media of information provider are different. Information diffusion has only been distinguished by a disparity between proximity of information. Second, information diffusions differ based on types of information. From the standpoint of users, product and entertainment related information has high imitation effect because of word of mouth. On the other hand, imitation effect dominates innovation effect on Current affair news. From the results of this study, the flow changes of information diffusion is examined and be applied to practical use. This study has some limitations, and those limitations would be able to provide opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference of Information diffusion according to media and proximity has difficulties for generalization of theory due to small sample size. Therefore, if further studies adopt to a request for an increase of sample size and media diversity, difference of the information diffusion according to media type and information proximity could be understood more detailed.

An Empirical Study on Motivation Factors and Reward Structure for User's Createve Contents Generation: Focusing on the Mediating Effect of Commitment (창의적인 UCC 제작에 영향을 미치는 동기 및 보상 체계에 대한 연구: 몰입에 매개 효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Woo;Yang, Seung-Hwa;Lim, Seong-Taek;Lee, In-Seong
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.141-170
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    • 2010
  • User created content (UCC) is created and shared by common users on line. From the user's perspective, the increase of UCCs has led to an expansion of alternative means of communications, while from the business perspective UCCs have formed an environment in which an abundant amount of new contents can be produced. Despite outward quantitative growth, however, many aspects of UCCs do not meet the expectations of general users in terms of quality, and this can be observed through pirated contents and user-copied contents. The purpose of this research is to investigate effective methods for fostering production of creative user-generated content. This study proposes two core elements, namely, reward and motivation, which are believed to enhance content creativity as well as the mediating factor and users' committement, which will be effective for bridging the increasing motivation and content creativity. Based on this perspective, this research takes an in-depth look at issues related to constructing the dimensions of reward and motivation in UCC services for creative content product, which are identified in three phases. First, three dimensions of rewards have been proposed: task dimension, social dimension, and organizational dimention. The task dimension rewards are related to the inherent characteristics of a task such as writing blog articles and pasting photos. Four concrete ways of providing task-related rewards in UCC environments are suggested in this study, which include skill variety, task significance, task identity, and autonomy. The social dimensioni rewards are related to the connected relationships among users. The organizational dimension consists of monetary payoff and recognition from others. Second, the two types of motivations are suggested to be affected by the diverse rewards schemes: intrinsic motivation and extrinsic motivation. Intrinsic motivation occurs when people create new UCC contents for its' own sake, whereas extrinsic motivation occurs when people create new contents for other purposes such as fame and money. Third, commitments are suggested to work as important mediating variables between motivation and content creativity. We believe commitments are especially important in online environments because they have been found to exert stronger impacts on the Internet users than other relevant factors do. Two types of commitments are suggested in this study: emotional commitment and continuity commitment. Finally, content creativity is proposed as the final dependent variable in this study. We provide a systematic method to measure the creativity of UCC content based on the prior studies in creativity measurement. The method includes expert evaluation of blog pages posted by the Internet users. In order to test the theoretical model of our study, 133 active blog users were recruited to participate in a group discussion as well as a survey. They were asked to fill out a questionnaire on their commitment, motivation and rewards of creating UCC contents. At the same time, their creativity was measured by independent experts using Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking. Finally, two independent users visited the study participants' blog pages and evaluated their content creativity using the Creative Products Semantic Scale. All the data were compiled and analyzed through structural equation modeling. We first conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the measurement model of our research. It was found that measures used in our study satisfied the requirement of reliability, convergent validity as well as discriminant validity. Given the fact that our measurement model is valid and reliable, we proceeded to conduct a structural model analysis. The results indicated that all the variables in our model had higher than necessary explanatory powers in terms of R-square values. The study results identified several important reward shemes. First of all, skill variety, task importance, task identity, and automony were all found to have significant influences on the intrinsic motivation of creating UCC contents. Also, the relationship with other users was found to have strong influences upon both intrinsic and extrinsic motivation. Finally, the opportunity to get recognition for their UCC work was found to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation of UCC users. However, different from our expectation, monetary compensation was found not to have a significant impact on the extrinsic motivation. It was also found that commitment was an important mediating factor in UCC environment between motivation and content creativity. A more fully mediating model was found to have the highest explanation power compared to no-mediation or partially mediated models. This paper ends with implications of the study results. First, from the theoretical perspective this study proposes and empirically validates the commitment as an important mediating factor between motivation and content creativity. This result reflects the characteristics of online environment in which the UCC creation activities occur voluntarily. Second, from the practical perspective this study proposes several concrete reward factors that are germane to the UCC environment, and their effectiveness to the content creativity is estimated. In addition to the quantitive results of relative importance of the reward factrs, this study also proposes concrete ways to provide the rewards in the UCC environment based on the FGI data that are collected after our participants finish asnwering survey questions. Finally, from the methodological perspective, this study suggests and implements a way to measure the UCC content creativity independently from the content generators' creativity, which can be used later by future research on UCC creativity. In sum, this study proposes and validates important reward features and their relations to the motivation, commitment, and the content creativity in UCC environment, which is believed to be one of the most important factors for the success of UCC and Web 2.0. As such, this study can provide significant theoretical as well as practical bases for fostering creativity in UCC contents.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

A Study on the animation music video production for the viral marketing purposes A case study of project (바이럴 마케팅용 애니메이션 뮤직비디오 제작 연구 : 월드컵 응원가 <일어나라 대한민국> 사례를 중심으로)

  • Han, Sang-Gyun;Kim, Tak-Hoon;Kim, Yu-Mi
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.22
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    • pp.47-63
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    • 2011
  • Recently, contemporary cultural contents have been shown its diversity changes followed by the birth of new media platforms with consumers' new needs in the global market. Also, developments of Internet and computer system networks are the main contributors of making this changes happened rapidly. This study aims to know that how to usefully use those new media platforms through the great example of stop-motion animation music video by analyzing its production and marketing process. The music video production had been focused to be completed with high quality by adjusting the production process economically in spite of the relatively short period(less than one month)from its crank-up to the deadline. Because the production was planned that main characters lead the whole story, the creative team had been tried to reduce the production hours by commonly use the same mold when they make original clay models by collecting the similarities of characters' appearances. By using CG technic, could overcome the visual monotonous from the similarities which inferred above. Also, the repeated rhythm in the music video, the similar scenes of backgrounds were commonly used by copy of the original scene. At the point of directing, the creative team considered both economical and art aspects for the quality work. In details, they divided the scenes into foreground and background, and removed unnecessary parts to save the production hours and budget but make depth of fields in the scenes. Except the viral marketing purposes, was searching for the methods to compensate the production cost. For this, the characters in the music video dressed the same T-shirts which are world-cup logo on, and those were designed for the sale after released the music video. Even the result of the sales was not enough to satisfied, it was estimated a great attempt to the domestic animation industry.

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Annotation Method based on Face Area for Efficient Interactive Video Authoring (효과적인 인터랙티브 비디오 저작을 위한 얼굴영역 기반의 어노테이션 방법)

  • Yoon, Ui Nyoung;Ga, Myeong Hyeon;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2015
  • Many TV viewers use mainly portal sites in order to retrieve information related to broadcast while watching TV. However retrieving information that people wanted needs a lot of time to retrieve the information because current internet presents too much information which is not required. Consequentially, this process can't satisfy users who want to consume information immediately. Interactive video is being actively investigated to solve this problem. An interactive video provides clickable objects, areas or hotspots to interact with users. When users click object on the interactive video, they can see additional information, related to video, instantly. The following shows the three basic procedures to make an interactive video using interactive video authoring tool: (1) Create an augmented object; (2) Set an object's area and time to be displayed on the video; (3) Set an interactive action which is related to pages or hyperlink; However users who use existing authoring tools such as Popcorn Maker and Zentrick spend a lot of time in step (2). If users use wireWAX then they can save sufficient time to set object's location and time to be displayed because wireWAX uses vision based annotation method. But they need to wait for time to detect and track object. Therefore, it is required to reduce the process time in step (2) using benefits of manual annotation method and vision-based annotation method effectively. This paper proposes a novel annotation method allows annotator to easily annotate based on face area. For proposing new annotation method, this paper presents two steps: pre-processing step and annotation step. The pre-processing is necessary because system detects shots for users who want to find contents of video easily. Pre-processing step is as follow: 1) Extract shots using color histogram based shot boundary detection method from frames of video; 2) Make shot clusters using similarities of shots and aligns as shot sequences; and 3) Detect and track faces from all shots of shot sequence metadata and save into the shot sequence metadata with each shot. After pre-processing, user can annotates object as follow: 1) Annotator selects a shot sequence, and then selects keyframe of shot in the shot sequence; 2) Annotator annotates objects on the relative position of the actor's face on the selected keyframe. Then same objects will be annotated automatically until the end of shot sequence which has detected face area; and 3) User assigns additional information to the annotated object. In addition, this paper designs the feedback model in order to compensate the defects which are wrong aligned shots, wrong detected faces problem and inaccurate location problem might occur after object annotation. Furthermore, users can use interpolation method to interpolate position of objects which is deleted by feedback. After feedback user can save annotated object data to the interactive object metadata. Finally, this paper shows interactive video authoring system implemented for verifying performance of proposed annotation method which uses presented models. In the experiment presents analysis of object annotation time, and user evaluation. First, result of object annotation average time shows our proposed tool is 2 times faster than existing authoring tools for object annotation. Sometimes, annotation time of proposed tool took longer than existing authoring tools, because wrong shots are detected in the pre-processing. The usefulness and convenience of the system were measured through the user evaluation which was aimed at users who have experienced in interactive video authoring system. Recruited 19 experts evaluates of 11 questions which is out of CSUQ(Computer System Usability Questionnaire). CSUQ is designed by IBM for evaluating system. Through the user evaluation, showed that proposed tool is useful for authoring interactive video than about 10% of the other interactive video authoring systems.

The Construction of QoS Integration Platform for Real-time Negotiation and Adaptation Stream Service in Distributed Object Computing Environments (분산 객체 컴퓨팅 환경에서 실시간 협약 및 적응 스트림 서비스를 위한 QoS 통합 플랫폼의 구축)

  • Jun, Byung-Taek;Kim, Myung-Hee;Joo, Su-Chong
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.7 no.11S
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    • pp.3651-3667
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    • 2000
  • Recently, in the distributed multimedia environments based on internet, as radical growing technologies, the most of researchers focus on both streaming technology and distributed object thchnology, Specially, the studies which are tried to integrate the streaming services on the distributed object technology have been progressing. These technologies are applied to various stream service mamgements and protocols. However, the stream service management mexlels which are being proposed by the existing researches are insufficient for suporting the QoS of stream services. Besides, the existing models have the problems that cannot support the extensibility and the reusability, when the QoS-reiatedfunctions are being developed as a sub-module which is suited on the specific-purpose application services. For solving these problems, in this paper. we suggested a QoS Integrated platform which can extend and reuse using the distributed object technologies, and guarantee the QoS of the stream services. A structure of platform we suggested consists of three components such as User Control Module(UCM), QoS Management Module(QoSM) and Stream Object. Stream Object has Send/Receive operations for transmitting the RTP packets over TCP/IP. User Control ModuleI(UCM) controls Stream Objects via the COREA service objects. QoS Management Modulel(QoSM) has the functions which maintain the QoS of stream service between the UCMs in client and server. As QoS control methexlologies, procedures of resource monitoring, negotiation, and resource adaptation are executed via the interactions among these comiXments mentioned above. For constmcting this QoS integrated platform, we first implemented the modules mentioned above independently, and then, used IDL for defining interfaces among these mexlules so that can support platform independence, interoperability and portability base on COREA. This platform is constructed using OrbixWeb 3.1c following CORBA specification on Solaris 2.5/2.7, Java language, Java, Java Media Framework API 2.0, Mini-SQL1.0.16 and multimedia equipments. As results for verifying this platform functionally, we showed executing results of each module we mentioned above, and a numerical data obtained from QoS control procedures on client and server's GUI, while stream service is executing on our platform.

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Transfer and Validation of NIRS Calibration Models for Evaluating Forage Quality in Italian Ryegrass Silages (이탈리안 라이그라스 사일리지의 품질평가를 위한 근적외선분광 (NIRS) 검량식의 이설 및 검증)

  • Cho, Kyu Chae;Park, Hyung Soo;Lee, Sang Hoon;Choi, Jin Hyeok;Seo, Sung;Choi, Gi Jun
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.18 no.sup
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2012
  • This study was evaluated high end research grade Near infrared spectrophotometer (NIRS) to low end popular field grade multiple Near infrared spectrophotometer (NIRS) for rapid analysis at forage quality at sight with 241 samples of Italian ryegrass silage during 3 years collected whole country for evaluate accuracy and precision between instruments. Firstly collected and build database high end research grade NIRS using with Unity Scientific Model 2500X (650 nm~2,500 nm) then trim and fit to low end popular field grade NIRS with Unity Scientific Model 1400 (1,400 nm~2,400 nm) then build and create calibration, transfer calibration with special transfer algorithm. The result between instruments was 0.000%~0.343% differences, rapidly analysis for chemical constituents, NDF, ADF, and crude protein, crude ash and fermentation parameter such as moisture, pH and lactic acid, finally forage quality parameter, TDN, DMI, RFV within 5 minutes at sight and the result equivalent with laboratory data. Nevertheless during 3 years collected samples for build calibration was organic samples that make differentiate by local or yearly bases etc. This strongly suggest population evaluation technique needed and constantly update calibration and maintenance calibration to proper handling database accumulation and spread out by knowledgable control laboratory analysis and reflect calibration update such as powerful control center needed for long lasting usage of forage analysis with NIRS at sight. Especially the agriculture products such as forage will continuously changes that made easily find out the changes and update routinely, if not near future NIRS was worthless due to those changes. Many research related NIRS was shortly study not long term study that made not well using NIRS, so the system needed check simple and instantly using with local language supported signal methods Global Distance (GD) and Neighbour Distance (ND) algorithm. Finally the multiple popular field grades instruments should be the same results not only between research grade instruments but also between multiple popular field grade instruments that needed easily transfer calibration and maintenance between instruments via internet networking techniques.

The Analysis for Minimum Infective Dose of Foodborne Disease Pathogens by Meta-analysis (메타분석에 의한 식중독 원인 미생물들의 최소감염량 분석)

  • Park, Myoung Su;Cho, June Ill;Lee, Soon Ho;Bahk, Gyung Jin
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2014
  • Minimum infective dose (MID) data has been recognized as an important and absolutely needed in quantitative microbiological assessment (QMRA). In this study, we performed a comprehensive literature review and meta-analysis to better quantify this association. The meta-analysis applied a final selection of 82 published papers for total 12 species foodborne disease pathogens (bacteria 9, virus 2, and parasite 1 species) which were identified and classified based on the dose-response models related to QMRA studies from PubMed, ScienceDirect database and internet websites during 1980-2012. The main search keywords used the combination "food", "foodborne disease pathogen", "minimum infective dose", and "quantitative microbiological risk assessment". The appropriate minimum infective dose for B. cereus, C. jejuni, Cl. perfringens, Pathogenic E. coli (EHEC, ETEC, EPEC, EIEC), L. monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., S. aureus, V. parahaemolyticus, Hepatitis A virus, Noro virus, and C. pavum were $10^5cells/g$ (fi = 0.32), 500 cells/g (fi = 0.57), $10^7cells/g$ (fi = 0.56), 10 cells/g (fi = 0.47) / $10^8cells/g$ (fi = 0.71) / $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.70) / $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.60), $10^2{\sim}10^3cells/g$ (fi = 0.23), 10 cells/g (fi = 0.30), 100 cells/g (fi = 0.32), $10^5cells/g$ (fi = 0.45), $10^6cells/g$ (fi = 0.64), $10{\sim}10^2particles/g$ (fi = 0.33), 10 particles/g (fi = 0.71), and $10{\sim}10^2oocyst/g$ (fi = 0.33), respectively. Therefore, these results provide the preliminary data necessary for the development of foodborne pathogens QMRA.

Discourse Analysis of Business Chinese and the Comparison of Negotiation Culture between Korea and China - Focused on Business Emails Related to 'Napkin Holder' Imports - (무역 중국어 담화 고찰과 한중 협상문화 비교 - '냅킨꽂이' 수입 관련 비즈니스 이메일을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Tae-Hoon
    • Cross-Cultural Studies
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    • v.50
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    • pp.103-130
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    • 2018
  • This research aims to explore the associated linguistic features and functions of Chinese as used for business trading purposes, and which is based on a discourse analysis through a case in which a Korean buyer and a Chinese supplier have exchanged Internet based e-mails. The research questions include first, the linguistic functions and characteristics of Chinese shown as identified in this trade case through e-mails, second, the use of Chinese trade specific terms, and third, the apparent and dynamic negotiation strategies that are identified as followed by the cultural value systems which are used for resolving interest conflicts and issues between the buyer and supplier in the course of negotiating business contracts between two parties. The participants of this research pertain to a Korean buyer, James and a Chinese supplier, Sonya. The associated data consists of 74 e-mails exchanged between the two parties, initiated in an effort to begin and complete a trade item, in this case namely the product of napkin holders. The research for the study is based on the discourse analysis and empirically analyses models of Chinese linguistic functions and features. The findings are the following. First, as identified, the specific Chinese functions used and sequenced in this trade case are of a procedure, request, informing, negotiation and persuasion. Second, the essential trade terms used in this business interaction involve the relevant issues of 1) ordering and price negotiating, 2) marking the origin of the products, 3) the arrangement of the product examination and customs declaration for the anticipated import items, 4) preparation of the necessary legal documents, and 5) the package and transport of the product in the final instance. Third, the impact of the similarities and differences in the cultural value systems between Korea and China on the negotiations and conflict resolution during a negotiated contract between two parties are speculated in terms of the use of culturally based techniques such as face-saving and the utilization of uncertainty-avoiding strategies as meant to prevent misunderstandings from developing between the parties. The concluding part of the study discusses the implications for a practical Chinese language education utilizing the linguistic functions and features of the Chinese culture and language strategies as useful in business associations for trading purposes, and the importance of intercultural communication styles based on similar of different identified cultural values as noted between two parties.

Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.