• Title/Summary/Keyword: Industry Development Policy

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Technical Efficiency in Korea: Interindustry Determinants and Dynamic Stability (기술적(技術的) 효율성(效率性)의 결정요인(決定要因)과 동태적(動態的) 변화(變化))

  • Yoo, Seong-min
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.21-46
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    • 1990
  • This paper, a sequel to Yoo and Lee (1990), attempts to investigate the interindustry determinants of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries, and also to conduct an exploratory analysis on the stability of technical efficiency over time. The hypotheses set forth in this paper are most found in the existing literature on technical efficiency. They are, however, revised and shed a new light upon, whenever possible, to accommodate any Korea-specific conditions. The set of regressors used in the cross-sectional analysis are chosen and the hypotheses are posed in such a way that our result can be made comparable to those of similar studies conducted for the U.S. and Japan by Caves and Barton (1990) and Uekusa and Torii (1987), respectively. It is interesting to observe a certain degree of similarity as well as differentiation between the cross-section evidence on Korea's manufacturing industries and that on the U.S. and Japanese industries. As for the similarities, we can find positive and significant effects on technical efficiency of relative size of production and the extent of specialization in production, and negative and significant effect of the variations in capital-labor ratio within industries. The curvature influence of concentration ratio on technical efficiency is also confirmed in the Korean case. There are differences, too. We cannot find any significant effects of capital vintage, R&D and foreign competition on technical efficiency, all of which were shown to be robust determinants of technical efficiency in the U.S. case. We note, however, that the variables measuring capital vintage effect, R&D and the degree of foreign competition in Korean markets are suspected to suffer from serious measurement errors incurred in data collection and/or conversion of industrial classification system into the KSIC (Korea Standard Industrial Classification) system. Thus, we are reluctant to accept the findings on the effects of these variables as definitive conclusions on Korea's industrial organization. Another finding that interests us is that the cross-industry evidence becomes consistently strong when we use the efficiency estimates based on gross output instead of value added, which provides us with an ex post empirical criterion to choose an output measure between the two in estimating the production frontier. We also conduct exploratory analyses on the stability of the estimates of technical efficiency in Korea's manufacturing industries. Though the method of testing stability employed in this paper is never a complete one, we cannot find strong evidence that our efficiency estimates are stable over time. The outcome is both surprising and disappointing. We can also show that the instability of technical efficiency over time is partly explained by the way we constructed our measures of technical efficiency. To the extent that our efficiency estimates depend on the shape of the empirical distribution of plants in the input-output space, any movements of the production frontier over time are not reflected in the estimates, and possibilities exist of associating a higher level of technical efficiency with a downward movement of the production frontier over time, and so on. Thus, we find that efficiency measures that take into account not only the distributional changes, but also the shifts of the production frontier over time, increase the extent of stability, and are more appropriate for use in a dynamic context. The remaining portion of the instability of technical efficiency over time is not explained satisfactorily in this paper, and future research should address this question.

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A Study on Organizational Strategy and Operational Elements of Community-based Agricultural Management Bodies (마을단위 농업경영체 조직전략 및 운영요소 도출 연구)

  • Kim, Jong An;Kil, Cheong Soon;Kim, Gi Tae;Kim, Won Gyeong
    • Journal of Agricultural Extension & Community Development
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.777-822
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    • 2013
  • This study attempts to elicit the organizational strategy and operational elements of community-based agricultural management bodies as new main farm management. We analyzed the newest discussion trend, cooperated community management, between Republic of Korea and Japan based on theory of organizing regional agriculture, and also researched on the organization management and business management about cooperated management of community. In this study, the main conclusion of the organizational strategy and operational elements of community-based agricultural management bodies are as following. i) The community-based agricultural management bodies is the cooperation managed individual agriculture resources as joint stock for purposing compound goal, an expansion agricultural income, maintenance farm productivity and rural societies. ii) The domain of cooperative management focus on secondary and tertiary industry like food process, farm produce distribution, rural experience more than farm produce production. The study suggest business promotion system of village unit farmers groups, element of organization management as executive decision organization, business management, operating factor for each steps and management element of cooperation farm working. iii) The policy direction for invigoration community-based agricultural management bodies is to make facilitation for each steps instead of standardized support.

Appling Nursing Theory to Clinical Practice of Home Health Care (가정간호실무에 적용가능한 이론적틀)

  • Woo, Seon-Hye
    • Journal of Home Health Care Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2004
  • The home health care industry has grown rapidly and can be expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future. Home health care refers to the practice of nursing applied to clients with a health condition in the clients place of residence. clients and their designated care givers are the focus at home health nursing practice. The goal of care is to initiate. manage and evaluate the resources needed to promote the clients optimal level of well-being and function. Nursing activities necessary to achieve this goal may warrant preventive maintenance and restorative emphases to prevent potential problems from developing. Many project program were suggested home health care model for Korea's health care system and policy direction for expansion and establishment of home health care .But the aim of this paper is to provide on overview for theoretical frame work in home health care. Theories and conceptual frameworks or models are important nursing because they define and guide the boundaries of professional practice and identify key nurse-patient-caregiver relationships that emerge with caring. Following is the research with an investigation of the literature review in the University of Arizona international medline database, In conclusion, are as followers: First, many nursing theorists have had a tremendous impact on nursing practice. the following highlights those nursing theorists that are particularly helpful in understanding home health care. 1. Florence Nightingale : Our earliest theoretical legacy. Nightingale's believes are reflected in basic infection control practice such as hand washing and infectious waste disposal and are key nursing interventions in home care. 2. Martha Roger's :Science of unitary human beings theory. Rorger's believed that the focus of shared. non invasive healing modelities is the human environmental field rather than direct physical care. These modelities continue to evolve as our awareness (reflecting greater diversity, faster rhythms, motions, and ways of knowing) transcends time and space, allowing individuals to get in touch with their integral nature of unbroken wholeness. On people as ever changing energy fields have special relevance in home care especially with hospice and palliative care applications. 3. Madeline Leininger's; Transcultural nursing theory. Home care nurses move through a variety of communities and often care for patients from different cultural back grounds. Therefore Leininger's work has a good that with home care because home care nursing practice is very culturally focused. 4. Dorothea Orem's : Self care deficit theory. Orem's theory views care as something to be performed by both nurses and patients. The role of the nurse is to provide education and support that help patients acquire the necessary activities to perform self-care. Orem's theory is foundational to have care because it begins to truly acknowledge the role of the patient in managing his or her own health. which is referred to as self-care. 5. Margaret Neuman's; Health as expending consciousness theory. Neuman believes that health compasses disease and reflects an underlying pattern of person-environment interaction. A key application of 'Neuman's work to home care is for nurses to understand that health and illness do not necessarily exist at opposite ends of a continuum. 6. Jean Watson's: Theory of human caring. Watson's theory of human caring in nursing proposes human caring as the moral ideal of nursing. Nurses participate human caring to protect, enhance and preserve humanity by assisting individuals to fing meaning in illness. pain and existence and to help others gain self knowledge. self control. and self healing such thinking lends richness to theory development. as well as clinical practice in home care. Second, Robin Rice : Dynamic self determination for self care. (A theoretical framework for home care) Dynamical self determination for self care can be useful to home care nurses in a variety of ways. As research tool it can be reflected in the interview process when the home visit. The home care nurse's role is that of facilitator of patient self-determination for self care through numerous strategies. including patient education and case management.

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Economic Effects of Eliminating Trade Barriers under Imperfect Competition (불완전경쟁하(不完全競爭下)에서의 무역장벽(貿易障壁) 완화효과(緩和效果))

  • Lee, Hong-gue
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.29-54
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    • 1992
  • Recent studies on the economic effects of trade liberalization and economic integration have emphasized the significant gains associated with product differentiation and scale economies. Securing access to markets in other countries will make it possible to increase product variety and capture scale economies, thus, expanding the gains from trade. Liberalization is also expected to introduce foreign competition into the previously closed market. Concurrently, the liberalization will improve the competitive market environment for firms selling in the domestic market. Firms will be pressed to either exit or reduce cost. The output per firm, then, will increase due to the exit of rival firms, and the average total cost will decline due to the economies of scale. 'Rationalization' of the production process will eventually follow. This paper addresses the economic effects of (counterfactual) bilateral tariff elimination between Korea and Japan. It computationally assesses the gains from liberalization as well as the resource allocations and welfare effects associated with the tariff reduction. The endogenous determination of the key parameters distinguishes this paper from others. The firm's perceived elasticity of demand and elasticity of substitution in the present model are calibrated to be consistent with the base year data. Korea, Japan, and the rest of the world are modeled explicitly. The sectoral coverage of the model includes twenty-three tradable product categories based on three-digit SITC industries and seven nontradable categories based on one-digit SITC industries. Product categories are also classified into perfectly competitive and imperfectly competitive ones. In the imperfectly competitive industries, product differentiation exists at the firm level, while the perfectly competitive industries are characterized by national product differentiation. The simulation results of bilateral tariff reduction are reported. Tariff elimination tends to increase intra-industry trade flows so that the total amount of exports and imports of both countries expand. Yet, Japan is expected to increase the bilateral trade surplus in the wake of the mutual tariff reduction. Terms-of-trade for Korea will not change, while for Japan it will deteriorate. Equivalent variations reflecting the change in consumer surplus (welfare) will favor Korean consumers. Total output, however, will not change substantially, recording 0.5 and 0.6% for Japan and Korea, respectively. An interesting finding in the analysis is that the gains from increased competition and scale efficiency are not as prevailing as expected in theory.

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Study of major issues and trends facing ports, using big data news: From 1991 to 2020 (뉴스 빅데이터를 활용한 항만이슈 변화연구 : 1991~2020)

  • Yoon, Hee-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzed issues and trends related to ports with 86,611 news articles for the 30 years from 1991 to 2020, using BIGKinds, a big data news analysis service. The analysis was based on keyword analysis, word cloud, relationship diagram analysis offered by BIG Kinds. Analysis results of issues and trends on ports for the last 30 years are summarized as follows. First, during Phase 1 (1991-2000), individual ports such as Busan, Incheon, and Gwangyang ports tried to strengthen their own competitiveness. During Phase 2 (2001-2010), efforts were made on gaining more professional and specialized port management abilities by establishing the Busan Port Authority in 2004, the Incheon Port Authority in 2005, and the Ulsan Port Authority in 2007. During Phase 3 (2011-2020), the promotion of future-oriented, eco-friendly, and smart ports was major issues. Efforts to reduce particulate matters and pollutants produced from ports were accelerated, and an attempt to build a smart port driven by port automation and digitalization was also intensified. Lastly, in 2020, when the maritime sector was severely hit by the unexpected shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, a microscopic analysis of trends and issues in 2019 and 2020 was made to look into the impact the pandemic on the maritime industry. It was found that shipping and port industries experienced more drastic changes than ever while trying to prepare for a post-pandemic era as well as promoting future-oriented ports. This study made policy suggestions by analyzing port-related news articles and trends, and it is expected that based on the findings of this research, further studies on enhancing the competitiveness of ports and devising a sustainable development strategy will follow through a comparative analysis of port issues of different countries, thereby making further progress toward academic research on ports.

A Study on the Level of Citizen Participation in Smart City Project (스마트도시사업 단계별 시민참여 수준 진단에 관한 연구)

  • PARK, Ji-Ho;PARK, Joung-Woo;NAM, Kwang-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.12-28
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    • 2021
  • Based on the global smart city promotion trend, in 2018, the "Fourth Industrial Revolution Committee" selected "sustainability" and "people-centered" as keywords in relation to the direction of domestic smart city policy. Accordingly, the Living Lab program, which is an active citizen-centered innovation methodology, is applied to each stage of the domestic smart city construction project. Through the Living Lab program, and in collaboration with the public and experts, the smart city discovers local issues as it focuses on citizens, devises solutions to sustainable urban problems, and formulates a regional development plan that reflects the needs of citizens. However, compared to citizen participation in urban regeneration projects that have been operated for a relatively long time, participation in smart city projects was found to significantly differ in level and sustainability. Therefore, this study conducted a comparative analysis of the characteristics of citizen participation at each stage of an urban regeneration project and, based on Arnstein's "Participation Ladder" model, examined the level of citizen participation activities in the Living Lab program carried out in a smart city commercial area from 2018 to 2019. The results indicated that citizen participation activities in the Living Lab conducted in the smart city project had a great influence on selecting smart city services, which fit the needs of local residents, and on determining the technological level of services appropriate to the region based on a relatively high level of authority, such as selection of smart city services or composition of solutions. However, most of the citizen participation activities were halted after the project's completion due to the one-off recruitment of citizen participation groups for the smart city construction project only. On the other hand, citizens' participation activities in the field of urban regeneration were focused on local communities, and continuous operation and management measures were being drawn from the project planning stage to the operation stage after the project was completed. This study presented a plan to revitalize citizen participation for the realization of a more sustainable smart city through a comparison of the characteristics and an examination of the level of citizen participation in such urban regeneration and smart city projects.

New Platform of Orientalism-Based Design Education (동양성 기반의 디자인 교육의 새로운 플랫폼)

  • Choi, Kyung Ran
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.20
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    • pp.455-464
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    • 2015
  • As the recognition toward the Korean design education development to nurture creative talents for the future society has been expanded recently, various supports and promoting strategies are being suggested. This study suggests the orientalism-based new design education platform in design education field to nurture creative talents. To have the competitiveness of creative talent nurturing, the system and education programs to rear creative talents are required. The purpose of this study is to suggest the new platform for the change of direction in design education and search for the methods in detail. The research process can be described as following: First, this study stated about the research background and its boundary. Based on the literature review and the condition of the crisis of Korean design education (Korean Industrial Statistic Investigation), it described the current condition and the characteristics. Second, this study stated about the education which will be disappeared in the information society, the change of direction in design education, and the new platform. In the current study, the change toward the strategies that give priority to the growth strategies on the knowledge-based industry was stated. Third, this study stated about that the future design education should be centered on the orientalism-based creativity in the trend changing to the six conditions for the future talents and the beliefs and values toward Asia, and what methods should be sought to achieve this trend. It suggested focusing on the aim for the direction for College education and its program curriculums as the solutions in detail. Fourth, based on the contents stated earlier in this study, it stated synthetically the direction of practice through the network of the design cluster and derived the implications. In conclusion, based on the recent orientalism-based mind, this study suggested the ways to find the identity of Korean design education itself and have the competitiveness in design education programs. The ways to secure them is to come from the integrated system innovation of the network. By actively applying the design clusters, colleges and universities, designers, studios, government policy organizations, design institutes, corporates, media, and fairs, this study suggests the sustainable education system and the practical methods.

A Study on Predicting the Logistics Demand of Inland Ports on the Yangtze River (장강 내수로 항만의 물류 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Zhen Wu;Hyun-Chung Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.217-242
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the logistics demand of inland ports along the Yangtze River and predict future port logistics demand based on these factors. The logistics demand prediction using system dynamics techniques was conducted for a total of six ports, including Chongqing and Yibin ports in the upper reaches, Jingzhou and Wuhan ports in the middle reaches, and Nanjing and Suzhou ports in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The logistics demand for all ports showed an increasing trend in the mid-term prediction until 2026. The logistics demand of Chongqing port was mainly influenced by the scale of the hinterland economy, while Yibin port appeared to heavily rely on the level of port automation. In the case of the upper and middle reach ports, logistics demand increased as the energy consumption of the hinterland increased and the air pollution situation worsened. The logistics demand of the middle reach ports was greatly influenced by the hinterland infrastructure, while the lower reach ports were sensitive to changes in the urban construction area. According to the sensitivity analysis, the logistics demand of ports relying on large cities was relatively stable against the increase and decrease of influential factors, while ports with smaller hinterland city scales reacted sensitively to changes in influential factors. Therefore, a strategy should be established to strengthen policy support for Chongqing port as the core port of the upper Yangtze River and have surrounding ports play a supporting role for Chongqing port. The upper reach ports need to play a supporting role for Chongqing port and consider measures to enhance connections with middle and lower reach ports and promote the port industry. The development strategy for inland ports along the Yangtze River suggests the establishment of direct routes and expansion of the transportation network for South Korean ports and stakeholders. It can suggest expanding the hinterland network and building an efficient transportation system linked with the logistics hub. Through cooperation, logistics efficiency can be enhanced in both regions, which will contribute to strengthening the international position and competitiveness of each port.

A Study on Rationalization of National Forest Management in Korea (국유림경영(國有林經營)의 합리화(合理化)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Choi, Kyu-Ryun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-44
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    • 1973
  • Needless to say, the management of national forest in all countries is very important in view of the national mission and management purposes. Korean national forest is also in particular significant in promoting national economy for the continuous increasing of the demand for wood, conservation of the land and social welfare. But there's no denying the fact that the leading aim of the Korean forest policy has been based upon the conservation of forest resources and recovery of land conservation function instead of improvement of the forest productive capacity. Therefore, the management of national forest should be aimed as an industry in the chain of the Korean national economy. And the increment of the forest productive capacity based on rationalized forest management is also urgently needed. Not only the increment of the timber production but also the establishment of the good forest in quality and quantity are to bring naturally many functions of conservation and other public benefits. In 1908 Korean national forest was historically established for the first time as a result of the notification for ownership, and was divided into two kinds in 1911-1924, such as indisposable national forest for land conservation, forest management, scientific research and public welfare, and the other national forest to be disposed. Indisposable forest is mostly under the jurisdiction of national forest stations (Chungbu, Tongbu, Nambu), and the tother national forests are under custody of respective cities and provinces, and under custody of the other government authorities. As of the end of 1971, national forest land is 19.5% (1,297,708 ha) of the total forest land area, but growing stock is 50.1% ($35,406,079m^3$) of the total forest growing stock, and timber production of national forest is 23.6% ($205,959m^3$) of the year production of total timber in Korea. Accordingly, it is the important fact that national forest occupies the major part of Korean forestry. The author positively affirms that success or failure of the management of national forest controls rise or fall of forestry in Korea. All functions of forest are very important, but among others the function of timber production is most important especially in Korea, that unavoidably imports a large quantity of foreign wood every year (in 1971 import of foreign wood-$3,756,000m^3$, 160,995,000 dollars). So, Korea urgently needs the improvement of forest productive capacity in national forest. But it is difficult that wood production meets the rapid increase of demand for wood to the development of economy, because production term of forestry is long, so national forest management should be rationalized by the effective investment and development of forestry techniques in the long view. Although Korean national forest business has many difficulties in the budget, techniques and the lack of labour due to outflow of rural village labour by development of national economy, and the increase of labour wages and administrative expenses etc. the development of national forest depends on adoption of the suitable forest techniques and management adapted for social and economical development. In this view point the writer has investigated and analyzed the status of the management of national forest in Korea to examine the irrational problems and suggest an improvement plan. The national forestry statistics cited in this study is based on the basic statistics and the statistics of the forest business as of the end of 1971 published by Office of Forestry, Republic of Korea, and the other depended on the data presented by the national forest stations. The writer wants to propose as follows (seemed to be helpful in improvement of Korean national forest management). 1) In the organization of national forest management, more national forest stations should be established to manage intensively, and the staff of working plan officials should be strengthened because of the importance of working plan. 2) By increasing the staff of protection officials, forest area assigned for each protection official should be decreased to 1,000-2,000 ha. 3) The frequent personnel changes of supervisor of national forest station(the responsible person on-the-spot) obstructs to accomplish the consistent management plan. 4) In the working plan drafting for national forest, basic investigations should be carefully practiced with sufficient expenditure and staff not to draft unreal working plan. 5) The area of working-unit should be decreased to less than 2,000 ha on the average for intensive management and the principle of a working-unit in a forest station should be realized as soon as possible. 6) Reforestation on open land should be completed in a short time with a debt of the special fund(a long term loan), and the land on which growing hardwood stands should be changed with conifers to increase productivity per unit area, and at the same time techical utilization method of hardwood should be developed. 7) Expenses of reforestation should be saved by mechanization and use of chemicals for reforestation and tree nursery operation providing against the lack of labour in future. 8) In forest protection, forest fire damage is enormous in comparison with foreign countries, accordingly prevention system and equipment should be improved, and also the minimum necessary budget should be counted up for establishment and manintenance of fire-lines. 9) Manufacture production should be enlarged to systematize protection, processing and circulation of forest business, and, by doing this, mich benefit is naturally given for rural people. 10) Establishment and arrangement of forest road networks and erosion control work are indispensable for the future development of national forest itself and local development. Therefore, these works should be promoted by the responsibility of general accounting instead of special accounting. 11) Mechanization of forest works should be realized for exploiting hinterlands to meet the demand for timber increased and for solving lack of labour, consequently it should promote import of forest machines, home production, training for operaters and careful adminitration. 12) Situation of labour in future will grow worse. Therefore, the countermeasure to maintain forest labourers and pay attention to public welfare facilities and works should be considered. 13) Although the condition of income and expenditure grows worse because of economical change, the regular expenditure should be fixed. So part of the surplus fund, as of the end of 1971, should be established for the fund, and used for enlarging reforestation and forest road networks(preceding investment in national forest).

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Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.