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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Using Viable Eggs to Determine Oviposition Models and Life Table Analysis of Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) (톱다리개미허리노린재의 수정란을 이용한 산란모형과 생명표분석)

  • Ahn, Jeong Joon;Choi, Kyoung San;Koh, Sang Wook
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2019
  • Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius) (Hemiptera: Alydidae) is an economically important insect pest of soybean and fruit trees. We investigated the temperature effects on the adult fecundity and longevity, and determined the parameters of oviposition models and life table at different constant temperatures 15.8, 19.7, 24.0, 27.8, 32.6, 34.0, and $35.5^{\circ}C$. R. pedestris females reproduced successfully from 19.7 to $35.5^{\circ}C$ except $15.8^{\circ}C$. The longevity of R. pedestris was longest at $15.8^{\circ}C$ and it decreased with increasing temperature (76.6 days at $19.7^{\circ}C$ and 20.6 days at $35.5^{\circ}C$). The number of total eggs and viable eggs was highest at $24.0^{\circ}C$ (193.5 and 151.2). Egg hatchability was highest at $27.8^{\circ}C$ (84.0%). We compared the results of oviposition models and life table parameters using both total eggs and viable eggs. The parameter value (c: the maximum reproductive capacity) (190 eggs) of temperature dependent total fecundity model using total eggs was higher than that of the model using viable eggs. When we analyzed the life table parameter the values of net reproductive rate and mean generation time using viable eggs were lower than those using total eggs. The oviposition models and life table analysis using viable eggs will be helpful to understand the real population transition of R. pedestris in agricultural system.

Floristic Composition, Structure, and Dynamics of Koelreuteria paniculata Communities in Daegu City (대구시 자생 모감주나무군락의 종조성, 구조 및 동태)

  • Kim, Jun-Soo;Cho, Joon-Hee;Kim, Hak-Yun;Cho, Hyun-Je
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.2
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 2019
  • To understand the floristic composition, vegetation structure, and population dynamics of Koelreuteria paniculata communities, which are native to Daegu, South Korea, a field survey was conducted in July 2018 using phytosociological and complete enumeration methods. Based on information on vegetation and trees of >5 cm diameter at breast height collected during the field survey, we classified the community types by species composition and analyzed their vegetation strata, relative importance value (MIV), life forms, species diversity, and population structure. The community was divided into the following three types: Ulmus parvifolia-Vitex negundo var. incisa subcommunity, Securinega suffruticosa subcommunity, and Clematis apiifolia community. The vegetation unit system was organized into one community group, two communities, and two subcommunities. Vegetation coverage of the tree layer was >85%, while the herbaceous layer was <10%. MIV of K. paniculata appeared to be extremely high within all vegetation strata, with 94.3 of the tree layer, 81.6 of the subtree layer, 75.5 of the shrub layer, and 60.0 of the herbaceous layer. The species diversity (H') was significantly different among the community types, and the C. apiifolia community (2.062) was approximately four times higher than the S. suffruticosa subcommunity (0.547). The overall representative life form types were "$MM-R_5-D_4{\cdot}D_2-e$,", but there were some differences in the disseminule form among the community types. The population structure of K. paniculata showed the reverse J-shaped distribution with a high density of young individuals and low density of larger individuals among all three community types, and because no plant species within the lower vegetation could replace K. paniculata, it was considered to be a sustainable population.

A Study on the Sustainable Ewha Mural Village in a Viewpoint of Urban Regeneration (도시재생 관점에서 지속가능한 이화동 벽화마을에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, bo-mi;Son, Yong-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Kun;Lee, Hyun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a sustainable village-unit urban regeneration plan for the Ewha Mural Village, where mural artists recovered concrete fences to be followed by some residents damaging the mural paintings. Through a review of the existing literature and a preliminary survey, we derived the urban regeneration factors (environmental sustainability, economic sustainability, and social sustainability) applicable at the village level. After an empirical survey on the residents, we tried to identify various problems of the Ewha Mural Village. Residents selected the factors of accessibility, parking management, diversity of industries, creation of new jobs, community participation of residents for the mural village's activation, and stable living spaces. In the case of Ewha Mural Village, physical environment factors for the residents at the time of construction were not considered and the village was mainly planned using budget-based murals. Since then, the inequality of economic benefits intensified the conflicts among the residents. In addition, public benefits, such as establishing new industries and employing outsiders, were not provided, and these facts appear to have led to an unsustainable murals village, in which the murals that are the protagonists of the village revitalization are being destroyed. Therefore, the urban regeneration of Ewha Mural Village should be designed considering a region where some residential areas can be transformed into tourist areas. In addition, it is essential to employ a win-win method to improve the living environment, such as road maintenance, not only partial economic benefits, such as increased land-value, and to increase resident's value as a common asset within the village itself.

A Comparative Study on the Transition of Purlin Coupling Method of Korean and Chinese Ancient Wooden Constructions (한중 목조건축 도리 결합방식 변천(變遷)에 관한 비교연구)

  • Cha, Ju-hwan
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.22-47
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    • 2014
  • This study was to understand the basic principles of the East Asian wooden structure system research and analysis. The Korea and China ancient architecture internal structure research that the combination of girders and crossbeams position. The ancient wooden structures of eastern Asian countries, Korea and China are not much different from each other in the principles of the wooden architecture structure, combining pillars, purlins and crossbeams. However, it seems that age-division, local-division, national-division differs in detail techniques. China ancient wooden structures combination of purlin and crossbeam, and So-seul Timber(Chinese name: Chashou叉手, Tuojiao 托脚) seems to show differences according to the age of the fulcrum position, detailed approach is also different according to various historical dynasty. Before in the 15th century, Purlin and Crossbeam are coupled to each other, but since the 15th century, seems to have developed a technique combined with each other Girder and Crossbeam and to prevent buckling of the Crossbeam cross-sectional area increased dramatically. For Tuojiao in China Tang-Wudai dynasty(A.D. 618~979), can see that saw the top position Girder and Tuojiao no direct coupling, can be seen as maintaining the safety of the material than the material of the inner wooden structures prevent buckling of the purlin. Korea ancient wooden structures of Goryeo dynasty(A.D. 918~1391), So-seul Timber(Chinese name Tuojiao) why do not to use the fashion? To use Purlin Lower backing material techniques to prevent buckling is a popular trend to stable can be thought of as a preferred way to maintain. I think that with universality beyond the local-division, national-division and the two countries since the 15th century of Korea and China ancient wooden structures detailed mechanism for the purlin buckling. In middle-late Chosen dynasty, The effect of Deotgeolyi- techniques and fleeting beams reduce the purlin buckling that reduces the load transmitted from purlin and crossbeam of how to reduce the load on the roof portion of the architecture fleeting beams used, which of craftsmanship of the Chosen Dynasty building can be referred to as another technique for preventing buckling purlin. This Korea and China ancient architecture purlin beam structure and material So-seul Timber study. Seems to be able to provide a basic research study to restore and designed the old wooden architectures.

Inhibitory Effect of Protaetia brevitarsis seulensis Ethanol Extract on Neuroinflammation in LPS-stimulated BV-2 Microglia (LPS에 의해 활성화된 미세아교세포에서 흰점박이꽃무지 에탄올 추출물의 신경염증 억제 효과)

  • Lee, Hwa Jeong;Seo, Minchul;Lee, Joon Ha;Kim, In-Woo;Kim, Sun Young;Hwang, Jae-Sam;Kim, Mi-Ae
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.29 no.10
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    • pp.1096-1103
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    • 2019
  • Neuroinflammation is mediated by the activation of microglia and has been implicated in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. Therefore, the inhibition of neuroinflammation may be an effective solution to treat these brain disorders. Protaetia brevitarsis seulensis is an insect belonging to the order Coleoptera and inhabits Korea, China, Japan and Siberia. P. brevitarsis seulensis is an edible insect that can be consumed as a protein source for humans. It has been reported that P. brevitarsis seulensis contains useful bioactive substances for hepatoprotection and improving blood circulation, such as indole alkaloids. Microglia cells are the main source of proinflammatory cytokines and nitric oxide (NO) in the central nervous system, which Perform neuroimmune, inflammatory, and other neurobilogical functions. In this study, we investigated the anti-neuroinflammatory effects of P. brevitarsis seulensis ethanol extract (PBE) in activated microglia cells treated with lipopolysaccgarude (LPS, 100 ng/ml). As a result, PBE significantly inhibited NO production without cytotoxicity and decreased the expression levels of inducible NO synthase and cyclooxygenase-2. In addition, the production of inflammatory cytokine secreted by LPS was also reduced by PBE. These results suggest that PBE could be a good source of functional substances to prevent neuroinflammation and neurodegenerative diseases.

A study on Sesi Keesokshi in the late Joseon Period -Focusiong on Serial Sesi Keesokshi- (조선후기 세시기속시(歲時記俗詩) 고찰 -대보름 연작형(聯作型) 세시기속시를 중심으로-)

  • Yang, Jin-jo
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.40
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    • pp.307-323
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    • 2007
  • One of the distinguishing features of late Jeosun s Hanshi (poem in Chinese) is the numerous creation of Yeonjachyung Keesokshi (serial poem on folklore) which describes the folk manner and folk way of life in detail. Keesokshi s subject matter is the folklike in general including local features, geography, climate, local production, humanity, social conducts, and daily labor for living as well. By its material characteristics, Keesokshi reflects detailed life conditions of the society members in each levels, and represents the local customs as well as the folk emotions. Among the several kinds of Keesokshis, a Sesi Keesokshi focuses only in reciting the folk customs on each seasonal festival days, and the great numbers of such serial poems appear during the latter part of the Jeosun Dynasty. Its overall background is the transition of artistic trend which came after many social changes such as expansion of realism, uprising national consciousness, shaken status system, and the rising of 'Jeosun si motives in the Hansi history. Moreover, each writers various experiences and their interests in the reality and critical minds of common people contributed a crucial roll in creation of Sesi Keesokshi. 178 of the 584 remaining serial Sesi Keesokshi are written particularly about the folk customs in The Grand Full Moon Festival (the first full moon of a year by the lunar calendar). These Hanshis widely reflect the common ways of living by directly accepting the seasonal folk customs as the subject matters. Especially, close to the reality, these poems positively express the people's simple vigorous lives and create unrestrained lively image by describing the joys and sorrows of the folk ewistence along with their craving. Also, it is notable to have customs such as 'Shil-Ssa-Um' and 'No-gu-ban-kong-yang' as subjects for its rarity in other literatures.

A study on the detailed treatment techniques of seoktap(stone stupa) in Jeollado province -in the groove for dropping water and the hole for wing bell of the okgaeseok(roof stone)- (전라도 석탑의 세부 기법 고찰 - 옥개석 물끊기홈과 충탁공을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Eun-kyung;Han, Joo-sung;Nam, Chang-keun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.40
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    • pp.271-306
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    • 2007
  • One of the distinguishing features of late Jeosun's Hanshi (poem in Chinese) is the numerous creation of Yeonjachyung Keesokshi (serial poem on folklore) which describes the folk manner and folk way of life in detail. Keesokshi's subject matter is the folklike in general including local features, geography, climate, local production, humanity, social conducts, and daily labor for living as well. By its material characteristics, Keesokshi reflects detailed life conditions of the society members in each levels, and represents the local customs as well as the folk emotions. Among the several kinds of Keesokshis, a Sesi Keesokshi focuses only in reciting the folk customs on each seasonal festival days, and the great numbers of such serial poems appear during the latter part of the Jeosun Dynasty. Its overall background is the transition of artistic trend which came after many social changes such as expansion of realism, uprising national consciousness, shaken status system, and the rising of 'Jeosunsi' motives in the Hansi history. Moreover, each writer's various experiences and their interests in the reality and critical minds of common people contributed a crucial roll in creation of Sesi Keesokshi. 178 of the 584 remaining serial Sesi Keesokshi are written particularly about the folk customs in The Grand Full Moon Festival (the first full moon of a year by the lunar calendar). These Hanshis widely reflect the common ways of living by directly accepting the seasonal folk customs as the subject matters. Especially, close to the reality, these poems positively express the people's simple vigorous lives and create unrestrained lively image by describing the joys and sorrows of the folk existence along with their craving. Also, it is notable to have customs such as 'Shil-Ssa-Um' and 'No-gu-ban-kong-yang' as subjects for its rarity in other literatures.

Spatiotemporal and Longitudinal Variability of Hydro-meteorology, Basic Water Quality and Dominant Algal Assemblages in the Eight Weir Pools of Regulated River(Nakdong) (낙동강 8개 보에서 기상수문·기초수질 및 우점조류의 시공간 종적 변동성)

  • Shin, Jae-Ki;Park, Yongeun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.268-286
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    • 2018
  • The eutrophication and algal blooms by harmful cyanobacteria (CyanoHAs) and freshwater redtide (FRT) that severely experiencing in typical regulated weir system of the Nakdong River are one of the most rapidly expanding water quality problems in Korea and worldwide. To compare with the factors of rainfall, hydrology, and dominant algae, this study explored spatiotemporal variability of the major water environmental factors by weekly intervals in eight weir pools of the Nakdong River from January 2013 to July 2017. There was a distinct difference in rainfall distribution between upstream and downstream regions. Outflow discharge using small-scale hydropower generation, overflow and fish-ways accounted for 37.4%, 60.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Excluding the flood season, the outflow was mainly due to the hydropower release through year-round. These have been associated with the drawdown of water level, water exchange rate, and the significant impact on change of dominant algae. The mean concentration (maximum value) of chlorophyll-a was $17.6mg\;m^{-3}$ ($98.2mg\;m^{-3}$) in the SAJ~GAJ and $29.6mg\;m^{-3}$ ($193.6mg\;m^{-3}$) in the DAS~HAA weir pools reaches, respectively. It has increased significantly in the downstream part where the influence of treated wastewater effluents (TWEs) is high. Indeed, very high values (>50 or $>100mg\;m^{-3}$) of chlorophyll-a concentration were observed at low flow rates and water levels. Algal assemblages that caused the blooms of CyanoHAs and FRT were the cyanobacteria Microcystis and the diatom Stephanodiscus populations, respectively. In conclusion, appropriate hydrological management practices in terms of each weir pool may need to be developed.

First Observational Finding of Submesoscale Intrathermocline Eddy in the East Sea using Underwater Glider (수중글라이더를 활용한 동해 아중규모 중층성 소용돌이 발견)

  • PARK, JONGJIN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.332-350
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    • 2019
  • Zonal hydrographic section measurements at $39.7^{\circ}N$ were conducted between $129.0^{\circ}E$ and $131.3^{\circ}E$ from August 7 to 25 in 2017 using an underwater glider. The glider traveled about 440 km for about 18 days along the 106 line of the regular shipboard measurements in the National Institute of Fishery Science (NIFS) and obtained twice a hydrographic section with high horizontal resolution. Even under the strong East Korea Warm Current with maximum speed of 0.8 m/s across the section, the glider successfully maintained the designated path within an RMS distance of 400 m. By comparing with the NIFS shipboard hydrographic section, it is confirmed that high spatial resolution measurements obtained from a glider were necessary to properly observe front and eddy variability in the East Sea where a typical spatial scale is smaller than the open oceans. From the glider section measurements, a new lens-shaped eddy was found in the thermocline. The lens-shaped anticyclonic eddy had 10~13 km in horizonal width and about 200 m in height like a typical submesoscale eddy resided within the thermocline, which was firstly named as Korea intrathermocline eddy (Keddy). The Keddy has the distinguishing characteristics of a typical intrathermocline eddy, such as a central core with anomalously weak stratification, a convex shaped lens bounded by the stratification anomaly, an interior maximum of velocity at 170 m, no surface appearance of the geopotential field, a small or comparable horizontal width relative to the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation, and the Rossby nubmer of 0.7.