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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Seeking a Multilateral Cooperation Framework for the Inter-Korean Exchange of Intangible Cultural Heritage - Through a Multinational Nomination of a Representative List of Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity - (남북 무형유산 교류 협력의 다자간 협력 틀 모색 - 유네스코 인류무형문화유산 남북 공동 등재 사례 -)

  • Kim, Deoksoon
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.252-269
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    • 2019
  • Since the inauguration of the Kim Jong-un regime in 2012, the safeguarding and management system of cultural heritage in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been changing to a form similar to that of a democratic country's legal system. In addition, the National Authority for the Protection of Cultural Heritage (NAPCH) has continuously recorded and cataloged intangible cultural heritage elements in the DPRK, listing Arirang, kimchi-making, and ssireum on the UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage Representative List. In particular, the multinational nomination of ssireum in October 2018 is symbolic in terms of inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation for peace and reconciliation, raising expectations for the further multinational nomination of the two Koreas' intangible cultural heritage. Currently, South Korea lists 20 items on its Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, three of which are shared by various countries with multinational nominations such as falconry, tug-of-war, and ssireum. However, when comparing the process of applying for multinational nomination in the three elements that follow, it is necessary to discuss whether these cases reflect the nature of multinational nomination. In particular, in the case of ssireum, without a working-level consultation between the two Koreas to prepare an application for a multinational nomination, each applied for a single registration; these applications were approved exceptionally as a multinational nomination by the Intergovernmental Committee under the leadership of the Secretary-General of UNESCO, and no bilateral exchanges have taken place until now. This is symbolic, formal, and substantially similar to the individual listings in terms of the spirit of co-listing on the premise of mutual exchange and cooperation. Therefore, the only way to strengthen the effectiveness of the multinational nomination between the two Koreas and to guarantee the spirit of multinational nomination is to request multilateral co-registration, including the two Koreas. For this, the Korean government needs a strategic approach, such as finding elements for multilateral co-listing; accumulating expertise, capabilities, and experience as a leading country in multilateral co-listing; and building cooperative governance with stakeholders. Besides, to reduce the volatility of inter-Korean cultural exchanges and cooperation depending on political situations and the special nature of inter-Korean relations, measures should be taken toward achieving inter-Korean cultural heritage exchanges and cooperation under a multilateral cooperation system using UNESCO, an international organization.

History and Future Direction for the Development of Rice Growth Models in Korea (벼 작물생육모형 국내 도입 활용과 앞으로의 연구 방향)

  • Kim, Junhwan;Sang, Wangyu;Shin, Pyeong;Baek, Jaekyeong;Cho, Chongil;Seo, Myungchul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2019
  • A process-oriented crop growth model can simulate the biophysical process of rice under diverse environmental and management conditions, which would make it more versatile than an empirical crop model. In the present study, we examined chronology and background of the development of the rice growth models in Korea, which would provide insights on the needs for improvement of the models. The rice crop growth models were introduced in Korea in the late 80s. Until 2000s, these crop models have been used to simulate the yield in a specific area in Korea. Since then, improvement of crop growth models has been made to take into account biological characteristics of rice growth and development in more detail. Still, the use of the crop growth models has been limited to the assessment of climate change impact on crop production. Efforts have been made to apply the crop growth model, e.g., the CERES-Rice model, to develop decision support system for crop management at a farm level. However, the decision support system based on a crop growth model was attractive to a small number of stakeholders most likely due to scarcity of on-site weather data and reliable parameter sets for cultivars grown in Korea. The wide use of the crop growth models would be facilitated by approaches to extend spatial availability of reliable weather data, which could be either measured on-site or estimates using spatial interpolation. New approaches for calibration of cultivar parameters for new cultivars would also help lower hurdles to crop growth models.

Current status, perception and practicability of restaurant staffs related to reducing sodium use in Seongnam, Korea (성남 지역 외식업소의 나트륨 저감화 현황과 종사자의 저감화 실행에 대한 인식 및 실천용이도)

  • Ahn, So-Hyun;Kwon, Jong Sook;Kim, Kyungmin;Lee, Yoonna;Kim, Hye-Kyeong
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: With the increase of going out to eat, reducing the sodium in restaurant foods has a crucial impact on reducing sodium intake. This study aimed to assess the current status and perceptions of restaurant staffs related to reducing sodium use in restaurants. Methods: Restaurant managers and chefs (n = 312) in Seongnam area completed a questionnaire on the current status related to sodium use, the barriers to practice for reducing sodium use, support needs, and the practicability of methods for reducing sodium use in restaurants. Results: The percentage of restaurants in the preaction stage (including the precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages) for reducing sodium use was 79.7%. Logistic regression analysis showed that measuring salinity while cooking was associated with measuring seasoning (OR, 4.761; 95% CI, 2.325 ~ 9.751), action/maintenance stages of behavior change (OR, 2.829; 95% CI, 1.449 ~ 5.525) and providing salinity information of restaurant foods (OR, 6.314; 95% CI, 2.964 ~ 13.45). Maintaining taste and hindering the cooking process were the main barriers to reduce sodium use. The total practicability of actions for reducing sodium was higher in staffs who worked in restaurants that measured seasoning and salinity while cooking (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively). The hardest item to practice was 'purchase foods after comparing sodium content in the nutrition labeling'. 'Avoid serving salt-fermented foods as side dishes', 'serve small portions of kimchi and less salty kimchi', and 'put up promotional materials for reducing sodium intake' were selected as easy items to perform. The majority (82%) was willing to reduce sodium in restaurant foods under the support of local government and they desired the promotion of participating restaurants and education on cooking skills to reduce sodium. Conclusion: Measuring seasoning and salinity while cooking is a meaningful practice that is associated with stages of behavior change and the practicability of actions for reducing sodium. It is necessary to provide support and education with a gradual approach to staffs for reducing sodium in restaurant foods.

Development of remote control automatic fire extinguishing system for fire suppression in double-deck tunnel (복층터널 화재대응을 위한 원격 자동소화 시스템 개발 연구)

  • Park, Jinouk;Yoo, Yongho;Kim, Yangkyun;Park, Byoungjik;Kim, Whiseong;Park, Sangheon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2019
  • To effectively deal with the fire in tunnel which is mostly the vehicle fire, it's more important to suppress the fire at early stage. In urban tunnel, however, accessibility to the scene of fire by the fire fighter is very limited due to severe traffic congestion which causes the difficulty with firefighting activity in timely manner and such a problem would be further worsened in underground road (double-deck tunnel) which has been increasingly extended and deepened. In preparation for the disaster in Korea, the range of life safety facilities for installation is defined based on category of the extension and fire protection referring to risk hazard index which is determined depending on tunnel length and conditions, and particularly to directly deal with the tunnel fire, fire extinguisher, indoor hydrant and sprinkler are designated as the mandatory facilities depending on category. But such fire extinguishing installations are found inappropriate functionally and technically and thus the measure to improve the system needs to be taken. Particularly in a double-deck tunnel which accommodates the traffic in both directions within a single tunnel of which section is divided by intermediate slab, the facility or the system which functions more rapidly and effectively is more than important. This study, thus, is intended to supplement the problems with existing tunnel life safety system (fire extinguishing) and develop the remote-controlled automatic fire extinguishing system which is optimized for a double-deck tunnel. Consequently, the system considering low floor height and extended length as well as indoor hydrant for a wide range of use have been developed together with the performance verification and the process for commercialization before applying to the tunnel is underway now.

On the Characteristic and Representation of Kyodong Island Soundscape (교동도 사운드스케이프의 특성과 재현)

  • Kim, Ji-na;Zoh, Kyung-Jin;Kwon, Byung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2019
  • Soundscapes have the potential to help people experience the historical background and cultural traditions by the scenery of a local area and to be used as a cultural and tourism resource. This concept was first explained in detail by M. Schafer and has been developed as a new way of experiencing landscapes using various senses. This research studied the soundscape of Kyodong Island, the so-called "Island of Peace" and designed new cultural acoustic content for education and tourism. Kyodong Island is located right below the Northern Limit Line and the whole island is in the Civilian Controlled Area. The political and economic status of the island has been changed dynamically by the Korean War and the division of the country. These days, the island needs to realize the vision of the "Island of Peace" in a more creative way using local resources, including its "cold war landscape" and the natural scenery of the region. This research applied the concept of a soundscape to document the island, and to reproduce it in an artistic way. A workshop was conducted to learn concepts and techniques of soundscapes with a sound artist. Listening, recording, conducting interviews, and literature research was used to study the soundscape of the island. After that, this research reconstructed the soundscape of the island through a soundscape composition. The main theme of the composition story was the "Hope and Wish for the Harmony and Peace" to show the vision of the "Island of Peace". The initial sub-theme for the introduction part was "First Encounter with Kyodong Island" arranging the representative soundscape, which could be the first impression of the region. The second sub-theme was "War and Tension" using several soundscapes as a metaphor for the tragedy of the Korean War. The third sub-theme was "Everyday Life of Kyodong Island" which described the energy of the present day, after the wounds of the war have healed. The final sub-theme was "Harmony and Peace" using traditional music and keynote sounds of the region as a reminder of the peaceful past, before the war. The recording files were documented as two types of sound maps. One was a two-dimensional map to show the soundscapes from one point of view, and the other used the online application called "Sound Around You". The final artwork was displayed at an exhibition and uploaded on YouTube to be shared publicly. Through this project, we discovered the potential of soundscapes as a medium to preserve the history and local identity, as well as presenting a new vision. The artwork will be exhibited at historically and culturally meaningful places on the Island to utilize the underused places as local tourist attractions and educational resources.

Development and Effect of Cooperative Consumption Education Program Using Design Thinking in Home Economics Education: Focusing on the Improvement of Cooperative Problem Solving Competency of Middle School Students (디자인씽킹을 활용한 가정교과 협력적 소비 교육 프로그램의 개발 및 적용 효과: 중학생의 협력적 문제해결 역량 향상을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Seon Ha;Park, Mi Jeong
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.85-105
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to develop and implement cooperative consumption education programs using design thinking in middle school home economics education classes to understand the impact on students' cooperative problem solving competency. Accordingly, a cooperative consumption education program based on design thinking was developed according to the ADDIE model, and the evaluation was conducted on a total of 25 students. The results of the study were as follows. First, based on prior research, we developed a consumption education program based on D. school's design thinking process under the theme of 'Creating a Shared School' for the practice of cooperative consumption. As a result of expert validity verification of the teaching/learning course plan and workbook for the eight sessions, the average question was 4.72 (out of 5 points) and the average CVI was 0.93, indicating that the content validity and field suitability were excellent. Second, to summarize the results achieved from the implementation of the cooperative consumption education program, the pre-/post-test using the revised and supplemented cooperative problem-solving competency tool, and the open-ended survey, It was confirmed that the developed program had a significant effect on improving not only the students' knowledge and perceived necessity for cooperative consumption along with the awareness of practice, but also the cooperative problem-solving competency. As a follow-up study, we propose to expand the research to a wider audience, and to further conduct research and develop programs applied with design thinking in home economics curriculum and in consumer competency development. This study confirmed that cooperative consumption education programs using design thinking are effective in improving youth's cooperative problem-solving competency and is meaningful in that they developed consumption education programs under the theme of 'cooperative consumption' in response to changing consumer education needs.

Economic Impact of HEMOS-Cloud Services for M&S Support (M&S 지원을 위한 HEMOS-Cloud 서비스의 경제적 효과)

  • Jung, Dae Yong;Seo, Dong Woo;Hwang, Jae Soon;Park, Sung Uk;Kim, Myung Il
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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    • v.10 no.10
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2021
  • Cloud computing is a computing paradigm in which users can utilize computing resources in a pay-as-you-go manner. In a cloud system, resources can be dynamically scaled up and down to the user's on-demand so that the total cost of ownership can be reduced. The Modeling and Simulation (M&S) technology is a renowned simulation-based method to obtain engineering analysis and results through CAE software without actual experimental action. In general, M&S technology is utilized in Finite Element Analysis (FEA), Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Multibody dynamics (MBD), and optimization fields. The work procedure through M&S is divided into pre-processing, analysis, and post-processing steps. The pre/post-processing are GPU-intensive job that consists of 3D modeling jobs via CAE software, whereas analysis is CPU or GPU intensive. Because a general-purpose desktop needs plenty of time to analyze complicated 3D models, CAE software requires a high-end CPU and GPU-based workstation that can work fluently. In other words, for executing M&S, it is absolutely required to utilize high-performance computing resources. To mitigate the cost issue from equipping such tremendous computing resources, we propose HEMOS-Cloud service, an integrated cloud and cluster computing environment. The HEMOS-Cloud service provides CAE software and computing resources to users who want to experience M&S in business sectors or academics. In this paper, the economic ripple effect of HEMOS-Cloud service was analyzed by using industry-related analysis. The estimated results of using the experts-guided coefficients are the production inducement effect of KRW 7.4 billion, the value-added effect of KRW 4.1 billion, and the employment-inducing effect of 50 persons per KRW 1 billion.

Developing a Practical Course Model for the Personality Education in a Theological University (신학대학교에서 성품 교육을 위한 실천적 코스 모델 개발)

  • Yi, Miah
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.66
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    • pp.75-112
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    • 2021
  • This study is purposed to prepare students in theological universities so that they contribute to their faith community as well as the broader social community in future through developing a practical course model for education of character formation. Facing the challenge of a high-tech revolution being progressed globally in this period, theological seminaries as the Christian-affiliated institute of higher education see the necessity to nurture their learners' competency of holistic personality comprehending cognitive, affective, behavioral, and more spiritual maturity as well as specialty in each subject matter. The holistic character capability of seminarians is closely related not only to their own self-realization, but also social community's well-being. This research had the following content and results. Chapter 1 brought up a subject to educational needs of the holistic character formation in the theological seminaries to meet the rapidly changing times. Chapter 2 considered the importance of character formation in the curriculum of the universities and theological seminaries in the times of high-tech revolution through the literature reviews related to. Chapter 3 clarified the elements of character education to be placed emphasis on theological seminaries and established the way of course planning. Chapter 4, using a course of Christian social education for illustration, described in order the whole process of course planning comprehending the need of planning, description of course concept, establishment and definition of learning outcomes, organization of learning experience(course content), teaching-learning activities, evaluation of learning outcome, and course improvement, which was visualized with the chart of the process of course design. Also, it provided a practical illustration of the conceptual map, an outline of content and an organization of units, and scope-sequence chart. Finally, chapter 5 gave an syllabus example in an integrative and digestive form as the course plan to be distributed to the students, which is the final result produced through the whole process of course planning. This research is intended not to present a overall curriculum planning of the university-level in the theological seminaries, but to develop a course-level curriculum focused on the formation of character. The author hope that this study would be used as a guideline in developing a course model to nurture the capability of the learners' holistic character.

A Study on the Basic Directions for Forest Rehabilitation Programs Considering to Economic and Social Conditions of North Korea (북한의 경제사회적 여건을 고려한 황폐산림복구 기본방향 연구)

  • Park, Kyung Seok;Lee, Seong Youn;Park, So Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.3
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    • pp.423-431
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    • 2011
  • The changes of forest degradation in North Korea have closely been related to political, economic and social conditions at all different times. The deforestation by local people for their livelihood has been accelerated when the recession has been worsened due to the 1990's collapse of socialism and the years of natural disasters, and the fall of the centralized and planned economy system. The serious recession in the 1990's has brought many changes in the North Korean society since the 2000's. Not only the underground economy, but also the market in which personal trades are occurred have been expanded as the distribution system of the planned economy system had fallen. In addition, even many state institutions have also increased timber harvest for export to acquire insufficient foreign currency. Eventually, North Korea felt the limits of utilization of forest resources under socialism then started to seek measures to restore devastated forest, while realizing the need of support from the international society. Therefore, some NGOs of South Korea started to give financial support on building tree nurseries in which seedlings for planting are produced to help the rehabilitation of the degraded forests in North Korea. Therefore, Planning of the basic directions for forest rehabilitation programs considering to economic and social conditions of North Korea are needed based on the successful rehabilitation experience of South Korea in the 1970's. First of all, relationships which was built after collapse of centrally planned economy between districts, businesses and workers must be consider to rehabilitate forests in North Korea. Secondly, due to the nature of forest rehabilitation projects this is very needs voluntary participation of resident for a long time, and then forest rehabilitation projects can create jobs for local resident, they can obtain continuous income on the forest rehabilitation projects field in order to promote resident's work in forest rehabilitation projects. Thirdly, the rate dependence on forests of the residents living must keep the level down by rural development projects going side by side with forest rehabilitation projects. Fourthly, use of exsisting forest management system in North Korea is also needed to ensure administrative power and labor for grand scale plantations in a short period of time. Meanwhile after the success of Forest Rehabilitation, it is very important to improve exsisting forest management system.