• Title/Summary/Keyword: Influence Vector

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Predicting Stock Liquidity by Using Ensemble Data Mining Methods

  • Bae, Eun Chan;Lee, Kun Chang
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.9-19
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    • 2016
  • In finance literature, stock liquidity showing how stocks can be cashed out in the market has received rich attentions from both academicians and practitioners. The reasons are plenty. First, it is known that stock liquidity affects significantly asset pricing. Second, macroeconomic announcements influence liquidity in the stock market. Therefore, stock liquidity itself affects investors' decision and managers' decision as well. Though there exist a great deal of literature about stock liquidity in finance literature, it is quite clear that there are no studies attempting to investigate the stock liquidity issue as one of decision making problems. In finance literature, most of stock liquidity studies had dealt with limited views such as how much it influences stock price, which variables are associated with describing the stock liquidity significantly, etc. However, this paper posits that stock liquidity issue may become a serious decision-making problem, and then be handled by using data mining techniques to estimate its future extent with statistical validity. In this sense, we collected financial data set from a number of manufacturing companies listed in KRX (Korea Exchange) during the period of 2010 to 2013. The reason why we selected dataset from 2010 was to avoid the after-shocks of financial crisis that occurred in 2008. We used Fn-GuidPro system to gather total 5,700 financial data set. Stock liquidity measure was computed by the procedures proposed by Amihud (2002) which is known to show best metrics for showing relationship with daily return. We applied five data mining techniques (or classifiers) such as Bayesian network, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, neural network, and ensemble method. Bayesian networks include GBN (General Bayesian Network), NBN (Naive BN), TAN (Tree Augmented NBN). Decision tree uses CART and C4.5. Regression result was used as a benchmarking performance. Ensemble method uses two types-integration of two classifiers, and three classifiers. Ensemble method is based on voting for the sake of integrating classifiers. Among the single classifiers, CART showed best performance with 48.2%, compared with 37.18% by regression. Among the ensemble methods, the result from integrating TAN, CART, and SVM was best with 49.25%. Through the additional analysis in individual industries, those relatively stabilized industries like electronic appliances, wholesale & retailing, woods, leather-bags-shoes showed better performance over 50%.

An Adaptive Adjacent Cell Interference Mitigation Method for Eigen-Beamforming Transmission in Downlink Cellular Systems (하향 링크 셀룰러 시스템의 Eigen-Beamforming 전송을 위한 적응적 인접 셀 간섭 완화 방법)

  • Chang, Jae-Won;Kim, Se-Jin;Kim, Jae-Won;Sung, Won-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.248-256
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    • 2009
  • EB(Eigen-Beamforming) has widely been applied to MIMO(Multiple-Input Multiple-Output) systems to form beams which maximize the effective signal-to-interference plus noise ratio(SINR) of the receiver using the singular value decomposition(SVD) of the MIMO channel. However, the signal detection performance for the mobile station near the cell boundary is severely degraded and the transmission efficiency decreases due to the influence of the interference signal from the adjacent cells. In this paper, we propose an adaptive interference mitigation method for the EB transmission, and evaluate the reception performance. In particular, a reception strategy which adaptively utilizes optimal combining(OC) and minimum mean-squared error for Intercell spatial demultiplexing(MMSE-lSD) is proposed, and the reception performance is investigated in terms of the effective SINR and system capacity. For the average system capacity, the proposed adaptive reception demonstrates the performance enhancement compared to the conventional EB reception using the receiver beamforming vector, and up to 2 bps/Hz performance gain is achieved for mobile station located at the cell edge.

Study on the Forecasting and Effecting Factor of BDI by VECM (VECM에 의한 BDI 예측과 영향요인에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Yhun;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.546-554
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    • 2018
  • The Bulk market, unlike the line market, is characterized by stiff competition where certain ship or freight owners have no influence on freight rates. However, freights are subject to macroeconomic variables and economic external shock which should be considered in determining management or chartering decisions. According to the results analyzed by use of ARIMA Inventiom model, the impact of the financial crisis was found to have a very strong bearing on the BDI index. First, according to the results of the VEC model, the libor rate affects the BDI index negatively (-) while exchange rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). Secondly, according to the results of the VEC model's J ohanson test, the order ship volume affects the BDI index by negatively (-) while China's economic growth rate affects the BDI index by positively (+). This shows that the shipping company has moved away from the simple carrier and responded appropriately to changes in macroeconomic variables (economic fluctuations, interest rates and exchange rates). It is believed that the shipping companies should be more aggressive in its "trading" management strategy in order to prevent any unfortunate situation such as the Hanjin Shipping incident.

Machine learning-based Fine Dust Prediction Model using Meteorological data and Fine Dust data (기상 데이터와 미세먼지 데이터를 활용한 머신러닝 기반 미세먼지 예측 모형)

  • KIM, Hye-Lim;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.92-111
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    • 2021
  • As fine dust negatively affects disease, industry and economy, the people are sensitive to fine dust. Therefore, if the occurrence of fine dust can be predicted, countermeasures can be prepared in advance, which can be helpful for life and economy. Fine dust is affected by the weather and the degree of concentration of fine dust emission sources. The industrial sector has the largest amount of fine dust emissions, and in industrial complexes, factories emit a lot of fine dust as fine dust emission sources. This study targets regions with old industrial complexes in local cities. The purpose of this study is to explore the factors that cause fine dust and develop a predictive model that can predict the occurrence of fine dust. weather data and fine dust data were used, and variables that influence the generation of fine dust were extracted through multiple regression analysis. Based on the results of multiple regression analysis, a model with high predictive power was extracted by learning with a machine learning regression learner model. The performance of the model was confirmed using test data. As a result, the models with high predictive power were linear regression model, Gaussian process regression model, and support vector machine. The proportion of training data and predictive power were not proportional. In addition, the average value of the difference between the predicted value and the measured value was not large, but when the measured value was high, the predictive power was decreased. The results of this study can be developed as a more systematic and precise fine dust prediction service by combining meteorological data and urban big data through local government data hubs. Lastly, it will be an opportunity to promote the development of smart industrial complexes.

Behavior of Closely-Spaced Tunnel According to Separation Distance Using Scaled Model Tests (축소모형실험을 통한 이격거리에 따른 근접터널의 거동)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Ho;Choi, Jung-In;Shim, Seong-Hyeon;Lee, Seok-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2008
  • Most of roadway tunnels have been constructed in the form of parallel twin tunnel in Korea. If parallel twin tunnel does not have a sufficient separation distance between tunnels, the problem of tunnel stability can occur. Generally, it is reported that tunnels are not influenced by each other when a center distance between tunnels is two times longer than tunnel diameter under the complete elastic ground and five times under the soft ground. In this study, the scaled model tests of closely-spaced parallel twin tunnel using homogeneous material are performed and induced displacements are measured around the tunnel openings during excavation. The influence of separation distance between tunnels on the behavior of closely-spaced tunnel is investigated. The experimental results are expressed by the induced displacement vector and progress of crack during construction and at failure. The results show that based on the analysis of induced displacement at the crown during construction, the additional displacement of the preceding tunnel induced by the excavation of following tunnel decreases as the separation distance between twin tunnel increases until the center to center distance is two times of tunnel diameter. Beyond this point, however, the additional displacement has become stabilized.

A Study on Carbon Nano Materials as Conductive Oilers for Microwave Absorbers (전자파 흡수체를 위한 전도성 소재로서의 탄소나노소재의 특성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Kwan;Kim, Chun-Gon;Kim, Jin-Bong
    • Composites Research
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.28-33
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we have studied the complex permittivities and their influence on the design of microwave absorbers of E-glass fabric/epoxy composite laminates containing three different types of carbon-based nano conductive fillers such as carbon black (CB), carbon nano fiber (CNF) and multi-wall nano tube (MWNT). The measurements were performed fur permittivities at the frequency band of 0.5 GHz$\sim$18.0 GHz using a vector network analyzer with a 7 mm coaxial air line. The experimental results show that the complex permittivities of the composites depend strongly on the natures and concentrations of the conductive fillers. The real and imaginary parts of the complex permittivities of the composites were proportional to the filler concentrations. But, depending on the types of fillers and frequency band, the increasing rates of the real and imaginary parts with respect to the filler concentrations were all different. These different rates can have an effect on the thickness in designing the single layer microwave absorbers. The effect of the different rates at 10 GHz was examined by using Cole-Cole plot; the plot is composed of a single layer absorber solution line and measured permittivities from these three types of composites. Single layer absorbers of 3 different thicknesses using carbon nano materials were fabricated and the -10 dB band of absorbing performances were all about 3 GHz.

Spatial Similarity between the Changjiang Diluted Water and Marine Heatwaves in the East China Sea during Summer (여름철 양자강 희석수 공간 분포와 동중국해 해양열파의 공간적 유사성에 관한 연구)

  • YONG-JIN TAK;YANG-KI CHO;HAJOON SONG;SEUNG-HWA CHAE;YONG-YUB KIM
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2023
  • Marine heatwaves (MHWs), referring to anomalously high sea surface temperatures, have drawn significant attention from marine scientists due to their broad impacts on the surface marine ecosystem, fisheries, weather patterns, and various human activities. In this study, we examined the impact of the distribution of Changjiang diluted water (CDW), a significant factor causing oceanic property changes in the East China Sea (ECS) during the summer, on MHWs. The surface salinity distribution in the ECS indicates that from June to August, the eastern extension of the CDW influences areas as far as Jeju Island and the Korea Strait. In September, however, the CDW tends to reside in the Changjiang estuary. Through the Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the cumulative intensity of MHWs during the summer, we extracted the loading vector of the first mode and its principal component time series to conduct a correlation analysis with the distribution of the CDW. The results revealed a strong negative spatial correlation between areas of the CDW and regions with high cumulative intensity of MHWs, indicating that the reinforcement of stratification due to low-salinity water can increase the intensity and duration of MHWs. This study suggests that the CDW may still influence the spatial distribution of MHWs in the region, highlighting the importance of oceanic environmental factors in the occurrence of MHWs in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula.

Comparison of the Vertical Data between Eulerian and Lagrangian Method (오일러와 라그랑주 관측방식의 연직 자료 비교)

  • Hyeok-Jin Bae;Byung Hyuk Kwon;Sang Jin Kim;Kyung-Hun Lee;Geon-Myeong Lee;Yu-Jin Kim;Ji-Woo Seo;Yu-Jung Koo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.1009-1014
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    • 2023
  • Comprehensive observations of the Euler method and the Lagrangian method were performed in order to obtain high-resolution observation data in space and time for the complex environment of new city. The two radiosondes, which measure meteorological parameters using Lagrangian methods, produced air pressure, wind speed and wind direction. They were generally consistent with each other even if the observation points or times were different. The temperature measured by the sensor exposed to the air during the day was relatively high as the altitude increased due to the influence of solar radiation. The temporal difference in wind direction and speed was found in the comparison of Euler's wind profiler data with radiosonde data. When the wind field is horizontally in homogeneous, this result implies the need to consider the advection component to compare the data of the two observation methods. In this study, a method of using observation data at different times for each altitude section depending on the observation period of the Euler method is proposed to effectively compare the data of the two observation methods.

Analysis of Price Fluctuation Factors in the Vessel Demolition Market : Focusing on India & Bangladesh (선박 해체시장 가격 변동 요인 분석 : 인디아, 방글라데시를 중심으로)

  • Lee ChongWoo;Jang Chul-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the factors contributing to price fluctuations in the shipscrapping market, the final stage in a vessel's life cycle. Shipping companies make decisions on ship dismantling based on factors such as declining freight rates, increasing vessel age leading to higher costs, or compliance with new environmental regulations. Utilizing the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) methodologies, the research explores the long-term elasticities of factors influencing shipscrapping prices and examines short-term causal relationships. Using a time series dataset spanning from December 2015 to April 2023, covering a total of 90 months, the study focuses on the shipscrapping prices of Capesize vessels in India and Bangladesh, which constitute a significant portion of the shipbreaking market. The findings indicate that, in the long term, shipscrapping prices are closely related to global scrap prices, 20-year-old secondhand Capesize vessel prices, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. In terms of short-term causal relationships, an increase in global scrap prices induces a rise in shipscrapping prices, while the remaining variables do not contribute to such increases. Specifically, an escalation in shipscrapping prices is associated with increased prices of 20-year-old secondhand vessels, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. However, the other variables do not show a significant influence on short-term increases in shipscrapping prices.

The Determination Factor's Variation of Real Estate Price after Financial Crisis in Korea (2008년 금융위기 이후 부동산가격 결정요인 변화 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Soon;Kwon, Chi-Hung;Lee, Kyung-Ae;Lee, Hyun-Rim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.367-377
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    • 2011
  • This paper investigates the determination factors' variation of real estate price after sub-prime financial crisis, in korea, using a VAR model. The model includes land price, housing price, housing rent (Jensei) price, which time period is from 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q and uses interest rate, real GDP, consumer price index, KOSPI, the number of housing construction, the amount of land sales and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Data cover two sub-periods and divided by 2008:3Q that occurred the sub-prime crisis; one is a period of 2000:1Q to 2008:3Q, the other is based a period of 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q. As a result, Comparing sub-prime crisis before and after, land price come out that the influence of real GDP is expanding, but current interest rate's variation is weaken due to the stagnation of current economic status and housing construction market. Housing price is few influenced to interest rate and real GDP, but it is influenced its own variation or Jensei price's variation. According to the Jensei price's rapidly increasing in nowadays, housing price might be increasing a rising possibility. Jensei price is also weaken the influence of all economic index, housing price, comparing before sub-prime financial crisis and it is influenced its own variation the same housing price. As you know, real estate price is weakened market basic value factors such as, interest rate, real GDP, because it is influenced exogenous economic factors such as population structural changes. Economic participators, economic officials, consumer, construction supplyers need to access an accurate observation about current real estate market and economic status.