• Title/Summary/Keyword: Integrated Information System

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

CQI Action Team Approach to Prevent Pressure Sores in Intensive Care Unit of an Acute Hospital Korea (중환자의 욕창 예방 연구 : 욕창 예방 QI팀을 중심으로)

  • Kang, So Young;Choi, Eun-Kyung;Kim, Jin-Ju;Ju, Mi-Jung
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.50-63
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    • 1997
  • Background : A pressure sore was defined as any skin lesion caused by unrelieved pressure and resulting in damage to underlying tissue. The health care institutions in the United States were reported the incident rate of pressure sores ranging from 6 to 14 %. Intensive Care Unit needed highest quality of care has been found over 40% incidence rate of pressure sore. Also, Annual expenditures for the care of pressure sores in patients in the United States have been estimated to be $7.5 billion; furthermore, 50 percent more nursing time is required to care for patients with pressure sore in comparison to the time needed to implement preventive measures against pressure sore formation. However, In Korea, there were little reliable reports, or researches, about incidence rates of pressure sore in health care institution including intensive care unit and about the integrated approach like CQI action team for risk assessment, prevention and treatment of pressure ulcers. Therefore, this study was to develop pressure sore risk assessment tool and the protocol for prevention of pressure sore formation through CQI action team activities, to monitor incident rate of pressure sore and the length of sore formation for patients at high risk, and to approximately estimate nursing time for sore dressing during research period as the effect of CQI action team. Method : CQI action team in intensive care unit, launched since early 1996, reviewed the literature for the standardized risk assessment tool, developed the pressure sore assessment tool based on the Braden Scale, tested its validity, compared on statistics including incidence rate of pressure sore for patients at high risk. Throughout these activities, CQI action team was developed the protocol, called as St. Marys hospital Intensive Care Unit Pressure Sore Protocol, shifted the emphasis from wound treatment to wound prevention. After applied the protocol to patients at high risk, the incident rate and the period of prevention against pressure development were tested with those for patients who received care before implementation of protocol by Chi-square and Kaplan-Meier Method of Survival Analysis. Result : The CQI action team found that these was significant difference of in incidence rate of pressure sores between patients at high risk (control group) who received care before implementation of protocol and those (experimental group) who received it after implementation of protocol (p<.05). 25% possibility of pressure sore formation was shown for the patients with 6th hospital day in ICU in control group. In experimental group, the patients with 10th hospital day had 10% possibility of pressure sore. Therefore, there was significant difference(p<.05) in survival rate between two groups. Also, nursing time for dressing on pressure sore in experimental group was decreased as much as 50% of it in control group. Conclusion : The collaborative team effort led to reduced incidence, increased the length of prevention against pressure sore, and declined nursing care times for sore dressing. However, there have had several suggestions for future study. The preventive care system for pressure sore should be applied to patients at moderate, or low risk throughout continuous CQI team activities based on Bed Sore Indicator Fact Sheet. Hospital-wide supports, such as incentives, would be offered to participants for keeping strong commitment to CQI team. Also, Quality Information System monitoring incidents and estimating cost of poor quality, like workload (full time equivalence) or financial loss, regularly in a hospital has to be developed first for supporting CQI team activities as well as empowering hospital-wide QI implementation. Being several limitations, this study would be one of the report cards for the CQI team activities in intensive care unit of an acute hospital and a trial of quality improvement of health care in Korea.

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Comparative Analysis of Anti-Terrorism Act and its Enforcement Ordinance for Counter-Terrorism Activities (대테러 활동을 위한 테러 방지법과 시행령의 비교 분석)

  • Yoon, Hae-Sung
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.48
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    • pp.259-285
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    • 2016
  • As the need for anti-terrorism legislation has been continuously argued, Anti-terrorism act has been enacted and enforced. On the other hand, there still remain a lot of points to be discussed regarding the definition of the concept of terrorism, matters of human rights violations, strengthening authority of the investigation and intelligence agencies, and mobilization military forces for the suppression of terrorism. Also, reviewing Anti-terrorism act and its enforcement ordinance draft, this legislation seems to regulate terrorist groups like IS. If so, in the case of terrorism of North Korea or domestic anti-government organizations, whether this law would be applied could become an issue. In the case of terrorism of North Korea, Ministry of National Defense has a right of commandership in the military operations, however, it is also possible to apply the article 4 of Natural Security Act a crime of performing objective-or a crime of foreign exchange on Criminal law as legal grounds for not military terrorisms but general investigations. Therefore, it is necessary to involve consideration about this matter. Furthermore, in the view of investigation, Anti-terrorism act and its enforcement ordinance draft do not mention Supreme Prosecutors Office and Ministry of Justice that conduct investigations. In the case of terrorism, the police and prosecution should conduct to arrest criminals and determine crimes at the investigation stage, however, any explicit article related to this content in Anti-terrorism act and its enforcement ordinance draft was unable to be found. Although Anti-terrorism act is certainly toward preventive aspects, considering some matters such as prevention, actions on the scene, maneuver after terrorism, arresting terrorists, investigation direction, cooperation, and mutual assistance, it is necessary to reflect these contents in Anti-terrorism act. In other words, immediately after terrorists attacks, it is possible to mobilize the military operations by Integrated Defense act in order to arrest them in the case of military terrorism. Nevertheless, because both military terrorism and general one are included in the investigation stage, it needs to begin an investigation under the direction of the prosecution. Therefore, above all, a device for finding out the truth behind the case at the investigation stage is not reflected in the current Anti-terrorism act and its enforcement ordinance draft. Accordingly, if National Intelligence Service approaches information at the prevention level in this situation, it may be necessary to come up with follow-up measures of the police, the prosecution, and military units.

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Independent Verification Program for High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Treatment Plans (고선량률 근접치료계획의 정도보증 프로그램)

  • Han Youngyih;Chu Sung Sil;Huh Seung Jae;Suh Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.238-244
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The Planning of High-Dose-Rate (HDR) brachytherapy treatments are becoming individualized and more dependent on the treatment planning system. Therefore, computer software has been developed to perform independent point dose calculations with the integration of an isodose distribution curve display into the patient anatomy images. Meterials and Methods: As primary input data, the program takes patients'planning data including the source dwell positions, dwell times and the doses at reference points, computed by an HDR treatment planning system (TPS). Dosimetric calculations were peformed in a $10\times12\times10\;Cm^3$ grid space using the Interstitial Collaborative Working Group (ICWG) formalism and an anisotropy table for the HDR Iridium-192 source. The computed doses at the reference points were automatically compared with the relevant results of the TPS. The MR and simulation film images were then imported and the isodose distributions on the axial, sagittal and coronal planes intersecting the point selected by a user were superimposed on the imported images and then displayed. The accuracy of the software was tested in three benchmark plans peformed by Gamma-Med 12i TPS (MDS Nordion, Germany). Nine patients'plans generated by Plato (Nucletron Corporation, The Netherlands) were verified by the developed software. Results: The absolute doses computed by the developed software agreed with the commercial TPS results within an accuracy of $2.8\%$ in the benchmark plans. The isodose distribution plots showed excellent agreements with the exception of the tip legion of the source's longitudinal axis where a slight deviation was observed. In clinical plans, the secondary dose calculations had, on average, about a $3.4\%$ deviation from the TPS plans. Conclusion: The accurate validation of complicate treatment plans is possible with the developed software and the qualify of the HDR treatment plan can be improved with the isodose display integrated into the patient anatomy information.

Sensitivity Analysis of Meteorology-based Wildfire Risk Indices and Satellite-based Surface Dryness Indices against Wildfire Cases in South Korea (기상기반 산불위험지수와 위성기반 지면건조지수의 우리나라 산불발생에 대한 민감도분석)

  • Kong, Inhak;Kim, Kwangjin;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2017
  • There are many wildfire risk indices worldwide, but objective comparisons between such various wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices have not been conducted for the wildfire cases in Korea. This paper describes a sensitivity analysis on the wildfire risk indices and surface dryness indices for Korea using LDAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System) meteorological dataset on a 1.5-km grid and MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite images on a 1-km grid. We analyzed the meteorology-based wildfire risk indices such as the Australian FFDI(forest fire danger index), the Canadian FFMC(fine fuel moisture code), the American HI(Haines index), and the academically presented MNI(modified Nesterov index). Also we examined the satellite-based surface dryness indices such as NDDI(normalized difference drought index) and TVDI(temperature vegetation dryness index). As a result of the comparisons between the six indices regarding 120 wildfire cases with the area damaged over 1ha during the period between January 2013 and May 2017, we found that the FFDI and FFMC showed a good predictability for most wildfire cases but the MNI and TVDI were not suitable for Korea. The NDDI can be used as a proxy parameter for wildfire risk because its average CDF(cumulative distribution function) scores were stably high irrespective of fire size. The indices tested in this paper should be carefully chosen and used in an integrated way so that they can contribute to wildfire forecasting in Korea.

The development of resources for the application of 2020 Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (2020 한국인 영양소 섭취기준 활용 자료 개발)

  • Hwang, Ji-Yun;Kim, Yangha;Lee, Haeng Shin;Park, EunJu;Kim, Jeongseon;Shin, Sangah;Kim, Ki Nam;Bae, Yun Jung;Kim, Kirang;Woo, Taejung;Yoon, Mi Ock;Lee, Myoungsook
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2022
  • The recommended meal composition allows the general people to organize meals using the number of intakes of foods from each of six food groups (grains, meat·fish·eggs·beans, vegetables, fruits, milk·dairy products and oils·sugars) to meet Dietary Reference Intakes for Koreans (KDRIs) without calculating complex nutritional values. Through an integrated analysis of data from the 6th to 7th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2013-2018), representative foods for each food group were selected, and the amounts of representative foods per person were derived based on energy. Based on the EER by age and gender from the KDRIs, a total of 12 kinds of diets were suggested by differentiating meal compositions by age (aged 1-2, 3-5, 6-11, 12-18, 19-64, 65-74 and ≥ 75 years) and gender. The 2020 Food Balance Wheel included the 6th food group of oils and sugars to raise public awareness and avoid confusion in the practical utilization of the model by industries or individuals in reducing the consistent increasing intakes of oils and sugars. To promote the everyday use of the Food Balance Wheel and recommended meal compositions among the general public, the poster of the Food Balance Wheel was created in five languages (Korean, English, Japanese, Vietnamese and Chinese) along with card news. A survey was conducted to provide a basis for categorizing nutritional problems by life cycles and developing customized web-based messages to the public. Based on survey results two types of card news were produced for the general public and youth. Additionally, the educational program was developed through a series of processes, such as prioritization of educational topics, setting educational goals for each stage, creation of a detailed educational system chart and teaching-learning plans for the development of educational materials and media.

A Study on Recent Research Trend in Management of Technology Using Keywords Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 통해 살펴본 기술경영의 최근 연구동향)

  • Kho, Jaechang;Cho, Kuentae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2013
  • Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and technologies, and technological convergence. Therefore, the identification of major trends in technology research and the interdisciplinary knowledge-based prediction of integrated technologies and promising techniques are required for firms to gain and sustain competitive advantage and future growth engines. The aim of this paper is to understand the recent research trend in management of technology (MOT) and to foresee promising technologies with deep knowledge for both technology and business. Furthermore, this study intends to give a clear way to find new technical value for constant innovation and to capture core technology and technology convergence. Bibliometrics is a metrical analysis to understand literature's characteristics. Traditional bibliometrics has its limitation not to understand relationship between trend in technology management and technology itself, since it focuses on quantitative indices such as quotation frequency. To overcome this issue, the network focused bibliometrics has been used instead of traditional one. The network focused bibliometrics mainly uses "Co-citation" and "Co-word" analysis. In this study, a keywords network analysis, one of social network analysis, is performed to analyze recent research trend in MOT. For the analysis, we collected keywords from research papers published in international journals related MOT between 2002 and 2011, constructed a keyword network, and then conducted the keywords network analysis. Over the past 40 years, the studies in social network have attempted to understand the social interactions through the network structure represented by connection patterns. In other words, social network analysis has been used to explain the structures and behaviors of various social formations such as teams, organizations, and industries. In general, the social network analysis uses data as a form of matrix. In our context, the matrix depicts the relations between rows as papers and columns as keywords, where the relations are represented as binary. Even though there are no direct relations between papers who have been published, the relations between papers can be derived artificially as in the paper-keyword matrix, in which each cell has 1 for including or 0 for not including. For example, a keywords network can be configured in a way to connect the papers which have included one or more same keywords. After constructing a keywords network, we analyzed frequency of keywords, structural characteristics of keywords network, preferential attachment and growth of new keywords, component, and centrality. The results of this study are as follows. First, a paper has 4.574 keywords on the average. 90% of keywords were used three or less times for past 10 years and about 75% of keywords appeared only one time. Second, the keyword network in MOT is a small world network and a scale free network in which a small number of keywords have a tendency to become a monopoly. Third, the gap between the rich (with more edges) and the poor (with fewer edges) in the network is getting bigger as time goes on. Fourth, most of newly entering keywords become poor nodes within about 2~3 years. Finally, keywords with high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are "Innovation," "R&D," "Patent," "Forecast," "Technology transfer," "Technology," and "SME". The results of analysis will help researchers identify major trends in MOT research and then seek a new research topic. We hope that the result of the analysis will help researchers of MOT identify major trends in technology research, and utilize as useful reference information when they seek consilience with other fields of study and select a new research topic.

Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags with Semantic Relationship on Social-web to Support Effective Search (효율적 자원 탐색을 위한 소셜 웹 태그들을 이용한 동적 가상 온톨로지 생성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Jung;Sohn, Mye
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2013
  • In this research, a proposed Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags (DyVOT) supports dynamic search of resources depending on user's requirements using tags from social web driven resources. It is general that the tags are defined by annotations of a series of described words by social users who usually tags social information resources such as web-page, images, u-tube, videos, etc. Therefore, tags are characterized and mirrored by information resources. Therefore, it is possible for tags as meta-data to match into some resources. Consequently, we can extract semantic relationships between tags owing to the dependency of relationships between tags as representatives of resources. However, to do this, there is limitation because there are allophonic synonym and homonym among tags that are usually marked by a series of words. Thus, research related to folksonomies using tags have been applied to classification of words by semantic-based allophonic synonym. In addition, some research are focusing on clustering and/or classification of resources by semantic-based relationships among tags. In spite of, there also is limitation of these research because these are focusing on semantic-based hyper/hypo relationships or clustering among tags without consideration of conceptual associative relationships between classified or clustered groups. It makes difficulty to effective searching resources depending on user requirements. In this research, the proposed DyVOT uses tags and constructs ontologyfor effective search. We assumed that tags are extracted from user requirements, which are used to construct multi sub-ontology as combinations of tags that are composed of a part of the tags or all. In addition, the proposed DyVOT constructs ontology which is based on hierarchical and associative relationships among tags for effective search of a solution. The ontology is composed of static- and dynamic-ontology. The static-ontology defines semantic-based hierarchical hyper/hypo relationships among tags as in (http://semanticcloud.sandra-siegel.de/) with a tree structure. From the static-ontology, the DyVOT extracts multi sub-ontology using multi sub-tag which are constructed by parts of tags. Finally, sub-ontology are constructed by hierarchy paths which contain the sub-tag. To create dynamic-ontology by the proposed DyVOT, it is necessary to define associative relationships among multi sub-ontology that are extracted from hierarchical relationships of static-ontology. The associative relationship is defined by shared resources between tags which are linked by multi sub-ontology. The association is measured by the degree of shared resources that are allocated into the tags of sub-ontology. If the value of association is larger than threshold value, then associative relationship among tags is newly created. The associative relationships are used to merge and construct new hierarchy the multi sub-ontology. To construct dynamic-ontology, it is essential to defined new class which is linked by two more sub-ontology, which is generated by merged tags which are highly associative by proving using shared resources. Thereby, the class is applied to generate new hierarchy with extracted multi sub-ontology to create a dynamic-ontology. The new class is settle down on the ontology. So, the newly created class needs to be belong to the dynamic-ontology. So, the class used to new hyper/hypo hierarchy relationship between the class and tags which are linked to multi sub-ontology. At last, DyVOT is developed by newly defined associative relationships which are extracted from hierarchical relationships among tags. Resources are matched into the DyVOT which narrows down search boundary and shrinks the search paths. Finally, we can create the DyVOT using the newly defined associative relationships. While static data catalog (Dean and Ghemawat, 2004; 2008) statically searches resources depending on user requirements, the proposed DyVOT dynamically searches resources using multi sub-ontology by parallel processing. In this light, the DyVOT supports improvement of correctness and agility of search and decreasing of search effort by reduction of search path.

Interpreting Bounded Rationality in Business and Industrial Marketing Contexts: Executive Training Case Studies (집행관배훈안례연구(阐述工商业背景下的有限合理性):집행관배훈안례연구(执行官培训案例研究))

  • Woodside, Arch G.;Lai, Wen-Hsiang;Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Jung, Deuk-Keyo
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.49-61
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    • 2009
  • This article provides training exercises for executives into interpreting subroutine maps of executives' thinking in processing business and industrial marketing problems and opportunities. This study builds on premises that Schank proposes about learning and teaching including (1) learning occurs by experiencing and the best instruction offers learners opportunities to distill their knowledge and skills from interactive stories in the form of goal.based scenarios, team projects, and understanding stories from experts. Also, (2) telling does not lead to learning because learning requires action-training environments should emphasize active engagement with stories, cases, and projects. Each training case study includes executive exposure to decision system analysis (DSA). The training case requires the executive to write a "Briefing Report" of a DSA map. Instructions to the executive trainee in writing the briefing report include coverage in the briefing report of (1) details of the essence of the DSA map and (2) a statement of warnings and opportunities that the executive map reader interprets within the DSA map. The length maximum for a briefing report is 500 words-an arbitrary rule that works well in executive training programs. Following this introduction, section two of the article briefly summarizes relevant literature on how humans think within contexts in response to problems and opportunities. Section three illustrates the creation and interpreting of DSA maps using a training exercise in pricing a chemical product to different OEM (original equipment manufacturer) customers. Section four presents a training exercise in pricing decisions by a petroleum manufacturing firm. Section five presents a training exercise in marketing strategies by an office furniture distributer along with buying strategies by business customers. Each of the three training exercises is based on research into information processing and decision making of executives operating in marketing contexts. Section six concludes the article with suggestions for use of this training case and for developing additional training cases for honing executives' decision-making skills. Todd and Gigerenzer propose that humans use simple heuristics because they enable adaptive behavior by exploiting the structure of information in natural decision environments. "Simplicity is a virtue, rather than a curse". Bounded rationality theorists emphasize the centrality of Simon's proposition, "Human rational behavior is shaped by a scissors whose blades are the structure of the task environments and the computational capabilities of the actor". Gigerenzer's view is relevant to Simon's environmental blade and to the environmental structures in the three cases in this article, "The term environment, here, does not refer to a description of the total physical and biological environment, but only to that part important to an organism, given its needs and goals." The present article directs attention to research that combines reports on the structure of task environments with the use of adaptive toolbox heuristics of actors. The DSA mapping approach here concerns the match between strategy and an environment-the development and understanding of ecological rationality theory. Aspiration adaptation theory is central to this approach. Aspiration adaptation theory models decision making as a multi-goal problem without aggregation of the goals into a complete preference order over all decision alternatives. The three case studies in this article permit the learner to apply propositions in aspiration level rules in reaching a decision. Aspiration adaptation takes the form of a sequence of adjustment steps. An adjustment step shifts the current aspiration level to a neighboring point on an aspiration grid by a change in only one goal variable. An upward adjustment step is an increase and a downward adjustment step is a decrease of a goal variable. Creating and using aspiration adaptation levels is integral to bounded rationality theory. The present article increases understanding and expertise of both aspiration adaptation and bounded rationality theories by providing learner experiences and practice in using propositions in both theories. Practice in ranking CTSs and writing TOP gists from DSA maps serves to clarify and deepen Selten's view, "Clearly, aspiration adaptation must enter the picture as an integrated part of the search for a solution." The body of "direct research" by Mintzberg, Gladwin's ethnographic decision tree modeling, and Huff's work on mapping strategic thought are suggestions on where to look for research that considers both the structure of the environment and the computational capabilities of the actors making decisions in these environments. Such research on bounded rationality permits both further development of theory in how and why decisions are made in real life and the development of learning exercises in the use of heuristics occurring in natural environments. The exercises in the present article encourage learning skills and principles of using fast and frugal heuristics in contexts of their intended use. The exercises respond to Schank's wisdom, "In a deep sense, education isn't about knowledge or getting students to know what has happened. It is about getting them to feel what has happened. This is not easy to do. Education, as it is in schools today, is emotionless. This is a huge problem." The three cases and accompanying set of exercise questions adhere to Schank's view, "Processes are best taught by actually engaging in them, which can often mean, for mental processing, active discussion."

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Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.