• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.535-542
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• 2012

소비자물가지수는 국가의 중요한 경제 척도 중의 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 4개 도시, 서울, 부산, 대구, 광주지역의 소비자물가지수를 연구하였다. 자료는 모두 통계청에서 발췌하였고, 기간은 1998년-2011년 월별자료이며, 시계열분석 기법인 자기회귀오차모형으로 분석하였다. 소비자물가 분석을 위한 설명변수는 9가지 경제변수인 경기동행지수, 미국환욜, 생산자물가지수, 원유수입단가, 원유수입물량, 국제경상수지, 수입물가지수, 실업율, 화폐통화량을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 자기회귀오차모형으로 각 지역별 소비자물가지수를 46%-52% 정도 설명할 수 있다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.413-440
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• 2010

2000년 이후 국제유가의 불안정성으로 인한 에너지 자원 확보의 중요성이 강조되면서 에너지 자원의 대안 시장으로 카스피해 연안국가들에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있다. 특히 아제르바이잔은 중앙아시아 신흥석유 수출국으로서 해외자본의 유입, BTC 송유관 개통 등으로 인해 급속한 경제성장을 이루었다. 그러나 높은 경제성장에도 불구하고 경제구조가 에너지 산업에 집중되는 등 경제구조의 불균형을 보이고 있으며, 최근 실질환율 상승의 압박 및 인플레이션이 가속화되고 있다. 아제르바이잔 경제의 지속가능성을 파악하기 위해 본 연구에서는 분석대상기간을 2001년 1월부터 2007년 12월까지의 전체 표본기간, BTC 개통을 기점으로 BTC 개통 이전과 이후의 기간 등 세 단계로 구분하였으며, 벡터오차수정모형을 이용하여 분석을 시도하였다. 실증분석 결과, 아제르바이잔은 분석기간 동안 경기침체 증상을 보였으며, 이는 고유가의 영향과 BTC 송유관 개통으로 인한 수출의 급증이 아제르바이잔 실질환율을 하락(평가절상)시키는 주원인임을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 장기적인 경제발전의 기반이 될 제조업의 경쟁력에 부정적 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.217-240
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• 2011

이 연구는 VAR 모형을 이용하여 국제유가가 BDI, 선형에 따라 BCI, BPI 등 3개의 운임 지수에 각각 어떠한 영향을 미치는지와 VECM모형을 이용하여 케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장 간의 파급효과를 분석하였다. 첫째, VAR모형을 이용하여 국제유가의 변화가 BCI에 미치는 효과는 시차 1기의 경우 통계적으로 정(+)의 유의적인 효과를 갖고, BPI의 경우에는 시차 3기의 경우에만 음(-)의 유의적인 효과를 갖고, BDI 운임지수에 미치는 효과는 시차 1기의 경우 통계적으로 정(+)의 유의적인 효과를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 충격반응함수 분석의 결과는 국제유가의 충격으로부터 BDI의 반응은 약 3개월 정도 지속적으로 상승하다가 이후로는 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, VECM모형을 이용하여 케이프사이즈와 파나막스 시장 간의 파급효과를 분석한 결과는 BCI와 BPI 운임지수 간에 장기적인 균형관계로부터의 이탈이 발생하는 경우 BPI 운임지수가 감소하는 방향으로 조정되었다. 또한 동태적인 상관관계의 경우 시차 1기의 케이프사이즈 시장에서의 운임이 상승하면 금기의 파나막스 시장에서의 운임이 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. BCI와 BPI 운임지수간의 동학적인 충격반응함수의 분석으로부터 BCI 운임지수의 충격으로부터 BPI 운임지수의 반응은 약 3개월 정도 가파르게 상승하다가 5개월 이후로는 변화가 없는 것으로 나타났고, BPI 운임지수의 충격에 대한 BCI 운임지수의 충격반응의 정도는 매우 작게 나타났으며, 약 3개월 정도 완만하게 상승하다가 이후로 거의 변화가 없는 것으로 나타났다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.653-682
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• 2007

In this study, multi-sectoral partial equilibrium and computable general equilibrium models of Taiwan are used to investigate the direct and indirect effects of energy price increases on overall economies and agro-food sector in Taiwan. The results suggest that agricultural prices, production cost would increase between 0.27% to 1.88%, and a reduction in GDP around 0.39% to 0.54 %. The negative impact on livestock sector is slightly higher than that on the crop sector. Negative impacts are also observed in the employment and wages. The rising oil price has the potential to discourage production of energy-intensive activity because of the possibility of substitution and adaptations. The growth rate of real GDP will shrink by 0.64% to 1.06% and CPI will increase by 1.17% to 1,95%. Both the agriculture and non-agricultural sector also respond by raising output prices by 0.80% to 1.33%. The rising international oil price has urged the government to take policy actions like using alternative fuels such as biodiesel, bioethanol, and adopting measures to cut down on energy consumptions mainly in transportation sectors in response to public concern over economic shocks.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제42권4호
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• pp.1-25
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• 2020

The international community's sanctions against North Korea, triggered by North Korea's nuclear tests and by missile development in the country, are considered the strongest sanctions in history, banning exports of North Korea's major items and limiting imports of machinery and oil products. Accordingly, North Korea's trade volume decreased to the level of collapse after the sanctions, meaning that the sanctions against North Korea were considered to be effective. However, according to this paper, which analyzed the price fluctuations of refined petroleum products in North Korea through the methodology of an event study, the market prices of oil products were only temporarily affected by the sanctions and remained stable over the long run despite the restrictions on the volumes of refined petroleum products introduced. This can be explained by evidence that North Korea has introduced refined oil supplies that are not much different from those before the sanctions through its use of illegal transshipments even after the sanctions. With regard to strategic materials such as refined oil, the North Korean authorities are believed to be desperately avoiding sanctions by, for instance, finding loopholes in the sanctions to meet the minimum level of demand.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.167-198
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper aims to compare and analyze the co-movements and information spillover effects between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets during the COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crises. Design/methodology - The DCC-GARCH model is used in the co-movements analysis. In contrast, the BEKK-GARCH model is used to evaluate information spillover effects. The statistical data used is from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2022. It comprises the Korea Composite Stock Price Index data and daily international commodity futures prices of natural gas, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, gold, silver, copper, nickel, soybean, and wheat. Findings - The results of the co-movement analysis were as follows: First, it was shown that the co-movements between the international commodity futures markets and the South Korean stock markets were temporarily strengthened when the COVID-19 and 2008 financial crises occurred. Second, the South Korean stock markets were shown to have high correlations with the copper, nickel, and crude oil futures markets. The results of the information spillover effects analysis are as follows: First, before the 2008 financial crisis, four commodity futures markets (natural gas, gold, copper, and wheat) were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets. In contrast, seven commodity futures markets, except for the natural gas futures market, were shown to be in two-way leading relationships with the South Korean stock markets after the financial crisis. Second, before the COVID-19 crisis, most international commodity futures markets, excluding natural gas and crude oil future markets, were shown to have led the South Korean stock markets in one direction. Third, it was revealed that after the COVID-19 crisis, the connections between the South Korean stock markets and the international commodity futures markets, except for natural gas, crude oil, and gold, were completely severed. Originality/value - Useful information for portfolio strategy establishment can be provided to investors through the results of this study. In addition, it is judged that financial policy authorities can utilize the results as data for efficient regulation of the financial market and policy establishment.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.81-83
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• 2006

Nowadays the concern about development and diffusion strategies of new & renewable energy and its technologies is getting higher globally as Kyoto Protocol has taken effect this year and oil has been rising in price tremendously. Developed countries have already commenced the study and research for this problem and are looking for various solutions. In this paper, international situation of new & renewable energy is analyzed and estimated researching statistics and policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.201-208
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• 2020

Terms of trade is an important indicator of the welfare gains from international trade to the exporting country. Terms of trade of oil-exporting countries are hypothesized to depend primarily on oil prices. The study assesses the relation between oil prices and the terms of trade of Saudi Arabia. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to determine the cointegration between the country's terms of trade and oil prices for the period 2000-2018. The data for net barter terms of trade is taken from World Development Indicators and oil price is taken from Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency. The results show that oil prices and terms of trade are cointegrated and any disequilibrium between the two variables is corrected by 35% in a year. The study also reports a positive relationship between the two items, both in the short run and long run. Diagnostic tests indicate the model to be fit. The results suggest that, for a primarily oil-producing country like Saudi Arabia, the terms of trade depend on oil prices. The study fills the gap in the literature on the study of terms of trade for Saudi Arabia for the last few years, where there has been a high volatility in oil prices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2021

In the international markets, financial variables can be volatile and may affect each other, especially in the crisis times. COVID-19, which began in China in 2019 and spread to many countries of the world, created a crisis not only in the global health system but also in the international financial markets and economy. The purpose of this study is to analyze the contagious effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility of selected financial variables such as Bitcoin, gold, oil price, and exchange rates and the connections between the volatilities of these variables during the pandemic. For this aim, we use the ARMA-EGARCH model to measure the impact of volatility and shocks. In other words, it is aimed to measure whether the impact of the shock on the financial variables of the contagiousness of the epidemic is also transmitted to the markets. The data was collected from secondary and daily data from September 2th 2019 to December 20th, 2020. It can be said that the findings obtained have statistically significant effects on the conditional variability of the variables. Therefore, there are findings that the shocks in the market are contaminated with each other.

• 한국중재학회지:중재연구
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.45-58
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• 2014

It is a well recognised rule in international law that the property of aliens cannot be taken. The question of whether indirect expropriation and government regulatory measures require compensation is an important issue in international investment law. Bilateral investment treaties and other investment agreements contain brief and general indirect expropriation provisions. These focus on the effect of government action and do not address the distinction between compensable and non-compensable regulatory actions. It is generally accepted that a state is not responsible for loss of property or for other economic disadvantages resulting from bona fide general taxation accepted as within the police power of states, provided it is not discriminatory. Yukos Oil Company is a Russian oil and gas company engaged in exploration, refining, and marketing activities. It is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world. Yukos Oil Company has its production operations in Russia and markets its products in Europe. An international tribunal ordered the Russian government to compensate a group of Spanish investors for the losses they suffered when Russia seized the Yukos Oil Company on July 26, 2012. This has been the subject of several judicial proceedings and academic publications. This paper explores which circumstances do not lead to taxation amounting to expropriation. The author suggests that under the following circumstances, taxation would not amount to expropriation. First, taxation should be non-discriminatory. Also a lawful exercise of the taxation powers of governments would not amount to expropriation.