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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Biostatic activity of Coix lacryma seed extract on Toxoplasma gondii in macrophages (율무씨 수침 추출물이 대식세포내 톡소포자충에 미치는 영향에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • 소진탁;김숙향
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.197-206
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    • 1996
  • Water extract of Coix locrvmn seeds (Co-Ex) was separated into several components; dissolved with Tris-Cl buffer and the supernatant (WC 1), ammonium sulfate treatment supernatant (WC2) and the pellet nvc31,9AE column chromatography of WC 1 and the peak portions; WC4, WCS and WC6. Murine peritoneal macrophages in DMEM containing 10% heat-inactivated FCS were infected with tachyzoites of ToxopIQsmc gondii, RH strain, in uifo. By adding modulators such as Co-Ex, WC 1,2,3,4.5,6 and LPS or IFN-γ for 24 hrs . toxoplasmastatic activity of macrophages was examined in relation to nitrite production. Nitrite production of macrophages was enhanced especially in the series of WC2, WC1 and the combination sample (WC1 + WC2 + WC3) by order than other components or fractions (WC4, WC5, WC6) tested . Toxoplasmastatic actions such as percentage of the inacrophages infected by T. gonnii and fold increase of T gondii in macrophages showed retroverse relations with the amount of nitrite production; i.e. as nitric oxide (NO) increased the phagocytic index of macrophages and the fold increase of tachyzoites in macrophages decreased . Nitrite (NO-2) production was increased by adding IFN-γ in all cases together with enhancement of biostatic effects. Through the results obtained, it is speculated that some components other than the non-proteinous and defatted components in Coix lacrwmn seeds may contribute to activate macrophages through induction of NO for the biostatic activity.

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Distributions of Endangered Fish Species and Their Relations to Chemical Water Quality-Ecological Stream Health in Geum-River Watershed (금강 대권역 대표 멸종위기 담수어류의 분포 특성 및 이화학적 수질-하천 생태건강도와의 관계분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Jae;An, Kwang Guk
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.986-995
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the distribution of endangered fish species and elucidate their relations on chemical water quality, physical habitat conditions and ecological stream health. The dominant species in the watershed was Pseudopungtungia nigra (Pn), Gobiobotia macrocephala (Gm), Gobiobotia brevibarba (Gb), Liobagrus obesus (Lo), and Iksookimia choii (Ic) in the order. The species of Pn designated as "critical endangered species (I) (CER)", was most widely distributed species among the endangered species, so the designation of the species should be re-evaluated. The endangered species was most popular (4 species, 384 individuals) in the Cho-River region of eighteen lotic regions. According to the analysis of chemical tolerance limits in the habitats with endangered fish species, biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) was analyzed as "very good" (Ia) and "good condition" in the chemical criteria of the Ministry of Environment, Korea. Also, chemical conditions, based on ammonia-N ($NH_{4+}$), total nitrogen (TN), phosphate-P ($PO_{4^-}P$) were much better in the habitat with endangered species (Hw) than the habitat without endangered species (Ho). In the meantime, the species of Ic showed wide ranges on the chemical tolerance, so physical habitat conditions, such as the size of substrate particles (sand) and hydrological regime, were considered as more important factors than the chemical water quality, if the water quality is not largely degraded. The endangered species were also more distributed in the high-order (4-6) streams than the low-order (1-3) streams. The evaluation of ecological stream health, based on multi-metric model of the Index of Biological Integrity (IBI), showed the large difference between the Hw (21.6, fair condition)and Ho (30.5, good condition), indicating that the habitat maintained well chemically and physically had higher distributions of endangered species. Overall, the designation of CER on the Pn should be re-evaluated due to wide-distributions, and the protections from water pollution and the habitat conservations on the endangered species are necessary in the watershed.

Shear bond strength of rebonded orthodontic bracket with flowable resin (Flowable resin을 이용한 브라켓의 재접착 시 전단결합강도에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Woo;Son, Woo-Sung
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.35 no.3 s.110
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    • pp.207-215
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    • 2005
  • This study was performed to evaluate clinical practicality of the rebonding method with flowable resin without the removal of the residual resin on the debonded theeth and debonded bracket base after debonding. The samples of the control group (group I) were rebonded with Transbond XT using the usual rebonding method after the residual resin was removed. At experimental group, the brackets were rebonded with Transbond XT(group II) and CharmFil Flow (group III) without removal of residual resin which is the possibility becoming the index (or rebonding to similar position With initial bonding. The Shear bond Strength of the each group was measured. Patterns of bonding failure were evaluated with modified ARI score. and the shear bond strength according to patterns of bonding failure at experimental group was compared. Between the control group $(6.51\pm1.21MPa)$ and the group II rebonded with Transbond XT $(6.30\pm1.01MPa)$ did not have significantly difference in the shear bond strength (p=0.534), and the shear bond strength of group II was Significantly lower 4han the group III rebonded With CharmFil Flow $(7.29\pm1.54 MPa)$ (P=0.009). At control group, there was not large difference if distribution of bending failure pattern. But at experimental group, bond failure did not occur in interface between the resin-enamel. and bond failure between the resin-bracket, within the resin was distributed similarly. There was not significantly difference in the shear bond strength according to patterns of bonding failure at experimental group (P>0.05) The result of this study showed that the method suggested in this study aid flowable resin as rebonding adhesive could be useful in clinically.

Prediction of Sleep Disturbances in Korean Rural Elderly through Longitudinal Follow Up (추적 관찰을 통한 한국 농촌 노인의 수면 장애 예측)

  • Park, Kyung Mee;Kim, Woo Jung;Choi, Eun Chae;An, Suk Kyoon;Namkoong, Kee;Youm, Yoosik;Kim, Hyeon Chang;Lee, Eun
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: Sleep disturbance is a very rapidly growing disease with aging. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prevalence of sleep disturbances and its predictive factors in a three-year cohort study of people aged 60 years and over in Korea. Methods: In 2012 and 2014, we obtained data from a survey of the Korean Social Life, Health, and Aging Project. We asked participants if they had been diagnosed with stroke, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, arthritis, pulmonary tuberculosis, asthma, cataract, glaucoma, hepatitis B, urinary incontinence, prostate hypertrophy, cancer, osteoporosis, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, or metabolic syndrome. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination for dementia screening in 2012, and depression was assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale in 2012 and 2014. In 2015, a structured clinical interview for Axis I psychiatric disorders was administered to 235 people, and sleep disturbance was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. The perceived stress scale and the State-trait Anger Expression Inventory were also administered. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict sleep disturbance by gender, age, education, depression score, number of coexisting diseases in 2012 and 2014, current anger score, and perceived stress score. Results: Twenty-seven percent of the participants had sleep disturbances. Logistic regression analysis showed that the number of medical diseases three years ago, the depression score one year ago, and the current perceived stress significantly predicted sleep disturbances. Conclusion: Comorbid medical disease three years previous and depressive symptoms evaluated one year previous were predictive of current sleep disturbances. Further studies are needed to determine whether treatment of medical disease and depressive symptoms can improve sleep disturbances.

Pollution Property of Heavy Metal in Goseong Cu Mine Area, Kyungsangnam-do, Korea (경남 고성 구리광산 지역의 중금속 오염특성)

  • Jung, Chul-Hyun;Park, Hyun-Ju;Chung, Il-Hyun;Na, Choon-Ki
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.347-360
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    • 2007
  • In order to evaluate the degree and extent of heavy metal pollution and the environmental impacts of abandoned Cu mines in Goseong-gun, soils and paddies were collected from the mine area and have been analysed for heavy metal contents. The heavy metal contents were much higher in mountain soils than in paddy soils. Total content of heavy metals decreased in order of Cu>Zn>Pb>As>Cr>Cd in mountain soils whereas Zn>Pb>Cu>Cr>As>Cd in paddy soils. The extractable amount of heavy metals by 0.1/1N HCl decreased in order of Cu>Pb>Zn>As>Cd>Cr in mountain soils whereas Pb>Cu>Zn>As>Cd>Cr in paddy soils. Although the extraction ratios were highly various depending on the sampling site, their average values were in order of Cd(16%)>Pb(10%)>Cu(9%)>As(4.5%)>Zn-Cr(${\le}2.5%$). The soils investigated were enriched in heavy metals relative to the averages of earth crust as In order of $As{\ge}Cd$>Pb>Zn>Cu>Cr. Pollution index calculated from total or extractable heavy metals of soils indicated that the heavy metal pollution was restricted to mountain soils around abandoned Cu mines, especially the Samsan I mine. The metal contents of brown rice showed no significantly contaminated level as follows; As $nd{\sim}0.87mg/kg,\;Cd\;0.02{\sim}0.34mg/kg,\;Cu\;1.01{\sim}6.25mg/kg,\;Mn\;13.4{\sim}43.2mg/kg,\;Pb\;0.09{\sim}2.83mg/kg,\;and\;Zn\;16.5{\sim}79.1mg/kg$. From the extraction and dispersion properties of heavy metal with the soil pH ($4.5{\sim}7.8$), it can be deduced the conclusion that the heavy metal pollution is spreading in the study area mainly by the detrital migration of waste ore and gangue minerals rather than the dissolution and circulation of heavy metal.

Effects of Green Tea, Cocoon Hydrolysates and Capsulated Components Mixture on Body Fat and Serum Lipid Composition in College Women in Terms of Supplemented Periods (녹차와 실크 펩타이드 및 캡슐 소재 함유 조성물이 여대생들의 복용 기간별 체지방 및 혈청 지질 성상 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sung-Hee;Cho, Byung-Nam;Hong, I-Jin;Lee, Min-Sook;Jew, Sang-Sup;Kim, Dong-Myung;Jin, Dong-Kyu;Rho, Sook-Nyung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.715-722
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    • 2003
  • This study is to investigate effects of green tea and capsulated components mixture on body fat and serum lipid composition and fat distribution in college women students in terms of supplemented periods. During 3 months of this research, 34 college women students (average age 20.3 yr) were selected as subjects. Nutrient intake was investigated by questionnaire and 24-hr recall method. Anthropolatric assessments of the subjects were investigated by SBIA method (Segmental Bioimpedance Assay, Inbody 3.0). The results were as follows: mean body height was 162.5cm and mean body weight and mean BMI (Body Mass Index, kg/$m^2$) were 57.9kg and 21.9, respectively. Status of carbohydrate intake decreased significantly (p<0.05) and dietary fiber intake increased significantly (p<0.001) after supplementation. WHR (waist-hip ratio) decreased significantly (p<0.05) and body fat and percent body fat decreased significantly after supplementation (p<0.05). Total cholesterol and triglyceride decreased significantly after supplementation (p<0.001). Above results of this study show that green tea, silk peptide and dietary fiber supplementation-added routine diet improves body fat distribution, total cholesterol, triglyceride. Especially, declination of abdominal fat and WHR was notable, since that means diminution of risk factors for obesity and chronic degenerative diseases.

Some Statistical Characteristics of Substorms Under Northward IMF Conditions (북쪽방향 IMF 조건하에서 발생하는 서브스톰의 통계적 특성)

  • Lee, Ji-Hee;Lee, D.Y.;Choi, K.C.;Jeong, Y.
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.451-466
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    • 2009
  • While substorms are known to generally occur under southward IMF conditions, they can sometimes occur even under northward IMF conditions. In this paper, we studied the substorms that occurred in May, 2000 to 2002 to examine some statistical characteristics of the IMF and solar wind associated with northward IMF substorms. We focused on the cases where two or more substorms occurred successively under northward IMF conditions. Also, by checking Sym-H index associated with each of the substorms we determined whether or not there is any association of such northward IMF substorm occurrence with storm times. We also examined statistical properties at geosynchronous altitude in terms of magnetic field dipolarization and energetic particle injection. The following results were obtained. (i) Most of the northward IMF substorms occurred under average solar wind conditions. The majority of them occurred within 2 hrs duration of northward IMF Bz state, but there are also a nonnegligible number of substorms that occurred after a longer duraiton of northward IMF Bz state. (ii) While most of the substorms occurred as isolated from a magnetic storm time, those that occurred in a magnetic storm time show a higher average value of IMF and solar wind than that for the isolated substorms. (iii) About 55% of the substorms were associated with the IMF clock angle that can possibly allow dayside reconnection, and the other 45% were associated with more or less pure northward IMF conditions. Therefore, for the latter cases, the energy input from the solar wind into the magnetosphere should be made by other way than the dayside reconnection. (iv) For most of the substorms, the magnetic field dipolarizations and energetic particle injections at geosynchronous altitude were identified to be generally weak. But, several events indicated strong magnetic field dipolarizations and energetic particle injections.

Serum Phospholipid Fatty Acids in Benign Breast Tumor and Breast Cancer (양성 유방 종양과 유방암 환자의 혈청 인지질 지방산 조성)

  • Shim, Eu-Gene;Ahn, Sei-Hyun;Hwang, You-Jeong;Leekim, Yang-Cha
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.213-220
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    • 2009
  • Studies on the relationship between blood fatty acids and the risk of breast cancer have not yielded definite conclusions. The role of fatty acids in the development and progression of breast cancer is unclear. We conducted a case-control study to determine serum phospholipid fatty acid composition in benign breast tumor and breast cancer. Subjects consisted of 27 benign breast tumor and 68 breast cancer patients, and 28 matched controls. The levels of fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography. Higher arachidonic and palmitic acids were observed in breast cancer patients as compared with control and benign breast tumor patients. The percentage of total saturated fatty acids in breast cancer was higher than in control and benign breast tumor patients. The level of stearic acid was lower in benign breast tumor and breast cancer patients. Saturation index, the ratio of stearic to oleic acid, was lower in benign breast tumor and breast cancer patients compared to the control. Moreover, stearic acid was negatively and arachidonic acid was positively correlated with the cancer stage. In conclusion, our results support that serum phospholipid compositions of specific fatty acids are associated with the risk of benign breast tumor as well as breast cancer. Further studies are necessary to investigate mechanisms linked to the breast cancer etiology.

Spatial Distribution and Dynamics of Vegetation on a Gravel Bar: Case Study in the Bangtae Stream (자갈 하중주에서 식생의 공간 분포 및 동태: 방태천의 사례)

  • Pee, Jung-Hun;Kim, Hye-Soo;Kim, Gyung-Soon;Oh, Woo-Seok;Koo, Bon-Yoel;Lee, Chang-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.215-224
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    • 2013
  • We clarified the background for establishment of vegetation by comparing the spatial distribution maps of vegetation and substrate on a gravel bar in the Bangtae stream located on Inje-gun of Gangwon-do, the central eastern Korea. The total vegetation coverage was higher in the interior and lower in the marginal parts of the gravel bar. Spatial distribution of vegetation on the longitudinal section of the gravel bar tended to be arranged in the order of shrub, subtree, and tree dominated vegetation types from the front (upstream) toward the rear (downstream) parts. Coverage of the herbaceous plants was higher in the central and rear parts and lower in the front and right parts of the gravel bar. Vegetation height was higher in the rear part and became lowered as move toward the front part. Substrate was distributed in the order of boulder, gravel, sand, and boulder from the front toward the rear parts. Ordination of stands based on vegetation data was arranged in the order of annual plant, perennial herb, shrub, and tree dominated vegetation as move from the right to the left parts on the axis I. Species richness was higher in the order of Pinus densiflora community, Phragmites japonica community, Salix gracilistyla community, Fraxinus rhynchophylla community, annual plant dominated vegetation, and Prunus padus for. padus community based on the species rank-abundance curve. The order based on the Shannon's index was some different; diversity of Phragmites japonica community and Salix gracilistyla community, which showed higher dominance degree, were low differently from species richness. In conclusion, it was evaluated that the gravel bar newly established toward the upstream and vegetation dynamics of the gravel bar seemed to follow ecosystem mechanisms of succession. As were shown in the above results, the Bangtae stream corresponded to the upstream and thereby particle size of substrate was big. Therefore, they move by rolling and are accumulated for the upstream. Vegetation types were arranged in the order of woodland, shrub-land and grassland from the rear toward the front parts of the gravel bar and thereby reflected the formation process of the bar. However, the gravel bar is disturbed frequently by not only the running water but also the suspended sand as the dynamic space. Such disturbances cause habitat diversity and consequently led to high biodiversity.