• Title/Summary/Keyword: Initial Estimation

Search Result 1,046, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Laplacian Autoregressive Time Series Model

  • Son, Young-Sook;Cho, Sin-Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.359-368
    • /
    • 1996
  • The maximum likelihood estimation is discussed for the NLAR model with Laplacian marginals. Since the explicit form of the estimates cannot be obtained due to the complicated nature of the likelihood function we utilize the automatic computer optimization subroutine using a direct search complex algorithm. The conditional least square estimates are used as initial estimates in maximum likelihood procedures. The results of a simulation study for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NLAR(1) and the NLAR(2) models are presented.

  • PDF

Economic Estimation of Heat Storage Type Geothermal source Heat Pump System Adopted in Government office Building by a Payback Period Method (투자비회수기간법을 이용한 공공청사 적용 축열식 지열히트펌프 시스템의 경제성 평가)

  • Ko, Myung-Jin;Oh, Jung-Keun;Kim, Yong-In;Kim, Yong-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 2007
  • Geothermal-energy has been getting popular as a natural energy source for green buildings these days. As a result Geothermal Source Heat Pump System (GSHPs) was being recognized effective alternative systems to conventional heating and cooling systems owing to their higher energy utilization efficiency. But GSHPs has not been popularized thereby the large amount of initial cost of the system and insufficiency of studies for economic estimation. Therefore GSHPs are being developed to make up for the weak points that are the large amount of initial cost of the system and much annual electricity consumption. In this paper, economic estimation was conducted by payback period method and it shows that the pay back period of Heat Storage Type GSHPs was calculated 6.8 years compared with the absorption Chiller-Heater system and 8.2 years compared with the Ice storage-Boiler system. Heat Storage Type GSHPs also has the lower annual source energy consumption than the conventional heating and cooling systems because of using nighttime electricity.

Parameter Estimation of Runoff Model Using the Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 유출모형의 매개변수 추정)

  • 조현경;이영화
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.12 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1109-1116
    • /
    • 2003
  • The genetic algorithm is investigated fer parameters estimation of SED (storage - effective drainage) model from the Wi-stream watershed in Nakdong river basin. In the practical application of model, as a number of watershed parameters do not measure directly, it is desirable to make a good estimation from the known rainfall and runoff data. For the estimation of parameters of the SED model using the genetic algorithm, parameters of Green-Ampt equation(SM, K$\_$s/) for the estimation of an effective rainfall and initial storage(y$\_$in/) used in SED model are obtained a regression equation with 5, 10, 20 days antecedent precipitation. And as a consequence of computation, the parameters were obtained to satisfy the proposed objective function. From the comparison of observed and computed hydrographs, it shows a good agreement in the shape and the rising limb, peak, falling limb of hydrograph, so the SED model using the genetic algorithm shows a suitable model for runoff analysis in river basin.

Experimental Study of Spacecraft Pose Estimation Algorithm Using Vision-based Sensor

  • Hyun, Jeonghoon;Eun, Youngho;Park, Sang-Young
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.35 no.4
    • /
    • pp.263-277
    • /
    • 2018
  • This paper presents a vision-based relative pose estimation algorithm and its validation through both numerical and hardware experiments. The algorithm and the hardware system were simultaneously designed considering actual experimental conditions. Two estimation techniques were utilized to estimate relative pose; one was a nonlinear least square method for initial estimation, and the other was an extended Kalman Filter for subsequent on-line estimation. A measurement model of the vision sensor and equations of motion including nonlinear perturbations were utilized in the estimation process. Numerical simulations were performed and analyzed for both the autonomous docking and formation flying scenarios. A configuration of LED-based beacons was designed to avoid measurement singularity, and its structural information was implemented in the estimation algorithm. The proposed algorithm was verified again in the experimental environment by using the Autonomous Spacecraft Test Environment for Rendezvous In proXimity (ASTERIX) facility. Additionally, a laser distance meter was added to the estimation algorithm to improve the relative position estimation accuracy. Throughout this study, the performance required for autonomous docking could be presented by confirming the change in estimation accuracy with respect to the level of measurement error. In addition, hardware experiments confirmed the effectiveness of the suggested algorithm and its applicability to actual tasks in the real world.

Outdoor Positioning Estimation of Multi-GPS / INS Integrated System by EKF / UPF Filter Conversion (EKF/UPF필터 변환을 통한 Multi-GPS/INS 융합 시스템의 실외 위치추정)

  • Choi, Seung-Hwan;Kim, Gi-Jeung;Kim, Yun-Ki;Lee, Jang-Myung
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1284-1289
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this Paper, outdoor position estimation system was implemented using GPS (Global Positioning System) and INS (Inertial Navigation System). GPS position information has lots of errors by interference from obstacles and weather, the surrounding environment. To reduce these errors, multiple GPS system is used. Also, the Discrete Wavelet Transforms was applied to INS data for compensation of its error. In this paper, position estimation of the mobile robot in the straight line is conducted by EKF (Extended Kalman Filter). However, curve running position estimation is less accurate than straight line due to phase change in rotation. The curve is recognized through the rate of change in heading angle and the position estimation precision of the initial curve was improved by UPF (Unscented Particle Filter). In the case of UPF, if the number of particle is so many that big memory gets size is needed and processing speed becomes late. So, it only used the position estimation in the initial curve. Thereafter, the position of mobile robot in curve is estimated through switching from UPF to EKF again. Through the experiments, we verify the superiority of the system and make a conclusion.

Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Li-ion Battery for Energy Storage System Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (마코프체인 몬테카를로 방법을 이용한 에너지 저장 장치용 배터리의 잔존 수명 추정)

  • Kim, Dongjin;Kim, Seok Goo;Choi, Jooho;Song, Hwa Seob;Park, Sang Hui;Lee, Jaewook
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
    • /
    • v.40 no.10
    • /
    • pp.895-900
    • /
    • 2016
  • Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of the Li-ion battery has gained great interest because it is necessary for quality assurance, operation planning, and determination of the exchange period. This paper presents the RUL estimation of an Li-ion battery for an energy storage system using exponential function for the degradation model and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for parameter estimation. The MCMC approach is dependent upon information such as model initial parameters and input setting parameters which highly affect the estimation result. To overcome this difficulty, this paper offers a guideline for model initial parameters based on the regression result, and MCMC input parameters derived by comparisons with a thorough search of theoretical results.

A Probabilistic Risk-based Cost Estimation Model for Initial-Stage Decision Making on Apartment Remolding Projects (공동주택 리모델링 초기 단계 의사결정을 위한 확률론적 리스크 기반 비용 예측 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Dong-gun;Cha, Heesung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.70-79
    • /
    • 2016
  • The current remodeling cost estimation process is not only dependent on the historical data of new building construction, but it also has a poor linkage with risk-based estimation approach. As such, there is a high risk of falling short of initial budget. To overcome this, a risk-based estimation approach is necessary by providing a probabilistic estimation in consideration of the potential risk factors in conducting the remodeling projects. In addition, the decision-making process should be linked with the risk-based estimation results in stead of intuitive and/or experience-based estimation. This study provides a probabilistic estimation process for residential remodeling projects by developing a detailed methodology in which a step-by-step approach can be achieved. The new proposed estimation approach can help in decision-making for remodeling projects in terms of whether to proceed or not, by effectively reflecting the potential risk factors in the early stage of the project. In addition, the study can enhance the reliability of the estimation results by developing a sustainable estimation process model where a risk-based evaluation can be accomplished by setting up the cost-risk relationship database structure.

Air-Data Estimation for Air-Breathing Hypersonic Vehicles

  • Kang, Bryan-Heejin
    • Transactions on Control, Automation and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.1 no.1
    • /
    • pp.75-86
    • /
    • 1999
  • An air-data estimator for generic air-breathing hypersonic vehicles (AHSVs) is developed and demonstrated with an example vehicle configuration. The AHSV air-data estimation strategy emphasized improvement of the angle of attack estimate accuracy to a degree necessitated by the stringent operational requirements of the air-breathing propulsion. the resulting estimation problem involves highly nonlinear diffusion process (propagation); consequently, significant distortion of a posteriori conditional density is suspected. A simulation based statistical analysis tool is developed to characterize the nonlinear diffusion process. The statistical analysis results indicate that the diffusion process preserves the symmetry and unimodality of initial probability density shape state variables, and provide the basis for applicability of an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). An EKF is designed for the AHSV air-data system and the air data estimation capabilities are demonstrated.

  • PDF

A Study on the EHP Estimation and Design Procedure of Small Fishing Boat's Hull Form (소형어선(小型漁船)의 유효마력추정(有效馬力推定) 및 선형설계법(船型設計法))

  • Young-Gill,Lee
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 1984
  • The computer programs of effective horsepower estimation of small fishing boat were developed, which was based on the statistical analysis of model test results. From the EHP estimation by these program and experimental model tests of practical fishing boats, the estimation accuracy was verified with maximum deviation of about 10 percent. Also, the EHP estimation accuracy was practically applied to initial design of four small fishing boats, and after the tank tests, the EHP reduction of the order of 15 to 25 percent was confirmed, as compared with existing ships. Moreover, a computer aided design procedure of fishing boat's hull form has been proposed in this study. The practical use of this procedure of fishing boat's hull form has been proposed in this study. The practical use of this procedure was demonstrated with the hull form design results of several fishing boats.

  • PDF