• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.15-26
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• 2009

The internet has dramatically changed a way of business management and competition in the business environment. Especially, it stimulated not only to evolve online floral distribution service but also to change a phase of competition among floral retail stores in industry. And that also led to keen competition among IT service providers as well. This study is to examine how floral retail stores have been evolved and competed with the radical situation of the floral distribution industry through IT service in the aspect of business and information technology. In addition, the Typhoon Positioning Strategy(TPS), a strategy for the IT service positioning, is introduced from IT service provider's perspective. For IT service providers to create high business value and continuous service providing, IT service should be positioned on the customers' "core business" and developed to the level of "solution." The Typhoon Positioning Strategy(TPS) is a strategy for the IT service positioning, indicating that IT service should be positioned according to a Business Process-Service model with the consideration of business development direction, IT service trend, and user's IT capability. That is, IT service providers should find out customers' "core business" area first to provide a right IT service to the company, and the IT service provided should meet to the level of business solution. The capability of the IT solution users is also an important factor to be considered for the advanced IT service. There are four principles of the Typhoon Positioning Strategy(TPS). Principle 1) IT service provided should be an IT solution Map suitable for customer business processes. Principle 2) IT service provided should be able to support customer core business. Principle 3) IT service provided should be a business solution. Principle. 4) IT service provided should be applied differently according to the level of customer's IT capability.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.13-19
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• 2014

In the past, Korea agro-climatic zone except Jeju-do was classified into nineteen based on rice culture by using air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration etc. during rice growing periods. It has been used for selecting safety zone of rice cultivation and countermeasures to meteorological disasters. In this study, the climatic variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration of twenty agro-climatic zones including Jeju-do were compared decennially (1970's, 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's). The meteorological data were obtained in Meteorological Information Portal Service System-Disaster Prevention, Korea Meteorological Administration. The temperature of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $12.0{\pm}0.14^{\circ}C$, $11.9{\pm}0.13^{\circ}C$, $12.2{\pm}0.14^{\circ}C$, and $12.6{\pm}0.13^{\circ}C$, respectively. The precipitation of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $1,270.3{\pm}20.05mm$, $1,343.0{\pm}26.01mm$, $1,350.6{\pm}27.13mm$, and $1,416.8{\pm}24.87mm$, respectively. And the sunshine duration of 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s were $421.7{\pm}18.37hours$, $2,352.4{\pm}15.01hours$, $2,196.3{\pm}12.32hours$, and $2,146.8{\pm}15.37hours$, respectively. The temperature in Middle-Inland zone ($+1.2^{\circ}C$) and Eastern-Southern zone ($+1.1^{\circ}C$) remarkably increased. The temperature increased most in Taebak highly Cold zone ($+364mm$) and Taebak moderately Cold Zone ($+326mm$). The sunshine duration decreased most in Middle-Inland Zone (-995 hours). The temperature (F=2.708, df=3, p= 0.046) and precipitation (F=5.037, df=3, p=0.002) increased significantly among seasons while the sunshine duration decreased significantly(F=26.181, df=3, p<0.0001) among seasons. In further study, it will need to reclassify agro-climatic zone of rice and it will need to conduct studies on safe cropping season, growth and developing of rice, and cultivation management system etc. based on reclassified agro-climatic zone.

• The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.57-95
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• 2021

Korea's period for preservation of embryos is up to five years (the Bioethics Act). However, the study reviewed domestic and foreign laws and drew issues due to the recent demand that the development of related science and technology and the period limitation limit the rights of consent holder for embryo production. the first issue is that preserved embryos are intended for pregnancy, and it is important to ensure that the autonomy of the consent holder is protected through careful consideration based on information such as scientific evidence. the second is that regulations regarding the obligation to manage embryonic preservation institutions are needed. the third is to create a social atmosphere in which embryo creation, preservation, and disposal take place in a minimum range, considering the special status of embryos. based on this issue, the first of the proposals for rational improvement of the regulation and system about embryo preservation is the introduction of an environment in which sufficient explanation and appropriate consent can be exercised and to extend the reasons for the extension of the period, rather than specifying the specific period in law. the second is that institutionalization is necessary considering not only the obligation to manage preservation institutions but also the overall site, such as concerns that may arise as a result. lastly, we propose the introduction of a management method considering the future use of embryos, such as transfer to provide research purposes and donation of pregnancy purposes by others. this process should be a method of sufficient social discussion and consensus, as well as a general consideration of the family relationship with the born child.

• Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.129-149
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• 2021

The purposes of this study were to examine the current status of the establishment of home economics-related departments in colleges and universities and the changes required in the home economics curriculum of secondary schools, and to structure the elective courses of home economics subject(group) that can be organized in the next high school curriculum. To achieve these purposes, related literature and data were analyzed, and a questionnaire survey and FGI were conducted by home economics experts. The research results are as follows. First, home economics was considered to be highly related not only to the human ecology but also to social sciences, education, engineering, and arts and physical education. The numbers of technical colleges and 4-year universities with departments related to home economics were 1,405 and 961 respectively in 2019. Therefore, it was confirmed that there is a sufficient basis for opening home economics subject(group) elective courses in high school. Second, in the secondary school home economics curriculum, the concepts of culture, relations, independence, and sustainability were emphasized based on the changing life patterns and values. It was proposed that the contents of the home economics course would be structured in a way that allows deep and high-level thinking and helps students to enjoy culture. This demand can be implemented by diversifying, specializing, and structuring the elective courses of the home economics subject(group). Third, a total of 18 elective subjects and subject outlines were structured in the fields of child/family, food/nutrition, clothing, housing, consumption/family management, and home economics integration. This study results will contribute to the establishment of the high school credit system by providing basic information for organizing the next home economics curriculum, and expanding the options for home economics subject(group) to high school students.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.134-145
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• 2023

Currently, the floodplains of major rivers are transforming into various types of waterfront spaces according to the increase in leisure activities and improved accessibility. In general, waterfront activities in river channels tend to be concentrated in summer, and the waterfront activities during this period directly affect water quality. Accordingly, it is necessary to accurately compare and evaluate the characteristics and water quality of waterfront activities during the period when waterfront activities are concentrated. In this study, the following research was conducted to compare and analyze the current status of waterfront activities of users of waterfront areas and the water quality of waterfront areas. First, three waterfront areas were selected for investigation using the information from the Ministry of Environment's water quality measurement network. Second, a survey was conducted on the satisfaction and types of waterfront activities targeting users of waterfront areas. Third, water quality grades were calculated based on monthly water quality measurement factors and compared. Fourth, statistical analysis (one-way analysis of variance) was conducted to see if there was a significant difference in water quality characteristics between periods of high waterfront activity and periods of low waterfront activity using water quality measurement data for the last 5 years. As a result of this analysis, the following conclusions were drawn in this study. First, the use of waterfront activities was investigated in the order of camping, water skiing, fishing, swimming, and rafting. Second, satisfaction factors for waterfront activities were investigated in the order of activity convenience, water quality, waterlandscape, transportation access convenience, and temperature. Third, it was found that satisfaction with water quality in waterfront areas was generally unsatisfactory regardless of the water quality grade presented by the competent authority. Fourth, as a result of comparing the water quality measurement network data of the Ministry of Environment by water quality grade, generally good grades were found, and in particular, there was a difference in grade frequency by season in the BOD category. Fifth, as a result of statistical analysis (one-way ANOVA) of water quality monitoring network data by season, there were statistically significant differences in COD, BOD, TP, and TOC except for DO. Considering the results of these studies, it is judged that it is necessary to prepare a comprehensive management system for water quality improvement in the waterfront zone and to improve water quality during periods of high waterfront activity, and to prepare a water quality forecasting system for waterfront areas in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.427-435
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• 2023

Changes in flowering time due to weather fluctuations impact plant growth and ecosystem dynamics. Accurate prediction of flowering timing is crucial for effective forest ecosystem management. This study uses a process-based model to predict flowering timing in 2023 for five major tree species in Korean forests. Models are developed based on nine years (2009-2017) of flowering data for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, Rhododendron schlippenbachii, Rhododendron yedoense f. poukhanense, and Sorbus commixta, distributed across 28 regions in the country, including mountains. Weather data from the Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation System (AMOS) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) are utilized as inputs for the models. The Single Triangle Degree Days (STDD) and Growing Degree Days (GDD) models, known for their superior performance, are employed to predict flowering dates. Daily temperature readings at a 1 km spatial resolution are obtained by merging AMOS and KMA data. To improve prediction accuracy nationwide, random forest machine learning is used to generate region-specific correction coefficients. Applying these coefficients results in minimal prediction errors, particularly for Abeliophyllum distichum, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Rhododendron schlippenbachii, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 1.2, 0.6, and 1.2 days, respectively. Model performance is evaluated using ten random sampling tests per species, selecting the model with the highest R². The models with applied correction coefficients achieve R² values ranging from 0.07 to 0.7, except for Sorbus commixta, and exhibit a final explanatory power of 0.75-0.9. This study provides valuable insights into seasonal changes in plant phenology, aiding in identifying honey harvesting seasons affected by abnormal weather conditions, such as those of Robinia pseudoacacia. Detailed information on flowering timing for various plant species and regions enhances understanding of the climate-plant phenology relationship.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.147-168
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• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.83-102
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• 2021

The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2015

In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.