• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact estimation

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Estimation of leeway of jigging fishing vessels by external factors (외력에 의한 채낚기 어선의 표류 추정)

  • Chang-Heon, LEE;Kwang-Il, KIM;Joo-Sung, KIM;Sang-Lok, YOO
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2022
  • Among the fishing vessels operating in the coastal waters, jigging fishing vessels were considered representative vessels engaged only by wind, sea, tide, and external force. Then, a fishing vessel with a length of shorter than 10 m from July 1, 2018 to August 5, 2019 was studied to obtain a drift prediction model by multiple regression analysis. In the correlation analysis between variables for leeway of speed and direction, the speed and direction of tidal seem to be the most affected in coastal waters. Therefore, it should be considered an explanatory variable when conducting drift tests. As a result of multiple regression analysis on the predicted equations of leeway speed and direction due to the external force on the drift of the fishing vessel, p < 0.000 was considered significant in the F-test, but the coefficient of determination was 55.2% and 37.8%. The effect on the predicted leeway speed was in the order of the tidal speed and current speed. In addition, the impact on the predicted leeway direction was in the order of the tidal speed and current speed. ŷ(m/s) = - 0.0011(x1) + 0.9206(x2) + 0.0001(x3) + 0.0002(x4) + 0.0050(x5) + 0.0529(x6) + 0.2457 ŷ(degree) = 0.6672(x1) + 93.1699(x2) + 0.0585(x3) - 0.0244(x4) - 1.2217(x5) + 4.6378(x6) - 0.0837

Climate change impact on seawater intrusion in the coastal region of Benin

  • Agossou, Amos;Yang, Jeong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.157-157
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    • 2022
  • Recent decades have seen all over the world increasing drought in some regions and increasing flood in others. Climate change has been alarming in many regions resulting in degradation and diminution of available freshwater. The effect of global warming and overpopulation associated with increasing irrigated farming and valuable agricultural lands could be particularly disastrous for coastal areas like the one of Benin. The coastal region of Benin is under a heavy demographic pressure and was in the last decades the object of important urban developments. The present study aims to roughly study the general effect of climate change (Sea Level Rise: SLR) and groundwater pumping on Seawater intrusion (SWI) in Benin's coastal region. To reach the main goal of our study, the region aquifer system was built in numerical model using SEAWAT engine from Visual MODFLOW. The model is built and calibrated from 2016 to 2020 in SEAWAT, and using WinPEST the model parameters were optimized for a better performance. The optimized parameters are used for seawater intrusion intensity evaluation in the coastal region of Benin The simulation of the hydraulic head in the calibration period, showed groundwater head drawdown across the area with an average of 1.92m which is observed on the field by groundwater level depletion in hand dug wells mainly in the south of the study area. SWI area increased with a difference of 2.59km2 between the start and end time of the modeling period. By considering SLR due to global warming, the model was stimulated to predict SWI area in 2050. IPCC scenario IS92a simulated SLR in the coastal region of Benin and the average rise is estimated at 20cm by 2050. Using the average rise, the model is run for SWI area estimation in 2050. SWI area in 2050 increased by an average of 10.34% (21.04 km2); this is expected to keep increasing as population grows and SLR.

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A Study on the Business of the Korean OTT in North American Market : Focusing on scenario analysis based on cash flow estimation (국내 OTT 사업자의 해외시장 진출의 사업성 연구 : 현금흐름 추정에 의한 시나리오 분석을 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sangkyu;Park, Chun-il;Wee, Kyeong Woo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.274-287
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    • 2022
  • Competition in the broadcasting market is intensifying as OTT services are spreading. And Korea is positioned as a competent international contents supply base. This can be helpful for the domestic contents production industry. However, it can result in being incorporated as a subcontractor in the global video industry. Therefore, it is necessary for Korean OTT operators to expand their market upto overseas and maintain competitiveness by linking content competitiveness to the sales expansion. This study was conducted to reduce the risk and encourage implementation through feasibility analysis of overseas business of domestic OTT operators. The North American market was selected as a region with high potential through in-depth interviews with experts and literatures review. And it was confirmed that the partnership with local platform is effective. Then, the sales and input costs were estimated, and business was evaluated using the net present value method. Totally 18 scenarios were created using multiple estimates for copyright cost, subscribers, and rate, which are highly uncertain. From the analyses, 8 scenarios were found to be acceptable. And copyright cost has the greatest impact on business success, followed by rates and subscribers.

The Dynamic Effects of Customer Satisfaction on Firm's Profitability and Value (기업의 수익성과 가치에 미치는 고객만족의 동태적 영향)

  • Yi, Youjae;Cha, Kyoung Cheon;Lee, Cheonglim
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2008
  • It is natural that firms would like to increase their profits and value through customer satisfaction (CS). It is therefore important for the academic and practical purposes to investigate the relationship between CS and firm's performance. Previous studies about this relationship have examined mainly the current effect of CS on firm's performance. According to the research that many marketing activities have dynamic effects over time, however, the dynamic effect of CS on firm's performance needs to be tested. Failure to assess the dynamic effects might lead to the underestimation of the impact of CS. This study thus attempts to investigate the dynamic effects of CS on firm's profitability and value by panel data analysis. The results show that CS has dynamic effects on firm's profitability and value. There was a significant improvement in model fit compared with the model examining the current effects only. On the other hand, it was difficult to interpret the estimation results of the alternative model incorporating two lagged variables of CS, and there was also a multicollinearity problem.

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A study on the hydrodynamic forces acting on a GT 4,000 tonnage fishery training vessel in the proximity of semi-circle bank wall (반원 형상의 측벽 부근을 항행하는 4,000톤급 어업실습선에 미치는 유체력에 관한 연구)

  • Chun-Ki LEE;Kyung-Jin RYU;Yoo-Won LEE;Su-Hyung KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.59 no.4
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    • pp.336-343
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    • 2023
  • The aging fishery training vessels from the past have mostly been decommissioned, and many universities are introducing state-of-the-art large fishery training vessels. The purpose of these training vessels is to train marine professionals and above all, safety to prevent marine accidents should be of utmost priority as many students embark on the vessel. This study estimated the impact of the hydrodynamic interaction forces acting on the model vessel (fishery training vessel) from the bank when the vessel pass near the semi-circle bank wall in various conditions through the numerical calculation, especially concerning maneuvering motions of the vessel. For estimation, variables were mainly set as the size of the semi-circle shape, the lateral distance between the bank and the model vessel, and the depth near the bank. As a result, it was estimated that, in order for the model vessel to safely pass the semi-circle bank wall at a speed of 4 knots, the water depth to the vessel draft ratio should be 1.5 or more (approximately 8 m of water depth), and the lateral distance from the semi-circle bank wall should be 0.4 times the model vessel's length (Lpp) or more (a distance of 34 m or more). Under these conditions, it was expected that the model vessel would pass without significantly being affected by the bank wall.

Seasonal Distribution of Major Copepods and Their Feeding in the Coastal Area off Taean Peninsula (태안반도 인근해역 우점 요각류의 계절별 분포와 섭식)

  • Song, Hye-Young;Lee, Doo-Byoul;Park, Chul
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2010
  • Seasonal fluctuations in abundances and ingestion rates of the three major copepods, Acartia hongi, Calanus sinicus and Paracalanus parvus s. l., around the Taean Peninsula were studied along with the estimation of the grazing impacts by them on phytoplankton standing stocks. These three copepods occupied about 50% of total mesozooplankton abundances and about 70% of total copepod abundances. A. hongi dominated in winter and spring while C. sinicus showed only one peak in spring. P parvus s. l. occurred dominantly in summer and fall. The ingestion rates of these three copepods were the highest in spring, when their abundances of eggs and nauplii were more than 10 times greater. Abundances of copepodites of these copepods were also very abundant at this time of high ingestion rates. These increased ingestion rates seemed to be related with reproduction. The grazing impacts by these three copepods were about 5% of the available chlorophyll a in the water column (with the range of 0.7 to 40.5%). The highest value was found in spring.

An analysis of the waning effect of COVID-19 vaccinations

  • Bogyeom Lee;Hanbyul Song;Catherine Apio;Kyulhee Han;Jiwon Park;Zhe Liu;Hu Xuwen;Taesung Park
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.50.1-50.9
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    • 2023
  • Vaccine development is one of the key efforts to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it has become apparent that the immunity acquired through vaccination is not permanent, known as the waning effect. Therefore, monitoring the proportion of the population with immunity is essential to improve the forecasting of future waves of the pandemic. Despite this, the impact of the waning effect on forecasting accuracies has not been extensively studied. We proposed a method for the estimation of the effective immunity (EI) rate which represents the waning effect by integrating the second and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines. The EI rate, with different periods to the onset of the waning effect, was incorporated into three statistical models and two machine learning models. Stringency Index, omicron variant BA.5 rate (BA.5 rate), booster shot rate (BSR), and the EI rate were used as covariates and the best covariate combination was selected using prediction error. Among the prediction results, Generalized Additive Model showed the best improvement (decreasing 86% test error) with the EI rate. Furthermore, we confirmed that South Korea's decision to recommend booster shots after 90 days is reasonable since the waning effect onsets 90 days after the last dose of vaccine which improves the prediction of confirmed cases and deaths. Substituting BSR with EI rate in statistical models not only results in better predictions but also makes it possible to forecast a potential wave and help the local community react proactively to a rapid increase in confirmed cases.

Estimation and Comparison of Regional Innovative Human Capital in China

  • Sangwook Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2024
  • As the level of economic development increases, interest in human capital is also increasing. This paper estimates and compares innovative human capital by region for 31 regions in China between 2002 and 2019. The innovative human capital in this paper consists of education-type human capital, thesis-type human capital, and patent-type human capital. In particular, unlike previous studies, this study assumes that the weight of patent-type human capital and paper-type human capital is higher than that of education-type human capital. This is because patents and thesis will have a relatively greater impact on a region's innovation capacity than simple education background. The analysis results of this paper can be summarized in three points. First, China's regional innovative human capital shows regional disparities. Second, innovative human capital by region is changing dynamically. Third, regional concentration is accelerating, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu. Therefore, the results of this paper emphasize the importance of the role of innovative human capital in regional economic development.

An Indoor Localization Algorithm of UWB and INS Fusion based on Hypothesis Testing

  • Long Cheng;Yuanyuan Shi;Chen Cui;Yuqing Zhou
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1317-1340
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    • 2024
  • With the rapid development of information technology, people's demands on precise indoor positioning are increasing. Wireless sensor network, as the most commonly used indoor positioning sensor, performs a vital part for precise indoor positioning. However, in indoor positioning, obstacles and other uncontrollable factors make the localization precision not very accurate. Ultra-wide band (UWB) can achieve high precision centimeter-level positioning capability. Inertial navigation system (INS), which is a totally independent system of guidance, has high positioning accuracy. The combination of UWB and INS can not only decrease the impact of non-line-of-sight (NLOS) on localization, but also solve the accumulated error problem of inertial navigation system. In the paper, a fused UWB and INS positioning method is presented. The UWB data is firstly clustered using the Fuzzy C-means (FCM). And the Z hypothesis testing is proposed to determine whether there is a NLOS distance on a link where a beacon node is located. If there is, then the beacon node is removed, and conversely used to localize the mobile node using Least Squares localization. When the number of remaining beacon nodes is less than three, a robust extended Kalman filter with M-estimation would be utilized for localizing mobile nodes. The UWB is merged with the INS data by using the extended Kalman filter to acquire the final location estimate. Simulation and experimental results indicate that the proposed method has superior localization precision in comparison with the current algorithms.

Creation of regression analysis for estimation of carbon fiber reinforced polymer-steel bond strength

  • Xiaomei Sun;Xiaolei Dong;Weiling Teng;Lili Wang;Ebrahim Hassankhani
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.509-527
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    • 2024
  • Bonding carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminates have been extensively employed in the restoration of steel constructions. In addition to the mechanical properties of the CFRP, the bond strength (PU) between the CFRP and steel is often important in the eventual strengthened performance. Nonetheless, the bond behavior of the CFRP-steel (CS) interface is exceedingly complicated, with multiple failure causes, giving the PU challenging to forecast, and the CFRP-enhanced steel structure is unsteady. In just this case, appropriate methods were established by hybridized Random Forests (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) approaches on assembled CS single-shear experiment data to foresee the PU of CS, in which a recently established optimization algorithm named Aquila optimizer (AO) was used to tune the RF and SVR hyperparameters. In summary, the practical novelty of the article lies in its development of a reliable and efficient method for predicting bond strength at the CS interface, which has significant implications for structural rehabilitation, design optimization, risk mitigation, cost savings, and decision support in engineering practice. Moreover, the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test was performed to depict each parameter's impact on the target. The order of parameter importance was tc> Lc > EA > tA > Ec > bc > fc > fA from largest to smallest by 0.9345 > 0.8562 > 0.79354 > 0.7289 > 0.6531 > 0.5718 > 0.4307 > 0.3657. In three training, testing, and all data phases, the superiority of AO - RF with respect to AO - SVR and MARS was obvious. In the training stage, the values of R2 and VAF were slightly similar with a tiny superiority of AO - RF compared to AO - SVR with R2 equal to 0.9977 and VAF equal to 99.772, but large differences with results of MARS.