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An Analysis on the Conditions for Successful Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Focusing on the Maritime Aspects of Economic Sanctions (대북경제제재의 효과성과 미래 발전 방향에 대한 고찰: 해상대북제재를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Strategy21
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    • s.46
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2020
  • The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

A Comparative Study of Food Habits and Body Satisfaction of Middle School Students According to Clinical Symptoms (일부 남녀 중학생의 건강 관련 임상증상에 따른 식습관과 체헝관심도에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Chung-Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.202-208
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to examine the food habits, knowledge of nutrition and actual conditions of food ingestion of adolescent middle school students according to questionnaire answers. Questionnaires were completed by 524 students, divided into a healthy group (n=289) and an unhealthy group (n=235) according to clinical signs. Further questions were asked of the two groups in the areas of food habits, knowledge of nutrition and nutritional attitude. The results were as follows: Mean age of all subjects was 14, heights for male and female students were 162.0 em, and 157.2 cm, weights were 53.4 kg, and 49.4, respectively. Heights and weights of male students were greater than those of female students. The body mass index (BMI) for male and female students was 20.3 kg/$m^2$ and 20.0 kg/$m^2$, respectively, and all data were within normal ranges. There were no significant differences in mean age, height, weight, and BMI between the healthy and unhealthy groups. There was no significant difference in body image recognition between the two groups, although the ratio of dissatisfaction with their own body shape was significantly higher in the female unhealthy group (46.1%), than in the female healthy group (33.0%) (p<0.05). In the area of the struggle to control body weight during the previous year, the female unhealthy group (59.4%) was higher than the female healthy group (38.4%) (p<0.01). There was no significant difference in the scores between the two groups in the areas of knowledge of nutrition and the nutritional attitude. Meal frequency and meal patterns were showed that having breakfast less than 4x/week was significantly higher in the female unhealthy group (44.0%), than in the female healthy group (30.7%) (p<0.01). Meal frequency for suppers<4x/week showed that the female unhealthy group (18.8%) was also higher than the female healthy group (10.7%). Therefore, the unhealthy group exhibited a higher pattern of missing both breakfast and supper. The male unhealthy group (16.7%) dined out more frequently than the male healthy group (12.3%) (p<0.01), and female unhealthy group also indulged in snacking significantly more frequently than the female healthy group. The unhealthy group also ate only 1 item for meals more frequently than the healthy group and no significant difference. The conclusion of this study is that adolescent Korean middle school students, who showed a higher incidence of clinical symptoms, representing an unhealthy status, missed breakfast and supper, and dined out and indulged in snacking more frequently. Their quality of breakfast and satisfaction of body image were also lower than the healthy group. These results indicated that there is a high correlation between a Korean adolescent's health status, food habits and body image satisfaction. It is recommended that a more intense program of nutritional education and monitoring be introduce into the current Korean middle-school system in order to optimally support and maximize the health potential of the current population of Korean student.

Evaluation of Tuberculosis Activity in Patients with Anthracofibrosis by Use of Serum Levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL(Tuberculous Glycolipid) Antibody (Anthracofibrosis의 결핵활동성 지표로서 혈청 IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$, 그리고 TBGL(tuberculous glycolipid) antibody 측정의 의의)

  • Jeong, Do Young;Cha, Young Joo;Lee, Byoung Jun;Jung, Hye Ryung;Lee, Sang Hun;Shin, Jong Wook;Kim, Jae-Yeol;Park, In Won;Choi, Byoung Whui
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.250-256
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    • 2003
  • Background : Anthracofibrosis, a descriptive term for multiple black pigmentation with fibrosis on bronchoscopic examination, has a close relationship with active tuberculosis (TB). However, TB activity is determined in the later stage by the TB culture results in some cases of anthracofibrosis. Therefore, it is necessary to identify early markers of TB activity in anthracofibrosis. There have been several reports investigating the serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL antibody for the evaluation of TB activity. In the present study, we tried to measure the above mentioned serologic markers for the evaluation of TB activity in patients with anthracofibrosis. Methods : Anthracofibrosis was defined when there was deep pigmentation (in more than two lobar bronchi) and fibrotic stenosis of the bronchi on bronchoscopic examination. The serum of patients with anthracofibrosis was collected and stored under refrigeration before the start of anti-TB medication. The serum of healthy volunteers (N=16), patients with active TB prior to (N=22), and after (N=13), 6 month-medication was also collected and stored. Serum IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ were measured with ELISA kit (R&D system, USA) and serum TBGL antibody was measured with TBGL EIA kit (Kyowa Inc, Japan). Results : Serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$ in healthy volunteers, active TB patients before and after medication, and patients with anthracofibrosis were $640{\pm}174$, $1,611{\pm}2,423$, $953{\pm}562$, and $863{\pm}401$ pg/ml, respectively. The Serum IFN-${\gamma}$ levels were 0, $8.16{\pm}17.34$, $0.70{\pm}2.53$, and $2.33{\pm}6.67$ pg/ml, and TBGL antibody levels were $0.83{\pm}0.80$, $5.91{\pm}6.71$, $6.86{\pm}6.85$, and $3.22{\pm}2.59$ U/ml, respectively. The serum level of TBGL antibody was lower than of other groups (p<0.05). There was no significant difference of serum IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$ and IFN-${\gamma}$ levels among the four groups. Conclusion : The serum levels of IL-2 $sR{\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TBGL antibody were not useful in the evaluation of TB activity in patients with anthracofibrosis. More useful ways need to be developed for the differentiation of active TB in patients with anthracofibrosis.

Analysis of Football Fans' Uniform Consumption: Before and After Son Heung-Min's Transfer to Tottenham Hotspur FC (국내 프로축구 팬들의 유니폼 소비 분석: 손흥민의 토트넘 홋스퍼 FC 이적 전후 비교)

  • Choi, Yeong-Hyeon;Lee, Kyu-Hye
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.91-108
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    • 2020
  • Korea's famous soccer players are steadily performing well in international leagues, which led to higher interests of Korean fans in the international leagues. Reflecting the growing social phenomenon of rising interests on international leagues by Korean fans, the study examined the overall consumer perception in the consumption of uniform by domestic soccer fans and compared the changes in perception following the transfers of the players. Among others, the paper examined the consumer perception and purchase factors of soccer fans shown in social media, focusing on periods before and after the recruitment of Heung-Min Son to English Premier League's Tottenham Football Club. To this end, the EPL uniform is the collection keyword the paper utilized and collected consumer postings from domestic website and social media via Python 3.7, and analyzed them using Ucinet 6, NodeXL 1.0.1, and SPSS 25.0 programs. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the uniform of the club that consistently topped the league, has been gaining attention as a popular uniform, and the players' performance, and the players' position have been identified as key factors in the purchase and search of professional football uniforms. In the case of the club, the actual ranking and whether the league won are shown to be important factors in the purchase and search of professional soccer uniforms. The club's emblem and the sponsor logo that will be attached to the uniform are also factors of interest to consumers. In addition, in the decision making process of purchase of a uniform by professional soccer fan, uniform's form, marking, authenticity, and sponsors are found to be more important than price, design, size, and logo. The official online store has emerged as a major purchasing channel, followed by gifts for friends or requests from acquaintances when someone travels to the United Kingdom. Second, a classification of key control categories through the convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm shows differences in the classification of individual groups, but groups that include the EPL's club and player keywords are identified as the key topics in relation to professional football uniforms. Third, between 2002 and 2006, the central theme for professional football uniforms was World Cup and English Premier League, but from 2012 to 2015, the focus has shifted to more interest of domestic and international players in the English Premier League. The subject has changed to the uniform itself from this time on. In this context, the paper can confirm that the major issues regarding the uniforms of professional soccer players have changed since Ji-Sung Park's transfer to Manchester United, and Sung-Yong Ki, Chung-Yong Lee, and Heung-Min Son's good performances in these leagues. The paper also identified that the uniforms of the clubs to which the players have transferred to are of interest. Fourth, both male and female consumers are showing increasing interest in Son's league, the English Premier League, which Tottenham FC belongs to. In particular, the increasing interest in Son has shown a tendency to increase interest in football uniforms for female consumers. This study presents a variety of researches on sports consumption and has value as a consumer study by identifying unique consumption patterns. It is meaningful in that the accuracy of the interpretation has been enhanced by using a cluster analysis via convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm to identify the main topics. Based on the results of this study, the clubs will be able to maximize its profits and maintain good relationships with fans by identifying key drivers of consumer awareness and purchasing for professional soccer fans and establishing an effective marketing strategy.

Studies on the Directivity of Gokjungkyeong(Kyung Overlapped with Gok) which was specified in Byeokgye-ri, Yangpyeong-gun and the Hwaseo Lee, Hang-ro's Management in Byeokwon Garden (양평 벽계리에 설정된 곡중경(曲中景)의 지향성과 화서(華西) 이항로(李恒老)의 벽원(蘗園) 경영)

  • Jung, Woo-Jin;Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.78-97
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of this study are to examine the context of the establishment of Suhoe Gugok, Byeokgye Gugok Vally, and Nosan Palkyung, which have been established in Seojong-myeon of Yangpyeong-gun, by literature review and site investigations, and to determine the sceneries of Byeokgye scenic site as enjoyed and managed during the period of Hwaseo Lee, Hang-ro(華西 李恒老). The results of the study are as follows. First, Byeokgye Gugok Vally(黃蘗九曲) and Nosan Palkyung(蘆山八景), which have been established after the period of Hwaseo and theorized to have been established around key scenic areas associated with Hwaseo's activities, the analysis results showed that they were collecting sceneries of modern times. The extensive overlap between Byeokgye Gugok Vally and concentrated scenic elements of Suhoe Gugok(水回九曲), and the artificial configuration from the end point of Suhoe Gugok to the beginning point of Nosan Palkyung, reveal the pattern of space conflict and hegemony between Byeokgyes of Suip-ri and Nomun-ri. This is likely to be caused by the conflict between the historicity of the group that enjoyed Byeokgye prior to Hwaso's period and the strong territoriality of the space filled with the image of Hwaseo. Second, Byeokgye Gugok Vally was the secondary spatial system created by selecting the most scenic sites in Suip-ri while expanding the area of Nosan Palkyung. After establishment of Byeokgye Gugok Vally, the spatial identity of the entire Byeokgyecheon area was effectively established. This was a "Hwaseo-oriented" move, including the complete exclusion of the scenic sites from the pre-Hwaseo period such as Cheongseo Gujang and Suhoe Gugok's Letters Carved on the Rock. Consequently, the entire Byeokgyecheon area was reorganized into a cultural scenic site with Heoseo's influence. Third, Fifth, creations of Gugok(九曲) to determine the lineage of the Hwaseo School from Juja(朱子) to Yulgok(栗谷) to Uam(尤庵) to Hwaseo is likely to be an opportunity of birth and external motivation of the establishment of new Gugok Palkyung. In other words, Nosan Palkyung and Byeokgye Gugok Vally are likely to have been created as a reaction to the change of the center of the Hwaseo School to Okgyedong, and with strategic orientation based on the motivation and needs such as creation of the connecting space between Mui Gugok, Gosan Gugok, and Okgye Gugok, and the elevation of Hwaseo's status. Fourth, from the Hwaseo's Li-centric point of view, all revered sites in Beokwon(蘗園) that he managed existed as the spatial creative work to experience the existence of "li" through the objects in the landscape and the boundary of the spirit of emptiness of the aesthetic self. This clearly shows how Byeokgye Gugok Vally or Nosan Palkyung must be defined, and furthermore, appreciated and approached, prior to discussing it as the space associated with Hwaseo. Fifth, Nosan Palkyung was composed of cultural scenic landscapes of Gokjungkyung(曲中景) with eight scenic sites where Hwaseo gave his teachings and spend time around, in the Byeokgye of Nomun-ri area of Byeokgye Gugok Vally. The sceneries is, however, collected by depending on Hwaseo's Letters Carved on the Rock and poetry. Consequently, an inner exuberance of Nosan Palkyung is satisfied beside Byeokgye Gugok Vally, but its conceptual adequacy leaves room for questions.

The Framework of Research Network and Performance Evaluation on Personal Information Security: Social Network Analysis Perspective (개인정보보호 분야의 연구자 네트워크와 성과 평가 프레임워크: 소셜 네트워크 분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Minsu;Choi, Jaewon;Kim, Hyun Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.177-193
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    • 2014
  • Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of electronic commerce and a rising number of interconnected networks, resulting in an escalation of security threats and privacy concerns. Electronic commerce has a built-in trade-off between the necessity of providing at least some personal information to consummate an online transaction, and the risk of negative consequences from providing such information. More recently, the frequent disclosure of private information has raised concerns about privacy and its impacts. This has motivated researchers in various fields to explore information privacy issues to address these concerns. Accordingly, the necessity for information privacy policies and technologies for collecting and storing data, and information privacy research in various fields such as medicine, computer science, business, and statistics has increased. The occurrence of various information security accidents have made finding experts in the information security field an important issue. Objective measures for finding such experts are required, as it is currently rather subjective. Based on social network analysis, this paper focused on a framework to evaluate the process of finding experts in the information security field. We collected data from the National Discovery for Science Leaders (NDSL) database, initially collecting about 2000 papers covering the period between 2005 and 2013. Outliers and the data of irrelevant papers were dropped, leaving 784 papers to test the suggested hypotheses. The co-authorship network data for co-author relationship, publisher, affiliation, and so on were analyzed using social network measures including centrality and structural hole. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 3, which deals with the relationship between eigenvector centrality and performance, all of our hypotheses were supported. In line with our hypothesis, degree centrality (H1) was supported with its positive influence on the researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001). This finding indicates that as the degree of cooperation increased, the more the publishing performance of researchers increased. In addition, closeness centrality (H2) was also positively associated with researchers' publishing performance (p<0.001), suggesting that, as the efficiency of information acquisition increased, the more the researchers' publishing performance increased. This paper identified the difference in publishing performance among researchers. The analysis can be used to identify core experts and evaluate their performance in the information privacy research field. The co-authorship network for information privacy can aid in understanding the deep relationships among researchers. In addition, extracting characteristics of publishers and affiliations, this paper suggested an understanding of the social network measures and their potential for finding experts in the information privacy field. Social concerns about securing the objectivity of experts have increased, because experts in the information privacy field frequently participate in political consultation, and business education support and evaluation. In terms of practical implications, this research suggests an objective framework for experts in the information privacy field, and is useful for people who are in charge of managing research human resources. This study has some limitations, providing opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference in information diffusion according to media and proximity presents difficulties for the generalization of the theory due to the small sample size. Therefore, further studies could consider an increased sample size and media diversity, the difference in information diffusion according to the media type, and information proximity could be explored in more detail. Moreover, previous network research has commonly observed a causal relationship between the independent and dependent variable (Kadushin, 2012). In this study, degree centrality as an independent variable might have causal relationship with performance as a dependent variable. However, in the case of network analysis research, network indices could be computed after the network relationship is created. An annual analysis could help mitigate this limitation.

Double Cropping Productivity of Main Whole-Crop Silage Rice and Winter Feed Crops in the Central Plains of Korea (중부 평야지에서 사료용 벼와 주요 동계사료작물 이모작 시 생산성)

  • Ahn, Eok-Keun;Jeong, Eung-Gi;Park, Hyang-Mi;Jung, Kuk-Hyun;Hyun, Ung-Jo;Ku, Ja-Hwan
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 2019
  • In order to establish an optimal double cropping system to obtain the maximum annual quantity, we investigated the annual productivity of whole-crop silage (WCS) rice, Jowoo (Jw), Yeongwoo (Yw), and Mogwoo (Mw), and winter feed crops (WFC), Italian ryegrass (IRG), Greenfarm (GF), rye Gogu (GU), and triticale Joseong (JS), in paddy fields of the central plains of Korea. From 2016 to 2019, each crop was subjected to two standard cultivation methods: WCS rice and WFC optimal. Using the WCS optimal mode, the average dry matter yield (DMY) of WCS rice, early flowering Jw, was 15.8 tons/ha and 21.0 for the mid-late heading Yw; there was no significant difference compared to the 19.2 tons/ha late-flowering Mw (p<0.01). The WFC were not significantly different between GF (3.2 tons/ha) and GU (4.5) sown on September 23rd, while JS was the highest at 12.6 tons/ha (p<0.001). There was a significant difference in the order of JS (16.6 tons/ha) > GF (10.5) > GU (4.7)(p<0.001) sown on October 11th. For JS sown on October 31st, the DMY was 11.8 tons/ha, which was significantly higher than that of the other two crops (p<0.05). Except for rye GU, DMY was the highest when sown on October 11th. For WFC optimal mode, the average DMY of JS was the highest at 18.3 tons/ha, which was significantly different from that of GF (10.9) and GU (9.6) (p<0.001). The DMY of WCS rice transplanted on May 10th was the highest at 23.0 tons/ha in Mw, which was not significantly different from that of Yw (21.4) but significantly different from that of Jw (15.9) (p<0.05). On transplanting on May 25th, the DMY of Mw was the highest at 24.2 tons/ha; this was not significantly different from that of Yw (20.7), but it was significantly different from that of Jw (18.6) (p<0.05). When transplanted on June 11th, the DMY was 21.3 tons/ha in Yw, which was significantly higher than the DMY of other two cultivars, Jw and Mw (p<0.05). For the WCS rice-WFC double cropping, the total annual DMY was 33.6 tons/ha with the combination of the WCS rice, Yw, and the triticale JS for WCS optimal mode. Meanwhile, the total annual DMY was 39.6 tons/ha with the combination of the triticale JS and the WCS rice, Yw, for WFC optimal mode. In conclusion, the strategies for obtaining the maximum yield of high-quality forage for WCS rice-WFC, WFC-WCS rice double cropping are as follows: 1) cultivation centered on the optimal mode of WFC, and 2) sowing the WFC, triticale JS in mid-October, harvesting the crops around the end of May and transplanting the WCS rice, Yw, in early June to obtain the maximum DMY of 39.6 tons/ha.

Studies on a Factor Affecting Composts Maturity During Composting of SWine Manure (돈분 퇴비화 중 부숙도에 미치는 영향인자 구명)

  • Kim, T.I.;Song, J. I.;Yang, C.B.;Kim, M.K.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to investigate indices affecting composts maturity for swine manure compost produced in a commercial composting facility with air-forced from the bottom. The composting was made of swine manure mixed with puffing rice hull(6: 4) and turned by escalating agitator twice a day. Composting samples were collected periodically during a 45-d composting cycle at that system, showing that indices of Ammonium-N to Nitrate-N ratio were sensitive indicators of composting quality. Pile temperature maintained more than 62$^{\circ}C$ and water contents decreased about 20% for 25days of composting. A great variety and high numbers of aerobic thermophilic heterotropic microbes playing critical roles in stability of composts have been examined in the final composts, sbowing that they were detected $10^8$ to $10^{10}$ $CFUg^{-1}$ in mesophilic bacteria, $10^3$ - $10^4$ in fungi and $10^6$ - $10^8$ in actinomycetes, respectively. The results of this study for detennining a factor affecting compost stability evaluations based on composting steps were as follows; 1. Ammonium-N concentrations were highest at the beginning of composting, reaching approximately 421mg/kg. However Ammonium-N concentrations were lower during curing, reaching approximately l04mg/kg just after 45 day. The ratio between $NH_4-N$ and $NO_3-N$ was above II at the beginning of composting and less than 2 at the final step(45 day). 2. Seed germination Index was dependent upon the compost phytotoxicity and its nutrition. The phytotocity caused the GI to low during the period of active composting(till 25 days of composting time) depending on the value of the undiluted. After 25 days of composting time, the GI was dependent upon compost nutrition. The Gennination index of the final step was calculated at over 80 without regard to treatments. 3. E4: E6 ratio in humic acid of composts was correlatively decreased from 8.86 to 6.76 during the period of active composting. After 25 days of composting time, the E4: E6 was consistently decreased from 6.76 to 4.67($r^2$ of total composting period was 0.95). 4. Water soluble carbon had a tendency to increase from 0.54% to 0.78%during the period of active composting. After 25 days of composting time, it was consistently decreased from 0.78% to 0.42%. Water soluble nitrogen increased from 0.22% to 0.32% during the period of 15 days after initial composting while decreased from 0.32% to 0.21% after 15days of composting. In consequence, the correlation coefficient($r^2$) between water soluble carbon and water soluble nitrogen was 0.12 during the period of active composting mule was 0.50 after 25 days of composting time

Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

A Study on Recent Research Trend in Management of Technology Using Keywords Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 통해 살펴본 기술경영의 최근 연구동향)

  • Kho, Jaechang;Cho, Kuentae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2013
  • Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and technologies, and technological convergence. Therefore, the identification of major trends in technology research and the interdisciplinary knowledge-based prediction of integrated technologies and promising techniques are required for firms to gain and sustain competitive advantage and future growth engines. The aim of this paper is to understand the recent research trend in management of technology (MOT) and to foresee promising technologies with deep knowledge for both technology and business. Furthermore, this study intends to give a clear way to find new technical value for constant innovation and to capture core technology and technology convergence. Bibliometrics is a metrical analysis to understand literature's characteristics. Traditional bibliometrics has its limitation not to understand relationship between trend in technology management and technology itself, since it focuses on quantitative indices such as quotation frequency. To overcome this issue, the network focused bibliometrics has been used instead of traditional one. The network focused bibliometrics mainly uses "Co-citation" and "Co-word" analysis. In this study, a keywords network analysis, one of social network analysis, is performed to analyze recent research trend in MOT. For the analysis, we collected keywords from research papers published in international journals related MOT between 2002 and 2011, constructed a keyword network, and then conducted the keywords network analysis. Over the past 40 years, the studies in social network have attempted to understand the social interactions through the network structure represented by connection patterns. In other words, social network analysis has been used to explain the structures and behaviors of various social formations such as teams, organizations, and industries. In general, the social network analysis uses data as a form of matrix. In our context, the matrix depicts the relations between rows as papers and columns as keywords, where the relations are represented as binary. Even though there are no direct relations between papers who have been published, the relations between papers can be derived artificially as in the paper-keyword matrix, in which each cell has 1 for including or 0 for not including. For example, a keywords network can be configured in a way to connect the papers which have included one or more same keywords. After constructing a keywords network, we analyzed frequency of keywords, structural characteristics of keywords network, preferential attachment and growth of new keywords, component, and centrality. The results of this study are as follows. First, a paper has 4.574 keywords on the average. 90% of keywords were used three or less times for past 10 years and about 75% of keywords appeared only one time. Second, the keyword network in MOT is a small world network and a scale free network in which a small number of keywords have a tendency to become a monopoly. Third, the gap between the rich (with more edges) and the poor (with fewer edges) in the network is getting bigger as time goes on. Fourth, most of newly entering keywords become poor nodes within about 2~3 years. Finally, keywords with high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are "Innovation," "R&D," "Patent," "Forecast," "Technology transfer," "Technology," and "SME". The results of analysis will help researchers identify major trends in MOT research and then seek a new research topic. We hope that the result of the analysis will help researchers of MOT identify major trends in technology research, and utilize as useful reference information when they seek consilience with other fields of study and select a new research topic.