• Title/Summary/Keyword: Interest rate risk

Search Result 153, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

An estimation of implied volatility for KOSPI200 option (KOSPI200 옵션의 내재변동성 추정)

  • Choi, Jieun;Lee, Jang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.513-522
    • /
    • 2014
  • Using the assumption that the price of a stock follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility, Black and Scholes (BS) derived a formula that gives the price of a European call option on the stock as a function of the stock price, the strike price, the time to maturity, the risk-free interest rate, the dividend rate paid by the stock, and the volatility of the stock's return. However, implied volatilities of BS method tend to depend on the stock prices and the time to maturity in practice. To address this shortcoming, we estimate the implied volatility function as a function of the strike priceand the time to maturity for data consisting of the daily prices for KOSPI200 call options from January 2007 to May 2009 using support vector regression (SVR), the multiple additive regression trees (MART) algorithm, and ordinary least squaress (OLS) regression. In conclusion, use of MART or SVR in the BS pricing model reduced both RMSE and MAE, compared to the OLS-based BS pricing model.

Factors Influencing Suicidal ideation among Korean University Students

  • Kim, Inhong;Park, Younghee
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.151-160
    • /
    • 2019
  • Korea has the highest suicide rate among the OECD countries, and the suicide rate is highest among young adults in their 20s, most of whom are university students. Therefore, suicide among Korean university students is a public health issue that is of interest to us. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the suicidal ideation of university students in Korea, and to use them as a basis to establish effective intervention for university suicide prevention through it. This was a cross-sectional descriptive study using convenience sampling method. The participants were 344 university students at universities in S and G cities. Data were collected with a structured questionnaire and analyzed using descriptive analysis, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficients, and hierarchical regression analysis using with the SPSS/Win 23.0 program. There was a significant correlation between depression (r=.45, p<.001), drinking alcohol (r=.14, p=.008), social support (r=-.26, p<.001), quality of life (r=-.46, p<.001), and suicidal ideation. In the first step of hierarchical regression analysis, satisfaction of school life (${\beta}=.198$, p<.001) was the significant factor influencing the suicidal ideation. Explanatory power was 25.2%. In the second step of the hierarchical regression analysis, absence of parents (${\beta}=-.095$, p=.044), depression (${\beta}=.247$, p<.001), quality of life (${\beta}=-.280$, p<.001), and explanatory power were increased to 42.0%. The results of the study indicate the need to actively identify the group of university students in their 20s with high risk of suicide through continuous evaluation of depression, and to improve the quality of life as a method of preventing suicide. In addition, the effect of absence of parents on the suicidal ideation among Korean university students suggests that parental support may play an important role in suicide prevention.

A Study on the Analysis of Optimal Asset Allocation and Welfare Improvemant Factors through ESG Investment (ESG투자를 통한 최적자산배분과 후생개선 요인분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hyun, Sangkyun;Lee, Jeongseok;Rhee, Joon-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
    • /
    • v.51 no.2
    • /
    • pp.171-184
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: First, this paper suggests an alternative approach to find optimal portfolio (stocks, bonds and ESG stocks) under the maximizing utility of investors. Second, we include ESG stocks in our optimal portfolio, and compare improvement of welfares in the case with and without ESG stocks in portfolio. Methods: Our main method of analysis follows Brennan et al(2002), designed under the continuous time framework. We assume that the dynamics of stock price follow the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) while the short rate have the Vasicek model. For the utility function of investors, we use the Power Utility Function, which commonly used in financial studies. The optimal portfolio and welfares are derived in the partial equilibrium. The parameters are estimated by using Kalman filter and ordinary least square method. Results: During the overall analysis period, the portfolio including ESG, did not show clear welfare improvement. In 2017, it has slightly exceeded this benchmark 1, showing the possibility of improvement, but the ESG stocks we selected have not strongly shown statistically significant welfare improvement results. This paper showed that the factors affecting optimal asset allocation and welfare improvement were different each other. We also found that the proportion of optimal asset allocation was affected by factors such as asset return, volatility, and inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, similar to traditional financial theory. Conclusion: The portfolio with ESG investment did not show significant results in welfare improvement is due to that 1) the KRX ESG Leaders 150 selected in our study is an index based on ESG integrated scores, which are designed to affect stability rather than profitability. And 2) Korea has a short history of ESG investment. During the limited analysis period, the performance of stock-related assets was inferior to bond assets at the time of the interest rate drop.

Development and Efficiency Evaluation of Auxiliary Shielding using Elbow Support (팔꿈치 지지대를 사용한 보조 차폐 기구의 개발 및 효용성 평가)

  • Hyun-Woo Im;Jae-Suk Kim;Dong-Gu Kang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
    • /
    • v.18 no.1
    • /
    • pp.11-20
    • /
    • 2024
  • As the importance of intervention has recently increased, interest in the health of medical staff performing the procedure is increasing. Existing radiation shielding devices have limited the operator's movement and have not been properly used due to the risk of infection, and adequate radiation shielding of the operator's gonads and furthermore, the entire area of the procedure room has not been achieved. An auxiliary shielding device was manufactured by attaching a Bismuth to the elbow support used in the procedure, and the radiation shielding effect was measured. As a result of the measurement, the average spatial dose rate decreased by about 64.8%, and the independent sample t-test analysis showed statistically significant below the significance probability (p<0.05). The use of an auxiliary shielding device is considered to be an effective shielding method that can shield the operator's gonads and reduce the radiation spatial dose rate of the entire area of the procedure room.

Evaluation of Vasodilative Effects on 10 Traditional Herbal Formulas for Treatment of Hypertension (고혈압 치료를 위한 상용하는 한약 처방 10종의 혈관이완 평가)

  • Bumjung Kim
    • The Korea Journal of Herbology
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.69-76
    • /
    • 2024
  • Objectives : Hypertension (high blood pressure), one of the world's major chronic diseases, has a high mortality rate due to its high prevalence and complications, but its control rate is low. The proper management and control through appropriate exercise, diet management, and optimal drug choice can reduce the risk of death from hypertension. Although various antihypertensive drugs are used to treat hypertension, they also have numerous adverse effects. Alongside increased interest in the use of Traditional Herbal Formulas (THF) for hypertension treatment, the purpose of this study was to examine the vasodilative effects of 10 THF in the rat thoracic artery pre-contracted by potassiumchloride (KCl). Methods : THF were extracted with distilled water for 2 hours. The rat thoracic artery was suspended and contracted by KCl in the organ bath which contained 10 ml Krebs Henseleit (KH) buffer. THF extracts were added in a dose-dependent increase (10-1,000 ㎍/mL) to examine vasodilative effects. The vasodilative effects produced by THF were expressed as the percentage in response to KCl-induced contraction. Results : Among the 10 THF, Banhasasim-tang, Buhnsimgieum, Sagunja-tang, and Samul-tang showed vasodilative effects. And, Sipjeondaebo-tang, Ssanghwa-tang, Ojeok-san, Onkyung-tang, Yongdamsagan-tang, and Hyangsayukgunja-tang showed no significant vasodilative effects. Also, in co-administration with amlodipine, Banhasasim-tang showed higher vasodilative effects than amlodipine alone, and Buhnsimgieum showed greater vasodilative effects at low concentrations, but inhibited amlodipine's vasodilative effects at high concentrations. Conclusion : As a result of these studies, they will be expected to provide useful data to establish guidelines of combined administration of THF and western antihypertensive drugs for the treatment of hypertension.

Study on Economic and Financial Education for the North Koreans after Unification: from the Perspective of Behavioral Economics (통일 후 북한 주민 대상 경제금융 교육에 관한 연구: 행태경제학 관점을 중심으로)

  • Son, Jeong-Kook;Kim, Young-Min
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.7 no.2
    • /
    • pp.239-246
    • /
    • 2021
  • Unification means the change of the economic system from 'Planned Economy' of the North Korea to 'Market Economy' of the South Korea. Therefore, it may cause confusions and difficulties for North Koreans who have been under planned economy for ages. So, we need to take the perspective of behavioral economics for the effective education. First of all, it is about overall finance, which contains the record of financial transactions, effect of inflation, investors' bounded rationality, and choice difficulty of financial products. Second, it is about borrowings, which includes the credit management, interest rate of difference among financial institutions. Third, it is about investment on financial products, which includes the effect of cost on returns, difference between compound interest and simple interest, trade-off between expected return and risk, market and non-market risks, the importance of diversification, and passive & aggressive investments.

A Framework to Determine the Loan Rate of the Government Loan Program based on Rationales of the Government Loan Program (고객만족수준과 고객만족을 위한 지출 및 재무적 성과의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Im, Sin-Suk;Lee, Ho-Gap
    • 한국벤처창업학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2007.11a
    • /
    • pp.327-352
    • /
    • 2007
  • The loan rate of the government loan program offered by the Small Business Corporation(SBC) can be determined as a sum of three factors such as a reference interest rate, a policy aim spread, and a credit risk spread. However the loan rate has been lower than the loan rate in the banking sector. The profit has continually run in the red figures and hence the stability the fund managed by the SBC has been damaged. Even though a policy aim spread could be emphasized, the stability and profitability of the fund should be prioritized. This means that the loan rate of the SBC should be determined such that the loss might not be occurred. This requires the policy aim spread to change from relatively large negative to near zero.

  • PDF

A Case Study: Improvement of Wind Risk Prediction by Reclassifying the Detection Results (풍해 예측 결과 재분류를 통한 위험 감지확률의 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Hwang, Kyu-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.149-155
    • /
    • 2021
  • Early warning systems for weather risk management in the agricultural sector have been developed to predict potential wind damage to crops. These systems take into account the daily maximum wind speed to determine the critical wind speed that causes fruit drops and provide the weather risk information to farmers. In an effort to increase the accuracy of wind risk predictions, an artificial neural network for binary classification was implemented. In the present study, the daily wind speed and other weather data, which were measured at weather stations at sites of interest in Jeollabuk-do and Jeollanam-do as well as Gyeongsangbuk- do and part of Gyeongsangnam- do provinces in 2019, were used for training the neural network. These weather stations include 210 synoptic and automated weather stations operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). The wind speed data collected at the same locations between January 1 and December 12, 2020 were used to validate the neural network model. The data collected from December 13, 2020 to February 18, 2021 were used to evaluate the wind risk prediction performance before and after the use of the artificial neural network. The critical wind speed of damage risk was determined to be 11 m/s, which is the wind speed reported to cause fruit drops and damages. Furthermore, the maximum wind speeds were expressed using Weibull distribution probability density function for warning of wind damage. It was found that the accuracy of wind damage risk prediction was improved from 65.36% to 93.62% after re-classification using the artificial neural network. Nevertheless, the error rate also increased from 13.46% to 37.64%, as well. It is likely that the machine learning approach used in the present study would benefit case studies where no prediction by risk warning systems becomes a relatively serious issue.

Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19 (COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용)

  • Ki, Han Jeong;Kim, Jieun;Kim, Sohee;Park, Juwon;Lee, Joohaeng;Kim, Yang-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.777-789
    • /
    • 2020
  • COVID-19 has been rapidly spread world wide since late December 2019. In this paper, our interest is to estimate distribution of incubation time defined as period between infection of virus and the onset. Due to the limit of accessibility and asymptomatic feature of COVID-19 virus, the exact infection and onset time are not always observable. For estimation of incubation time, interval censoring technique is implemented. Furthermore, a competing risk model is applied to estimate the case fatality and cure fraction. Based on the result, the mean incubation time is about 5.4 days and the fatality rate is higher for older and male patient and the cure rate is higher at younger,female and asymptomatic patient.

Study on Entering Self-Employment of Young Workers (청년층의 자영업 진입에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jaeyoul;Kim, Jongsung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.247-257
    • /
    • 2020
  • In recent years, the proportion of youth's self-employed is steadily increasing, and government policy also actively encourages youth to become an entrepreneur. However, most of the domestic precedent studies on the self-employed labor market focus on the middle-aged and the elderly, and previous studies on the self-employed labor market of young people are hardly ever studied. Above all, the study that examines the factors of entry into self-employment of young people is not sufficient and researchers usually utilize the study about for all ages to explain the self-employment market of young people. However, because the young and middle-aged people differ in labor market conditions, family backgrounds, and the level of accumulation of human capital, separate explanations and theories are needed. Therefore, this study explored the factors of entry into self-employment by separating the age group from 15~29 years old. The data used in the analysis was the 9th to 20th data of the Korea Labor Panel Survey. The youth unemployment rate and employment rate were referred to the Economically Active Population Survey of Statistics Korea. The analysis subject was limited to young people who are currently performing economic activities, and the analysis method used multi-level logit model. The main results are summarized as follows. First, the lower the unemployment rate and the higher the employment rate, the younger people tend to enter their own businesses on the structural level. Second on the individual level, young people who possess enough financial capital or pursuit personal aptitude or interest tend to enter self-employment. However, there are no statistical effects of human capital and entrepreneur capital.