• Atmosphere
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.379-386
• /
• 2010

Impact of global warming on the ocean environment is reviewed based on most recently published publications. The most significant impact of global warming on marine environment is due to the melting of mountain and continental glaciers. Ice melting causes slow down and/or shut down of thermohaline circulation, and makes hypoxic environment for the first time, then makes anoxic with time. This can cause decreasing biodiversity, and finally makes global extinction of animals and plants. Furthermore, global warming causes sea-level rise, soil erosion and changes in calcium carbonate compensation depth (CCD). These changes also can make marine ecosystem unstable. If we emit carbon dioxide at a current rate, the global mean temperature will rise at least $6^{\circ}C$ at the end of this century, as predicted by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). In this case, the ocean waters become acidic and anoxic, and the thermohaline circulation will be halted, and marine ecosystems collapsed.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.72-81
• /
• 2014

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) suggested the three methodology, Tier 1/2/3, considering with the accuracy and difficulty of greenhouse gas emission statistics according to the report determined as the international criterion. In Korea, the existing inventory building was made by the Top-down approach applying with the emission factors for transportation in the entire energy consumption, the emission factors were investigated under the domestic traffic situation which did not reflect by the continuing increase of vehicle and the change of road section. From the suggestion of IPCC, which it is estimated that the emission estimation of $CO_2$ in greenhouse gas emission could be calculated more accurate by the carbon content according to the fuel, the establishment of measures to respond to climate change from the latest greenhouse gas emissions statistics will be able to improve the accuracy of national statistics using monthly or seasonally the analysis of carbon content about the transportation fuels.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
• /
• v.51 no.5
• /
• pp.633-649
• /
• 2016

Exposure to high temperatures during the reproductive period of crops decreases their productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) fifth Assessment Report predicts that the frequency of high temperatures will continue to increase in the future, resulting in significant impacts on the world's food supply. This study evaluate climate change-induced heat stress on four major agricultural crops (rice, maize, soybean, and wheat) at a global level, using the coupled atmosphere-ocean model of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2-AO) and FAO/IIASA Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model data. The maximum temperature rise ($1.8-3.5^{\circ}C$) during the thermal-sensitive period (TSP) from the baseline (1961-1990) to the future (2070-2090) is expected to be larger under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario than under a RCP2.6 climate scenario, with substantial heat stress-related damage to productivity. In particular, heat stress is expected to cause severe damage to crop production regions located between 30 and $50^{\circ}N$ in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, approximately 20% of the total cultivation area for all crops will experience unprecedented, extreme heat stress in the future. Adverse effects on the productivity of rice and soybean are expected to be particularly severe in North America. In Korea, grain demands are heavily dependent on imports, with the share of imports from the U.S. at a particularly high level today. Hence, it is necessary to conduct continuous prediction on food security level following the climate change, as well as to develop adaptation strategy and proper agricultural policy.

• Journal of Life Science
• /
• v.32 no.7
• /
• pp.578-587
• /
• 2022

Korea, as the world's 7^th largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has raised the national greenhouse gas reduction target as international regulations have been strengthened. As it is possible to utilize coastal and marine ecosystems as important nature-based solutions (NbS) for implementing climate change mitigation or adaptation plans, the blue carbon ecosystem is now receiving attention. Blue carbon refers to carbon that is deposited and stored for a long period after carbon dioxide (CO₂) is absorbed as biomass by coastal ecosystems or oceanic ecosystems through photosynthesis. Currently, there are only three blue carbon ecosystems officially recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses. However, the results of new research on the high CO₂ sequestration and storage capacity of various new blue carbon sinks, such as seaweeds, microalgae, coral reefs, and non-vegetated tidal flats, have been continuously reported to the academic community recently. The possibility of IPCC international accreditation is gradually increasing through scientific verification related to calculations. In this review, the current status and potential value of seaweeds, seagrass fields, and non-vegetated tidal flats, which are sources of blue carbon on the east coast, are discussed. This paper confirms that seaweed resources are the most effective NbS in the East Sea of Korea. In addition, we would like to suggest the direction of research and development (R&D) and utilization so that new blue carbon sinks can obtain international IPCC certification in the near future.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.30 no.4B
• /
• pp.337-346
• /
• 2010

Climate change has a huge impact on various parts of the world. This study quantified and analyzed the effects on hydrological behavior caused by climate, vegetation canopy and land use change of Soyanggang dam watershed (2,694.4 $km^2$) using the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). For the 1997-2006 daily dam inflow data, the model was calibrated with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies between the range of 0.45 and 0.91. For the future climate change projection, three GCMs of MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM, and HadCM3 were used. The A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The data was corrected for each bias and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model). Three periods of data; 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) were prepared for future evaluation. The future annual temperature and precipitation were predicted to change from +2.0 to $+6.3^{\circ}C$ and from -20.4 to 32.3% respectively. Seasonal temperature change increased in all scenarios except for winter period of HadCM3. The precipitation of winter and spring increased while it decreased for summer and fall for all GCMs. Future land use and vegetation canopy condition were predicted by CA-Markov technique and MODIS LAI versus temperature regression respectively. The future hydrological evaluation showed that the annual evapotranspiration increases up to 30.1%, and the groundwater recharge and soil moisture decreases up to 55.4% and 32.4% respectively compared to 2000 condition. Dam inflow was predicted to change from -38.6 to 29.5%. For all scenarios, the fall dam inflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge were predicted to decrease. The seasonal vapotranspiration was predicted to increase up to 64.2% for all seasons except for HadCM3 winter.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.105-112
• /
• 2011

Delay reduction of vehicles at the intersection is highly dependent on the signal operation method. Improper traffic operation causes the violation of the traffic regulations and increasing traffic congestion. Delay because of congestion has contributed to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The focus of this paper is to measure the amount of carbon dioxide when the intersection is changed to roundabout. Even though, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) recommends Tier 1 method to measure the amount of greenhouse gas from vehicles, this paper used Tier 3 method because we could use the data of average running distance per each vehicle model. Two signalized intersections were selected as the study area and the delay reductions of roundabout operation were estimated by VISSIM microscopic simulation tool. The control delay for boksu intersection reduced from 28.6 seconds to 4.4 seconds and the KRIBB intersection sharply reduced from 156.4 seconds to 23.6 seconds. In addition, carbon dioxide for two intersections reduced to 646.5 ton/year if the intersection is changed to roundabout. Future research tasks include testing the experiment for networks, as well as for various intersection types.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.410-410
• /
• 2022

기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)에서는 지난해부터 제6차 평가보고서(Sixth Assessment Report, AR6)를 준비하고 있으며, 최근 Working Group II에서 수행한 기후변화 영향, 적응 및 취약성(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) 보고서를 공개하였다. 보고서는 기존의 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 시나리오에 사회경제적 조건을 추가로 고려한 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오를 제시하였고, 세계기후연구프로그램(World Climate Research Programme, WCRP)의 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)에서 제공하는 6단계(Phase 6) 미래 전망 자료를 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 미래 극한 강우량의 통계적 특성을 파악하기 위하여 CMIP6에서 제공하는 General Circulation Models (GCMs) 기반 미래 강우자료를 수집하여 부산광역시를 중심으로 분석하였다. 4개의 SSP (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) 시나리오별로 10개 GCMs의 모의 결과를 사용하였다. Gumbel 분포형과 확률가중모멘트법을 이용하여 미래 극한 강우량을 산정하였고, 현재 모의기간(S0, 1983-2014) 대비 미래 전망기간(S1, 2015-2044; S2, 2041-2070; S3, 2071-2100)의 변화를 재현기간(return period, T)별로 분석하여 제시하였다.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.35 no.3
• /
• pp.243-249
• /
• 2012

Biomass expansion factors, which convert timber volume (or dry weight) to biomass, are used for estimating the forest biomass and accounting for the carbon budget at a regional or national scale. We estimated the biomass conversion and expansion factors (BCEF), biomass expansion factors (BEF), root to shoot ratio (R), and ecosystem biomass expansion factor (EBEF) for Quercus mongolica Fisch. and Quercus variabilis Bl. forests based on publications in Korea. The mean BCEF, BEF, and R for Q. mongolica was 1.0383 Mg/$m^3$ (N = 27; standard deviation [SD], 0.5515), 1.3572 (N = 27; SD, 0.1355), and 0.2017 (N = 32; SD, 0.0447), respectively. The mean BCEF, BEF, and R for Q. variabilis was 0.7164 Mg/$m^3$ (N = 17; SD, 0.3232), 1.2464 (N = 17; SD, 0.0823), and 0.1660 (N = 8; SD, 0.0632), respectively. The mean EBEF, as a simple method for estimating the ground vegetation biomass, was 1.0216 (N = 7; SD, 0.0232) for Q. mongolica forest ecosystems, and 1.0496 (N = 8; SD, 0.0725) for Q. variabilis forest ecosystems. The biomass expansion factor values in this study may be better estimates of forest biomass in Q. mongolica or Q. variabilis forests of Korea compared with the default values given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2008.05a
• /
• pp.1058-1062
• /
• 2008

지구 온난화에 의한 대기 순환의 변화와 이에 따른 수증기 수송 및 강수량의 변화는 전지구 및 지역적인 수문환경의 변화를 초래하므로 장기적인 차원의 수자원 계획 수립에는 반드시 기후 변화에 따른 영향이 제대로 반영되어야 한다. 그러나 개별 모델이 사용하는 역학과정과 물리과정의 모수화 및 분해능이 다르고 이에 따른 모의 결과도 다르게 나타나는 등의 상당한 불확실성이 내재되어 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 관한 정부간 패널인 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)에 참여한 대기해양결합 대순환모델(AOGCMs)이 온실가스 배출 시나리오를 바탕으로 생산한 기온과 강수의 불확실성을 동아시아에 대해 평가하고 이를 바탕으로 미래 기후를 전망하였다. 국립기상연구소 ECHO-G/S 모델과 IPCC 23개 모델의 배출 시나리오(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES) 자료는 20세기(1900-1999년)와 21세기(2000-2099년)의 200년 동안이고, 관측자료는 영국 CRU(Climate Research Unit) 월평균 2m 기온의 30년(1961-1990년) 평균값과 CMAP 월 평균 강수량의 21년간(1979-1990년) 평균값을 이용하였다. 동아시아지역 기온과 강수의 불확실성을 평가하기 위해서 모델과 관측간 편이, 평균제곱근오차(RMSE) 등의 통계적인 방법을 사용하였다. 동아시아 지역의 연평균 기온은 대체로 모델의 기온이 관측보다 적게 모의되는 음의 편이를 나타내고, 강수는 모델이 관측보다 더 크게 모의 되는 양의 편이를 나타냈다. 계절적으로는 여름철 강수와 봄철 기온의 편이가 크게 나타났다. 연평균 및 겨울철 강수와 기온의 RMSE는 비례하는데 이는 기온 모의성능이 좋은 모델이 강수 모의성능도 좋게 나타나는 것을 의미한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.186-186
• /
• 2020

본 연구에서는 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 6차 평가보고서(6th Assessment Report, AR6)에서 제시한 새로운 온실가스 경로(SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)에 따라 산출된 전지구 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 제주도의 미래 강수량 변화를 살펴보고자 한다. 기상청에서 운영하는 기후정보포털(http://www.climate.go.kr/)에서는 6가지 기상요소(평균기온, 최고기온, 최저기온, 강수량, 상대습도, 풍속 등)에 대하여 SSP 시나리오 자료를 제공하고 있다. SSP 시나리오는 SSP1-2.6 저탄소 시나리오(사회 불균형의 감소와 친환경 기술의 빠른 발달로 기후변화 완화, 적응능력이 좋은 지속성장가능 사회경제 구조)와 SSP5-8.5 고탄소 시나리오(기후정책 부재, 화석연료 기반 성장과 높은 인적 투자로 기후변화 적응능력은 좋지만 완화능력이 낮은 사회경제 구조)로 구분되어 제공되고 있다. 또한, 현재의 기후 상태를 모의하는 historical period (1850-2014) 자료와 미래의 기후상태를 모의한 future period (2015-2100) 자료가 있으며, 월별(momthly), 연간(yearly) 자료의 형태로 제공된다. 본 연구를 통하여 새로운 SSP 시나리오를 이용한 제주도 강수량의 미래 변화를 정량적으로 분석하였고, 기후변화에 능동적인 대책을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.