• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.127-127
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• 2021

In order to estimate parameter uncertainty of hydrological models, the consideration of the likelihood functions which provide reliable parameters of model is necessary. In this study, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with informal likelihood functions is used to analyze the uncertainty of parameters of the SURR model for estimating the hourly streamflow of Gunnam station of Imjin basin, Korea. Three events were used to calibrate and one event was used to validate the posterior distributions of parameters. Moreover, the performance of four informal likelihood functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Normalized absolute error, Index of agreement, and Chiew-McMahon efficiency) on uncertainty of parameter is assessed. The indicators used to assess the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation were P-factor (percentage of observed streamflow included in the uncertainty interval) and R-factor (the average width of the uncertainty interval). The results showed that the sensitivities of parameters strongly depend on the likelihood functions and vary for different likelihood functions. The uncertainty bounds illustrated the slight differences from various likelihood functions. This study confirms the importance of the likelihood function selection in the application of Bayesian MCMC to the uncertainty assessment of the SURR model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.9
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• pp.647-655
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• 2019

Although problems such as river management and flood control have occurred continuously in the Imjin and Bukhan river basin, which are shared by South and North Korea, efforts to manage the basin have not been carried out consistently due to limited cooperation. As the magnitude and frequency of hydrologic phenomena are changing due to global climate change, it is necessary to prepare countermeasures for the rainfall variation in the shared river basin area. Therefore, this study was aimed to project future changes in extreme precipitation in South-North Korea shared river basin by applying 13 Global Climate Models (GCM). Results showed that the probability rainfall compared to the reference period (1981-2005) of the shared river basin increased in the future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the rainfall frequency over the 20-year return period was increased in all periods except for the future periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The extreme precipitation in the shared river basin has increased both in magnitude and frequency, and it is expected that the region will have a significant impact from climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.107-111
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• 2009

The parameters in the Horton's model which has well known as typical infiltration model were determined by the use of the optimization technique. It was assumed the initial infiltration capacity in this model was related to the antecedent precipitation per 10 days with linear combination. And both the parameters of the ultimate infiltration capacity and the decay factor were determined uniquely on a basin. Thus the optimal model's parameters representative to a basin were obtained and the Horton's infiltration equations by rainstorm events were determined. The data of ten rainstorm events for this study were observed at the Jeonjeokbigyo station located at the Selmacheon experimental basin that was $8.5\;km^2$ wide in the Imjin river.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.325-336
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• 2023

In August 2022, even though flood damage occurred in the metropolitan area due to heavy rain, drought warnings were issued in Jeolla province, which indicates that the regional drought is intensified recent years. To cope with regarding intensified regional droughts, many studies have been conducted to identify spatial patterns of the occurrence of meteorological drought, however, case studies of spatial clustering for water shortage are not sufficient. In this study, using the estimations of water shortage in the Han River Basin in 2030 of the Master Plans for National Water Management, the spatial characteristics of water shortage were analyzed to identify the hotspot areas based on the Local Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi^*, which are representative indicators of spatial clustering analysis. The spatial characteristics of water shortage areas were verified based on the p-value and the Moran scatter plot. The overall results of for three anayisis periods (S0(1967-1983), S1(1984-2000), S2(2001-2018)) indicated that the lower Imjin River (#1023) was the hotspot for water shortage, and there are moving patterns of water shortage from the east of lower Imjin River (#1023) to the west during S2 compared to S0 and S1. In addition, the Yangyang-namdaecheon (#1301) was the HL area that is adjacent to a high water shortage area and a low water shortage area, and had water shortage pattern in S2 compared to S0 and S1.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.6
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• pp.407-418
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• 2017

Due to geographical features of being close to DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea), the Imjin River basin has difficulties in hydrological observation, and is vulnerable to unexpected flood occurrence. As a countermeasure, Gunnam Flood Control Reservoir construction was planned in 2005. Despite such a structural measure, damages by DPRK's illegal release continues to occur. Futhermore the Imjin River's flow has been decreased due to the effect of continuous drought in the Korean Peninsula since 2012 and DPRK's unilateral storage of water. A new operation method is derived for the Gunnam Flood Control Reservoir in order to cope with drought damages on the Imjin River basin and to ensure efficient response time upon flooding. The operation method maintaining Gunnam Flood Control Reservoir's water level by raising from EL.23.0 m to EL.31.0 m during the flood season for securing reservoir capacity enables to secure additional $14,000,000m^3$ water compared to the existing operation methods. The operation method to store inflow by controlling release to $250m^3/s$ in the early stage of flood has increased 2.66% on average in terms of detention effect of reservoir compared to the existing operation methods. The method enables to secure 19 hours to prepare flood compared to the existing methods.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.11 s.172
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• pp.977-984
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• 2006

The parameters in the Horton's model which has well known as typical infiltration model were determined by the use of the optimization technique. It was assumed the initial infiltration capacity in this model was related to the antecedent precipitation per 10 days with linear combination. And both the parameters of the ultimate infiltration capacity and the decay factor were determined uniquely on a basin. Thus the optimal model's parameters representative to a basin were obtained and the Horton's infiltration equations by rainstorm events were determined. The data of ten rainstorm events for this study were observed at the Jeonjeokbigyo station located at the Selmacheon experimental basin that was $8.5km^2$ wide in the Imjin river.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.353-363
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• 2008

This study aims to set up the appropriate strategies for the transboundary river between South and North Korea. We took the example of Bukhan River which penetrates both Koreas to illustrate this idea, and applied Game Theory to get the solutions. Previous studies have mainly dealt with counterplan in case of confliction. On the contrary, this study has the premise that there could be much more cooperations. The analysis shows that the best choice is to develop the basin together. For example, they can make up development plan for Imjin basin which ranges from North Korea and South. As the result, South Korea can get the stable water volume in the river and North Korea can have the chances for economic revitalization.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.87-97
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• 2024

This study analyzed the water shortage hotspot areas in South Korea using spatial clustering analysis for water shortage estimates in 2030 of the Master Plans for National Water Management. To identify the water shortage cluster areas, we used water shortage data from the past maximum drought (about 50-year return period) and performed spatial clustering analysis using Local Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi*. The areas subject to spatial clusters of water shortage were selected using the cluster map, and the spatial characteristics of water shortage areas were verified based on the p-value and the Moran scatter plot. The results indicated that one cluster (lower Imjin River (#1023) and neighbor) in the Han River basin and two clusters (Daejeongcheon (#2403) and neighbor, Gahwacheon (#2501) and neighbor) in the Nakdong River basin were found to be the hotspot for water shortage, whereas one cluster (lower Namhan River (#1007) and neighbor) in the Han River Basin and one cluster (Byeongseongcheon (#2006) and neighbor) in the Nakdong River basin were found to be the HL area, which means the specific area have high water shortage and neighbor have low water shortage. When analyzing spatial clustering by standard watershed unit, the entire spatial clustering area satisfied 100% of the statistical criteria leading to statistically significant results. The overall results indicated that spatial clustering analysis performed using standard watersheds can resolve the variable spatial unit problem to some extent, which results in the relatively increased accuracy of spatial analysis.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.25-50
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• 1988

The survival of rich evidence of palaeolithic occupation found in the Imjin-Hant'an River basin was possible due to many fortuitous geological conditions provided there. Formation of the basalt plain in a narrow valley system which developed during the late Mesozoic insured the appearance of a basin of sedimentation in which archaeological sites would be preserved with relatively minor post-depositional disturbance. Geomagnetic and K-Ar dating indicates that lava flows occurred during the Brunes Normal Epoch. During and after the process of basin sedimentation, erosion of the plain was confined to the major channel of the present river system which developed along the structural joints formed by the lava flow. Due to characteristic columnar structure and platy cleavage of the basalt bedrock, erosion of the basalt bedrock occurred mainly in vertical direction, developing deep but narrow entrenched valleys cut into the bedrock. Consequently, the large portion of the site area remained intact. Cultural deposits formed on top of the basalt plain were left unmodified by later fluvial disturbances due to changes in the Hant'an River base-level, since they were formed about 20 to 40m above the modern floodplain. Sedimentological evidence of cultural deposits and palynological analysis of lacustrine bed formed in the tributary basin of the Hant'an River indicate that hominid occupation occurred in this basin under rapidly deteriorating climatic conditions. From three thermoluminescence dates, the timing of hominid occupation as represented by 'Acheulian-like' bifaces apparently occur sometime during 45,000 BP. Thus, deposition of cultural layers in this basin approximately coincides with the beginning of the second stadial of the final glacial, during which the Korean Peninsula must have had provided a sanctuary for prolonged human occupation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.139-147
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• 2008

More precise estimation of the bed change, primary cause of flood damage, has been recognized significant for designs of levees and other river facilities. In this study, the long-term bed change was examined as the application of the relatively new Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) Model because there has not been broad verification of the model empirically on river of South Korea. This 2-dimensional model was used to examine the bed change of Pochon Stream Basin, a tributary of Imjin River, where heavy rain damages annually occur. First, in order to verify the model, the simulating period was set from 1986 to 1998 because of the existence of the field measurements. Cross sectional field measurements of 1986 were used for the initial condition and output were compared and analyzed with the observed cross sectional data in 1998. As the results of the verification, the comparison in lateral and streamwise bed level between results from the model and the field measurements showed a reasonable agreement except for the some cases of local scours. However, in terms of the quantitative comparison, the change of the bed elevations for each cross section for 1998 was rather underestimated than that of the field measurements.